News today

[dtrain79]

You guys are in the denial phase, but that's going to explode in 12 days. Sad place to be, this is the worst environment for a party since 1994 in my opinion. A lot of that is coalitional, Trump created a very tenuous coalition that has come apart at the seams.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

Will closet gay TJ put his money where his mouth is?

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

This the golden age?

 

[Uncoach]

This is exactly what Thune & Co have been up to and they would be wrong and ultimately are not reading the room well at all. We aren’t going to let them cozy up to opening borders and allowing fraud because they want their kickbacks. They are no better than the Democrats.

 

[dtrain79]

This is exactly what Thune & Co have been up to and they would be wrong and ultimately are not reading the room well at all. We aren’t going to let them cozy up to opening borders and allowing fraud because they want their kickbacks. They are no better than the Democrats.

John Thune is like a Democrat might be Dumbcoach’s dumbest ever post.

There had to be one.

 

[tjfleck6]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

Look at these braindead morons in “Normal” Illinois. They are the real Nazis trying to disrupt 1A rights of others.

 

[ILisBest]

Total shocker.

 

[ILisBest]

 

[dtrain79]

The actual modeled electorate is Talarico +2.0, which of course isn't Paxton winning. God forbid anyone here verify that.

All that said, I can remember Dem-aligned modeling told me Hillary was going to win Pennsylvania by 3-4% in 2016 (as the votes were being cast). Because a lot of the voters they tagged as Dem were voting Trump, that wasn't even close. So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in whomever is winning the model.

The critical variable in this and plenty of other races is PERSUASION OF RELATIVELY MODERATE, INDEPENDENT VOTERS. That's how Paxton could lose a Trump by 14 Texas and Susan Collins could win a Harris by high single digit Maine (in spite of a wave against Rs).

The model can't estimate persuasion that well. All it can do is hope persuasion is a wash. I think persuasion is a big deal in Texas this year (that's not always the case).