OADS or 3-4 Year Players?

[dukephysics]

Hey, mulit-year fans, consider this. The starting 5's of the Final Four teams in 2015 were composed as follows: Duke - 3 frosh., 1 soph., 1 sen; Michigan State 1 frosh., 1 soph., 1 jr., 2 sr.; Wisconsin: 2 soph., 1 jun., 2 sen.; Kentucky: 2 frosh., 2 soph., 1 Jr.
60% are underclassmen (frosh or soph) and frosh outnumber seniors 6 to 5.
This was the last year Duke won a title, so if we are going to cherry-pick years to make a point, perhaps we should pick this year.
In any given year there are a dozen or so teams that have a legit shot to win a title. There are only 2 (Duke and Kentucky) who are loading up on OAD players (and as others have said, Duke doesn't do it every year contrary to what some might believe). So when a team that doesn't have a bunch of freshmen playing wins a title, it is NOT evidence that the model that Duke and Kentucky are using is wrong. You may not like the model, and that is totally fine. But Villanova winning last night says NOTHING about Duke's approach and whether or not we can win with the guys we are bringing in. We will, again, be one of the dozen or so teams with a legit chance of winning (in fact, I just saw the "way too early" Vegas line that has Duke as favorites next year).
I'll say it again, we did not lose to Kansas because of our lack of veteran play. Bags needed more touches and Gary/Grayson shot poorly. Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson would not have changed that.

 

[KingOfBBN]

Not all one and dones are the same. Some classes are much weaker. That’s when the issue becomes a big problem (not referring to Duke here) but take Kentucky for example. The freshmen in 2012? Fantastic group. In the 2018 season? Not at all.

You gotta have some vets to go with these one and dones. Can’t be done with all freshmen. It has never happened.

 

[Liftee]

I agree with everything above. Perhaps Coach K's willingness to allow freshmen to play major minutes and not wait in line enables OAD's to be showcased and maximizes their draft status. But that's what attracts them in the first place. An unintended consequence of a meritocracy.

 

[dukedevilz]

Y’all realize they’re one and done because they perform well enough to get picked in the first round. Sounds like y’all rather regular freshmen that aren’t that good. Then you’ll complain about not doing winning. At this point if we change philosophy you’re looking at 3 years of mediocre at best play. Our bench players were at the bottom of the top 100 list coming out of high school. That’s what our team would look like for about two years. Then complaints would never stop.

I think most people are jealous of programs like Villanova and Kansas that have really, really good upperclassmen. Villanova had Brunson, a junior, and Bridges, a red-shirt Junior, both make the All-American teams this year (Brunson was NPOY). Last year, Josh Hart made 1st Team All-American as a Senior. DiVincenzo looks like he might have an All-American type season in 2019.,, Kansas had Devonte' Graham, who made 1st-Team All American as a Senior. Last year, they had Frank Mason, who was the National Player of the Year, he was also a Senior. We are envious of having a program like this... and UNC has also had upperclassmen make the All-American teams in the last 3 years with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, and now Luke Maye.

But it's not like those programs haven't had their own growing pains. Nova is the only one of those 3 programs that has matched us in titles this decade. And if you take out 2016 and 2018 years, Villanova is just 4-6 in the NCAA Tournament, this decade, with no trips to the Sweet 16. We've been at least a #2 seed 9 of the last 11 years. I think we're doing okay.

 

[Alaskan_Assassin_21]

IMO the sample size is currently too small. I cannot choose a definite side. I do know that the late 2000s was our lowest point and these current squads would defeat them. Those squads had no OADs but suffered from guys like Henderson and McRoberts leaving after 2 & 3 years.

 

[pavadukefan]

How did those years from 2005-2009 sit with those that feel like Multi year players Duke had? How many Final 4 appearances did Duke have?

 

[LouisiAaron]

I think most people are jealous of programs like Villanova and Kansas that have really, really good upperclassmen. Villanova had Brunson, a junior, and Bridges, a red-shirt Junior, both make the All-American teams this year (Brunson was NPOY). Last year, Josh Hart made 1st Team All-American as a Senior. DiVincenzo looks like he might have an All-American type season in 2019.,, Kansas had Devonte' Graham, who made 1st-Team All American as a Senior. Last year, they had Frank Mason, who was the National Player of the Year, he was also a Senior. We are envious of having a program like this... and UNC has also had upperclassmen make the All-American teams in the last 3 years with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, and now Luke Maye.

