No. We barely survived them and you want to play them again? Wins against teams like that do nothing to move the needle either.
Magic Number is 2
- Thread starter gordel1
- Start date
You mean Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue are better than Maryland , Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State ? That is not what the standings say, but I get your pessimism. Having watched the grit and toughness of this team , 2 of 4 road wins is doable and not a long shot.
Not if the young players are shooters.
Rutgers has loss 3 road games because they didn't make shots at crunch time.
Bingo. My constant refrain has been that I GUARANTEE the NCAA Tournament Committee puts 68 teams in this year. Pretty much a lock.
.32 auto bids and 36 at large bids. Barring an upset in conference tournament (so remove one "autobid" from the top 8 conferences listed above) that gives you for "at larges": 9 B1G, 4 BE, 3 SEC/Pac 12/Big 12, 2 ACC/A10/WCC.
That is still only 28 of 36 at large bids. You need to find 9 more "worthy" teams to get the B1G under 10. The B1G is, at a minimum, a 9 bid league and more likely 10 or 11. Watch.
We are presenting a 6 or 7 seed. We win one road game that seed is solidified, preferably Ohio State this Wednesday night. We are 3-5 in Quad 1, 3-1 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3 and 7-0 in Quad 4. We only have 5 Quad 1 games and 2 Quad 2 games left, and Illinois and Michigan are 34 and 32 , so only 4 spots away from all the games being Quad 1. St . Bonnie’s , who had a few people thinking was a bad loss is not a bad loss as they are up to 113, only 13 away from Quad 2, that would make us 10-0 against Quad 3 and 4 , something most of the bubble can’t claim. SFA at 84 is only 9 away from another Quad 1 win and Wisconsin is at 33, only 3 away from another Quad 1 win. Both of them likely tourney teams. We have not been blown out up until now and almost every team on the bubble has been , and our road losses in January and February are by 5, 5, 3 and 6. By the way we are 16-0 at home, the best record in the country . Everybody is worrying about getting in but my focus is on winning the Big 10 or getting the double bye, so that we can win the regular season and tourney championships. The Big 10 winner is likely to have 6 or 7 losses. If we can get Ohio State on Wednesday , then I love our chances of getting Illinois and Michigan at home and being 11-5 with 4 to go. Bubble talk ends , seeding talk starts.
Things are breaking right for the B1G. I predict 10 teams make it. Including RU.
One at a time. If I am Rutgers, I am thinking bigger than just making it though.
One at a time. If I am Rutgers, I am thinking bigger than just making it though.
I would agree. I had at OSU as a win all year and now that Geo broke out I think we can ride the momentum to a breakout shooting game for the whole team. We are beyond due for one. I know Wisconsin is always so tough at home but we really bullied them last time. Illinois and Michigan now with Livers back will be very tough games.
Agree, don't want to be waiting on Selection Sunday praying to get our name called if we only win 2 more. Let's go take it and win at least 3 more; not going to be easy, but can be done. If we win our last 3 home games, we're in no matter what, being undefeated at home. Let's go do that and we write our ticket; steal one on the road, even better.
These are still people making subjective choices rather than a selection by strict formula. If they were basing it on NET rankings, I agree we would be in. But the NET is just a handout they are told to use as an aid. If the NET ranking were the final basis, there would be no need for a selection committee, they would just round out the conference champions with the top teams in NET rankings.
Hopefully I am wrong and we are comfortably in. I just don't see it unless we play decently down the stretch when all these guys/girls are paying attention.
You are off on the SFA comment not to be picky. They are at 84 and would be another Quad 2 win if they move up to the top 15, not quad 1. Would be huge if the bonnie's move up to a Quad 2 standpoint (even if it is a loss as it is better than a Quad 3 one). I for one think 20 is the magic number to get us 11 BIG wins and not have to worry about anything in the BIG Tourney but as others have said depending on how bubble falls 19 could do it too.I love the optimism in the post but right now just worry about Wednesday and getting the next one. OSU got waxed by Wisconsin so they will be hungry and motivated so we need to bring our best. The thing is we have won there before and this team has come close on the road so I know they will be confident.
I know we are Rutgers centric but there are 2 things to consider for the B1G
A) Michigan State has lost 3 games in a row....they play at Illinois tomorrow, who has lost 2 straight....Michigan State then has to host Maryland and still has to go to Maryland in a couple of weeks.
