Good point but Wichita State didn't beat any good teams. Dayton is their best win and that was a back and forth down to the wire game.
Kentucky Got Screwed.
- Thread starter SchmidtyNole_rivals
- Start date
What was the purpose of making a post like that at this point and juncture? Just seems unuseful.
If they're not good enough to beat Wichita State, they don't deserve to be a number 2 seed anyway.
You doubt it will happen if we lose? The KY haters abound. We have many in our own fan base. They have been vile this year.
Oh, I'm sure fans will be upset over two straight early exits...I will too. If we are going to continue to play this OAD game and not have the results we have had before last year, then Cal will deserve some heat. However, you've lured me into discussing something that may not happen and for that I apologize.
So you legitimately think Wichita is a top 5 team because Pomeroy has them top 5? lol
You know who else is way overrated? Gonzaga is +2.5 points better than the second place team, UVA 10th, St. Mary's 14th.
Also way underrated, Kansas 9th, UCLA 18th, Arizona 20th. Pomeroy is a nice metric but it has it's faults, especially with mid major teams, and is hardly a clear cut indicator of overall strength.
For example, the rankings composite averages out 74 ranking systems. Wichita is only 18th on there.
Underseeded, yes, probably should have been a 7 based on resume, they didn't have the resume to deserve better, so pretty much irrelevant as we would have played a 7 if Dayton won.
Much better teams are usually bigger favorites than 3.
You might be underrating Wichita St a little bit.
No. And I don't think I ever said that I did think of them as top 5.
But like u said......take the full composite.......so 18th?
That's alot different than a 10 seed........or even a 7 seed. That suggests 4/5 seed. Much tougher than a second round game should be.
They have beaten NO ONE!! There schedule is horrible. They are Ole Miss of the SEC. It will be close for 30 minutes and we will win by 10-12pts at end. Got my tickets for Memphis.
But they didn't have the resume to be a 4 or 5 seed. No ranking is going to change the fact that they beat nobody and had a **** schedule.
People arent upset at the seeding. Wichita St got what they deserved in terms of seeding.
Regardless of that, when the ball tips at 2:45 tomorrow, that's not going to matter. It's not going to change the fact that UK has to play a tougher opponent than they should as a 2 seed had the committee just used decent metrics.
I mean you have 74 computer systems on that massy composite rankings and they average 18th. That's way different than 10 seed. I think it at least needs to be looked into by the committee as there is obviously a huge gap with some of these mid majors.
Wichita is 32 in the NCAA RPI. As others have said, no reason to overvalue kenpom.
Actually, I don't think too many UK fans are worried about this matchup. But it provides something else to complain about so the conspiracy theorists latch onto it.
Actually, I don't think too many UK fans are worried about this matchup. But it provides something else to complain about so the conspiracy theorists latch onto it.
Well I must have saw their worst five games this year. They just don't look as good as UK. UK beat mid majors as bad as Wichita did. Stephen F Austin, Duquesne, Cleveland State, Valpo, UT Martin, Canisius, and Hofstra are on the same level as the Missouri Valley teams that Wichita dominated.
Wichita didn't have the resume to deserve better than. The two sentences I have isolated at the top of the quote contradict each other.
And lastly, all the metric generally struggle with ranking mid-major teams who play weak schedules. That's why the standard deviation with Wichita's ranking on the composite is massive at 10.68. One ranking has them as high as 3, another has them as low s 47. No one else in the top 30 has a standard deviation about 8.68. You don't generally find that kind of standard deviation until you get to the bubble teams and the teams seeded 8 and below. Maryland was the only team with a standard deviation above 9 to get higher than an 8 seed, and it's pretty much universally recognized that Maryland was way overseeded.
Except they don't contradict at all.
The committee bases their seeding on resumes. Wichita St did not have a good one because they played no one. In my mock draft, I had Wichita St a 10 seed. Exactly what they ended up getting.
But Good/Bad resume doesn't always equate to good/bad team.
It's perfectly ok to say this team deserves X seed because they didn't have a good resume but they have the talent level that's better/worse than X seed.
They got a 10 based on resume. They have talent to suggest a 4/5 seed IMO.
You do get a wide standard deviation with them and your right. It shows that it's hard for people to judge how good this team really is. So what do you do in that circumstance. Wisdom of the crowds. Usually if you take the average, that's a pretty good estimator on where they are at.
IMO we are looking at a 15-20 ranked team. Not a 10. Not a 7. A 4/5.
The rankings composite had Troy 135 entering the tournament, Northern Kentucky 126. Theoretically there shouldn't be much difference. If Kentucky had played well it would have been a big blowout.
Wichita State may be a 5 seed, but really? If Kentucky is not good enough to beat them
at this point, then we have a problem.
I am not happy with how strong the South region is, and that Ky has many tough games
to play, but this is March Madness, there are very few teams gonna lay down and let
us roll over them.
You have to win four games to get to the Final Four, so everyone quit whining about
the seeding and the tough region, Ky is certainly capable of getting there.
at this point, then we have a problem.
I am not happy with how strong the South region is, and that Ky has many tough games
to play, but this is March Madness, there are very few teams gonna lay down and let
us roll over them.
You have to win four games to get to the Final Four, so everyone quit whining about
the seeding and the tough region, Ky is certainly capable of getting there.
We could get a bye into the Final Four and some fans would still think the committee screwed us if we faced the highest ranked team still alive. I have never understood this mentality.
If you want to win a Championship, you need to have the mindset that you can beat everyone in the field. If you just want an easy draw so you can watch us blow out our post-season opponents .... decline the NCAA invite and roll the dice in the NIT.
If you want to win a Championship, you need to have the mindset that you can beat everyone in the field. If you just want an easy draw so you can watch us blow out our post-season opponents .... decline the NCAA invite and roll the dice in the NIT.
If you're going to win it all, you gotta be prepared to beat the best, regardless when you play them.
I do agree with this, but I also think people over-value kenpom on here. It's a pick and choose based on the narrative you're looking for. Out of one side of their mouths, some of our fans are saying, "Gonzaga is not a 1 seed...they are 8th in the rpi" and in the next breath, they are saying, "Wichita State is not a 10 seed...they are 5th in kenpom".
I agree that Wichita State is not a 10, but based on their schedule and just how terrible their conference was this year, I think they are more of a 7-8 than a 4-5.
Yeah just because I think we can beat a low mid major, not even a high mid major, but a low mid major team I have unrealistic expectations! Don't get me wrong Wichita State is the second best low mid major behind Gonzaga but I think UK should beat Gonzaga too.
Teams such as UCLA and UNC will be tough and I honestly think we have under a fifty percent chance of beating both, but maybe one will get upset.
Minnesota's wins over rummies like Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, etc aren't any different than Missour Valley wins. But the combination of good coaching & past tournament performance make WSU much more dangerous than teams with better seeds. When a team loses many quality players like WSU did, it takes time to get your rotation set & for team chemistry to be up to par.