IMPACT GAMES THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
doesnt move the needle though, they still are in some trouble unless they gain a quality win in the AAC somewhere..they went 0-4 vs Houston/Cincy and are not even in the top 4 in the standings
Clueless....things went well for RU tonight...Michigan losing helps tremendously. Keeps them in contention to finish behind others in the B1G
they have one win of note. there is nothing solid about being in the last 4 in line on both Lunardi and Palm and last out in the BAC bracket
NET of 46 with 21 wins? Gotta think they’re in as of today no? Now they play the three teams immediately around them in conference standings, With two of them on the road, so who knows what happens.
0-4 vs Houston and Cincy
UConn and OK State are Q1 wins but are not tourney teams...that is noticed
best win Oklahoma
record vs teams projected in field 1-5
true no bad losses
now games at SMU and at Memphis before Tulsa who they lost to first time....cannot lose more than 1
its not on the sheet but they are just 9-6 in league tied for 4th and 5th place with SMU
not sure the AAC is getting 3...its either them or Cincy who could fall out of the field with a loss to Houston. Currently on tiebreak I have Cincy as the autobid winner...they have 4 Quad 3 losses and that hurts their chances for an at large
Cal beat Colorado, while Colorado is a lock this is a pretty bad loss for them and the conference....these kind of results have some slight impacts because it lessens the value of another schools win over Colorado.
Thursday, February 28 Recap
Bubble Strength Games
Arizona at USC (USC, 57-48)
Indiana at Purdue (Purdue, 57-49)
-----
Rutgers = 9 seed
Tourney chances = 85%
Last Four Byes
Oklahoma
USC
Stanford
Utah St.
Last Four In
Wichita St.
Providence
Arkansas
Rhode Island
First Four Out
North Carolina St.
Richmond
Cincinnati
Mississippi St.
Next Four Out
Purdue
Texas
Memphis
Notre Dame
Bubble Strength Games
Arizona at USC (USC, 57-48)
Indiana at Purdue (Purdue, 57-49)
-----
Rutgers = 9 seed
Tourney chances = 85%
Last Four Byes
Oklahoma
USC
Stanford
Utah St.
Last Four In
Wichita St.
Providence
Arkansas
Rhode Island
First Four Out
North Carolina St.
Richmond
Cincinnati
Mississippi St.
Next Four Out
Purdue
Texas
Memphis
Notre Dame
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good stuff...question? how are you justifying Arkansas in the field based on one quality win that at Indiana, which is exactly a world beater themselves
also currently I am projecting Cincy in the field because they have the tiebreak for first in AAC but agree with you, if not for that they would be out.
also currently I am projecting Cincy in the field because they have the tiebreak for first in AAC but agree with you, if not for that they would be out.
Yeah I was giving Houston the AAC
Arky really just strong NET compared to like NC State. Agree they are sorely lacking in quality wins but no bad losses. Not sure how to balance that so gave them the edge based on 10 net spots
Arky really just strong NET compared to like NC State. Agree they are sorely lacking in quality wins but no bad losses. Not sure how to balance that so gave them the edge based on 10 net spots
I just dont think overall NET will be used. See UCLA..if they win at ASU, they are in the field as of now and I do not see how their NET ever gets above 55
76 UCLA(17-11) is a much better team now and similar to Providence but they have a lot of hiccups non conference. Losing to 8-18 CS-Fullerton(267)-home, 21-8 Hofstra(123)-home(19-7 Q3/4 record), 11-17 UNC(94)- neutral and Pac-12 loss, 14-14 Washington St.(119)- Road. Best non-conference win is 112 UNLV(16-14), 7-6 non-conference record. Hard sell on that resume, despite 11-5 Pac 12 record and 2 left, winning 10 of last 12. Should be interesting what the committee decides as more important this year, I forget what they went with last year.
Notre Dame has no wins of note, you are kidding me. UCLA has piled up quality wins in the last few weeks, they are leading the Pac 12
you certainly appear to be caught up in NET if you compare UCLA to ND and I know UCLA has a q3 and q4 loss and yes ND beat them
you certainly appear to be caught up in NET if you compare UCLA to ND and I know UCLA has a q3 and q4 loss and yes ND beat them
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Notre Dame is just 3-9 in q1 and 2....15 of 18 wins in Q3 and 4...even if somehow they beat FSU they would still need to win their other two and then pick off a Duke/FSU/Louis in the ACC tourney
their wins are Clemson, Cuse, and Ga Tech...gimme a break.. Their best win which currently counts as a Q3 which speaks to the absurdity of the NET is UCLA who is still out of the field right now
the sos is 107 and its like 313 non conference
their wins are Clemson, Cuse, and Ga Tech...gimme a break.. Their best win which currently counts as a Q3 which speaks to the absurdity of the NET is UCLA who is still out of the field right now
the sos is 107 and its like 313 non conference
Notre Dame has a one game better record against a similar strength schedule. Again, not sure how to balance the good wins vs awful losses but Notre dame also has better metrics (yes, including NET) and the fact that UCLA is playing better now isn’t supposed to be relevant, the early games count just as much.
