OT: Economic Recovery

[motorb54]

I think I heard mention of a necessary infrastructure project to build a new tunnel from New Jersey to that city across the river...and I don't mean Philadelphia

 

[Jtung230]

It’s circular. We need people to spend but they won’t spend if they don’t have jobs. Companies won’t be hiring because no one will spend. It’s scary. Govt won’t save us here. Next unthinkable to happen is a credit downgrade for US.

 

[tom1944]

Back to the topic at hand

Let’s assume for a minute that this thing can get under control in the next 45-60’days so that most people can get back to work after Memorial Day...even if we still have some social ditsncing happening (the alternative is if this thing requires the current social distancing and stay at home policy for months
, we are going to be in the Great Depression part 2...so that’s a different conversation for a different day)

So what should we be doing to get the economy back on the feet

Here is my take
1.) we need to have legislation passed that allows people to hold off paying rents and mortgage and reschedule payments of them over time. Banks and real estate companies will need help to get through this . Need to keep people afloat and stop foreclosures and defaults. Interest remains low so if we continue to keep interest low, the cost to repay over time isn’t impossible.

2.) we need to keep money flowing to people to keep afloat. Unemployment insurance that’s started is a good start but more is going to be needed. The critical part of getting economic activity gojng again will be if they will spend later. If the unemployed are too behind on their bills, they won’t spend beyond their needs. Need to keep everyone afloat so spending goes up and gets the economy turning

3.) the investment in America infrastructure needs to be the fourth legislation. We need to spend on our future and get people back to work that are displaced. The hard part of this will be getting service oriented people trained to work in non-service roles. Certainly can be done to a certain degree...but not completely.Displaced people however, will be more open to a job change when the alternative is not working ...so there will be a decent movement of people from service to construction, labor and manufacturing.

It’s so much harder to get the economic engine started when the engine is seized. If it stops , we are in bigger long term trouble

We need to keep the engine moving, however slowly, to get it moving faster quicker later...

On #1 how to you limit the damage that does to landlords? Not every property is owned by some mega-corporation. How about the guy who purchased multifamily homes as his retirement plan?

And I am not a landlord I just see this forgiveness on rents and mortgages seems to forget about the people on one side of the equation

 

[Scarlet Shack]

On #1 how to you limit the damage that does to landlords? Not every property is owned by some mega-corporation. How about the guy who purchased multifamily homes as his retirement plan?

And I am not a landlord I just see this forgiveness on rents and mortgages seems to forget about the people on one side of the equation

I clearly said that rent and mortgages are to rescheduled...not to be waived. But difference. And I clearly said the US govenmwnt would need to help banks and landlords here ...

The US government needs to be the bank that keeps it going. Reality is that taxes will need to go up to pay this back for this over times.

 

[LC-88]

Time to grab that overseas corporate pile of cash. Thanks Apple.

 

[RU05]

On #1 how to you limit the damage that does to landlords? Not every property is owned by some mega-corporation. How about the guy who purchased multifamily homes as his retirement plan?

And I am not a landlord I just see this forgiveness on rents and mortgages seems to forget about the people on one side of the equation

I have been, until very recently, a landlord on a very small scale, and I've always left a pretty sizable buffer in case of rent not coming in, which does happen a fair amount due to people moving, or just standard bs that tenants throw at you.

I'm also of the opinion that it is good business practice, as well as just the right thing to do, to give people a break if something comes up.

 

[anvilofstars]

Time to grab that overseas corporate pile of cash. Thanks Apple.

At least they have well paid American employees. The cruise lines getting a bail out when the boats are registered in different countries, they don’t employ Americans, and they rarely dock in American ports is a complete scam.

 

[RUschool]

At least they have well paid American employees. The cruise lines getting a bail out when the boats are registered in different countries, they don’t employ Americans, and they rarely dock in American ports is a complete scam.

The Democrats made sure the bailout bill didn’t include the cruise lines since they don’t pay any US taxes.

 

[rurichdog]

The Democrats made sure the bailout bill didn’t include the cruise lines since they don’t pay any US taxes.

And they're not being allowed to dock in US ports if they have sick and/or dead on board.

 

[RUaMoose_rivals]

I used to hit the bar almost every day after work, kill about 4 or 5 Buds and usually leave a 3 to 5$ tip. Now I’m drinking canned Bud at home for about a buck a beer and no tip. I got to thinking: I can get used to this! And if I’m thinking this way I’m sure others are too. It’s saving me a good amount of coin. Wonder what the long term affects of this shutdown will be. How many ppl will change their habits such as drinking out and eating out?