But it's not like those programs haven't had their own growing pains. Nova is the only one of those 3 programs that has matched us in titles this decade. And if you take out 2016 and 2018 years, Villanova is just 4-6 in the NCAA Tournament, this decade, with no trips to the Sweet 16. We've been at least a #2 seed 9 of the last 11 years. I think we're doing okay.

That’s probably what it is. Those players took awhile to become that caliber. Duke players progress faster individually. Maybe Coach K likes the challenge of coaching freshmen to winning a championship. He has done everything else. Now he wants to be known as a Coach that can produce pro talent. That was the only thing missing from his legacy. Nobody can say he doesn’t produce good pros now

 

[Mac9192]

That’s probably what it is. Those players took awhile to become that caliber. Duke players progress faster individually. Maybe Coach K likes the challenge of coaching freshmen to winning a championship. He has done everything else. Now he wants to be known as a Coach that can produce pro talent. That was the only thing missing from his legacy. Nobody can say he doesn’t produce good pros now

Come on man. Our players progress faster? Faster than who? To say our players progress faster than others is not only false, it's ridiculous.
I'll agree that under K, Duke is producing pro talent though.

 

[pisgah101]

Y’all realize they’re one and done because they perform well enough to get picked in the first round. Sounds like y’all rather regular freshmen that aren’t that good. Then you’ll complain about not doing winning. At this point if we change philosophy you’re looking at 3 years of mediocre at best play. Our bench players were at the bottom of the top 100 list coming out of high school. That’s what our team would look like for about two years. Then complaints would never stop.

Not always

 

[germantondevil]

Hey, mulit-year fans, consider this. The starting 5's of the Final Four teams in 2015 were composed as follows: Duke - 3 frosh., 1 soph., 1 sen; Michigan State 1 frosh., 1 soph., 1 jr., 2 sr.; Wisconsin: 2 soph., 1 jun., 2 sen.; Kentucky: 2 frosh., 2 soph., 1 Jr.
60% are underclassmen (frosh or soph) and frosh outnumber seniors 6 to 5.
This was the last year Duke won a title, so if we are going to cherry-pick years to make a point, perhaps we should pick this year.
In any given year there are a dozen or so teams that have a legit shot to win a title. There are only 2 (Duke and Kentucky) who are loading up on OAD players (and as others have said, Duke doesn't do it every year contrary to what some might believe). So when a team that doesn't have a bunch of freshmen playing wins a title, it is NOT evidence that the model that Duke and Kentucky are using is wrong. You may not like the model, and that is totally fine. But Villanova winning last night says NOTHING about Duke's approach and whether or not we can win with the guys we are bringing in. We will, again, be one of the dozen or so teams with a legit chance of winning (in fact, I just saw the "way too early" Vegas line that has Duke as favorites next year).
I'll say it again, we did not lose to Kansas because of our lack of veteran play. Bags needed more touches and Gary/Grayson shot poorly. Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson would not have changed that.

Those early Vegas odds had Duke favored this year and if nobody leaves Nova early and they come back there is no way in heck they would have Dukes team favored to win it all over a senior laden team with 2 nattys under their belt already. Men vs Boys if all of Novas team comes back. It would be the closest team to Dukes 92 team that there has been since 92.

 

[LouisiAaron]

Come on man. Our players progress faster? Faster than who? To say our players progress faster than others is not only false, it's ridiculous.
I'll agree that under K, Duke is producing pro talent though.

Clearly they are producing as freshmen enough that pro teams want to spend a first round pick on them. All of those upperclassmen for other teams are upperclassmen for a reason.

 

[dukephysics]

Those early Vegas odds had Duke favored this year and if nobody leaves Nova early and they come back there is no way in heck they would have Dukes team favored to win it all over a senior laden team with 2 nattys under their belt already. Men vs Boys if all of Novas team comes back. It would be the closest team to Dukes 92 team that there has been since 92.

I'm not saying I'm picking us this early. I'm saying Vegas has.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexka...nd-every-championship-contender/#308e2f105a05
The point is we are a contender, with Bolden being the only upperclassman who has contributed. There are some that seem to think there is no way we can win without veteran leadership. My argument is that there is no evidence to support this claim, or at best the evidence is very weak and cherry-picked.
But I agree with you here, if everyone for Nova returns they should be the clear favorite (with no guarantee that their veteran leadership results in another title).

