Honest assertions about the AI bubble
- Thread starter firegiver
- Start date
A lot of research is going into making small, very low-powered chips that can enable this sort of thing, and more broadly, we need more power-efficient chips. The energy demand for cryptominers alone is gargantuan. It's fascinating how much it parallels mining gold to a very real extent.
I think the second scenario is pretty likely. Tons of jobs will be replaced by AI. The job market will have to adapt in some way, but it could get ugly on the unemployment side.
For those whose jobs remain, things will be better. Higher quality and lower costs in many areas. No more dealing with dumb people in basic jobs. But the gap is going to create a new dynamic that will have to be addressed.
It won’t be. It’ll be a disaster most likely as many people will lose their jobs and their meaning or purpose in life. I believe this will be a time of great excitement but great despair. AI and the technology associated with it are inevitable, it’s coming. Go to any college campus, the number one resource used is AI, that’s precisely how the internet was in the 90’s. You see where the internet is today, our very society is reliant on it. AI will be no different, only faster uptake.
Closer and closer to a dystopian society. How exciting lol.
Yep, I think we are well otw to that. One argument to the madness that we are seeing in the judicial system (releasing violent criminals) is that the powers want you to feel unsafe. They want normies to feel scared so that they will be willing to give over more liberties and freedoms. Don’t wanna get stabbed on public transport, give us your permission for facial recognition scans prior to boarding to ensure safety. Could do the same thing with ID, don’t like illegals voting in elections, we will give you centralized ID. That’s how it starts.
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Oh I agree. Dems will push for UBI and higher taxes. Republicans will probably do nothing. Both are wrong.
What do the bottom 20% of our society do to make money and live in that scenario? Like, I'll be fine, my friends will be fine, we can all figure something out, have the brain capacity to learn and adapt in this new future. But there are certain people who are working all those jobs who are doing so for a reason. There are millions of people in that place. The people who the right say are just voting for the Dems for welfare, and the left say are just voting for the GOP bc they're dumb flag waving bigots. If that many low brain power jobs go away, what else will low brain power people do for a living wage?
It’s more likely you and I lose our jobs before plumbers and electricians. People that have trades will be fine. The lazy people that can work but don’t will continue doing what they do. That’s at least half of that 20%. Elon says anything that is automated or can be done with a computer will be. Things that require physical labor will still require it. Wiring a house for electricity or maintaining equipment in plants for instance. Most likely you’ll see some type of increased UBI or stipend.
I disagree. I think we've created a system of dependency. Do you think certain groups have lower educational achievement and income are simply not capable of doing more?
Furthermore people definitely vote for free stuff. People vote for the person who will forgive their student loans, give them healthcare subsidies, offer no tax on tips, OT, & SS. It's human nature.
Right, I'm not as worried about tradesman. As I really am not considering them bottom 20% (def made that number up lol), as they learned a trade, so even if that specific trade is replaced, I feel confident they could learn another one, now more focused on something else in the new reality. I'm more speaking to the people working the line in factory's across the nation. Or working the line at fast food, or a cashier, or any other number of jobs that would be replaced.
I work at a computer all day (am catching up on work right now), and while I won't be surprised if one day the lower level analysts could be replaced that are producing reports, etc, or even myself in my current role if there aren't people/teams to manage, I have confidence I could learn to be over the programming of those AI producing reports, or the person in charging of reviewing questions if anything doesn't come out right, etc. I believe you work and cover an area working with various plants. So no doubt you could transition to some sort of maintenance over the machines, or selling various machines, or whatever else in that field. But agree that if you eliminate that many jobs, some sort of baseline UBI feels likely to be needed.
I am not really talking about people on welfare. But not everyone can become a robot technician. So you are thinking that we replace say 1/5 of all current jobs, but somehow we're also hiring 1/5th of all jobs quantity just in something else now? It feels like the point of all this is to have less people employed, but you think the same employment will happen, they'll just be doing something else now?
For your second, not really interested in that argument at the moment, was just giving an example of the group of people.
Well some of those jobs will remain.
Another reason we need to flush the undocumented from the country. We will probably need a place to stick some of these people.
Others may need to move elsewhere. Less advanced countries which haven’t automated jobs perhaps. What we cannot and should not do, is pay people who are not contributing in some meaningful way.
