OADS or 3-4 Year Players?

dukiejay

Heisman
Mar 2, 2005
11,293
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Touche...although i bet that statistic lasts for decades if not forever as an anomaly

Quite possibly. Just like teams playing in seven straight Final Four's or eight of nine. Or, every kid staying for four years.

Things will change in a few years. The one and done is going away.

But Duke will still do what Duke has done forever....and that's recruit the best players in the country.
 
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Quite possibly. Just like teams playing in seven straight Final Four's or eight of nine. Or, every kid staying for four years.

Things will change in a few years. The one and done is going away.

But Duke will still do what Duke has done forever....and that's recruit the best players in the country.
So is the gossip that it will be choice: Pro or stay 2 years? Or a return to previous Era with player choosing each year

For Duke I would prefer scenario #1. We would be guaranteed the best 2-Year players and you eliminate running into NBA ready studs in the NCAA Tournament primed for an upset
 

duke0527

All-American
Jan 5, 2005
5,272
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I think everyone prefers how it used to be. That doesn't make it the best, or only way, though.

Our group this season was close to being in the Final Four. Getting one stop or scoring on that last possession and we're still playing. I love Grayson and I've loved our past juniors and seniors, too. But I also love talent.

The groups we had from 2007 to 2009 were great kids and made many of us proud. Unfortunately, they weren't great teams. I'd venture to guess some of the same people complaining today about us being young were pissed those season's, too. Losing in the first round to VCU? Getting thoroughly embarrassed against WVU and Villanova in 2008 and 2009, respectively? Those times were much, much harder than now. We weren't close to the level of team we had last season or this year. Not even close.

It's crazy to think how the whole dynamic of this board would be completely different right now if just one shot had went in. Think about that.
Not to mention 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2011. All veteran teams with 02 being supremely talented as well. All 4 of those teams fell short of 2018.
 

LouisiAaron

All-Conference
Feb 15, 2017
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The best players option. Duke is making a money move with these one and dones. Watch how the ticket prices go up with the squad we have coming in next year. That team will be must see. It's hard to win a title. Luck plays a major part. We were unlucky yesterday. That's just the way it is sometimes. I'm looking forward to watching SHOWTIME DUKE next year though.
 
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BlueDaveil

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Nov 25, 2017
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I’ve always watched Duke basketball to see the best players in the country play at the best basketball program in the country and do things no one has seen before. It was amazingly awesome to watch my favorite Duke team ever in 2001 with their remarkable comebacks and their senior-led NBA talent. Sadly that world no longer exists for college basketball and probably never will again. It was also awesome watching JJ Redick break scoring records and put up 40 points in a game even if he never won a championship. I will remember those moments where kids did things I didn’t know could be done before long after I remember teams like 2010 ( don’t get me wrong, still loved them) who worked hard for 4 years and came together to win. I loved this year’s team and absolutely loved watching Bagley do things no Duke freshman has ever done or may ever do for quite a while. I’m expecting to see things next year that we have yet to witness as Duke fans and I’m sure I’ll love every minute of it.
 

DukeDenver

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Nov 21, 2010
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I’ve always watched Duke basketball to see the best players in the country play at the best basketball program in the country and do things no one has seen before. It was amazingly awesome to watch my favorite Duke team ever in 2001 with their remarkable comebacks and their senior-led NBA talent. Sadly that world no longer exists for college basketball and probably never will again. It was also awesome watching JJ Redick break scoring records and put up 40 points in a game even if he never won a championship. I will remember those moments where kids did things I didn’t know could be done before long after I remember teams like 2010 ( don’t get me wrong, still loved them) who worked hard for 4 years and came together to win. I loved this year’s team and absolutely loved watching Bagley do things no Duke freshman has ever done or may ever do for quite a while. I’m expecting to see things next year that we have yet to witness as Duke fans and I’m sure I’ll love every minute of it.
Have you ever seen a “fat” guy dunk like LeBron? Get ready.
 

