News today

[dtrain79]

Disappointing for some

I don't think anyone who understands polling would be disappointed by a poll where Paxton has a one point lead (he trailed in the 5 most recent polls, all taken in the last month). It is a close race, for certain. Which is why it's basically 50/50 in the prediction markets.

Paxton's hope is that the GOP lean of the state saves him. Talarico's hope is that a huge swing of Hispanics and suburban women sinks Paxton.

I think Paxton is more likely than not to lose, because I think the huge Hispanic swing and Paxton being a fairly unique disaster in the burbs is coming. Republicans winning in Texas in 2004 has very little to do with where the state is politically now, though that was certainly a better GOP.

Btw, Andy Biggs is going to get smoked and you will still have a Dem Governor.

 

[ILisBest]

He acts like he doesn't have a job, just being a troll. He is the Governor for God's sake. His party in Florida has pretty much abandoned hm, and his property tax elimination that he thought he would ride into the WH is dead.

I am the opposite side of the coin to everything you say, but when these governors talk about reducing property taxes, it pisses me off. Just do it or don't say anything.

 

[stoneaxe27]

I am the opposite side of the coin to everything you say, but when these governors talk about reducing property taxes, it pisses me off. Just do it or don't say anything.

The proposal was a scam from the get-go. I believe he proposed it for national attention as a prelude to a Presidential run. In Florida, all 67 counties and every municipality have real property taxes as their primary source of income. The fool RDS never proposed a replacement to this revenue that local governments cannot survive without, even though his proposal eliminated this revenue. He was asked over and over by every local government official how local government would survive without revenue. He answered that they would look at possibilities to replace that revenue after the referendum to eliminate property tax passed. A wise leader. That is why his proposal had to be modified numerous times and now is dead in the water. He will never be elected President; he has less personality and charisma than Scott Walker. If they were polling, he would be underwater in Florida.

 

[ILisBest]

Problem solved.

 

[ILisBest]

The proposal was a scam from the get-go. I believe he proposed it for national attention as a prelude to a Presidential run. In Florida, all 67 counties and every municipality have real property taxes as their primary source of income. The fool RDS never proposed a replacement to this revenue that local governments cannot survive without, even though his proposal eliminated this revenue. He was asked over and over by every local government official how local government would survive without revenue. He answered that they would look at possibilities to replace that revenue after the referendum to eliminate property tax passed. A wise leader. That is why his proposal had to be modified numerous times and now is dead in the water. He will never be elected President; he has less personality and charisma than Scott Walker. If they were polling, he would be underwater in Florida.

I would guess this to be false, but I defer to Dtrain on polling. He seems to track the pollsters more than I do.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

There’s been so much winning that this is a WNBA, climate change, and death jab thread now.

 

[dtrain79]

I would guess this to be false, but I defer to Dtrain on polling. He seems to track the pollsters more than I do.

AI tells me his currently approval is low 50s and disapproval low to mid 40s.

I suspect he'd win re-election by 9-12% if he were eligible. Not 2022, but still easy.

 

[ILisBest]

AI tells me his currently approval is low 50s and disapproval low to mid 40s.

I suspect he'd win re-election by 9-12% if he were eligible. Not 2022, but still easy.

Huh, it is so unusual the stoned dude is wrong. Didn't see that coming

 

[stoneaxe27]

Huh, it is so unusual the stoned dude is wrong. Didn't see that coming

AI isn't polling, but it may not be off. Last poll I found was a few months back and he was at 50% approval. What it is now, no one knows as they are polling the ongoing elections and he is not running. I feel confident that his approval has continued to drop as it has since January 1 of this year.

 

[Uncoach]

Disappointing for some

This from a response underneath-

I live in Austin and have a lot of very liberal friends. There is ZERO excitement; there was during the last few elections. None of them is saying anything about "turn Texas Blue". West Texas and the Valley are turning Red every cycle. Beto had the illusion of being a moderate; Talarico does not. There is no chance that Talarico can beat someone who has won statewide election easily 3 times.

Edited for source code error

 

[dtrain79]

AI isn't polling, but it may not be off. Last poll I found was a few months back and he was at 50% approval. What it is now, no one knows as they are polling the ongoing elections and he is not running. I feel confident that his approval has continued to drop as it has since January 1 of this year.

AI is summarizing actual polling results. Have you never used it?

JFC.

 

[BigWill]

Imagine how fast and how many assists CC would have , if her teammates didn't miss 5 - 10 layup passes PER GAME from CC !

 

[BigWill]

Fauci admits the jab wasn’t going to do jack for all of the mutations (which happened quickly), but people still cling to the idea that getting vaxxed saved lives.