Taking away peoples employment opportunities, not presenting another way to work, and then advising them to move to other countries that are less developed.
Genius plan so you pay less taxes.
I don't think we're going to lose 20% of all jobs. I think there's always work to do that will require human labor. I remember big companies used to have large rooms full of typists/data entry workers. Today there are almost none. At one time a large percent of the country worked on farms. today it's only about 1% but we're still at record payroll employment. The challenge for individuals is to learn the skills that are in demand at the time.
You asked what can the bottom 20% do and it seemed to me you thought they should be allowed to live on the dole via a universal basic income. Perhaps I misunderstood. Of course everybody can't be a robot technician but there are plenty of other things people can do. Today it might be plumbers, welders, electricians, construction workers, and home health aides. Just try to find somebody to watch you kids while you work. Tomorrow it's likely to be something else. Some people adapt and other don't. I just don't want to have half the people supporting the other half. IMO that's a death spiral.
Yeah, I definitely just made that % up, so no concerns on pushback on that. If the jobs just switch, and the bottom 10-20% of society just switches what jobs they perform, then no concerns from me. So hopefully, like with people on farms or typist, if those jobs shift, great. My main point is that we can't just automate all the jobs the bottom portion of society perform and then do nothing. Hopefully, as you mention, there are new roles that are created in the new world that those people are able to shift in to. I don't think not working is good for the soul, personally, and don't think anyone able should just sit at home either. I am just saying unless there are shifts, removing all of the low level jobs through automation and not having anything to replace won't fly either.
As I often do, I really am not trying to act like an expert here. Just thought experimenting things through I guess. So I hope you're right and the job market just shifts elsewhere.
I don't understand the AI hype. I understand Moore's law and that more calculations can be performed at higher and higher speeds and that will lead to new applications. I just haven't been able to envision the end products that will put people out of work. We have things like online ordering and self checkout that have eliminated jobs and I'm sure there will be a lot more. At one time companies printed law books but today we still have plenty of lawyers who do their research online. The first electronic spreadsheet wasn't developed until the 1983 but we still have plenty of accountants and bookkeepers but definitely fewer receptionists. I realize that technology advancements will continue at an ever increasing pace. It's just that I have confidence that there will continue to be lots of jobs for people to do. The question is will they learn new skills in order to remain relevant. Some will and some won't. I don't want to support the "wonts". I want them to step up and find a role somewhere in the economy.
well, I for one could use a robot to do my daily exercise routine, clean the house, run errands.....
In time we could all become the group (don't know what to call them) in WALL E
UBI is already here, although by a different terminology. How many parents are providing some form of support to their children or grandchildren?
It would be great to see our govt modernized. If we could just get rid of intuit’s lobbyists, we could have a very simple form for filling out taxes online.
It would also be nice to see expenses reduced for Medicare and Medicaid. So much bloat in those programs.
If DOGE was operated by a reasonably sane person instead of a bull in a china shop, it could have had a huge impact. Unfortunately under musks leadership it was a spectacular failure leading to thousands of deaths and pure chaos among critical government organizations.
Cause you can't stand someone talking bad about your boy Elon. Your worship of that guy is weird.
He's a weirdo. It is what it is. Dude probably rolled coal on Tesla's in 2015. Post Nazi salute he's all in on the guy.
Yep. Love the concept, hated the execution. Same with MAHA. Love a lot of the stated concepts, not a fan of the messaging and Vax offshoot, as well as the caving to corporate interests more and more.
One thing I keep telling myself. People have to eat , have shelter from the weather or somewhere to live. Technology has wonders to make things quicker , cheaper , faster , etc but in the end it always comes back to food and shelter.
I really wonder what the world is coming to when we have driverless cars and humanoid robots picking and harvesting crops, working in factories , etc in the near future like 10 years out.
The changes in my lifetime has been dramatic and I ask myself a lot of wonder what the world will look like in 10 years.
Just for you under 40 you guys will live in a totally different world by age 70.
Serious question guys: Who's using the AI tools at work?
I've had a lot of successes recently and want to hear some anecdotal stories.
I've implemented self documentation tools across a division for development teams. Designed the thing myself and it works with copilot or kiro.