 

[Devilinside]

Y’all realize they’re one and done because they perform well enough to get picked in the first round. Sounds like y’all rather regular freshmen that aren’t that good. Then you’ll complain about not doing winning. At this point if we change philosophy you’re looking at 3 years of mediocre at best play. Our bench players were at the bottom of the top 100 list coming out of high school. That’s what our team would look like for about two years. Then complaints would never stop.

"Y'all" miss the point. It is more than just possible to win without OAD's, as evidenced by this year's Final Four. And I am not against all OAD's, just against heavy reliance on them. Having one or two can co-exist with a team related structure which relies on players with 2 or more years on the team.

 

[Mac9192]

"Y'all" miss the point. It is more than just possible to win without OAD's, as evidenced by this year's Final Four. And I am not against all OAD's, just against heavy reliance on them. Having one or two can co-exist with a team related structure which relies on players with 2 or more years on the team.

Until it happens, no team has won a title in the one and done era relying on "only" the one and done. That's a fact. Their best player may have been a one and done, but having at least 2 veterans have been on each team, even back when Anthony led Syracuse.

 

[dukiejay]

Well, I don't think it will ever happen with 'only' one-and-done's. I mean, even next year we would project two juniors and a sophomore playing vital roles. That doesn't include potentially another junior like Jack White.

 

[LouisiAaron]

"Y'all" miss the point. It is more than just possible to win without OAD's, as evidenced by this year's Final Four. And I am not against all OAD's, just against heavy reliance on them. Having one or two can co-exist with a team related structure which relies on players with 2 or more years on the team.

Once again clearly Coach K is recruiting exclusively “one and done” players for a reason. He sees it as a challenge. People like some on here is what’s going to keep him going because y’all say it can’t be done. Plus he’s trying to build up a rep as a coach that produces pro players. He doesn’t care about y’all feeling like he needs 3-4 years. That ship has sailed. He conquered that.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

I'm assuming that all the posters which dislike OADs must have been pretty mad when we landed RJ Barrett (since he is the most obvious OAD from this group). But for some reason I can't find any of those angry posts that must have been all over our board when he committed....

 

[dukiejay]

Once again clearly Coach K is recruiting exclusively “one and done” players for a reason. He sees it as a challenge. People like some on here is what’s going to keep him going because y’all say it can’t be done. Plus he’s trying to build up a rep as a coach that produces pro players. He doesn’t care about y’all feeling like he needs 3-4 years. That ship has sailed. He conquered that.

I don't agree with this. IMO, K isn't 'exclusively' recruiting one-and-done players. He brought in three freshmen just this past season who didn't fall into that category. He's recruiting the best players like he always has....and right now, pretty much all of them are saying yes.

 

[dukebluesTX]

I don't know which side I fall on in this debate. If the best players want to come to Duke, you can't just tell them sorry, we only want 2 OAD's per season. But, it's also hard to develop really good 3-4 year players when every season, a new crop of OAD's comes in and takes up most of the playing time. The 3-4 year players either ride the pine or transfer, and become pretty good players for teams like Syracuse, Memphis, etc.... So who knows.....

 

[LouisiAaron]

I don't agree with this. IMO, K isn't 'exclusively' recruiting one-and-done players. He brought in three freshmen just this past season who didn't fall into that category. He's recruiting the best players like he always has....and right now, pretty much all of them are saying yes.

He had to bring them in to fill the roster. We lost 8 players last year. We had to fill th roster so he brought in low ranked program players. You know and I know that Goldwire and O’Connell may never play starters minutes. They were recruited to be bench players. Both will get recruited over every year. Your last sentence makes my point. He has been recruiting one and dones. But people act like he just started this. Pretty much a lot of folks on here just wish they don’t commit like back in the day

 

[dukiejay]

I posted this is another thread, too...

I think people are underrating AOC a little bit. He was a consensus top-75 kid. And while his dad played at Duke, K didn't recruit him to be kind. AOC has a chance to be very good in the future.

I know people wished he had played more this past season, but he still averaged over 10 minutes per game. That's more as a true freshmen than guys named Grayson Allen, Matt Jones, Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee and Brian Zoubek....and just slightly less than other guys named Nolan Smith, Lance Thomas and Quinn Cook when they were freshmen.

 

[LouisiAaron]

I posted this is another thread, too...