dukephysics

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2016
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The best talent. Every single time.
Does Luke Kennard help this year's team. Maybe. Luke also scored 11 points (8 from the FT line) in our loss to SC in the tournament last year. So you could argue that maybe with Luke we don't get the poor 3pt shooting night from Gary and Grayson - or maybe we still get the poor shooting.
Do Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson help this team? I love those two guys, but maybe they help. We probably still can't play man-to-man defense.
Having senior leaders is no guarantee of success any more than having ultra-talented young guys is.
The only big play that didn't go our way because of youth was that 3 at the end of regulation for KU. I'd argue we gave away way more plays than that by not fully utilizing the talent we had (Bagley needed more touches).
If you remove Bagley, Trent, and Carter and replace them with Kennard, Matt Jones, and Amile, I'm not sure the veteran team has any better chance of winning the whole thing.
Give me the best talent, every single time.
(unless I get seniors Tyus Jones and Justice Winslow....then give me that)
 

dukesince91

All-American
Mar 16, 2012
3,604
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Call me shallow, I want the best talent in the nation and in Canada. I want to see K win it all with the OAD approach. If he does that, then he will have won the title every way possible.
 

Devilinside

All-Conference
Dec 30, 2010
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As I stated in another thread, winning, to me, is not the only thing. Just as Important is HOW you win. I feel very little closeness or connection to OAD's, which reduces the fervor and emotion with which I follow our team. Starting 4 OAD's, in my mind, would place an asterisk next to an MC won primarily because of them. I would rather rely on 3 and 4 year players who function as a well oiled team and who chose Duke, at least in part, with the intention of receiving a Duke degree. While Duke should have /could have won the Kansas game, I thought Kansas was the better, although less talented, team. Ditto UVA. And, possibly, (I hate to say it), UNCheat. I was relatively unenthused during the Kansas game except in connection with the fake blocking call against Carter which sent me into a blind rage. I know this will be considered heresy by many, but it is just how I feel about OAD's. I do not want them.
 

timmuh1515

Redshirt
Nov 22, 2006
83
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I think it all works out great if we play our non-OADs in season as we move forward. Continue getting AOC and Bolden and Goldwire time.

Same with any other lesser known recruits.

If they stay...Duke is better for it and we end up getting 1 or 2 studs to add instead of 5
 
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heelSince99

Redshirt
Feb 13, 2018
105
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How about reframing it a little....would you rather be Virginia who has ACC league and tournament wins but no national championship..but plays together and has good not great recruitng classes or go all in and try to win the national championship with OAD every year...obviously both could be the answer but histrory says its not - see our own experience. Personally, I'd like to get a great player and good players who buy in to the program - aka Villanova, for me part of the enjoyment is watching the journey and growth of the players on the team..i really dont like a new team every year.

That's what made last year so special for us. Not trying to gloat but that one was probably the most special championship for me personally because of that reason.
 

christophero

Heisman
May 2, 2017
17,371
21,082
113
I just had an epiphany. We need 2 and done players. The best of both worlds. By the way there is no way on God's green earth I would trade Virginia's season with ours. That loss will live in infamy. Like Laettner's shot.
 

GillJET

Senior
Dec 10, 2016
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That's what made last year so special for us. Not trying to gloat but that one was probably the most special championship for me personally because of that reason.
Every championship is special. Doesn’t matter if it was won by freshmen, sophomores, juniors or seniors. As a fan, I would imagine you would be fully invested in each and every season.
 
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wcu1113

Heisman
Jul 17, 2009
46,498
18,395
86
3-4 year guys. Hate the OAD era. It is clearly ruining what is good about college basketball.
 

youngman42

All-Conference
Jan 27, 2003
6,817
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Quite possibly. Just like teams playing in seven straight Final Four's or eight of nine. Or, every kid staying for four years.

Things will change in a few years. The one and done is going away.

But Duke will still do what Duke has done forever....and that's recruit the best players in the country.

That hasn't always been the case as far as multiple top 10s. Typically, Coach K would dip into one top 10-15 player (A Ferry, Laettner, Hill, etc.) while getting several other talented players but not top 10 to surround that player. It worked well with the top player staying 3-4 seasons. The '82 & '98 classes were exceptional, similar to the more recent classes, but '82 stayed 4; '98 had some leave and some stay.

Rather than recruit the best players in the country and win the recruiting class wars every year, I'd rather Duke get to the FF with a slightly more veteran team and win.