B) The league is in "bac" terms, "cannibalizing itself".
I'm only mentioning this because if Michigan State somehow lost 4 or 5 games in a row, during a timeframe where they usually step on the gas in February and start winning games, we could have a situation where a lot of the seeds are bunched together from 5 seed range to 10 .I could be wrong, but Maryland might be the only one now in the Top 4 seedings when all is said and done.
Since there are so many teams possibly in the 6 to 10 range and you obviously are not going to have an NCAA game with teams from the same conference, the seeding may NOT be truly based on where the teams should in theory be ranked in NET rankings, but to make the best TV matchups for 1st or potential 2nd round games. So a 10 seed may really be more in line ranking wise to a 8 or even a 7 seed....
A) Michigan State has lost 3 games in a row....they play at Illinois tomorrow, who has lost 2 straight....Michigan State then has to host Maryland and still has to go to Maryland in a couple of weeks.
B) The league is in "bac" terms, "cannibalizing itself".
I'm only mentioning this because if Michigan State somehow lost 4 or 5 games in a row, during a timeframe where they usually step on the gas in February and start winning games, we could have a situation where a lot of the seeds are bunched together from 5 seed range to 10 .I could be wrong, but Maryland might be the only one now in the Top 4 seedings when all is said and done.
Since there are so many teams possibly in the 6 to 10 range and you obviously are not going to have an NCAA game with teams from the same conference, the seeding may NOT be truly based on where the teams should in theory be ranked in NET rankings, but to make the best TV matchups for 1st or potential 2nd round games. So a 10 seed may really be more in line ranking wise to a 8 or even a 7 seed....
BTN touched upon this in the recap after the game last night. All the analysts were in agreement that the reveal of the top 16 showed that the committee is not valuing the total strength of the Big 10. They brought up WVU as an example of receiving a 2 over Maryland and also that Penn State should have been included in the top 16. There has been a trend in the last few years where I see seeding of Big 10 teams at least one if not two behind others schools. The committee plays favorites with the top programs in the Big 12 and ACC.
when I was running through my numbers, I think I am going to have all four seven seeds from the Big 10
I stand corrected about SFA being close to Quad 2 not Quad 1 but they are a tourney team if they win their conference plus they lost to Duke the game after we beat them so if that is going to be held against us as a Quad 3 win , it has to be held against overrated Duke as a Quad 3 loss. I understand the Net is a sorting tool, but Kenpom and all the metrics have us in the same area as a 6,7 or 8 seed. We are in real real good shape. Disaster was avoided yesterday as well as ending the losing streak.
Given that the committee is made up of humans, and humans who tend to consume sports media, do you think the downplaying of the B1G in favor of the ACC/B12 is partly due to ESPN's pushing of their ACC/B12/SEC products over Fox's B1G product?
Only 26 teams in the country have more Quad 1 wins than Rutgers. Rutgers is the only team in the country with 7 Quad 1 games remaining.
Given that our last 7 games are against 5 Quad 1 teams and 2 that are just a hair outside of Quad 1 (for now - UM/Ill at home are just outside the NET top 30), I'm certain that 3 more regular season wins to get us to 20-11/11-9 (I "count" the Caldwell win, as it was a game on our schedule) gets us in, easily, as an 8/9 seed.
I feel pretty confident that 2 more regular season wins gets us in at 19-12/10-10, but that a loss to a NW/NE in the first round could be enough to knock us out, whereas a loss to a Q1/Q2 team might not knock us out. II also think 2 more regular season wins and 1 in the B1G tourney locks us up. Of course, I'd rather win 3 more regular season games and not have to worry - or, better yet, win 4+ and be playing for seeding!
I feel pretty confident that 2 more regular season wins gets us in at 19-12/10-10, but that a loss to a NW/NE in the first round could be enough to knock us out, whereas a loss to a Q1/Q2 team might not knock us out. II also think 2 more regular season wins and 1 in the B1G tourney locks us up. Of course, I'd rather win 3 more regular season games and not have to worry - or, better yet, win 4+ and be playing for seeding!
The Thursday game in the B1Gt probably is not against NEB or NW. It will be against the 11th or 12th seed that probably knows they dance if they just beat Rutgers.
