Notre Dame

[zeek55]

Or, don't lost to Akron, ISU, NIU etc. I've actually seen a lot of ND fans give NU a lot of credit and say they are the toughest game remaining. If we hadn't lost that debacle against Akron then we would be 6-2 with a respectable loss to Duke and a hard fought loss to Michigan. The narrative would be different.

How? Last year we were 7-3 and ranked and kept winning and that narrative was still there because we didn't have any big wins.


If we had beaten Akron, we'd be 6-2 and ranked but in the same spot as last year. Literally an identical narrative to last year. Losses to good teams and Duke.


My point is: big wins matter way more than bad losses. If you don't have big wins, you're just another team that people say "well look who they beat, a bunch of mediocre teams"...


If we beat ND, we'll be a top 20 team and nobody will care about the Akron loss. The only things people will talk about is the ND win and whether we win the division.


Nobody cared in '95 that we lost to Miami after we beat Michigan and Penn State. Nobody in '96 cared that we lost to Wake Forest after we beat Michigan again.


Or compare 2015 to 2017 when even with the 2 blowout losses, we had tons of respect late in the season from that Stanford win (they finished #3). Of course we lost plenty of that in the bowl game.

 

[SmellyCat]

The bad losses will always be there (certainly NU fans never forget them), and fans will always be happy to point them out. Some ND fans have pointed out Akron to show how not good NU is, and they're not wrong to do it. We lost that game, and we should own that. There may be "reasons" why it happened, but the reality is a bad Akron team literally finished a game with more points than (what I hope is) a good Northwestern team in 2018.

If NU beats Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Iowa in a three-week stretch, that WILL be remembered more than the Akron loss and the Rutgers atrocity. And then in December fans of Oregon or Georgia or whoever we end up playing will once again bring up Akron and Rutgers as an example of why NU isn't good. And unless we beat Oregon or Georgia or whoever, they'll be right.

So let's run the table and shut up all the haters. At the end of the season, the Zips can say "we beat the Big Ten champs!" and "we beat the Rose Bowl champs!" and we'll give them that, but we can smile at the fact it was a great season.

Then in 2019, Hunter Johnson leads the top 20 team to a season-opening victory over Stanford and NU will have arrived. That's how it has to happen. Win the next seven games in a row and we are there. Is it going to be difficult? Of course. Is it impossible? Nope.

 

[NJCat]

If we had beaten Akron, we'd be 6-2 and ranked but in the same spot as last year. Literally an identical narrative to last year. Losses to good teams and Duke.

Redundant. Duke is a good team this year. They were ranked at one point this season.

 

[DaCat]

I think we match up well with ND.

 

[zeek55]

The bad losses will always be there (certainly NU fans never forget them), and fans will always be happy to point them out. Some ND fans have pointed out Akron to show how not good NU is, and they're not wrong to do it. We lost that game, and we should own that. There may be "reasons" why it happened, but the reality is a bad Akron team literally finished a game with more points than (what I hope is) a good Northwestern team in 2018.

If NU beats Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Iowa in a three-week stretch, that WILL be remembered more than the Akron loss and the Rutgers atrocity. And then in December fans of Oregon or Georgia or whoever we end up playing will once again bring up Akron and Rutgers as an example of why NU isn't good. And unless we beat Oregon or Georgia or whoever, they'll be right.

So let's run the table and shut up all the haters. At the end of the season, the Zips can say "we beat the Big Ten champs!" and "we beat the Rose Bowl champs!" and we'll give them that, but we can smile at the fact it was a great season.

Then in 2019, Hunter Johnson leads the top 20 team to a season-opening victory over Stanford and NU will have arrived. That's how it has to happen. Win the next seven games in a row and we are there. Is it going to be difficult? Of course. Is it impossible? Nope.

Yeah, I'm certainly not trying to pretend that the Akron loss isn't a bad loss or excuse it away.

Only point I've been trying to make is that big wins typically heavily outweigh big or bad losses.

