After this weekends results that seemingly 90% went in RU favor that I feel more confident that 2 more wins should get this done. Obviously not a 100% lock but it’ll be close to it. However, there is a worst case scenario that if RU just wins 1 more game and somehow has to play NW/Neb in the first round of the BTT then It’ll be shaky at best. Preferable obviously to plug the road win portion of the resume but it’s not essential. The 2 wins can come from anywhere on the schedule.
Magic Number is 2
- Thread starter gordel1
- Start date
Bac and others follow this more closely than I do so I will defer to them but my initial thought would be 2 more wins gives us about a 50/50 shot, maybe less.
Our NET is 31 right now. I assume 2-6 (including B1G tournament R1 loss) would have to drop us into the 40s, right?
Our NET is 31 right now. I assume 2-6 (including B1G tournament R1 loss) would have to drop us into the 40s, right?
So hard to predict. They took St. John's last year with a 71 NET!
Too many games left on the schedule and the BIG10 is way too tight to be putting out a magic number of 2.
2, if in, would probably be Dayton
no reason we can't win the next 3 in a row, and official punch the ticket vs Michigan
The team that has always gotten in the way..
no reason we can't win the next 3 in a row, and official punch the ticket vs Michigan
The team that has always gotten in the way..
If we control Wesson the OSU offense falls into an unfixable funk. Hopefully we are ready for this one.
OSU even at home i think is beatable.
If we win 2 of 7 id be concerned. We would need to then win 1 in the BTT.
WE HAVE 7 GAMES LEFT. THAT IS HUGE.
OSU even at home i think is beatable.
If we win 2 of 7 id be concerned. We would need to then win 1 in the BTT.
WE HAVE 7 GAMES LEFT. THAT IS HUGE.
I don't think any of our remaining games are must wins now. Any one of them would be a good win, and none would be a bad loss. Just win three of them (any three) and we are in fantastic position to dance. If we only get two more, it will be a nerve-wracking selection Sunday unless we also make a run in the B1G tournament and add more quality wins.
Last night was the closest to a must win we had left, because it would've been a bad Q3 loss. If we don't lose to NW or Nebraska in the B1G tournament, no more of those coming our way.
there is literally no reason to believe we can win 2 of 4 games on the road
I think if we went 2-5 in our last 7 and 1-1 in the B1G tournament, we would be better than 50-50 to make it. If we go 3-4 in the regular season, I think we're in regardless of B1G Tourney.
We really need to win the home games and avenge those 3 road losses. By the time we play UMD, they may have the #1 seed wrapped up and be slightly less motivated. It's all there in front of us. Obviously a win on Wednedsday would give us some breathing room but it will be a tall order.
We really need to win the home games and avenge those 3 road losses. By the time we play UMD, they may have the #1 seed wrapped up and be slightly less motivated. It's all there in front of us. Obviously a win on Wednedsday would give us some breathing room but it will be a tall order.
I’m uncomfortable with any less than 20 going into the big 10 tourney.
Also no reason to believe we can't win 2 of the 4 games on the road. Short of MSU in December, the subsequent B1G road contests have been one possession games in the waning minutes.
yes we have been in every one right to the end, i get it. but closing on the road usually comes last for a young team.
Well, we're getting near the end of the season... whatever else comes to them, it'll be what comes last.
NO!
The GRF UNOFFICIAL PROBABILITIES ARE....
at OSU 30%
ILL 55%
MICH 60%
at WISC 30%
at PSU 25%
MD 50%
at PUR 30%
sum them up and you get 2.8 wins. I think being realistic we have to win at least 1 of MICH and ILL.
Not sure most will agree....
I think we have a better chance of winning 1 of (at OSU and at WISC) vs winning both ILL and MICH
I think we have a better chance of winning 1 of (at OSU and at WISC) vs winning both ILL and MICH
Can't see us getting in with only 19 wins - since we have done nothing on the road. Think we need 20
Johnson needs to remember how to play center or we have no chance. There were 2-3 moments he looked dominant and I know he can look like that much more
I am willing to bet and take your 3-1 odds at OSU and Wisconsin and the 4-1 odds at Penn State. Even though our past has shown an inability to finish the job on the road usually, I would take my chances with those odds with this team......
Best of Luck,
Groz
I forgot about the B1Gt in the analysis....that really is the 8th game. even if probabilty is 40% that puts our expected win total above 3.
.....and the reason 2 probably isnt enough
.....and the reason 2 probably isnt enough
One given ... Wisconsin almost never loses at home. No matter who the opponent is. And this is not a one year fact. It’s their history.
If the wins are at Penn State and Maryland yes. Even Illinois and Maryland should be enough.
We will know more next week as the bubblecreally fleshes itself out
We will know more next week as the bubblecreally fleshes itself out
Anyone else think we might benefit somewhat from being in the first grouping of four in the BTT rather than getting the bye? We might need an extra win and would end up against Nebby or NW. If the season ended today we're likely playing Indiana or Michigan in the second round after a bye.
If we are in 11th or 12th place that means we likely did quite poor down the stretch..ie 9-11 so no i wouldnt want to be in that situation
If we only win 2 more regular season games and then get immediately bounced in the B1G tournament, then I believe we would get left out. Going 3-8 in the final 11 games would hurt our perception immensely.
I think we need 3 more regular season wins and get to an 11-9 conference record to punch our ticket.
If we finish with less than 3 wins, then I think we would need a win or two in the tournament.
I think we need 3 more regular season wins and get to an 11-9 conference record to punch our ticket.
If we finish with less than 3 wins, then I think we would need a win or two in the tournament.
True, but let's be honest.....wins will be hard to come by. Let's say we get two more wins and finish with 19, and 10-10 in conference. In that situation I think you could end up either 11th or 10th depending on how the rest of league performs....and ending up 11th rather than 10th would be advantageous.
The ncaa committee does not look at how you finish. Of course how you finish will effect your overall metrics and record but they dont look at it saying this team lost 7 of 10. Its body of work
- despite rumors that Big Ten may get 11 bids.. it has only gotten max 8 in the past. I would not count on the 10th and 11th spots being there even if those teams have better resumes compared to others
- I think that means out finish position in the conference is very important. If we finish above number 8 I think we are in. I cannot see them taking the 10th place finisher over the 7th just because of more road wins.
- I think that means out finish position in the conference is very important. If we finish above number 8 I think we are in. I cannot see them taking the 10th place finisher over the 7th just because of more road wins.
Conference standings are not a criteria for the committee. It's not something that's considered in any fashion.
There are currently 10 B1G teams in the NET Top 40... 25% of the Top 40 teams are from the same conference.
By comparison:
10 - B1G
5 - Big East
4 - SEC, Pac 12, Big 12
3 - ACC, Atlantic 10, WCC
1 - MWC, AAC, MVC
It's hard to find other major conferences that are going to see more than 4-5 bids this year... which opens the door a bit for more than 8 bids from the B1G. Right now, we're the 7th highest rated B1G program at 31... but there are three more B1G programs from 32-34.
4-3 down the stretch gets us in IMO. Only 2-3 more wins is a crap shoot and would require a significant run in the B1G tournament (2-3 wins) to seal the deal. UNLESS those 3 regular season wins are Illinois, Maryland and @ PSU.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
If one of the 2 wins is maryland then I think RU is a lock. That would mean two top 10 wins vs maryland and SHU.
If Geo is really back which he looked to be last night then that's huge because now we have someone who can put the round thing in the cylinder.
If Geo is really back which he looked to be last night then that's huge because now we have someone who can put the round thing in the cylinder.