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[ILisBest]

Is Florida a 50/50 state? Where'd you come up with that from? Florida has not elected a Democratic Governor since 1994.

Florida's migration in 2020-23 was overwhelmingly GOP. This kind of stuff is pretty easy to validate with a simple Google search.

It's a 50/50 country because each side is basically guaranteed about 43-44% baseline, and the 12-15% of swing voters go back and forth in their preferences, typically mad at the incumbent party. At some point one of the parties will make more inroads among the swing voters by doing a good job in office, we'll see which one.

From the 2018 election data before their election reforms:

Ron DeSantis (RDS) won the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election with 49.59% of the vote.He narrowly defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum (49.19%) by about 32,463 votes out of more than 8.2 million total votes cast. Other candidates received the remaining ~1.2%. Key details from official/certified results:

• DeSantis (Republican): 4,076,186 votes (49.59%)
• Gillum (Democrat): 4,043,723 votes (49.19%

 

[ILisBest]

RDS. election results post the election reforms he put into Florida:

Ron DeSantis was reelected on November 8, 2022, in the Florida gubernatorial election. This was the general election date (the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, as is standard for U.S. elections). He defeated Democrat Charlie Crist in a landslide, winning about 59.4% to Crist’s 40.0% (a ~19.4-point margin)—the largest for a Florida gubernatorial candidate in decades.

 

[ILisBest]

So you are informed, the Supreme Court has before it a case out of Mississippi that challenges a state's ability to count votes received after Election Day. The Court appears poised to rule that such ballots should not count. Arguably, this benefits Republicans (and maybe it will in the fall), but ultimately voters will adjust by making sure their ballots arrive timely.

Unfortunately, this won't force California to count faster, but it will force them to have all ballots allowed to count by ED, which should accelerate the process some.

I'm not much for federal election administration, but I'd love a law that compels states to have say 95% of the vote counted within 24 hours of polls closing. That would eliminate much of the nonsense surrounding the long counts (which are not evidence of cheating but are incredibly stupid/annoying/absurd).

Yup, I knew this case is currently pending. I appreciate the context.

 

[dtrain79]

From 2018 before their election reforms:

Ron DeSantis (RDS) won the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election with 49.59% of the vote.He narrowly defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum (49.19%) by about 32,463 votes out of more than 8.2 million total votes cast. Other candidates received the remaining ~1.2%. Key details from official/certified results:

• DeSantis (Republican): 4,076,186 votes (49.59%)
• Gillum (Democrat): 4,043,723 votes (49.19%

Why does partisanship have to govern opinions?

2018 was a terrible year for the GOP nationally. RDS was seen as tied to Trump as his primary campaign was very Trump-heavy, and voters were mad at Trump. RDS actually only won because Gillum had scandal issues (and that's before he got busted in a drug-fueled gay sexcapade). The GOP - which had won every election in Florida for Gov since a loss in 1994 - was in a bad spot. But RDS won close, which we both know.

RDS won in an absolute blowout four years later. In the intervening four years, these things happened:

1. The 2022 national House vote was roughly 10% more Republican than the 2018 vote. That is, by merely existing and mirroring the federal results, RDS goes from a half point win to a 10.5% win.

2. RDS was lauded as the most effective Governor on Covid policy. He certainly was the most knowledgeable, and he received high marks from FL voters regarding his ability to manage reopening without disaster.

3. RDS presided over several hurricane responses praised for their effectiveness. Remember the bridge rebuild in like 24-48 hours. I do.

4. RDS passed sensible conservative legislation that voters liked.

5. Florida had a bunch of Covid migrants. They were much more right leaning than left leaning. Most Dems actually like the crappy policy, they weren't moving to FL to rip it up under RDS.

6. Hispanic voters - particularly the ones with less connection to Mexico and more to the Caribbean and South America - began trending much further right. Florida is filled with these voters. In 2024, voters with more central American ties also flooded right, tho a lot are snapping back, big problem for Kenny P.

Bottom line, 2022 was a much better year for Rs, the RDS coalition hugely expanded, and one of the main Dem voting blocs in Florida (FL Hispanics) trended massively right. (I think it's worth noting that, while Rs didn't win in New York in 2022, Dem margins collapsed. Dems went from winning the Gov race there in 2018 by 23 to winning in 2022 by 7. I'm pretty sure NY didn't pass election reform.)

I say things like "popular/good governance wins you votes," and apparently that's just lost on the right now. Trump governs like an imbecile (no, I don't think everything he does is a miss), and of course people respond poorly. RDS crushes it, and he probably gets a 8-10% bump from the quality of his governing in his state (the other half of the bump was national environment).

Me personally, seems like the party should have chosen Ron in 2024.

 

[Semi-elite R2R athlete]

Why does partisanship have to govern opinions?

2018 was a terrible year for the GOP nationally. RDS was seen as tied to Trump as his primary campaign was very Trump-heavy, and voters were mad at Trump. RDS actually only won because Gillum had scandal issues (and that's before he got busted in a drug-fueled gay sexcapade). The GOP - which had won every election in Florida for Gov since a loss in 1994 - was in a bad spot. But RDS won close, which we both know.

RDS won in an absolute blowout four years later. In the intervening four years, these things happened:

1. The 2022 national House vote was roughly 10% more Republican than the 2018 vote. That is, by merely existing and mirroring the federal results, RDS goes from a half point win to a 10.5% win.

2. RDS was lauded as the most effective Governor on Covid policy. He certainly was the most knowledgeable, and he received high marks from FL voters regarding his ability to manage reopening without disaster.

3. RDS presided over several hurricane responses praised for their effectiveness. Remember the bridge rebuild in like 24-48 hours. I do.

4. RDS passed sensible conservative legislation that voters liked.

5. Florida had a bunch of Covid migrants. They were much more right leaning than left leaning. Most Dems actually like the crappy policy, they weren't moving to FL to rip it up under RDS.

6. Hispanic voters - particularly the ones with less connection to Mexico and more to the Caribbean and South America - began trending much further right. Florida is filled with these voters. In 2024, voters with more central American ties also flooded right, tho a lot are snapping back, big problem for Kenny P.

Bottom line, 2022 was a much better year for Rs, the RDS coalition hugely expanded, and one of the main Dem voting blocs in Florida (FL Hispanics) trended massively right. (I think it's worth noting that, while Rs didn't win in New York in 2022, Dem margins collapsed. Dems went from winning the Gov race there in 2018 by 23 to winning in 2022 by 7. I'm pretty sure NY didn't pass election reform.)

I say things like "popular/good governance wins you votes," and apparently that's just lost on the right now. Trump governs like an imbecile (no, I don't think everything he does is a miss), and of course people respond poorly. RDS crushes it, and he probably gets a 8-10% bump from the quality of his governing in his state (the other half of the bump was national environment).

Me personally, seems like the party should have chosen Ron in 2024.

RDS would’ve accomplished all the wins Trump has this term (and likely more) without all the clown show nonsense that’s going to lead to midterm disaster. GOP basically punted 4-8 years by electing the clown.