The Schiano-to-Rutgers return scenario is always fun to speculate about. How would it go?
I'd discount his failure in the NFL. Nick Saban was only 15-17 there, but I think most would agree that he's not such a bad coach, is he?
No one on earth can dispute Schiano's program-building acumen. Rutgers' rise to respectability (and thus, the Big Ten) is his alone to claim. Forget Banquet Circuit Bob, who took all his orders from Schiano, and forget Pernetti, who only had to not screw the Big Ten invite up. The credit is all Schiano's.
His return would make a big local splash (if not huge outside New Jersey), but it's hard to go home again. Is the spell he had on local coaches and recruits gone? He always spun the tale about how he grew up wanting to coach Rutgers and lead them to prominence, and I think that resonated with a lot of people. But did he cash that in when he left? Even though he left for the NFL and more money, it was the first time he clearly showed that he harbored higher aspirations than coaching Rutgers. And that's fine - I think most coaches do - but he was so intertwined with Rutgers that it was hard to separate them or picture them as separate entities. That's no longer true.
Also, he is not the same persona that was was in 2001 or 2006 or 2010 or 2012. I think many people view him through a different prism. His departure was abrupt and ruffled many feathers. I won't claim to be so tapped into the coaching scene that I can say exactly how he's held by those coaches now, but anecdotally, the evidence I've heard isn't great. And then he flopped in Tampa Bay, big time. As I said, I don't hold it against him, but some will. Many negative views of him came to light during that time, too - he was despised by his NFL peers, and I think more locally, some felt freer to speak ill of him, too, with him gone from Piscataway.
Much (not all) of the Penn State/Sandusky/Paterno scandal also unformed since he left. He still bears some of that taint, as we saw with the Tennessee thing. Man, that was ugly. U-G-L-Y. A whole fanbase in revolt because they so desperately did not want him in Knoxville. Do I think they weaponized that PSU thing to lobby against a coach they just didn't want? Yes, I think so. I really doubt they were that offended by his tenuous link to Sandusky as to do that. Rather, I think they used it to stage a convenient referendum on Greg Schiano, the prospective coach of UT football, and the result was decidedly against him. That's a stink that will be on him for a loooong time, fair or not. How would that affect his ability to do the job at Rutgers? Hard to say. But it's clear that his armor has many more nicks in it now than it did in early 2012.
Finally, he'd be competing on a whole new plain now. On one hand, you might think he'd be able to recruit better now than in his first stint, given the appeal of the Big Ten versus the Big East. But that discounts this redrawn Greg Schiano I have depicted here. It's possible that for every appealing facet there is of him, it is mitigated by a negative that did not exist when he was first here. And even if he could bring in improved talent, does he have the coaching acumen to match up with the best in the league? Guys who can fill their rosters with five-star talent and develop a winning game plan?
It's all so hard to say - there are many, many variables. I think you'd see an improved Rutgers football, but never any 2006-type seasons if he came back. I think you could still chisel in losses to OSU 14 our of every 15 years, but not by 56-0-style scores. In a good year, you'd pick up wins against the next level of teams - Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan State or Northwestern - and when you string together enough in one year, two or maybe three times a decade, you have a pretty fun season, your 8-4, even occasional 9-3, the kind that make you keep coming back.