OT: Economic Recovery

[DHajekRC84]

Voluntary packages are fine, it's still the employee's decision regardless of incentives. I've lead a few forced layoff processes for my department. I never designed policies, but had to implement them. Legal and compliance were crystal clear on lines we could not cross and age was definitely one of them.

OK, so looks like you worked for one of the good ones. I'm giving you three very big company examples and backing up Dave's as a 4th. Perhaps it was your experience that was the exception? Was your company a $50billion + corp with a boatload of attornies on staff and billions in reserve to deal with stuff? Or a smaller company that couldn't afford to get it butt sued ?

BTW, sometimes just sometimes the alternatives to taking the deal are not so desirable? There are ways around everything. You should play around on Google to get some additional insights on the subject and get the general feelings from legal folks on the subject. What's THE LAW vs. Whats Practical and common practice.

 

[T2Kplus10]

OK, so looks like you worked for one of the good ones. I'm giving you three very big company examples and backing up Dave's as a 4th. Perhaps it was your experience that was the exception? Was your company a $50billion + corp with a boatload of attornies on staff and billions in reserve to deal with stuff? Or a smaller company that couldn't afford to get it butt sued ?

BTW, sometimes just sometimes the alternatives to taking the deal are not so desirable? There are ways around everything. You should play around on Google to get some additional insights on the subject and get the general feelings from legal folks on the subject. What's THE LAW vs. Whats Practical and common practice.

My experience is via two global pharma companies ($10-20B in annual sales). Both had similar processes, so perhaps it's an industry norm. Lawyers and compliance personnel up the wazoo.

Now I'm a first line exec at one of the massive pharma co's ($50B+ in annual sales). Same process. Haven't had to do anything yet, but I reviewed the relevant policies during my onboarding last year (just for fun ).

 

[Jtung230]

just sold shares of DIA into the rally. Have a few individual stocks I want to pick up after the market sells off again.

 

[MCY]

just sold shares of DIA into the rally. Have a few individual stocks I want to pick up after the market sells off again.

I think that is a good move - sell into the rally's and buy these dips as I believe we are going to go sideways for the next couple of months.

 

[DHajekRC84]

My experience is via two global pharma companies ($10-20B in annual sales). Both had similar processes, so perhaps it's an industry norm. Lawyers and compliance personnel up the wazoo.

Now I'm a first line exec at one of the massive pharma co's ($50B+ in annual sales). Same process. Haven't had to do anything yet, but I reviewed the relevant policies during my onboarding last year (just for fun ).

Maybe that industry values the experience and scientific IQ that others don't cause they (others) don't require the technical learning and education.

My company worshiped the engineers and scientists who drove innovation and production but treated the sales and marketing folks like pull n plug based on results.

 

[RU848789]

Stimulus bill was agreed to by the WH and the Senate. House needs to agree, obviously and put it forward. It's flawed but needed, so let's see how it goes. Based on the trajectory of the outbreak and our fairly tame approach to it so far, relative to other countries which have done far better containing the virus, I'll be very surprised if the "lockdowns" in most states are over before May 1st, as we have up to 6 weeks of solid pain left.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/se...m-OtHszC1lv0DdZ2Su1mltF9LY5feLWuTQE8rQ3ivVLS8

 

[T2Kplus10]

It's looking more and more like a U shape instead of a V shape recovery. The pent up demand will disappear with high unemployment rate. More and more none hourly workers are being laid off at this point.

Bernanke bullish on the V shaped recovery

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also said Wednesday the U.S. economy will experience a quick rebound after a “very sharp” recession. “If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period, however long that may be, then we could see a fairly quick rebound,” Bernanke told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Bernanke added the current situation is “much closer to a major snowstorm” than the Great Depression. He also acknowledged current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell moved quickly to stem the economic blow from the outbreak. “I think the Fed has been extremely proactive, and Jay Powell and his team have been working really hard and gotten ahead of this and shown they can set up a whole bunch of diverse programs that will help us keep the economy functioning during this shutdown period.”

 

[RU4Real]

Bernanke bullish on the V shaped recovery

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also said Wednesday the U.S. economy will experience a quick rebound after a “very sharp” recession. “If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period, however long that may be, then we could see a fairly quick rebound,” Bernanke told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Bernanke added the current situation is “much closer to a major snowstorm” than the Great Depression. He also acknowledged current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell moved quickly to stem the economic blow from the outbreak. “I think the Fed has been extremely proactive, and Jay Powell and his team have been working really hard and gotten ahead of this and shown they can set up a whole bunch of diverse programs that will help us keep the economy functioning during this shutdown period.”

"Much closer to a major snowstorm"?