Anecdotally, I've seen the C-suites suddenly shift from rolling out these tools to collecting data on its use and ROI. 2026 is going to have tons of opportunity for companies that help setup and implement new ways of working in other companies. I'm approached ALL THE DAMN TIME now by companies trying to kick in the door to do what I'm already doing. Which is spec driven development.
I've had a lot of successes recently and want to hear some anecdotal stories.
I've implemented self documentation tools across a division for development teams. Designed the thing myself and it works with copilot or kiro.
Anecdotally, I've seen the C-suites suddenly shift from rolling out these tools to collecting data on its use and ROI. 2026 is going to have tons of opportunity for companies that help setup and implement new ways of working in other companies. I'm approached ALL THE DAMN TIME now by companies trying to kick in the door to do what I'm already doing. Which is spec driven development.
Interesting
I believe Blurry believes the way technology is changing, there is a good chance of a technology disruption that is being overlooked.
Do you have any thoughts on Quantum? It seems to be coming much faster than anticipated?
Do you have any thoughts on Quantum?
Yah I've been following quantum for a while. Its absolutely incredible technology and if and when it really arrives in the consumer market its going to be a big deal.
What about crypto markets that get flooded with new coins due to quantum computing mining?
What are the leading quantum companies and what technologies are you referring to? That’s kinda vague. Quantum computings impact will not be flooding the market with new coins. That’s not the concern with quantum and crypto at all.
Try a search for quantum computing risks to crypto and security
Quantum computing poses a major risk to cryptocurrency security by potentially breaking the asymmetric encryption (e.g., ECDSA) and hash functions (SHA-256) that secure wallets and validate blockchain transactions. Powerful quantum machines could derive private keys from public keys, allowing theft of assets and 51% attacks, likely disrupting blockchain networks in the coming years
Significant advancements are occurring, such as the construction of 96-qubit to 256-qubit machines and the integration of AI with quantum processing
Quantum computing poses a major risk to cryptocurrency security by potentially breaking the asymmetric encryption (e.g., ECDSA) and hash functions (SHA-256) that secure wallets and validate blockchain transactions. Powerful quantum machines could derive private keys from public keys, allowing theft of assets and 51% attacks, likely disrupting blockchain networks in the coming years
Significant advancements are occurring, such as the construction of 96-qubit to 256-qubit machines and the integration of AI with quantum processing
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I am invested in all of these fwiw
NYSE symbol.CACI. - reported earnings yesterday and a free cash flow machine with stock buy backs
CACI International Inc. is actively integrating quantum technologies into its national security, defense, and intelligence solutions, focusing heavily on post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum-ready systems engineering to combat future, cryptographically relevant quantum computer threats. CACI develops secure communications, such as Archon CSfC, and trains specialized personnel to ensure network resilience against quantum-enabled cyberattacks.
www.sealsq.com
Google and IBM
Small positions in
IONQ
D-Wave. QBTS
QTUM gives global exposure
Also factors into small investment with large geopolitical risks - CQQQ with China growing yuan peg to gold.
NYSE symbol.CACI. - reported earnings yesterday and a free cash flow machine with stock buy backs
CACI International Inc. is actively integrating quantum technologies into its national security, defense, and intelligence solutions, focusing heavily on post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum-ready systems engineering to combat future, cryptographically relevant quantum computer threats. CACI develops secure communications, such as Archon CSfC, and trains specialized personnel to ensure network resilience against quantum-enabled cyberattacks.
Stock symbol LAES
SEALSQ | Secure Microcontrollers, PQC Chips & IoT Trust Services
SEALSQ delivers quantum-resistant secure microcontrollers, PKI-based trust services, and device-to-cloud authentication for IoT, automotive, industrial and smart home applications.
www.sealsq.com
SEALSQ.
SEALSQ (NASDAQ: LAES) is a leader in developing Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) hardware and software to protect against quantum computing threats, with a focus on semiconductors and PKI (Public Key Infrastructure). The company offers quantum-resistant chips, secure microcontrollers, and IoT devices designed to prevent future quantum-level decryption attacks, positioning its technology as critical for cybersecurity in sectors like automotive, defense, and healthcare.Google and IBM
Small positions in
IONQ
D-Wave. QBTS
QTUM gives global exposure
Also factors into small investment with large geopolitical risks - CQQQ with China growing yuan peg to gold.