OT: 2025 Coaching Carousel
- Thread starter rutgersguy2
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From The Athletic Until Saturday email:
"Hot-seat Coach of the Week: the generally unlikable Brian Kelly. At a certain threshold of fan-vs.-coach toxicity, you cannot categorically rule out a change, 34-14 record be damned. At 5-3 with trips to Alabama and Oklahoma still to go, LSU is in that zone, if the endlessly audible boos and all of social media are any indicators."
"Just noting Jonathan Smith is 8-12 at Michigan State (and 0-5 this year in the Big Ten) after MSU gave up 276 rushing yards to No. 25 Michigan in a 31-20 rivalry loss at home. Not fair to pin it all on Smith, but this feels like a mess within a mess."
Thoughts-Kelly is a dead man walking. He is a much more unlikeable version of Franklin. MSU would be hasty to fire Smith. Young QB is developing, but could see them firing Smith.
MSU's problem is defense. They are actually below Rutgers in points per game given up.
"Hot-seat Coach of the Week: the generally unlikable Brian Kelly. At a certain threshold of fan-vs.-coach toxicity, you cannot categorically rule out a change, 34-14 record be damned. At 5-3 with trips to Alabama and Oklahoma still to go, LSU is in that zone, if the endlessly audible boos and all of social media are any indicators."
"Just noting Jonathan Smith is 8-12 at Michigan State (and 0-5 this year in the Big Ten) after MSU gave up 276 rushing yards to No. 25 Michigan in a 31-20 rivalry loss at home. Not fair to pin it all on Smith, but this feels like a mess within a mess."
Thoughts-Kelly is a dead man walking. He is a much more unlikeable version of Franklin. MSU would be hasty to fire Smith. Young QB is developing, but could see them firing Smith.
MSU's problem is defense. They are actually below Rutgers in points per game given up.
I don’t pay attention to UConn unless it’s brought but it looks like he’s done fine there. It’s patterns that matter and taking account the situation a coach is in, not a specific loss or win.
One more win somewhere and he’d have 3 bowls season out of 4 and for UConn out in the wilderness as an independent that’s fine.
If Kelly were to get fired, couldn’t rule out a reunion with Tate and Zinn. If he wants to coach someone will hire him.
Think he would be met with a lot of opposition. Maybe he is a Chris Ash that wins.
They are absolutely smart how they schedule. They really play few P4 teams. And that’s exactly what they should do
It's no Mora UConn bandwagon for me and will be entering the Ryan Carty Blue Hen house
Not taken at the Princeton library it seems , but is that his idea of a disguise, football genius that he unquestionably is ?Looks like this guy is in for a promotion!
Between Florida, Penn State and LSU, there’s going to be some insane paydays when these jobs are filled
Probably right because these guys never learn lol. They just make the same mistakes over and over.
Lane Kiffin is the one a couple are salivating over.
Earlier in the thread I gave a framework of a perfectly fair to both parties deal. Can take you from the mid singles up to mid teens depending on performance in any given year. Plenty of reachable incentives. No outs for anything except the NFL. Rollover provision to keep the deal going if you want. Has to be done on the first deal for a coach and if they push back, keep looking. Someone qualified will believe in themselves and accept. It’s not like these P4 jobs aren’t desirable and it’s not peanuts even on the low end.
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This is hilarious, with all this firings or potential firings. After the tens of millions of dollars spent firing coaching staffs, who are all these schools going to hire? And what about the tens of millions required to hire the new staffs? My take is that 80% or more of these firings don’t work out.
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Buying stock in Jimmy Sexton and Trace Armstrong. They rep pretty much every big time coach. They’re having a field day with this
Here's what people are missing. There are plenty of perfectly competent football coaches. Fewer who can manage a large organization successfully through all its ,missions.. recruiting, fundraising, etc.
What is very rare and very valuable is not the football coaches.. but the schools with excellent support for athletics. Schools without that can hire the best coaches and get nowhere.
Is it possible for the perfect coach to meet the ideal AD and perfect University President and build a donor base and reputation? Sure. It is so rare... hen's teeth rare. Consider Indiana.. they have been a Big Ten teams a long long time. A losing Big Ten football team but a winning basketball team. And a beautiful campus, etc etc. Are they turning basketball supporters into football supporters? I think so. But I have no specific proof. They had most of what they needed before finding the ideal coach.
Now, what Cignetti is doing appears to be uniquely successful, so I have no idea how many other candidates for the job could have achieved similar results.. perhaps there are no others.
What I suspect is true is the following: LSU knows it has everything it needs to succeed because others have won national championships there,. So when they hire a big name coach and he fails.. they move on. There are other programs in similar positions. But Rutgers and so many others are nowhere near that state. They do not have everything even a highly competent coach needs. Rutgers has some very good elements.. weight rooms, practice facilities, academic help, etc... but they do not have the MONEY that these other programs can give coaches to go out and hire top assistants, to recruit better, to pay NIL. Even the revenue sharing is less than our direct competitors because our revenue is less.. our stadium is smaller, etc.