I'd have to call on the meteorological expertise abundant on this forum, but I'm not recalling a major snowstorm at any point in history that shut down the entire country for a month (or more).

Also, you've glossed over the part where he said, "If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period..."

Look, everybody likes cheerleaders. But face it, you're way too ugly to be a cheerleader.

 

[T2Kplus10]

"Much closer to a major snowstorm"?

I'd have to call on the meteorological expertise abundant on this forum, but I'm not recalling a major snowstorm at any point in history that shut down the entire country for a month (or more).

Also, you've glossed over the part where he said, "If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period..."

Look, everybody likes cheerleaders. But face it, you're way too ugly to be a cheerleader.

Hmm, who to believe? Bernanke or the people in this thread?

Remember, Bernanke solved the financial crisis and is one the nation's leading scholars on the Great Depression. Smart guy!

 

[RU05]

"Much closer to a major snowstorm"?

I'd have to call on the meteorological expertise abundant on this forum, but I'm not recalling a major snowstorm at any point in history that shut down the entire country for a month (or more).

Also, you've glossed over the part where he said, "If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period..."

Look, everybody likes cheerleaders. But face it, you're way too ugly to be a cheerleader.

To be fair he's not saying it is a major snowstorm, which can cripple 4 major cities for a week, he's saying it's closer to that then it is to a 13 year depression.

 

[RU4Real]

Hmm, who to believe? Bernanke or the people in this thread?

Remember, Bernanke solved the financial crisis and is one the nation's leading scholars on the Great Depression. Smart guy!

You're cherry-picking his message to support your own ignorance.

Comprehension isn't your strength.

If we get to 20% unemployment, the recovery that follows will be yet another 'V' that you will never see.

 

[T2Kplus10]

To be fair he's not saying it is a major snowstorm, which can cripple 4 major cities for a week, he's saying it's closer to that then it is to a 13 year depression.

He is saying that what is impacting the economy is a non-economic issue. So once the hysteria is gone, the economy will bounce back very quickly.

 

[RU05]

He is saying that what is impacting the economy is a non-economic issue. So once the hysteria is gone, the economy will bounce back very quickly.

Though he didn't say it, the non-economic issue could cause economic issues.

He's saying it won't attack the economies foundations too much, but, and again, although he did not say it explicitly, he did imply the potential is there for that to happen.

 

[Doctor Worm]

Just disgusting and disgraceful that the Democratic party is blackmailing republicans and the country by demanding the bill include their wishlist socialist agenda as the price for passage.

Ironic post is ironic.

"The bill", as you generically refer to it, is the biggest enactment of socialism in our nation since the New Deal. Well, maybe since Medicare. (Which brings to mind the woman who famously held the placard "Keep your government hands off my Medicare". But that's a story for another day.) And you lament that it was held up for a day or so because of Democrats and their socialist agenda?

Just as there are said to be no atheists in a foxhole, seems like there are no libertarians in a pandemic. Socialism, in moderate doses, ain't so bad. Embrace it.

 

[RU05]

You're cherry-picking his message to support your own ignorance.

Comprehension isn't your strength.

If we get to 20% unemployment, the recovery that follows will be yet another 'V' that you will never see.

What we do know about Trump is he is not afraid to tack a couple trillion onto the dept(not to mention going against medical opinion) if it gets the economy going. So expect him to be very aggressive going fwd.

 

[RUschool]

I was reviewing the stock market trend from the Great Recession and the market dropped from 11,700 in Aug 08 to 8,450 Oct10,08 but it drifted up and down and by March 09 finally bottomed out at 6,540. After Oct 10, 08 the market rose 10% like yesterday but after a couple of weeks it finally went down 5% more.

Just history and use it as you see fit.

 

[RU05]

Expectations that jobless claims will be well over 1 million tomorrow.

Heard one prediction of 4 million.

 

[Ridge 22]

I think there needs to be an aggressive balance here between health and the economy. For the short-term (between now and ~ late April), all efforts need to be focused on keeping people home so that we can slow the spread. Do this very aggressively. Use the next 4-6 weeks to drastically ramp up testing and provide health care facilities with whatever they need while people are listening and there is a window to do so. Beyond that, we need to start to get a large segment of the population back to work. We also need antibody testing so that we can model out what percentage of the population may have been exposed and may already have immunity. The hourly employee with no income now and no savings simply isn't going to comply beyond another few weeks of this and that reality can't be ignored. Use this window to get things under control. We then need to focus on very significant increases in our testing capabilities so that we identify people who are ill early on and we segregate them. We also need to segregate the elderly and at-risk population. Everyone else, back to work. Hopefully those in the healthy population don't get very sick and can be self-managed. Even better, those exposed build-up immunity, which is like fast-tracking a vaccine. Maybe we keep schools closed for the balance of the year to help manage things. I realize parents with kids at home may have difficulty working, but things aren't perfect and we need to do the best we can. Lack of efficiency is certainly better than a locked down economy.