It takes something very special for a group of freshmen to lead a team to an NCAA title, and it's not just the top 5 recruits. 2015 had Quin Cook as a great leader; and 3 non-freshmen getting over 21 mpg (Cook, Jefferson, Matt Jones). Jefferson and Jones and Cook were just more mature and better team leaders (even if not uber talented) than Grayson, Delaurier, and Bolden. Not denigrating the latter 3 at all. Duke also had a very special pg in Tyus Jones. Both super unselfish (I think Cook's example helped) but also humble and willing to defer to others for scoring, yet with the ability to take over a game at any time and score from both 3 and 2.
 
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dukiejay

Heisman
Mar 2, 2005
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That hasn't always been the case as far as multiple top 10s. Typically, Coach K would dip into one top 10-15 player (A Ferry, Laettner, Hill, etc.) while getting several other talented players but not top 10 to surround that player. It worked well with the top player staying 3-4 seasons. The '82 & '98 classes were exceptional, similar to the more recent classes, but '82 stayed 4; '98 had some leave and some stay.

Rather than recruit the best players in the country and win the recruiting class wars every year, I'd rather Duke get to the FF with a slightly more veteran team and win.

It takes something very special for a group of freshmen to lead a team to an NCAA title, and it's not just the top 5 recruits. 2015 had Quin Cook as a great leader; and 3 non-freshmen getting over 21 mpg (Cook, Jefferson, Matt Jones). Jefferson and Jones and Cook were just more mature and better team leaders (even if not uber talented) than Grayson, Delaurier, and Bolden. Not denigrating the latter 3 at all. Duke also had a very special pg in Tyus Jones. Both super unselfish (I think Cook's example helped) but also humble and willing to defer to others for scoring, yet with the ability to take over a game at any time and score from both 3 and 2.

I don't really disagree with what you're saying, per se, but it doesn't change the fact that we do recruit the best players in the country. We just haven't always gotten all of them. K is as hot as he's ever been recruiting. Just 10 years ago we'd barely get some of the top 10 guys to even flirt with us. And if they did flirt, that was all they did.

There's definitely a happy medium....and I understand that. But I think we always tend to have top-of-mind awareness. It's easier to live in the moment than it is to live in the past. In the mid-2000s, our recruiting was down. Then, fans thought K's involvement with USA basketball was a detriment to the program and it was taking him away from his Duke responsibilities.

Back then, we weren't getting enough talent. Today, one could argue we're getting too much. I, too, pine for the college basketball of old, where players stay three and four years and we get the opportunity to see them grow throughout their career. Times change, though.

People point to UNC and Villanova and say that's the model they'd like to see Duke follow. I get that. But both those programs have had their struggles, too. In a six-year span from 2010 through 2015, Villanova never reached the second weekend of the tournament and missed the tournament all together once. North Carolina, one of the most storied programs in college basketball, had a seven-year absence from the Final Four. Duke has never gone more than six without playing in the Final Four since K took over in 1980-81. Again, it's top-of-mind awareness.

I'm as frustrated as everyone here about the loss on Sunday, seeing the year-to-year turnover and not doing as well as we should in the postseason with our talent. But perspective tells me we still have it pretty damn good. It's not perfect....but it's damn impressive to stay as consistent as we have.
 
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heelSince99

Redshirt
Feb 13, 2018
105
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Every championship is special. Doesn’t matter if it was won by freshmen, sophomores, juniors or seniors. As a fan, I would imagine you would be fully invested in each and every season.

There's no question about that. I'm just saying comparing last year to 2005 and 2009, last year was sweeter because of what the boys went through the year before. 2009 they were clearly the most dominant team in the country so that one was expected and in 2005 they were pretty stacked too. Last year we won without all the talent. That team had a special dynamic and the players were really close and that made winning that natty special.
 

GillJET

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Dec 10, 2016
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There's no question about that. I'm just saying comparing last year to 2005 and 2009, last year was sweeter because of what the boys went through the year before. 2009 they were clearly the most dominant team in the country so that one was expected and in 2005 they were pretty stacked too. Last year we won without all the talent. That team had a special dynamic and the players were really close and that made winning that natty special.
Yeah y’all got your redemption last year I guess.
 
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jamsession3

All-Conference
Dec 4, 2005
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Villanova's redshirt-freshman Spellman is the only freshman starting in this years Final Four

Anomaly or new trend?

See Villanova for the correct answer. OAD is for bragging purposes only. If you look at the FF this year; upperclassmen leadership, high usage of the redshirt, and solid coaching.
 