 

[Jtung230]

I used to hit the bar almost every day after work, kill about 4 or 5 Buds and usually leave a 3 to 5$ tip. Now I’m drinking canned Bud at home for about a buck a beer and no tip. I got to thinking: I can get used to this! And if I’m thinking this way I’m sure others are too. It’s saving me a good amount of coin. Wonder what the long term affects of this shutdown will be. How many ppl will change their habits such as drinking out and eating out?

Unless your buddies or co-workers are coming to your house, bars will be ok.

 

[yesrutgers01]

I used to hit the bar almost every day after work, kill about 4 or 5 Buds and usually leave a 3 to 5$ tip. Now I’m drinking canned Bud at home for about a buck a beer and no tip. I got to thinking: I can get used to this! And if I’m thinking this way I’m sure others are too. It’s saving me a good amount of coin. Wonder what the long term affects of this shutdown will be. How many ppl will change their habits such as drinking out and eating out?

So, are you saying you used to Uber back and forth to work each day? Asking for a friend

 

[T2Kplus10]

See what happens to the market when there is even a hint of good corona news? Why, because everything going on with the market and economy is artificial. We shut down a large portion of the economy for a medical reason. When that medical reason goes away, the V-curve recovery will be epic.

 

[RU4Real]

See what happens to the market when there is even a hint of good corona news? Why, because everything going on with the market and economy is artificial. We shut down a large portion of the economy for a medical reason. When that medical reason goes away, the V-curve recovery will be epic.

You've gone way, way 'round Idiot's Curve.

Millions of people are out of work, virtually all small businesses have shut down, manufacturing has shut down. When this is over, there will have been an entire fiscal quarter with essentially no GDP.

Yeah, that's the sort of thing that breeds "epic recoveries".

Just stop. Stop being a stupid cheerleader and use the half-brain God gave you. At this point you're pretty much an embarrassment to the entire human race.

 

[Jtung230]

See what happens to the market when there is even a hint of good corona news? Why, because everything going on with the market and economy is artificial. We shut down a large portion of the economy for a medical reason. When that medical reason goes away, the V-curve recovery will be epic.

I would agree if we are back in May. I think most businesses will reopen if it's May. But if it's June or July, those businesses are done.

 

[REDRICH65]

I retired 16 years ago and don’t need or want a job. Hope everyone who wants/needs one will get one. What I DO WANT is the Market to recover and not wild inflation with all the trillions being printed.

 

[T2Kplus10]

You've gone way, way 'round Idiot's Curve.

Millions of people are out of work, virtually all small businesses have shut down, manufacturing has shut down. When this is over, there will have been an entire fiscal quarter with essentially no GDP.

Yeah, that's the sort of thing that breeds "epic recoveries".

Just stop. Stop being a stupid cheerleader and use the half-brain God gave you. At this point you're pretty much an embarrassment to the entire human race.

The $2T and I disagree with this entire post. We shall see.
#epic

 

[Jtung230]

I retired 16 years ago and don’t need or want a job. Hope everyone who wants/needs one will get one. What I DO WANT is the Market to recover and not wild inflation with all the trillions being printed.

It’s not inflation you should be worried about. Deflation will kill this market.

 

[RU05]

I would agree if we are back in May. I think most businesses will reopen if it's May. But if it's June or July, those businesses are done.

Or the airlines, I read that one airline is spending $60 million a day, how long can a business, even the biggest and typically very profitable business continue on like that.

And even if June is when things open back up, but many people are still reluctant to fly, or go to concerts, or sporting events, or crowded restaurants, these businesses are going to struggle.

 

[RU05]

I used to hit the bar almost every day after work, kill about 4 or 5 Buds and usually leave a 3 to 5$ tip. Now I’m drinking canned Bud at home for about a buck a beer and no tip. I got to thinking: I can get used to this! And if I’m thinking this way I’m sure others are too. It’s saving me a good amount of coin. Wonder what the long term affects of this shutdown will be. How many ppl will change their habits such as drinking out and eating out?

I think people will tire of sitting home, and will want to go out, but I wonder when they will feel comfortable doing so.

 

[LC-88]

It’s not inflation you should be worried about. Deflation will kill this market.

I don't think we will ever see deflation again. Only way is if they devalue/change the currency. 10 cent candy bars, 50 cent burgers again.

 

[rurahrah000]

The $2T and I disagree with this entire post. We shall see.
#epic

I love it how the fake conservatives who hated the TARP and auto bailouts are excited about the $2T stimulus. What happened to the free market, debt, deficit, etc. I guess Tea Party, Freedom caucus, shut downs of the government over debt/deficit are now an afterthought.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I love it how the fake conservatives who hated the TARP and auto bailouts are excited about the $2T stimulus. What happened to the free market, debt, deficit, etc. I guess Tea Party, Freedom caucus, shut downs of the government over debt/deficit are now an afterthought.