I think people are underrating AOC a little bit. He was a consensus top-75 kid. And while his dad played at Duke, K didn't recruit him to be kind. AOC has a chance to be very good in the future.

I know people wished he had played more this past season, but he still averaged over 10 minutes per game. That's more as a true freshmen than guys named Grayson Allen, Matt Jones, Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee and Brian Zoubek....and just slightly less than other guys named Nolan Smith, Lance Thomas and Quinn Cook when they were freshmen.

I don’t see him maxing our over 20 minutes at Duke in a season. Do you see what we potentially have coming in for 2019? I expect Tre to stay two years and Cole Anthony will definitely play. It’s not looking good for Alex to start unless he waits it out until his senior year.

 

[germantondevil]

What happens now that Coach Capel has gone to Pitt. I’m sure he had a lot of influence when it came to recruiting. Even at Okla. he was a solid recruiter. Does he steal a couple of Ks recruits? He has a very strong selling point right now persuading players to be a part of something really special at Pitt in rebuilding an ACC program.

 

[Quavarius]

Give me the best talent and let the coaches figure it out!

 

[LouisiAaron]

What happens now that Coach Capel has gone to Pitt. I’m sure he had a lot of influence when it came to recruiting. Even at Okla. he was a solid recruiter. Does he steal a couple of Ks recruits? He has a very strong selling point right now persuading players to be a part of something really special at Pitt in rebuilding an ACC program.

No he won’t take anyone Duke goes at hard. They want to play for Coach K. Capel helps with the pitch but playing for Coach K is the main reason they come now. That Team USA stint is what really got him over the top

 

[Alaskan_Assassin_21]

Based on my posts :: I enjoy our current position

Fellas, Duke just opened as Vegas favorites over the National Champs. This second guessing is a bit petty at this point. Coach K is bringing in the best talent possible.

So we won Step 1

 

[KingOfBBN]

The only two success stories have been 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke and both of those teams had significant help from vets and do not win it all without them.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I find it cute that the argument against OAD's is to "look at the teams in this final four, look at Villanova, etc."...there are 2 teams that rely heavily on the OAD, Duke and UK, and since a few teams consist of a OAD or two, let's say that equals 1 more team in total that relies on OAD's to win.
So 3/68 teams = a bit over 4% of tournament teams rely on the OAD. Yep, odds are your'e gonna be correct if you take the 65 teams that don't rely on the OAD.

Here's the thing...UK (and it pains me to say this) is dangerous every year in the tournament, even if they aren't that great like this year. Their tournament success with Cal (thank god it's only gotten them 1 title) is really good.
And then there is us- we only played 1 OAD player a year up until 2015....so there have been 4 seasons where we relied heavily on the OAD (and I'm even including 2016, where our only OAD was Ingram) and we have 1 title in those 4 years. GIVE ME A TITLE EVERY 4 YEARS FOR THE REST OF ETERNITY. I want the top players every single year until they change the rule.

 

[christophero]

We didn't exactly suffer the year after Henderson left.

 

[Devilinside]

I find it cute that the argument against OAD's is to "look at the teams in this final four, look at Villanova, etc."...there are 2 teams that rely heavily on the OAD, Duke and UK, and since a few teams consist of a OAD or two, let's say that equals 1 more team in total that relies on OAD's to win.
So 3/68 teams = a bit over 4% of tournament teams rely on the OAD. Yep, odds are your'e gonna be correct if you take the 65 teams that don't rely on the OAD.

Here's the thing...UK (and it pains me to say this) is dangerous every year in the tournament, even if they aren't that great like this year. Their tournament success with Cal (thank god it's only gotten them 1 title) is really good.
And then there is us- we only played 1 OAD player a year up until 2015....so there have been 4 seasons where we relied heavily on the OAD (and I'm even including 2016, where our only OAD was Ingram) and we have 1 title in those 4 years. GIVE ME A TITLE EVERY 4 YEARS FOR THE REST OF ETERNITY. I want the top players every single year until they change the rule.

Your point is well taken for those for whom winning is the only thing. Not for me. I like to feel close to, and invested in, the team, with emphasis on "team". That comes with familiarity with the players as individuals which, in turn, comes with them being around for a while. Personally, I just don't get those feelings from our teams which have relied heavily on OAD's. I am just saying.

 

[jamsession3]

How did those years from 2005-2009 sit with those that feel like Multi year players Duke had? How many Final 4 appearances did Duke have?

Those years was suspect recruiting and underdevelopment.