ND is 0-7 vs teams in the field
UCLA is 4-7
overall record and overall NET really are not going to matter. UCLA wins at ASU they are in, which actually gives ND their first win of note, but that aint getting them in, they will need 3 other quality wins at least.
and ND is worse than UCLA by NET sos both overall and sos
UCLA is 4-7
overall record and overall NET really are not going to matter. UCLA wins at ASU they are in, which actually gives ND their first win of note, but that aint getting them in, they will need 3 other quality wins at least.
and ND is worse than UCLA by NET sos both overall and sos
We have very different opinions on the strength of UCLA’s resume. I think they need the next two and two in the PAC 12 tournament. Those losses are brutal.
There are outliers every year..ie St Johns and ASU recently vs NC State
Thats why Rutgers net doesn't matter now..if it was in the 20s sure but 30s and low 40s can easily be left out
Thats why Rutgers net doesn't matter now..if it was in the 20s sure but 30s and low 40s can easily be left out
It’s not purely about the net.
I think the difference in our philosophy is that you think swapping good wins for bad losses improves a resume and I don’t agree.
I think the difference in our philosophy is that you think swapping good wins for bad losses improves a resume and I don’t agree.
I don't disregard bad losses and thats why i still have them out currently...and a closer look shows Hofstra is projected to make the ncaa..means they have one really ugly awful loss to Cal St Fullerton
I cannot value schools like Arkansas that have a win over Indiana and thats it..not to mention swept by Miss St. They beat zero of the top 4 sec schools
Wins always matter to me more than anything
I cannot value schools like Arkansas that have a win over Indiana and thats it..not to mention swept by Miss St. They beat zero of the top 4 sec schools
Wins always matter to me more than anything
NC State lost at home to Georgia Tech late last year, that killed their metrics more than the NET ratings.....
My question is whether Indiana goes 9-11 in the B1G (loss at Illinois, win vs Minnesota at home, loss to Wisconsin at home in fnale and loss in round 1 of B1G tournament.....are they in or out.....discussing these UCLA, ND, Arkansas, NC State is fine....
As Seton Hall, Maryland, Wisconsin and SFA continue to win, it's still impossible to see how RU's resume is getting worse, when it's not........it's stabilized because their wins are getting better and their losses remain "quality".....There is no sense of having a road win like Indiana, if you have 3 to 4 B1G home losses and other games where you're not competitive........mentioning that Pitt is getting worse means nothing if you don't mention the other side of the coin....
Rutgers resume is getting worse because they only added one quality win in 8 games while other schools are doing more to close the gap on Rutgers. And the road record has become a serious red flag
A road win at Indiana is more valuable than a home win vs Illinois...not sure why you keep arguing this. Rutgers would be safely in if the road situation didnt exist
In that scenario Indiana would be in trouble..would depend what everone else is doing...also what Purdue and RU are doing
Right Now
Rutgers (17-11)
Q1 3-9 Q2 4-1 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0 R 1-8 N 0-2
NET 34 RPI 57
Last 4 In (2018-19)
Belmont(26-6) beat Temple, lost to #6 Maryland by 2
Q1 2-3 Q2 4-1 Q3 3-2 Q4 17-0 R/N 14-5
NET 47 RPI 38
Temple (23-10) lost
Q1 2-7 Q2 6-2 Q3 7-1 Q4 8-0 R/N 10-8
NET 56 RPI 36
Arizona St(23-11) beat St. John's, lost to #6 Buffalo by 17
Q1 3-4 Q2 9-2 Q3 5-2 Q4 6-2 R/N 10-8
NET 63 RPI 39
St. John's(21-13) lost
Q1 5-7 Q2 5-2 Q3 3-2 Q4 8-0 R/N 7-8
NET 73 RPI 70
There was 4 at large with 19 wins(2018-19)
#9 Oklahoma(19-13) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-11 Q2 6-2 Q3 9-1 Q4 0-0 R/N 9-10
NET 37 RPI 34
#11 Ohio St. (19-14) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-11 Q2 5-3 Q3 5-1 Q4 5-0 R/N 8-9
NET 55 RPI 60
#9 Baylor (19-13) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-10 Q2 8-1 Q3 2-1 Q4 5-2 R/N 7-9
NET 39 RPI 51
#10 Florida (19-15)
Q1 5-13 Q2 4-1 Q3 6-2 Q4 5-0 R/N 11-10
NET 31 RPI 54
#10 Minnesota(21-13) H 13-3 R 2-9 N 7-2 (1-1 B1G 1-1 NCAA)
Q1 6-11 Q2 7-2 Q3 4-1 Q4 5-0
NET 61 RPI 40
Maybe the closest in?