Mengala like

 

[BigWill]

Massachusetts' previous law limited abortions after 24 weeks, but with substantial exceptions for the health of the mother, the mental health of the mother, the likelihood of the baby living after birth and maybe one other. All to be determined between the doctor and the patient, not the state.

I think what this law does is remove any legal liability for any reason for a doctor performing an abortion up to birth.

One situation that comes to mind is that the old law probably didn't allow aborting a baby with down syndrome after 24 weeks. If somehow the mother and her doctor didn't abort it before 24 weeks,, there would be hospitals under the old law who would refuse.

Now it is all open, including a woman just changing her mind at 39 weeks - maybe she decides she really doesn't want a baby after all. From my perspective 39 weeks and 24 weeks are the same, the baby is alive. But at least 10 states now allow abortion up to birth, and people living in other states can easily travel, so it essentially is available to just about everyone regardless of where they live.

2 different married couples that we know have experienced either scenario, abortion of a first non convenient infant and the other one a downs baby.

The abortion couple never had another pregnancy and eventually divorced both unhappy and miserable.

The downs baby went full term and was loved for it's short life among the families other children.

Praise be to The Lord.

 

[BigWill]

Problem solved.

Is that Geri West as the logo ?

 

[stoneaxe27]

Mengala like

You guys are idiots. You act like Fauci was the only scientist in the world that had knowledge of the risks and likely course of the virus. EVERY medical physician let alone virologist and the scarf lady knew that the virus would mutate constantly and would require modifications to the vaxx. Hell I knew that, you fools.

 

[BigWill]

I would guess this to be false, but I defer to Dtrain on polling. He seems to track the pollsters more than I do.

He has a wonderful record of following polls !

100 % wrong.

 

[Uncoach]

Sad and sickening.

REVEALED: Horrific injuries, violence suffered by 7-year-old Ohio boy tortured to death by mother, trans lovers: coroner

Dr. Lakshmi Sammarco explained that a blunt force injury to William’s head was what killed him.

thepostmillennial.com

 

[AzIllini]

I'm going to share this very complicated story. I've read at least 10 articles on it, reported from all sides; it may blow up into a big national story about abortion and surrogate/parent's rights or just go away.

A professional couple in S Calif hired a surrogate to have a baby for them and a contract was signed. At 20 weeks the baby was diagnosed with a severe heart defect and the couple asked that it be aborted per the terms of the contract. The surrogate refused and eventually "fled" to Texas.

The baby was born this week and is getting medical surgery for the heart condition, which is a multi stage surgery over the first years of life and the long term prognosis is good to fair (and potentially poor, despite the doctors' skills).

1) the surrogate has lawyered up and wants to gain custody of the baby based on Texas law, which her side believes gives the birth mother custody.
2) the Calif couple has lawyered up and gotten temporary custody of the baby's medical treatment but not of the baby.
3) Ken Paxton's office has intervened to make sure the baby gets necessary treatment which somehow has pissed off the Calif couple's attorney who is attacking him saying it is political grandstanding.

I said it is complicated. Here is one article that mainly talks about custody issues There are many more on the rest.

Surrogate McKenna West vows legal fight against parents of baby they wanted her to abort, lawyer says: ‘She is the mother’

“In Texas, if you give birth to a child, it’s your child,” her lawyer insisted.

nypost.com

 

[Uncoach]

How mentally ill are people who do this? This crazy has 2 felony charges. We will see if Pirro blames the spray paint company and let’s the perp go.

 

[ILisBest]

You guys are idiots. You act like Fauci was the only scientist in the world that had knowledge of the risks and likely course of the virus. EVERY medical physician let alone virologist and the scarf lady knew that the virus would mutate constantly and would require modifications to the vaxx. Hell I knew that, you fools.

Did you continue to vax after the first two times or did you stop there?

 

[ILisBest]

He has a wonderful record of following polls !

100 % wrong.

I don't think he is wrong and usually posts reasoned summaries of the polling. The problem I have is I don't find a lot of the polling to be credible.

 

[dtrain79]

I don't think he is wrong and usually posts reasoned summaries of the polling. The problem I have is I don't find a lot of the polling to be credible.

Mike Rogers up 4% on El Sayed in the first post-primary poll in Michigan! Seems credible to me.

There's a reasoned argument that polling underestimated DJT by 2-3% on average across three Prez elections. Never really more than that. Does that make polling "not credible"? Sure doesn't seem the case to me ... it just makes a decent argument that Trump was modestly undervalued by polling due to the nature of his voters. This was only relevant because, by historical standards, all three of his elections were pretty damn close. If he'd have won or lost by a lot ... totally irrelevant.