So we talk about hiring someone to do better than Schiano. But what we should be doing is demand Tate and Zinn build the support structure that can elevate the program to a level where we can attract the right coach. And while they do that we can see what Schiano can do with added support structure.
If we cannot do that, then we are a farm team... because that is what is happening in this world of NIL and easy transfers. Go AAA Knights!
Cignetti doesn't take the Indiana job without a committment of significant NIL The # I saw was at least $13 million.
This year maybe because of revenue sharing. Everyone’s ability to pay players has increased because of it.
Last year I don’t believe it for IU and most average schools. I just posted from an Athletic article that LSU spent 18M on their current roster, more than triple of last year. If LSU was spending 5-6M last year, I don’t believe most average schools were spending double or triple or even in the same vicinity of it. People just throw out numbers without knowing if there’s any truth to them or if it’s misleading or whatnot or take into account from what sources these numbers originate.
From the article:
The Tigers began the season No. 9 in the AP poll, as Kelly embraced the expectations for his team in Year 4. Kelly said that LSU’s roster cost $18 million to assemble, which more than tripled the financial commitment made to last year’s team.
Also there was a quote from CC in an article I posted where he said “give me average resources and I can win”
I thought there was a video where he said he asked for $10M and they exceeded his expectations by far. Ahh.. I cannot find the $10M reference, but for 2024 he had $13M and said that exceeded expectations.. linky
OL coach Davis is a Baton Rouge local who played for Oklahoma. Interesting that he seems to be protected by LSU execs. I wonder what Tate and Zinn could say about this? Reporters?
That article is December 2024 and I’m guessing in preparation for 2025. This year I could believe it because of rev share, last year no. But I’ve seen that database before and I don’t know how accurate it is. From Kelly himself it was 18M this year and that’s more than triple of last year. These numbers don’t match for LSU for either this year or last so then it makes me wonder how accurate they are in general. This is why I say source matters and I won’t take the word of just any place.
look.. we cannot measure what was raised in 2023 FOR 2024 but that doesn't matter. Indiana had, arguably, an even more favorable schedule than we did in 2024.. and by all accounts, they raised $13M in 2024, which matched Penn State.
Don't get all in the weeds about sources when that is not the point. You do believe the $13M, right? Even if it is in the ballpark, they are clearly spending it well.
While looking for NIL comments and figures I also came across people saying CG's assistants have been with him for 5 years and he insisted his contract include nice pay bumps for them because he does not want to lose them. That was a Fox Saturday show from Indiana and it was said by Urban Meyer. I found a video of CG himself talking about NIL, mentioning he lost an all-conference player and that hurts but easy transfer allowed him to bring in 30 players. You know NIL money helped with that.. that ain't cheap.
Why does it seem that you are working so hard to avoid including NIL funding into calculations about program support and replacing coaches?
Indiana 2024
Non-conference schedule
- Games: FIU, Western Illinois, Charlotte
- Location: All home games
- Difficulty: Easy
- Home games: Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan, Purdue
- Road games: UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan State, Ohio State
- Difficulty: More difficult, especially due to road games against ranked opponents like Ohio State and Michigan State
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This year with rev share I could believe it for IU and others. Last year with just 3rd party NIL only, I don't believe it. Talking about sources for info is not in the weeds because if people are going to cite this number or that number and act like everyone had this huge pool of NIL pre revenue share, the places you get that info should be reliable. Most of these sites, including this one, just try to make estimates with algorithms or whatever. It's known evidence like coaching contracts or pro contracts. I wish it was that transparent then yea we could have a good measuring stick rather than assumptions.
My pushback isn't on NIL not being important or helpful. It's on this "woe is me" we've got nothing and as if pretty much everyone else in the P4 has this huge pool of money. I don't subscribe to that or buy it. It's not to say that we have a lot but more to say most others don't have anything special either. Plus if we have no money, how did we increase GS's salary from 4M/yr avg to 7M/yr avg. How did the football operating budget go from 49M in 2023 to 64M in 2024...6th highest in the B10 and 12th highest in the country last year.
Also yea CC is an all star coach at the moment. He wasn't when he got hired. He was a very good coach doing great work at G5 and lower levels throughout his career and worthy of the opportunity. But he wasn't really the super hot name of the moment (like say Sumrall now or Herman, Napier, etc...of previous years) before IU hired him. Herman got Texas, Napier got Florida, that's the kind of job the hot name of the moment gets. If CC was so sought after back then, he wouldn't have had to wait until 63 to get a P4 job and it wouldn't have been at the losingest program in the P4. He was making 600K recently boosted from 400K and was finally given an opportunity at the P4 for 4M. He hadn't has his big payday in his career yet either. Which side do you think has more leverage given that. Now he's got plenty of leverage but back when he was hired, I'd say no more than your typical coach who may want this or that within reason from the school that hires them. Of course a school wanting their coach to do well will try their best to accommodate. I don't know about you have to have all this or else. JF or BK this year might have that kind of pull after all their career success or Kiffin now as well but CC back then I don't buy it regardless of what is said.