There was just no example of our resume to go by whether we can make it or not. I'd feel more comfortable if we win the Purdue game. Ours is unique. No one schedules this many home games and have as many quality home wins near the bubble last year but also no one with as many close losses on the road over and over, mostly good teams. Can't find a bubble burst team either with our resume of Q1 and Q2 wins we have this year.
Continued...
NIT 1 and 2 seeds or last 8 out
#1 UNC Greensboro 26-6 NIT 1-1
Q1 2-6 Q2 2-1 Q3 7-0 Q4 16-0 R/N 14-5
NET 60 RPI 32
#2 NC St. 22-11 NIT 2-1
Q1 3-9 Q2 5-1 Q3 6-2 Q4 10-0 R/N 7-7
NET 33 RPI 83
Their best win Auburn 29-10- H, NCAA Syracuse (20-13)-H, 2 wins against NIT-Clemson H and N
Closest to Rutgers out? We have better wins.
#1 Alabama 18-15 NIT 0-1
Q1 3-10 Q2 7-3 Q3 5-2 Q4 3-1 R/N 8-10
NET 59 RPI 66
#2 Texas 16-16 NIT Champ 5-0
Q1 6-10 Q2 7-5 Q3 5-1 Q4 3-0 R 2-8 N 4-2
NET 38 RPI 42
W UNC N, W Purdue H, W- KSU R, W - Kansas H, W ISU H
They were never getting in at .500 though
#1 TCU 20-13 NIT 3-1
Q1 3-10 Q2 8-4 Q3 7-0 Q4 5-0 R/N 8-9
NET 52 RPI 49
#2 Creighton 18-14 NIT 1-1
Q1 3-11 Q2 7-4 Q3 6-0 Q4 3-0 R/N 7-9
NET 53 RPI 62
#1 Indiana 17-15 NIT 2-1
Q1 6-9 Q2 3-6 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0 R 3-9 N 1-1
NET 54 RPI 98
Very similar but horrible Q2 record.
#2 Clemson 19-13 NIT 1-1
Q1 1-10 Q2 6-3 Q3 7-1 Q4 6-0 R 4-6 N 2-3
NET 35 RPI 65
Some similarities but we have more good wins than this too.
We have a better record than all the NITs last year but not as much as most of the 10/11 at large and play in 11 seeds. I don't know, tough call but we have 2 games(1H, 1R) and B1G tourney(Neutral) left, we are about where we belong 10 seeds, play in 11 seed games right now. It's different resumes this year.
Rutgers (17-11)
Q1 3-9 Q2 4-1 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0 R 1-8 N 0-2
NET 34 RPI 57
Last 4 In (2018-19)
Belmont(26-6) beat Temple, lost to #6 Maryland by 2
Q1 2-3 Q2 4-1 Q3 3-2 Q4 17-0 R/N 14-5
NET 47 RPI 38
Temple (23-10) lost
Q1 2-7 Q2 6-2 Q3 7-1 Q4 8-0 R/N 10-8
NET 56 RPI 36
Arizona St(23-11) beat St. John's, lost to #6 Buffalo by 17
Q1 3-4 Q2 9-2 Q3 5-2 Q4 6-2 R/N 10-8
NET 63 RPI 39
St. John's(21-13) lost
Q1 5-7 Q2 5-2 Q3 3-2 Q4 8-0 R/N 7-8
NET 73 RPI 70
There was 4 at large with 19 wins(2018-19)
#9 Oklahoma(19-13) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-11 Q2 6-2 Q3 9-1 Q4 0-0 R/N 9-10
NET 37 RPI 34
#11 Ohio St. (19-14) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-11 Q2 5-3 Q3 5-1 Q4 5-0 R/N 8-9
NET 55 RPI 60
#9 Baylor (19-13) 1-1 tourny
Q1 5-10 Q2 8-1 Q3 2-1 Q4 5-2 R/N 7-9
NET 39 RPI 51
#10 Florida (19-15)
Q1 5-13 Q2 4-1 Q3 6-2 Q4 5-0 R/N 11-10
NET 31 RPI 54
#10 Minnesota(21-13) H 13-3 R 2-9 N 7-2 (1-1 B1G 1-1 NCAA)
Q1 6-11 Q2 7-2 Q3 4-1 Q4 5-0
NET 61 RPI 40
Maybe the closest in?