2015 we spent so many weeks ranked because Stanford kept winning after we beat them in week 1, so everybody kept saying "well Northwestern beat Stanford so NU must be a good team" even after we got blown out twice we got back in the rankings pretty quickly in large part because of the halo effect that Stanford win provided the whole season. Yes we won 9 other games, but the Stanford win was talked about all year.


A win against ND this week would provide that kind of "2015 Stanford halo effect" for the rest of the season where everyone would talk about that win until this season ends because they're 8-0 right now.


And I agree completely, the bowl game is important this year especially because of our non-conference performance to this point (and moreso if we lose to Notre Dame).

We really do want a big win against somebody outside of Wisconsin/Iowa/Michigan State (who've given us many of our big wins the past couple of years), so people can see how good this team is without the qualifier of only beating Big Ten teams to get to this point.

 

[SmellyCat]

Yeah, I'm certainly not trying to pretend that the Akron loss isn't a bad loss or excuse it away.

Only point I've been trying to make is that big wins typically heavily outweigh big or bad losses.

2015 we spent so many weeks ranked because Stanford kept winning after we beat them in week 1, so everybody kept saying "well Northwestern beat Stanford so NU must be a good team" even after we got blown out twice we got back in the rankings pretty quickly in large part because of the halo effect that Stanford win provided the whole season. Yes we won 9 other games, but the Stanford win was talked about all year.


A win against ND this week would provide that kind of "2015 Stanford halo effect" for the rest of the season where everyone would talk about that win until this season ends because they're 8-0 right now.


And I agree completely, the bowl game is important this year especially because of our non-conference performance to this point (and moreso if we lose to Notre Dame).

We really do want a big win against somebody outside of Wisconsin/Iowa/Michigan State (who've given us many of our big wins the past couple of years), so people can see how good this team is without the qualifier of only beating Big Ten teams to get to this point.

I agree with all of this, and I like the "halo effect" idea. I'm just saying NU has to win the next seven in a row (I know this is a huge mountain to climb!) before we get to the point where the national story is that NU is good and not just "NU has beaten a few middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams but can't beat anyone truly good."

If NU wins the next six, they're definitely a top 20 team preseason next year. Certainly they are after they beat Stanford. Then any horrible losses at the beginning of the year may not even drop them out of the rankings, and they're still regarded a real contender and a circled game on a good team's calendar. A man can dream!

Lose *any* of the next seven, however, and we have to start all over again next year. We will never become what Stanford is now until we prove it by beating great teams for an extended period of time. I'd say an 11-game winning streak with several of those games against top 10 teams would do it.

 

[SmellyCat]

Some will say I am delusional. Even I, the optimistic NU fan, realize that winning the next seven games is going to be next to impossible. I'm only saying that winning those seven games is the fastest way we're going to ever be considered a perennial "great" team and not just "a great story out of Evanston" every now and then.

 

[GOUNUII]

There is nothing wrong with calling out obviously bad logic and obvious trolling.

Especially not when I’ve been trying to get this board to actually discuss the game/matchup in some meaningful way.

Meaningful to you isn't necessarily the same thing as meaningful to others. Your Xs and Os commentary is impressive. Your shading of all things ND football very common among diehard fans. My point of emphasis is always what I see on the field. It has proven to be very reliable over the years, both in assessing HS recruits and the relative overall strength of competing teams. You can't measure NU football in any sort of conventional way. Not by recruiting rankings, size or speed ... stats ... or bad losses or good wins. Indeed, not even a several game sample in any given year will give you much anybody should rely on. It's a team that should be measured only by its overall record of winning. But people are slow to do that. Witness being 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a dog. Actually winning 5 of those 7 games. NU football is an easy team to underestimate. They win with all sorts of warts and blemishes throughout the game. They lose some unbelievable "only at NU" type games. Most teams NU beats walk away thinking they let one get away. They aren't always wrong.

Imagine you were playing against a good MSU team this weekend in Evanston. One that is in contention for the BIG championship, riding a 4 game winning streak and coming off a wire to wire pasting of top 20 Wisconsin. One that has a NFL talent at QB and a defense that just held the BIG's best RB, running behind the nation's best OL, to less than half his per game average. One where there is significant, but not widely known bad blood toward how the Irish go about their business. How would you view THAT game? Cuz that's what your getting. Without the benefit of the MSU rivalry angle or the electrifying stage of 80K crazed fans.

