News today

[dtrain79]

You guys are in the denial phase, but that's going to explode in 12 days. Sad place to be, this is the worst environment for a party since 1994 in my opinion. A lot of that is coalitional, Trump created a very tenuous coalition that has come apart at the seams.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

Will closet gay TJ put his money where his mouth is?

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

This the golden age?

 

[Uncoach]

This is exactly what Thune & Co have been up to and they would be wrong and ultimately are not reading the room well at all. We aren’t going to let them cozy up to opening borders and allowing fraud because they want their kickbacks. They are no better than the Democrats.

 

[dtrain79]

This is exactly what Thune & Co have been up to and they would be wrong and ultimately are not reading the room well at all. We aren’t going to let them cozy up to opening borders and allowing fraud because they want their kickbacks. They are no better than the Democrats.

John Thune is like a Democrat might be Dumbcoach’s dumbest ever post.

There had to be one.

 

[tjfleck6]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

Look at these braindead morons in “Normal” Illinois. They are the real Nazis trying to disrupt 1A rights of others.

 

[ILisBest]

Total shocker.

 

[ILisBest]

 

[dtrain79]

The actual modeled electorate is Talarico +2.0, which of course isn't Paxton winning. God forbid anyone here verify that.

All that said, I can remember Dem-aligned modeling told me Hillary was going to win Pennsylvania by 3-4% in 2016 (as the votes were being cast). Because a lot of the voters they tagged as Dem were voting Trump, that wasn't even close. So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in whomever is winning the model.

The critical variable in this and plenty of other races is PERSUASION OF RELATIVELY MODERATE, INDEPENDENT VOTERS. That's how Paxton could lose a Trump by 14 Texas and Susan Collins could win a Harris by high single digit Maine (in spite of a wave against Rs).

The model can't estimate persuasion that well. All it can do is hope persuasion is a wash. I think persuasion is a big deal in Texas this year (that's not always the case).

 

[ILisBest]

 

[ILisBest]

 

[Uncoach]

I’m not sure this is going to do anything for Steve Hilton. California will count “votes” for over a month to get the results the Commie leadership wants. Interesting ad nonetheless.

 

[Uncoach]

 

[tjfleck6]

I’m not sure this is going to do anything for Steve Hilton. California will count “votes” for over a month to get the results the Commie leadership wants. Interesting ad nonetheless.

Just as deranged Train believes in his guy/girl/cis Talaricky, California isn’t happening.

Strength at the top of the ticket can help down ballot candidates.

 

[Uncoach]

Norm has been getting ratio’d regularly thanks to that DataRepublican(small r) and several other for uncovering the entire plot. Their “complaints are already written.”

 

[tjfleck6]

 

[dtrain79]

Just as deranged Train believes in his guy/girl/cis Talaricky, California isn’t happening.

Strength at the top of the ticket can help down ballot candidates.

Talarico quite literally has a 67% chance to win on Kalshi. PREDICTION MARKETS IN 2024 WERE MORE FAVORABLE TO TRUMP THAN POLLS (WHICH HAD THE RACE DEAD EVEN OF COURSE, a whopping 1.8% off on margin).

I'd be surprised if Hilton is above 2-3%, and that's high.

Seth is directionally correct. Cali has lost too many Rs, and over the long haul Texas has gained more Rs than Ds (tho Texas migrants are a bit more politically diverse than he claims). For an example of in migrants really changing things politically, see Florida post-2020. The state got way more R.

 

[dtrain79]

Norm has been getting ratio’d regularly thanks to that DataRepublican(small r) and several other for uncovering the entire plot. Their “complaints are already written.”

So are the Republican complaints. Both sides have teams of election lawyers ready to file dumb, losing lawsuits ala 2020.

 

[dtrain79]

I will check it out next Friday. Will try not to take a swim in it!

 

[AzIllini]

So true.