Also as far as bringing players, roster turnover is very usual these days. I mentioned Charles Huff who wasn't renewed at Marshall after having won the Sun Belt went to Southern Miss. He brought 21 players from that Sun Belt championship team Marshall with him to Southern Miss. Southern Miss was 1-11 last year and so far are 5-2. Does Southern Miss have oodles of money to throw at those players. I'm sure they got some money but often a big part of it is players follow their coaches. I posted an article with quotes about Southern Miss not having money but they still came for Huff and to play for him and thinking he'll use them to their fullest ability. I'd say the same for JMU players and CC last year. This year they probably got more money to those same players but last year, I'm not so sure.
From an article I was reading about him:
Fit and relationships are still paramount and particularly so at the Group of Five level for athletes. That’s the case for USM, which has hauled in multiple transfers that are not only instant-starters, but high-level college football players.
The top two additions so far have been former Marshall quarterback Braylon Braxton and Thundering Herd cornerback Josh Moten. Both were sought-after players, but chose USM for fit more than money, by choosing to follow their coach.
“We were up against a lot, but what was nice about it is (NIL) isn’t what was driving the decision for these kids,” Boehme said. “It was more about who they were playing for, what they just did and wanting to get to most out of their time on the field. We’re not in a position to be buying guys that don’t want to be here for the right reasons.”
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LSU OC is out as you'd expect. BK resisted letting him go so now that he's gone the OC Joe Sloan is out too.
Firing a coach that's 20 games over .500 and having the resources to pay him over 50 million is first world problem.
34-14 at LSU, not to mention his prior career track record...if he wants to coach, I tend to think someone will hire him.
IDK, see below. He's no Lance Leipold!
He's a total jerk, and given his Notre Dame and LSU performance, regardless of record, he was not getting done what he was hired to get done.
Solid piece by Forde. Cignetti is indeed a unicorn.
The next-closest in those terms is Doc Kennedy at Kansas (23). Kennedy won 83.1% of his games with the Jayhawks from 1904 to ’10—not exactly the modern era.
Bear Bryant (24) performed immediate turnarounds at both Alabama and Kentucky. The Crimson Tide went from 4-14-2 in the two years before his arrival to 12-6-3 in his first two seasons, an upgrade of 34.5%; the Wildcats went from 5–14 to 15–6, an upgrade of 45.1%.
By comparison, Cignetti took over an Indiana program that went 7–17 in 2022 and ’23 and has improved the winning percentage by 61.1%
www.si.com
The next-closest in those terms is Doc Kennedy at Kansas (23). Kennedy won 83.1% of his games with the Jayhawks from 1904 to ’10—not exactly the modern era.
Bear Bryant (24) performed immediate turnarounds at both Alabama and Kentucky. The Crimson Tide went from 4-14-2 in the two years before his arrival to 12-6-3 in his first two seasons, an upgrade of 34.5%; the Wildcats went from 5–14 to 15–6, an upgrade of 45.1%.
By comparison, Cignetti took over an Indiana program that went 7–17 in 2022 and ’23 and has improved the winning percentage by 61.1%
Forde-Yard Dash: Curt Cignetti Is Doing What No Power-Conference Coach Ever Has
The Indiana coach is winning games at a higher percentage than the school’s historic level by the widest margin in college football history.
www.si.com
Very good record at LSU but not what he's there for and paid highly for, championships are expected. I kind of think though it's going to be harder there than it was for previous coaches because of portal/NIL and talent spreading around compared to their times at the helm. More parity makes it hard to create those old LSU/Alabama/UGA teams.IDK, see below. He's no Lance Leipold!
He's a total jerk, and given his Notre Dame and LSU performance, regardless of record, he was not getting done what he was hired to get done.
As to ND, I don't agree. People forget what ND had fallen to for the time after Holtz. They hadn't done much of anything and people thought their academic standards and such would keep them off the big stage. Kelly showed no ND isn't off the big stage and made champ games and playoffs and had high level results there. He resurrected them towards what they had been.
I think Freeman has built on that and taken it up another level but Kelly is the one who brought them back to relevance.
I think a job in the northeast or midwest like Wisconsin/MSU would better suit him. He also has an eye for coaches...Elko, Lea and Freeman were all hired by him.
He had a LOT of turnover in coaches at LSU. I could see another delusional fanbase giving him a shot. Might be a good fit at PSU or Florida.