This is a great week of football in my family. I was born to Domers, married a Domer and sent my oldest 2 boys to ND. It is a special place and a wonderful school. Except on a football Saturday when they are playing the Cats.

GOUNUII

 

[StreamCat]

This is a great week of football in my family. I was born to Domers, married a Domer and sent my oldest 2 boys to ND. It is a special place and a wonderful school. Except on a football Saturday when they are playing the Cats.

GOUNUII

Boy, you summed up my experience better than I could. My family is so excited for this Saturday. No matter who wins, someone's going to be happy and someone's going to be sad. My Domer son told me, "Of course I expect you to cheer on the Cats!" He gets it. His brother is a Cats maniac, yet I love them both the same. This is going to be some fun, no matter the outcome.

 

[DaCat]

Meaningful to you isn't necessarily the same thing as meaningful to others. Your Xs and Os commentary is impressive. Your shading of all things ND football very common among diehard fans. My point of emphasis is always what I see on the field. It has proven to be very reliable over the years, both in assessing HS recruits and the relative overall strength of competing teams. You can't measure NU football in any sort of conventional way. Not by recruiting rankings, size or speed ... stats ... or bad losses or good wins. Indeed, not even a several game sample in any given year will give you much anybody should rely on. It's a team that should be measured only by its overall record of winning. But people are slow to do that. Witness being 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a dog. Actually winning 5 of those 7 games. NU football is an easy team to underestimate. They win with all sorts of warts and blemishes throughout the game. They lose some unbelievable "only at NU" type games. Most teams NU beats walk away thinking they let one get away. They aren't always wrong.

Imagine you were playing against a good MSU team this weekend in Evanston. One that is in contention for the BIG championship, riding a 4 game winning streak and coming off a wire to wire pasting of top 20 Wisconsin. One that has a NFL talent at QB and a defense that just held the BIG's best RB, running behind the nation's best OL, to less than half his per game average. One where there is significant, but not widely known bad blood toward how the Irish go about their business. How would you view THAT game? Cuz that's what your getting. Without the benefit of the MSU rivalry angle or the electrifying stage of 80K crazed fans.

This is a great week of football in my family. I was born to Domers, married a Domer and sent my oldest 2 boys to ND. It is a special place and a wonderful school. Except on a football Saturday when they are playing the Cats.

GOUNUII

Great post, especially the analogy to MSU. NU is not going to overpower teams like N* D* although we did dominate a very good (though banged up) Wisconsin team. Fitz and team understand very well that this could be a breakthrough, signature win for the program against N* D* (again). Recruits and national audience take notice.

Obviously we need a great effort from everyone, but two areas that stand out to me is QB and OL. I think our defense will put up another strong performance and not too worried about them. Thorson has to protect the ball (no turnovers please!) and make the throws on target. When we beat N* D* in 2014, Siemian was making some outstanding throws. And our OL has its work cut out against an elite defense.

 

[FriedmanIP]

Meaningful to you isn't necessarily the same thing as meaningful to others. Your Xs and Os commentary is impressive. Your shading of all things ND football very common among diehard fans. My point of emphasis is always what I see on the field. It has proven to be very reliable over the years, both in assessing HS recruits and the relative overall strength of competing teams. You can't measure NU football in any sort of conventional way. Not by recruiting rankings, size or speed ... stats ... or bad losses or good wins. Indeed, not even a several game sample in any given year will give you much anybody should rely on. It's a team that should be measured only by its overall record of winning. But people are slow to do that. Witness being 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a dog. Actually winning 5 of those 7 games. NU football is an easy team to underestimate. They win with all sorts of warts and blemishes throughout the game. They lose some unbelievable "only at NU" type games. Most teams NU beats walk away thinking they let one get away. They aren't always wrong.