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pavadukefan

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Aug 1, 2008
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I agree with dukiejay on this. From 2005-2009 how many Final 4’s did Duke go to? Duke was not getting top players and was striking out with Big Men. Don’t you all remember Tony Parker saying Duke doesn’t develop or get big men? How about Patrick Paterson? How about Kenny Boynton who many thought would land at Duke. I for one like getting the talent as opposed to not getting it. Honestly Duke might drop off in recruiting because of Capel leaving so Duke might get more 4 year players.
 

pavadukefan

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Villanova does recruit the same players Duke does. You want to go the way UVA does it? How did they do in the tournament? The Duke staff knows what is best in terms of what players to go after. Just my opinion
 

nets on nets on nets

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Jun 4, 2015
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See Villanova for the correct answer. OAD is for bragging purposes only. If you look at the FF this year; upperclassmen leadership, high usage of the redshirt, and solid coaching.
Villanova also made it to the 2nd weekend a whopping ZERO times from 2010-2015. Had a 1 seed twice during that time frame........
 
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dukiejay

Heisman
Mar 2, 2005
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Villanova also made it to the 2nd weekend a whopping ZERO times from 2010-2015. Had a 1 seed twice during that time frame........

They were also a two seed twice in that timeframe, too.....that means they lost to a seven through 10 seed four times in six years.
 

nets on nets on nets

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I agree with dukiejay on this. From 2005-2009 how many Final 4’s did Duke go to? Duke was not getting top players and was striking out with Big Men. Don’t you all remember Tony Parker saying Duke doesn’t develop or get big men? How about Patrick Paterson? How about Kenny Boynton who many thought would land at Duke. I for one like getting the talent as opposed to not getting it. Honestly Duke might drop off in recruiting because of Capel leaving so Duke might get more 4 year players.
Greg Monroe too. Believe he was the top big-man in the class of 08.

To be blunt, in the eyes of high-school superstars, Duke basketball was not cool during the "dark period" of 05-09 for a few reasons.
Kyrie Irving made Duke "cool" again and K hasn't looked back since.
 

Slhbabydoll98

Redshirt
Jan 29, 2017
1
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There's no question about that. I'm just saying comparing last year to 2005 and 2009, last year was sweeter because of what the boys went through the year before. 2009 they were clearly the most dominant team in the country so that one was expected and in 2005 they were pretty stacked too. Last year we won without all the talent. That team had a special dynamic and the players were really close and that made winning that natty special.

I think all three of those title teams had there redemption journey. The seniors on the 2005 title team went 8-20 and always used to lose to duke. The 2009 team got embarrassed in the final four by Kansas the year prior. Those teams were built on 3-4 year players who were good in enough to be top 15 recruits but not necessarily be on the nba's radar. Definitely prefer 3-4 year players.
 

KingOfBBN

Heisman
Sep 14, 2013
39,077
38,403
0
If the NBA changes the rule to where they go straight to the pros, what will happen is the same crap that happened before- coaches will waste time recruiting a player, he will commit and then declare for the draft, leaving a program with holes to fill.

Stodamire did it, JR Smith did it, Livingston did it, Telfair did it, etc.
 

df64

All-Conference
Feb 2, 2006
2,702
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Not necesarrily comparing apples to apples with the upper class team comparisons. Do both Frank and Luke go pro if they put up the same numbers playing for Nova or Michigan last year? Good chance at least one doesn't. Our success hurts us sometimes. All the exposure gets their names mentioned a lot more than at other schools. Many times that is initial shove that starts the whole process of leaving early. Sometimes, it is the final shove out the door.
 

Devilinside

All-Conference
Dec 30, 2010
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Hey, OAD fans, consider this. The starting 5's of the Final Four teams were composed as follows: Villanova - 1 soph., 3 sen., 1 jun; Kansas 2 sen., 2 jun, 1 soph; Michigan: 1 fresh., 2 jun., 1 sen., 1 soph.; Loyola: 4 sen, 1 fresh. Just a coincidence they were in the Final Four? I don't think so. Throw UVA in with that bunch. Players right out of high school who have never played together rarely can function as a well-oiled team after only 9 or 10 months of playing together. Experience cannot be taught. Familiarity with teammates' games cannot be taught. So where does that leave Duke? Duke and Kentucky now share one thing,almost total reliance on OAD's. They have become so similar in that respect, it makes me uncomfortable to be in the same boat with Kentucky on anything. We may crush other teams on talent alone next year, but to me an NC would be an hollow victory. I want us to go back to being an actual program which morphs continuously by allowing players to mature over 2 to 4 years, not just one. We do not need OAD's to be a great team.
 
