YOU ALL CAN TALK ABOUT POLITICS, I'M GOING TO KEEP TALKING ABOUT HORSEY GAMBOL - FLORIDA DERBY DAY AT GULFSTREAM PARK EDITION
NOTE: As always, these are just my opinions, gamble wisely.
I'll avoid the under cards and just start with Race 6
RACE 6
I'm not mad if you want to take the favorite, (6) American Tattoo, but I'm going with the former Derby longhot, (2) Bodexpress. The trainer/jockey combo has hit at almost a 40% win percentage this year, and he's been working out pretty well. I'll take 8/1 ML and hope. I'm trying to find value. Watch out for (10)Rare Form at 15/1, too.
$10 to win on 2
$1 Ex 2/ALL
$10 to place on 10
Race 7
It came down to (5)Cheermeister and (9)Seducer. I'll probably throw these two at the top of a trifecta bet with 1,8,10,13
$0.50 Tri 5,9/1,5,8,9,10/1,5,8,9,10
Race 8
A layoff of almost a year? Concerning? Nah, I'm going with 2019 Bluegrass Stakes winner, (8) Vekoma at 9/2.
$20 to win on 8
$2 EX 8/ALL
Race 9
Probably pass on this one. (5)Newspaperofrecord should be the betting favorite, but (12)Valedictorian is dropping in class and jockey Paco Lopez is has been pretty hot at Gulfstream.
$10 PLACE on 12
$1 ALL/5
Race 10
(5) Gentle Ruler and (6) Mean Mary are both coming off G3 wins, but I'll take the one that hasn't been shipped from Kentucky to Florida and a 5+ month layoff, and go with the one that has won at this track this year.
$20 to win on 6
Race 11 OAKS PREP
I'm going with the (5) Spice is Nice to come back and revenge her defeat by (9) Tonalist's Shape. She lost by 1 1/4 last time and hoping the extra 1/16th of mile will push her through.
$20 to win on 5
Race 12
Okay, this one should be the lock bet of the day, but no money to win. (9) Zula Alpha should absolutely romped in this crap field and potentially go off at 1/9. So, I am looking at the 2nd best horse. (10) Focus Group won this race last year, but has lost every race since then. So, I am going to focus on Todd Pletcher's (1) Channel Cat.
$20 to place on 1
$1 EX ALL/9
Race 13
I'm going with the Casse/Gaffalione 8/1 (3) March to the Arch.
$10 to win on 8
$1 Ex 8/ALL
Race 14 FLORIDA DERBY
This field is loaded. I wouldn't be surprised if any of 6 horses win this. (7) Tiz the Law should be the Derby favorite come September (ugh). (12) Ete Indien looked unstoppable in The Fountain of Youth. (5) Gouverneur Morris is gaining momentum. (9) Independence Hall has the best speed figure of the bunch. (4) Soros was my longshot gamble pick back in December for future Derby winner at 250-1. But I think gun-to-head, I might be going with (1) As Seen on TV at 12/1 ML.
No, Matt, don't overthink this.
Okay, $50 to win on 7
$10 to win on 1
Screw it $0.50 TriBox 1,4,5,7,9,12 and hope 1,4,5 come in?
My opinion will change hourly Saturday.
I hate Gulfstream, by the way.
Good luck and good gambol!