Imagine you were playing against a good MSU team this weekend in Evanston. One that is in contention for the BIG championship, riding a 4 game winning streak and coming off a wire to wire pasting of top 20 Wisconsin. One that has a NFL talent at QB and a defense that just held the BIG's best RB, running behind the nation's best OL, to less than half his per game average. One where there is significant, but not widely known bad blood toward how the Irish go about their business. How would you view THAT game? Cuz that's what your getting. Without the benefit of the MSU rivalry angle or the electrifying stage of 80K crazed fans.

This is a great week of football in my family. I was born to Domers, married a Domer and sent my oldest 2 boys to ND. It is a special place and a wonderful school. Except on a football Saturday when they are playing the Cats.

GOUNUII

What, specifically, do you think I’ve shaded/favored about ND?

My only issue with your description is giving FAR too much credit to Wisconsin and MSU this year. I’m a badger alum (masters and law school) and work in Madison. I can tell you that this is just not a good Badgers team and has become a total disaster on defense with all of the injured.

For example, the badgers have allowed 700+ Rush Yards at 5.25 YPC during the last 3 weeks. Northwestern was actually much less productive on the ground agaisnt Wisconsin than other recent opponents....we’re that bad.

But I completely agree that Northwestern is a good team that’s going to give 110% agasint ND. No question there.

Preseason, this was the #1 pick for an upset loss...for numerous reasons.

I’d actually love to discuss the matchup, if this board can handle that.
(meaning not just revolve into stupid fighting)

 

[FriedmanIP]

Great post, especially the analogy to MSU. NU is not going to overpower teams like N* D* although we did dominate a very good (though banged up) Wisconsin team. Fitz and team understand very well that this could be a breakthrough, signature win for the program against N* D* (again). Recruits and national audience take notice.

Obviously we need a great effort from everyone, but two areas that stand out to me is QB and OL. I think our defense will put up another strong performance and not too worried about them. Thorson has to protect the ball (no turnovers please!) and make the throws on target. When we beat N* D* in 2014, Siemian was making some outstanding throws. And our OL has its work cut out against an elite defense.

Surprised you guys feel so good about your defense.

ND has been averaging 40+ points/game with Book at QB.

Plus, if you’re really going to play “Bend don’t break” agaisnt him, that would play right into his strengths. Book is literally #1 in the nation in Comp. % and almost all of his production has come by matching the offense down the field in 5 to 10 yard chunks....but he’s struggled agasint more aggressive blitzes and aggressive press coverage.

If you want to see how those aggressive schemes and techniques affected him, just toss on the ND/Pitt game.

 

[GOUNUII]

Boy, you summed up my experience better than I could. My family is so excited for this Saturday. No matter who wins, someone's going to be happy and someone's going to be sad. My Domer son told me, "Of course I expect you to cheer on the Cats!" He gets it. His brother is a Cats maniac, yet I love them both the same. This is going to be some fun, no matter the outcome.

Unfortunately, I will not be watching the game Saturday with my family. We will all be at a family wedding reception when the game kicks off. I am committed to the occasional iphone update on the game's status. The rest of the family doesn't want to know a thing. They are taping it for replay. But will watch only if the Irish win. Because of their professional schedules, they often record the ND games. But replays are limited to the wins. Could this be the first no replay of the season? Am I going to break the news to them if that happens? Haven't decided if I want to be the one to announce "replay" or "no replay." Game day, at the moment decision on that one. Like you Stream I love my Domers dearly. Even the overly invested, not always objective ones. To their significant credit, they cheer for NU all the time. My wife has even transformed into a diehard NU fan. Loves being in Evanston on gameday for the tailgating and Ryan Field experience. But she'll play it safe on Saturday. As I will.

GOUNUII

 

[Jonny2TheP]

Surprised you guys feel so good about your defense.

ND has been averaging 40+ points/game with Book at QB.

Plus, if you’re really going to play “Bend don’t break” agaisnt him, that would play right into his strengths. Book is literally #1 in the nation in Comp. % and almost all of his production has come by matching the offense down the field in 5 to 10 yard chunks....but he’s struggled agasint more aggressive blitzes and aggressive press coverage.