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dukedevilz

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
15,637
19,600
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There's lots of numbers to cherry-pick. So I'll do some myself:

Kentucky has made it the elite 8 in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017. 6 out of 9 ain't bad.

Duke has had more than one freshmen in the starting lineup in the OAD Era only twice: 2015 and 2018 (Frank Jackson didn't start the majority of the games in 2017). 2 out of 2 ain't bad... So between Kentucky and Duke, you're looking at 8 out of 11 times the team has made it to the Elite 8 with 2+ freshmen in the starting lineup. I like those chances, personally. Ideally you're going to have a Grayson Allen & Quinn Cook-type players among your core, but that obviously can't happen every year. Bottom line, I want talent. One-and-Dones, I'll take 'em. Upperclassmen, I'll take them too.

Btw, people forget that the 2011 UConn team featured 3 freshmen that were in the top 5 on the team in scoring (Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, Roscoe Smith). They weren't one-and-done, but they were still freshmen.
 
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Mac9192

Heisman
Jan 25, 2017
9,551
13,813
107
There's lots of numbers to cherry-pick. So I'll do some myself:

Kentucky has made it the elite 8 in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017. 6 out of 9 ain't bad.

Duke has had more than one freshmen in the starting lineup in the OAD Era only twice: 2015 and 2018 (Frank Jackson didn't start the majority of the games in 2017). 2 out of 2 ain't bad... So between Kentucky and Duke, you're looking at 8 out of 11 times the team has made it to the Elite 8 with 2+ freshmen in the starting lineup. I like those chances, personally. Ideally you're going to have a Grayson Allen & Quinn Cook-type players among your core, but that obviously can't happen every year. Bottom line, I want talent. One-and-Dones, I'll take 'em. Upperclassmen, I'll take them too.

Btw, people forget that the 2011 UConn team featured 3 freshmen that were in the top 5 on the team in scoring (Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, Roscoe Smith). They weren't one-and-done, but they were still freshmen.
Good post. I don't mind the one and done, just don't like the roster getting full with them. I would like to think we can get a balance. Either way, I'll still pull for Duke, it's just that I personally don't think that's the best way to achieve the success we are after.
 

dukiejay

Heisman
Mar 2, 2005
11,293
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I don’t think this was K’s intent for it to go down as it has.

No one predicted Luke to be gone after his sophomore season. While it was more likely Frank could leave early, it wasn’t expected as a freshman, either.

That’s why, IMO, you saw K go out late and get guys like Jordan Tucker and Jordan Goldwire last spring. That was almost preventative care and to be prepared in the future in case it happened again. Tucker didn’t work out (from the sounds of it, his own doing) and I think Goldwire has a solid future at Duke. He probably never starts, but he’s going to be solid.
 

LouisiAaron

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Feb 15, 2017
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Y’all realize they’re one and done because they perform well enough to get picked in the first round. Sounds like y’all rather regular freshmen that aren’t that good. Then you’ll complain about not doing winning. At this point if we change philosophy you’re looking at 3 years of mediocre at best play. Our bench players were at the bottom of the top 100 list coming out of high school. That’s what our team would look like for about two years. Then complaints would never stop.
 
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LouisiAaron

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I don’t think this was K’s intent for it to go down as it has.

No one predicted Luke to be gone after his sophomore season. While it was more likely Frank could leave early, it wasn’t expected as a freshman, either.

That’s why, IMO, you saw K go out late and get guys like Jordan Tucker and Jordan Goldwire last spring. That was almost preventative care and to be prepared in the future in case it happened again. Tucker didn’t work out (from the sounds of it, his own doing) and I think Goldwire has a solid future at Duke. He probably never starts, but he’s going to be solid.

Same with Tyus. Nobody thought he would leave but he was better than advertised. People not understanding that these kids are working on th it game to get to ththe NBA. They aren’t working out to stay in college four years