Separately, polling tends to give hyperpartisans feedback they don't want to hear. Ken Paxton and Abdul El Sayed are obvious underperformers in polling (and then in elections, even if both barely win). They are loved by hyperpartisans on their teams, but lose the middle. So the hyperpartisans refuse to look inward and instead attack polling.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

How mentally ill are people who do this? This crazy has 2 felony charges. We will see if Pirro blames the spray paint company and let’s the perp go.

Dumbcoach believes the reflecting pool was vandalized and not just a botch job by a no-bid contractor. Dumbcoach is dumb.

 

[dtrain79]

Dumbcoach believes the reflecting pool was vandalized and not just a botch job by a no-bid contractor. Dumbcoach is dumb.

The fact that Trump's DOJ was prosecuting people for the reflecting pool failure is one of the most disgusting, authoritarian, two-bit things I've ever seen in American politics. Highly reflective of his nonexistent character.

He could have simply acknowledged it failed and demanded Congress approve funds for an actual fix ... go figure!

 

[BigWill]

I challenged you to 5 miles not a 5k and I offered a handicap and put up $1k. It worked too. It proved you’re a ***** and just play pretend on the internet. You haven’t stopped thinking about how inadequate you are since.

I advised you to contribute $ 1,000 to a great charity like 9/11 Foundation !

Let's see a photo of the cancelled check !

 

[BigWill]

Sad and sickening.

REVEALED: Horrific injuries, violence suffered by 7-year-old Ohio boy tortured to death by mother, trans lovers: coroner

Dr. Lakshmi Sammarco explained that a blunt force injury to William’s head was what killed him.

thepostmillennial.com

Incidents like this happen all over the world, this is the pent-ultimate job of the Justice System. Identify, arrest, try, imprison for life with NO chance of parole !

No I have never come in contact with anything so horrendous.

 

[BigWill]

Mike Rogers up 4% on El Sayed in the first post-primary poll in Michigan! Seems credible to me.

There's a reasoned argument that polling underestimated DJT by 2-3% on average across three Prez elections. Never really more than that. Does that make polling "not credible"? Sure doesn't seem the case to me ... it just makes a decent argument that Trump was modestly undervalued by polling due to the nature of his voters. This was only relevant because, by historical standards, all three of his elections were pretty damn close. If he'd have won or lost by a lot ... totally irrelevant.

Separately, polling tends to give hyperpartisans feedback they don't want to hear. Ken Paxton and Abdul El Sayed are obvious underperformers in polling (and then in elections, even if both barely win). They are loved by hyperpartisans on their teams, but lose the middle. So the hyperpartisans refuse to look inward and instead attack polling.

So now not following polling that has been proven to be inaccurate or biased in now labeled as "hyperpartisans" instead of just inaccurate/biased.

 

[BigWill]

The fact that Trump's DOJ was prosecuting people for the reflecting pool failure is one of the most disgusting, authoritarian, two-bit things I've ever seen in American politics. Highly reflective of his nonexistent character.

He could have simply acknowledged it failed and demanded Congress approve funds for an actual fix ... go figure!

A lawyer should have the knowledge of what "prosecuted" means.

But terminal, long lasting TDS is an issue.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

I advised you to contribute $ 1,000 to a great charity like 9/11 Foundation !

Let's see a photo of the cancelled check !

I advised you to mind your own ******* business.

 

[dtrain79]

So now not following polling that has been proven to be inaccurate or biased in now labeled as "hyperpartisans" instead of just inaccurate/biased.

How does it feel to be a profound idiot? Yesterday, stonedax didn't understand how AI works, today you don't understand "margin of error." Go figure.

If polling is 2% off the margin, it's doing pretty well. No one thinks about that when the winner wins by 10% instead of 8%. But when it goes from one guy up 1% to the other guy winning by 1% ... people blame polling.

 

[dtrain79]

A lawyer should have the knowledge of what "prosecuted" means.

But terminal, long lasting TDS is an issue.

What are you talking about? Multiple people were charged with crimes for "damaging the reflecting pool." The charges were dropped because they were, as everyone with a working brain knew, based on Trump's feelings and not reality. That's Kim Jong Un type ****, tho Un's bunch is competent enough to end the story with the person charged with a crime thrown into the gulag, here it will ultimately end with the guy wrongfully arrested and charged getting a settlement from my taxes, awesome.

 

[Uncoach]

HHS releases report exposing fraudulent insurance coding for sex-rejecting procedures on minors-

https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/hhs-report-insurance-coding-sex-rejecting-procedures-minors.html

 

[Uncoach]

So now not following polling that has been proven to be inaccurate or biased in now labeled as "hyperpartisans" instead of just inaccurate/biased.

Very few pollsters are accurate. Of course it was much easier when everyone had land lines.