There was just no example of our resume to go by whether we can make it or not. I'd feel more comfortable if we win the Purdue game. Ours is unique. No one schedules this many home games and have as many quality home wins near the bubble last year but also no one with as many close losses on the road over and over, mostly good teams. Can't find a bubble burst team either with our resume of Q1 and Q2 wins we have this year.
Continued...
NIT 1 and 2 seeds or last 8 out
#1 UNC Greensboro 26-6 NIT 1-1
Q1 2-6 Q2 2-1 Q3 7-0 Q4 16-0 R/N 14-5
NET 60 RPI 32
#2 NC St. 22-11 NIT 2-1
Q1 3-9 Q2 5-1 Q3 6-2 Q4 10-0 R/N 7-7
NET 33 RPI 83
Their best win Auburn 29-10- H, NCAA Syracuse (20-13)-H, 2 wins against NIT-Clemson H and N
Closest to Rutgers out? We have better wins.
#1 Alabama 18-15 NIT 0-1
Q1 3-10 Q2 7-3 Q3 5-2 Q4 3-1 R/N 8-10
NET 59 RPI 66
#2 Texas 16-16 NIT Champ 5-0
Q1 6-10 Q2 7-5 Q3 5-1 Q4 3-0 R 2-8 N 4-2
NET 38 RPI 42
W UNC N, W Purdue H, W- KSU R, W - Kansas H, W ISU H
They were never getting in at .500 though
#1 TCU 20-13 NIT 3-1
Q1 3-10 Q2 8-4 Q3 7-0 Q4 5-0 R/N 8-9
NET 52 RPI 49
#2 Creighton 18-14 NIT 1-1
Q1 3-11 Q2 7-4 Q3 6-0 Q4 3-0 R/N 7-9
NET 53 RPI 62
#1 Indiana 17-15 NIT 2-1
Q1 6-9 Q2 3-6 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0 R 3-9 N 1-1
NET 54 RPI 98
Very similar but horrible Q2 record.
#2 Clemson 19-13 NIT 1-1
Q1 1-10 Q2 6-3 Q3 7-1 Q4 6-0 R 4-6 N 2-3
NET 35 RPI 65
Some similarities but we have more good wins than this too.
We have a better record than all the NITs last year but not as much as most of the 10/11 at large and play in 11 seeds. I don't know, tough call but we have 2 games(1H, 1R) and B1G tourney(Neutral) left, we are about where we belong 10 seeds, play in 11 seed games right now. It's different resumes this year.
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Rutgers = 9 Seed
Last 4 Byes
Oklahoma
Virginia
Stanford
Utah St.
Last 4 In
Providence
Wichita St.
Arkansas
Rhode Island
First 4 Out
North Carolina St.
Richmond
Cincinnati
Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out
Purdue
Texas
Memphis
Notre Dame
Last 4 Byes
Oklahoma
Virginia
Stanford
Utah St.
Last 4 In
Providence
Wichita St.
Arkansas
Rhode Island
First 4 Out
North Carolina St.
Richmond
Cincinnati
Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out
Purdue
Texas
Memphis
Notre Dame
Saturday, February 29
Providence at Villanova
Texas at Texas Tech
Western Carolina at East Tennessee St.
Oklahoma at West Virginia
Arkansas at Georgia
Pittsburgh at North Carolina St.
Massachusetts at Richmond
Utah St. at New Mexico
Providence at Villanova
Texas at Texas Tech
Western Carolina at East Tennessee St.
Oklahoma at West Virginia
Arkansas at Georgia
Pittsburgh at North Carolina St.
Massachusetts at Richmond
Utah St. at New Mexico
Just accept that Rutgers is NIT bound
They blew it at Pen St
All those other teams win on the road.
Enjoy the weekend
all the results not going our way right now..hopefully Nova can come back because a PC win moves RU closer to the the play in game
Pitt now losing at NC State,
Pitt now losing at NC State,