Generally agree with your comments (just posted something similar about our 7 remaining games being 5 Q1 games with the other 2 almost Q1, which makes a 2-5 finish not a catastrophe for getting in). One correction though: SFA was at home, so at 84 they're still Q3, but just 9 away from Q2 - but doubt they have the firepower on their schedule to move up much. However, if they lose in their tourney, they'll get a lot of support to make it, based on the road win at Duke and love for the underdog, if they win out to finish 28-3 and that steals one bid from someone.
I really don't think it's a matter of how many more wins we need. It will come down to how many total wins in conference we have
As I have mentioned before the Big will be getting anywhere from 8 to 12 teams I the tourney. Probably closer to 9 or 10. Where we land in the Big will determine if we are going dancing. 2 more wins gets us to 10 wins before Big tourney. This probably puts us above 9th in league.
Michigan Ohio St and Indy have to win 5 of their next 8 to get to 10 wins. Minny needs 4 of 7 and Wisconsin and Purdue need 3 of 7.
That 6 teams with less wins than us and not all of them can get to 10 wins
As I have mentioned before the Big will be getting anywhere from 8 to 12 teams I the tourney. Probably closer to 9 or 10. Where we land in the Big will determine if we are going dancing. 2 more wins gets us to 10 wins before Big tourney. This probably puts us above 9th in league.
Michigan Ohio St and Indy have to win 5 of their next 8 to get to 10 wins. Minny needs 4 of 7 and Wisconsin and Purdue need 3 of 7.
That 6 teams with less wins than us and not all of them can get to 10 wins
They may be able to sneak up to 75th if they win out through the end of their tournament and finish 30-3 (with the final two wins coming over Nicholls and Sam Houston St, the next two best ranked teams in Southland)... but it might depend on how the teams above them perform for the rest of the way.
I’d asked this before. Previously this was a factor. So for example you win your first 19 and lose eleven in a row it doesnt matter at all ? Truth is it seems pretty fair to me. 3 more we should be in. If we only won 2 more I wouldn’t think our resume would be deserving. Let’s win wed!
This is irrelevant and wrong. There is basically 100% chance at least 9 Big Ten teams make it and 11 is looking very likely.
12 is more likely than 9.
I would hesitate to call 2 a "magic number", although I do think 19-13 (10-10) has a better than 50% chance of getting in assuming we don't draw Nebraska or Northwestern somehow in our first BTT game.
If we finish 19-12 and do draw one of those two, we probably need to win that game as well.
If we get to 20-11 or better in the regular season we are very likely to get in.
I would say the magic number is 3.
If we finish 19-12 and do draw one of those two, we probably need to win that game as well.
If we get to 20-11 or better in the regular season we are very likely to get in.
I would say the magic number is 3.
First.. you say the same thing I did when I said I would not count on the 10th and 11th. You say 100% chance of 9. I did not disagree.
Second.. 12 more likely than 9 is, as you say, wrong and irrelevant. You don't know that. There is zero history of anyone getting 12, EVER. The 16 team Big East once managed 11.
body of work.....but obviously when you are losing alot toward the end it hurts because your metrics are falling and some other teams who are finishing strong down the stretch have rising metrics.
Not doubting any of your points totally in agreement. A blemish was avoided yesterday that could have been a landmine. Now all plus opportunities ahead. SFA was a good win whether its quad 2 or 3 thats a tourney team that i think could win a 5/12 matchup type seeding.
We have done some good things..no one can take that away.
The road issue is unfortunate. I would to get a quality road win. A key thing to keep in mind is that no loss from here on out is considered a bad loss
3 wins will definitely get us in
2 wins yes if it Maryland and at Penn St
The just 2 more wins idea may get us in but we wont know that for another 10 days
Watch what teams outside the bubble in the ACC, Big 12, SEC, and AAC do in the games vs Quad 1 competition. There are always school who make late runs as well as late swoons
The road issue is unfortunate. I would to get a quality road win. A key thing to keep in mind is that no loss from here on out is considered a bad loss
3 wins will definitely get us in
2 wins yes if it Maryland and at Penn St
The just 2 more wins idea may get us in but we wont know that for another 10 days
Watch what teams outside the bubble in the ACC, Big 12, SEC, and AAC do in the games vs Quad 1 competition. There are always school who make late runs as well as late swoons