The government decided to close a large part of the economy so they need to pay up and make people/companies whole again.

 

[rurahrah000]

The government decided to close a large part of the economy so they need to pay up and make people/companies whole again.

What about bailing out companies like airlines, Boeing, etc. They are getting rewarded for decade of bad behavior (borrowing money to buy back shares). How does that deter future bad behavior? No free market for them?

 

[T2Kplus10]

What about bailing out companies like airlines, Boeing, etc. They are getting rewarded for decade of bad behavior (borrowing money to buy back shares). How does that deter future bad behavior? No free market for them.

The government essentially shut down air travel. They need to pay up to them as well.

 

[rurahrah000]

The government essentially shut down air travel. They need to pay up to them as well.

It was also not the fault of the auto industry that a bunch of bad apples in Wall Street and banks crashed the economy in 2008. Hey listen, I am fiscally conservative, I am not happy and the precedence we are setting with these bailouts which will eventually lead us to socialism. AOC 2032???

 

[T2Kplus10]

It was also not the fault of the auto industry that a bunch of bad apples in Wall Street and banks crashed the economy in 2008. Hey listen, I am fiscally conservative, I am not happy and the precedence we are setting with these bailouts which will eventually lead us to socialism. AOC 2032???

What happened in 2008 is a different story - apples and oranges.

 

[rurahrah000]

See what happens to the market when there is even a hint of good corona news? Why, because everything going on with the market and economy is artificial. We shut down a large portion of the economy for a medical reason. When that medical reason goes away, the V-curve recovery will be epic.

I am not sure about a "V" shaped recovery. It is going to be while before people are going to want to sit in the middle seat of an airplane or use the trains/bus or sit in a crowded restaurants, etc. Even when the virus dies down, people's behavior is going to change for the foreseeable future.

 

[rurahrah000]

What happened in 2008 is a different story - apples and oranges.

Of course that is true. Every major event occurs under different circumstances, but what is becoming all to common is... bailouts. Worse of all, bailouts are getting more and more expensive.

 

[rurahrah000]

I don't think we will ever see deflation again. Only way is if they devalue/change the currency. 10 cent candy bars, 50 cent burgers again.

I can't see deflation occurring anymore. We just print more money. Inflation, low interest rates are here to stay.

 

[Jtung230]

I can't see deflation occurring anymore. We just print more money. Inflation, low interest rates are here to stay.

Do you think housing prices are going up? Gas is already below $2. We have been in a low rate environment for the last decade and the US national debt is approximately 24 trillion. Have you seen inflation?

 

[Jtung230]

deflation signs are popping up. Today, WTI (oil) May contracts are negative $37 a barrel. Literally paying you to take oil. Hope we don't end up like Japan's lost decades. it will be interesting to see if the millennials will have the consumer habits as baby boomers and Gen X.

 

[albanyknight]

Sorry if this was discussed before but the economy is not coming back anywhere resembling the pre-pandemic economy which was already teetering. GDP, unemployment, an inverted yield curve, declining oil prices, poor leverage, stock buy-backs and people living off of credit was all highly prevelant before the economy shut-down.

The only real option left is a debt jubilee and a reset to fair market value.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Sorry if this was discussed before but the economy is not coming back anywhere resembling the pre-pandemic economy which was already teetering. GDP, unemployment, an inverted yield curve, declining oil prices, poor leverage, stock buy-backs and people living off of credit was all highly prevelant before the economy shut-down.

The only real option left is a debt jubilee and a reset to fair market value.

 

[Joey Bags]

I think by now you treat the stock market as it's own animal as it obviously is no longer a prognosticator of true economic health.

 

[Jtung230]

I think by now you treat the stock market as it's own animal as it obviously is no longer a prognosticator of true economic health.

It's more of a forward projection of true economic health.

 

[Jtung230]

You did see that movie right? Trying to understand if you agree with him or not.

 

[tom1944]

It's more of a forward projection of true economic health.

Its more a place to put money because no where else do you have a chance at any type of return

If you could earn 5% anywhere else the market would tank

 

[Jtung230]

Its more a place to put money because no where else do you have a chance at any type of return

If you could earn 5% anywhere else the market would tank

It really depends on why the risk free rate is moving to 5%. Higher rate could doomed the stock market or point to better days ahead. it's not an inverse relationship.

 

[T2Kplus10]

You did see that movie right? Trying to understand if you agree with him or not.

Making fun of him and his consistent gloom and doom posts. He knows what it means.....in a lighthearted way.