 

[DHajekRC84]

You're cherry-picking his message to support your own ignorance.

Comprehension isn't your strength.

If we get to 20% unemployment, the recovery that follows will be yet another 'V' that you will never see.

20% sustained unemployment or 20% paid 2 month vacations where your jobs will mostly (my guess) be waiting for you when you're cleared to return by Mid May ?

Car manufacturers have been doing this forever. Lay off workforce, have them collect UEI, bring em back to support next prodcution cycle. Yeas, I know this is a much bigger issue but actually not. There are many short term resources and now even more available to support the labor. I don't get the doom and gloom scenerio UNLESS this thing locks the US down into the summer.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Do any of you know if the federal unemployment aid package is only for those filing new unemployment claims or does it also include those already on unemployment. Where I work, we had about 50 people as of Friday, company employees and temps. As of Monday, about ten are left.

 

[RU4Real]

20% sustained unemployment or 20% paid 2 month vacations where your jobs will mostly (my guess) be waiting for you when you're cleared to return by Mid May ?

A lot of small businesses in this country will not survive a 2 month shutdown. They don't have the cash reserves. So while we may not see 20% sustained unemployment, we will see continued high unemployment as a result of those failures. That's the bit that flattens the recovery curve.

 

[RU05]

A lot of small businesses in this country will not survive a 2 month shutdown. They don't have the cash reserves. So while we may not see 20% sustained unemployment, we will see continued high unemployment as a result of those failures. That's the bit that flattens the recovery curve.

There is also the concern that, even if we have covid on the downswing, and the complete shut downs are lifted, people will not be comfortable doing certain things, such as fly, or get into big crowds. I don't think that goes on long term, but certainly this summer that will be a thing.

 

[Jtung230]

Bernanke bullish on the V shaped recovery

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also said Wednesday the U.S. economy will experience a quick rebound after a “very sharp” recession. “If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period, however long that may be, then we could see a fairly quick rebound,” Bernanke told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Bernanke added the current situation is “much closer to a major snowstorm” than the Great Depression. He also acknowledged current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell moved quickly to stem the economic blow from the outbreak. “I think the Fed has been extremely proactive, and Jay Powell and his team have been working really hard and gotten ahead of this and shown they can set up a whole bunch of diverse programs that will help us keep the economy functioning during this shutdown period.”

I 100% agree with Bernanke. I highlighted the most important part. I've been selling into the bounce. Will go back in if I see jobs number stabilized.

 

[DHajekRC84]

A lot of small businesses in this country will not survive a 2 month shutdown. They don't have the cash reserves. So while we may not see 20% sustained unemployment, we will see continued high unemployment as a result of those failures. That's the bit that flattens the recovery curve.

understand but the Bill being passed goes directly to that gap. IF they can get the darn funding out there soon and stop being the congress for once.

 

[RU4Real]

understand but the Bill being passed goes directly to that gap. IF they can get the darn funding out there soon and stop being the congress for once.

Goes directly to what gap?

Wage recovery doesn't make the business whole. It doesn't pay the rent, the taxes, the insurance costs, the payments on physical assets. None of these government payments are worthwhile subsidies for operating revenue.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Goes directly to what gap?

Wage recovery doesn't make the business whole. It doesn't pay the rent, the taxes, the insurance costs, the payments on physical assets. None of these government payments are worthwhile subsidies for operating revenue.

$367 billion in loans for small businesses..here's a clip to address your point and a link to the article..

“They are going to be able to take an SBA loan that will give them two months of payroll and some overhead,” Mnuchin said on Fox Business on Monday. “And if they hire the workers back or they keep their workers hired, the government will forgive that loan.”

Rubio’s office confirmed that SBA loans that are used for “payroll, including employees’ salaries and cash tips, paid sick leave, insurance premiums, mortgage payments, utilities, and other debt obligations,” will be forgiven.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-for-businesses-080739448.html

 

[Jtung230]

The service sector will comeback as long as none hourly workers can keep their jobs. If companies start to trim salary employees, those jobs will not comeback quickly.

 

[RU4Real]

$367 billion in loans for small businesses..here's a clip to address your point and a link to the article..

“They are going to be able to take an SBA loan that will give them two months of payroll and some overhead,” Mnuchin said on Fox Business on Monday. “And if they hire the workers back or they keep their workers hired, the government will forgive that loan.”