If you want to see how those aggressive schemes and techniques affected him, just toss on the ND/Pitt game.

Yep, agree with this assessment. Our typical style of defense does not match up well with how the ND offense runs. For that reason, I expect a different philosophy coming into the game Saturday- one that is more aggressive with the corners playing tighter coverage and more blitzing than we typically do (which isn't a ton). Hankwitz is a great d-coordinator and comes up with solid game plans. I'm confident he's got some good ideas from this one. The blueprint of how to slow down the Book led ND offense is out there (as you mention, more aggressive schemes). The question is are we good enough to follow the blueprint and execute.

 

[GOUNUII]

What, specifically, do you think I’ve shaded/favored about ND?

My only issue with your description is giving FAR too much credit to Wisconsin and MSU this year. I’m a badger alum (masters and law school) and work in Madison. I can tell you that this is just not a good Badgers team and has become a total disaster on defense with all of the injured.

For example, the badgers have allowed 700+ Rush Yards at 5.25 YPC during the last 3 weeks. Northwestern was actually much less productive on the ground agaisnt Wisconsin than other recent opponents....we’re that bad.

But I completely agree that Northwestern is a good team that’s going to give 110% agasint ND. No question there.

Preseason, this was the #1 pick for an upset loss...for numerous reasons.

I’d actually love to discuss the matchup, if this board can handle that.
(meaning not just revolve into stupid fighting)

Opining that ND is as good as any team in the Country short of Alabama is what I call shading. They got Michigan at a very good time. They otherwise have nothing on their season resume to support that. Turn on the tape of Pitt/ND and imagine a team with much better defensive personnel than Pitt playing those same schemes. Now add much, much better offensive personnel. Could get ugly against numerous teams short of Alabama.

I have discussed the matchup. Described exactly what ND will face on Saturday. Not in Xs and Os form. But in what I believe to be a more revealing way.

I concur that our normal bend but don't break defense plays into ND's and Book's strengths. I hope that's not what we see at any point in the game. But we have to be realistic with our personnel. We have the front 7 to do it. But without Newsome opposite all BIG Hartage on the corners DC Hank may opt for healthy doses of bend. Whatever he chooses will give us the best chance to win. But agreed. If bend is our best shot, big advantage to ND.

We are strictly a take what they give you offense. Which means the play calling can change dramatically from game to game and even half to half. Third and less than 5 is a goal. Third and 2 or less is ideal. Lots of crossing routes at or near the line of gain. Lot's of zone blocking for the running game between the tackles. We are not going to run wide. We can score points when the vertical passing game is successful. Green and Skowronek and McGowan and Jefferson have all made some big plays downfield in the passing game. Nagel is the go to WR. He crushed MSU and Nebby but was quiet in the win over Bucky.

 

[DaCat]

Surprised you guys feel so good about your defense.

ND has been averaging 40+ points/game with Book at QB.

Plus, if you’re really going to play “Bend don’t break” agaisnt him, that would play right into his strengths. Book is literally #1 in the nation in Comp. % and almost all of his production has come by matching the offense down the field in 5 to 10 yard chunks....but he’s struggled agasint more aggressive blitzes and aggressive press coverage.

If you want to see how those aggressive schemes and techniques affected him, just toss on the ND/Pitt game.

I'm not Mike Hankwitz so I won't be drafting up the defensive game plan this week. Or ever. But I trust that Hank will watch all the film that's available and make the right call on defense. He knows just a little bit more about this than you or me. He definitely has the blitz packages in his arsenal, so if that's what it takes, he'll dial them in.

I just don't have as much faith in our offense brain trust, and just hoping that Thorson has a good/great game, with no turnovers.

 

[ZVZ]

there's always the chance ND overlooks NW

 

[SmellyCat]

there's always the chance ND overlooks NW

There's always the chance they overlook Northwestern and still win. There's also the chance that they don't overlook Northwestern and still lose. I love college football!

 

[StreamCat]

Unfortunately, I will not be watching the game Saturday with my family. We will all be at a family wedding reception when the game kicks off. I am committed to the occasional iphone update on the game's status. The rest of the family doesn't want to know a thing. They are taping it for replay. But will watch only if the Irish win. Because of their professional schedules, they often record the ND games. But replays are limited to the wins. Could this be the first no replay of the season? Am I going to break the news to them if that happens? Haven't decided if I want to be the one to announce "replay" or "no replay." Game day, at the moment decision on that one. Like you Stream I love my Domers dearly. Even the overly invested, not always objective ones. To their significant credit, they cheer for NU all the time. My wife has even transformed into a diehard NU fan. Loves being in Evanston on gameday for the tailgating and Ryan Field experience. But she'll play it safe on Saturday. As I will.

GOUNUII

My Domers are in for the Cats, too. God bless ‘em.

 

[wildcatpn]

There's always the chance they overlook Northwestern and still win. There's also the chance that they don't overlook Northwestern and still lose. I love college football!

Nahhh. Don't you know that the only way ND loses is if they overlook their opponent or hand the game to their opponent? ND has never been beaten by the other team. Here are some of the excuses ND fans are already making if they should somehow lose...

1). They overlooked NU
2). Kelly doesn't have their superior talent focused enough
3). The week after Navy syndrome(whatever that is)
4). Tranquill probably won't play

Also, did you know that there isn't one guy on NU that ND wanted and Fitz used spring ball and most of camp to prepare for this game? Hilarious.

 

[Pete Purple]

So what was the reason when NW lost to the zips

Primary reason: They scored more points.
Also, we only played for 30 minutes.

 

[corbi2961]

Primary reason: They scored more points.
Also, we only played for 30 minutes.

Three turnovers by your QB returned for TDs in one half will do that to you. Pretty much the only way we could cough up a 17 point lead. Sometimes the ball just doesn't bounce your way.

 

[NU Houston]

If you want to see how those aggressive schemes and techniques affected him, just toss on the ND/Pitt game.

I'll just point out that Pitt's DC was a member of the NU coaching staff for 11 years, until leaving after last season to take the position at Pitt.

 

[FriedmanIP]

I'll just point out that Pitt's DC was a member of the NU coaching staff for 11 years, until leaving after last season to take the position at Pitt.

That’s fair.

But that’s Patt Narduzzi’s defesne. It’s the same one he’s been running since all of his years at Michigan State.

Pitt ran the same aggressive blitzing, stunting and twisting up front with the press man coverage on the back end, with a SS walked up near the LOS.

Although, there were some new exotic looks as compared to years passes, so it’s possible that comes from the former NW DC.

 

[EvanstonCat]

That’s fair.

But that’s Patt Narduzzi’s defesne. It’s the same one he’s been running since all of his years at Michigan State.

Pitt ran the same aggressive blitzing, stunting and twisting up front with the press man coverage on the back end, with a SS walked up near the LOS.

Although, there were some new exotic looks as compared to years passes, so it’s possible that comes from the former NW DC.

I'm sure there will be some phone calls made between the DC's of Pitt and NU this week.

 

[Boulder]

You can not beat this offense by focusing on one or a couple of players because Book does a great job of spreading it out. The way to beat us is by applying preasure up the middle. That is what Pitt did and it isnt clear that Book can handle this type of defense.

While on offense, no one has been able to run on us so you have to mix in runs with short passes. The short passes because the line is disruptive and if your QB isnt mobile then the line will get to him.

All that said, lets pray for a injury free game.

One last.....great new facilities.

 

[zonairish]

I'm sure there will be some phone calls made between the DC's of Pitt and NU this week.

What Pitt did was effective on D. Book had a multitude of wide open receivers especially Claypool in the slot. Essentially at will. I think it took a while for Book to settle and once he did it opened up for him and we beat pitt

 

[zeek55]

As long as it's a good game, I'll be happy.

For us the Iowa/Minnesota/Illinois games are more important because they're our shot at winning the division and going to the championship game for a chance at the Rose Bowl.

As much as I'd like a marquee win this season, we'll have future chances if we win the division and go to a good bowl game.