Rubio’s office confirmed that SBA loans that are used for “payroll, including employees’ salaries and cash tips, paid sick leave, insurance premiums, mortgage payments, utilities, and other debt obligations,” will be forgiven.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-for-businesses-080739448.html

"Some overhead".

You've made my point for me. 'Preciate that, thanks.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Hmm, who to believe? Bernanke or the people in this thread?

Remember, Bernanke solved the financial crisis and is one the nation's leading scholars on the Great Depression. Smart guy!

Is he not also the person who said subprime is contained before the financial crisis? I’m not going to say what’s gonna happen or not but he’s just one opinion like others and one to take into account for sure but he’s no more a soothsayer than any other expert sometimes they will be right in their calls and sometimes not.

That be said I have been trading during the massive selloffs and think there’s opportunity is some names. But I think it’s hard to predict what the future holds regarding the economy and how quick a recovery is possible. In some sectors maybe others I’m not so sure.

 

[RU05]

$367 billion in loans for small businesses..here's a clip to address your point and a link to the article..

“They are going to be able to take an SBA loan that will give them two months of payroll and some overhead,” Mnuchin said on Fox Business on Monday. “And if they hire the workers back or they keep their workers hired, the government will forgive that loan.”

Rubio’s office confirmed that SBA loans that are used for “payroll, including employees’ salaries and cash tips, paid sick leave, insurance premiums, mortgage payments, utilities, and other debt obligations,” will be forgiven.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-for-businesses-080739448.html

Should be noted that loans need to be paid back. So instead of profits going fwd, or the growing of business, businesses will be paying back an unexpected loan.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Just a headline without details. Sanders and 4 GOP senators threatening to hold up stimulus bill.

EDIT: Headline changed since I posted.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/ber...ten-to-hold-up-coronavirus-stimulus-bill.html

 

[JonathanAlan]

It's a mistake to simply lay this at the feet of Senate Democrats. There's plenty of stupid Republican pork that got stuffed into that bill, as well. Abstinence education in public schools? Really? You think that's how we should be spending our time (and money) in the present environment?

You're right. Blame should also go to House democrats, led by one of the most irresponsible, dumb and arrogant persons to ever serve as Speaker, Nancy Pelosi. To have attempted to lard this stimulus with such moronic things as Corporate Board diversity requirements, airplane emissions limits , same day voter registration and other totally unrelated amendments to a Wuhan virus was absolutely irresponsible and unworthy of any party that claims to put country ahead of party.

 

[DHajekRC84]

"Some overhead".

You've made my point for me. 'Preciate that, thanks.

No I didn't. You dont want to agree or accept its way more than what you said.
Never mind. You won't Alliw yourself to be even partly incorrect. Now you can debate the meaning of "some".

I give up . I choose to be more positive. Carry on.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Should be noted that loans need to be paid back. So instead of profits going fwd, or the growing of business, businesses will be paying back an unexpected loan.

Should be noted I even BOLD HIGHLIGHTED the part where it said the exact opposite but I guess you choose to respond without either reading the direct comments from Rubio who lead this part of the bill or not understanding the term "forgiven".

 

[RU4Real]

Should be noted I even BOLD HIGHLIGHTED the part where it said the exact opposite but I guess you choose to respond without either reading the direct comments from Rubio who lead this part of the bill or not understanding the term "forgiven".

Show your work. I've read 6 different accounts of the bill in the last 15 minutes and none of them talk about small business loans being "forgiven".

 

[RU05]

Show your work. I've read 6 different accounts of the bill in the last 15 minutes and none of them talk about small business loans being "forgiven".

At daily presser, Mnuchin just backed that up.

Is it everything that Rubio said from 1984's quote above(which I do admit I glazed over) I don't but it does sound like a good amount of it will be forgiven, IF they pay their employee's.

 

[RU4Real]

At daily presser, Mnuchin just backed that up.

Is it everything that Rubio said from 1984's quote above(which I do admit I glazed over) I don't but it does sound like a good amount of it will be forgiven, IF they pay their employee's.

I'm real interested to see what the final language looks like. I trust Mnuchin about as much as I trust his boss.

 

[RU05]

I'm real interested to see what the final language looks like. I trust Mnuchin about as much as I trust his boss.

I'd like to see the details as well but that does seem to be something Dem's would be in favor of, so I buy it.

 

[Jtung230]

Back to the topic. Big numbers tomorrow and Friday. Will be very telling.

 

[RU05]

During presser Trump noted that if another big package was needed down the road he would be for it.

He is going to do whatever he can to keep the economy going. And I don't necessarily mean that in a positive way(sorry if that borders on the political).