Genes page article on Ginn

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,263
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Long term average for the stock market has been 10%. 2013-2017 was higher than that. You'll never get 10% every year, but averaging 8% is a pretty reasonable return.

That's not the way it works. First, the long term real total return of the stock market is between 6.5% and 7%. Second, even if you assumed an 8% real return, because of sequence of return risks, having a good chance of continuing to pull the same inflation adjusted amount going forward without running out of money requires your initial amount to be well below the average. For stocks, historically, with a 6.5-7% annual return, you've been able to draw more like 4% of the initial portfolio, and then increase that for inflation each year, and only run out of money in less than 5% of the scenarios. Granted, that approach would leave you doubling your money in real terms in more scenarios than you'd run out of money, so that's probably overly conservative for somebody that intends to keep working. But even then an 8% withdrawal would probably be too aggressive.

Of course, if Ginn can put $1M after tax away, he should be able to draw $40k per yaer going forward, which should be a good enough supplement that he can do whatever else he wants as far as jobs go.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
61,270
32,960
113
You're only talking about withdrawing it for the few years of a minor league career, not a lifetime annuity. One way or the other, he'd either be working a "real" job or playing in the majors within a decade (probably less). And really, as a minor league player, you're not going to have much in the way of expenses for 6 months out of the year anyway.
 

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
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It's pretty simple math in this era.

Dodgers' total bonus pool - $5,288,200
Real maximum bonus(5% over this number) since most teams pay the tax up until this point and then the penalties get stiff - $5,552,609

Went $25k over on 17th rounder already.
Have spent $1,185,000 on 4th through 9th round picks.

Have total maximum bonus pool of $4,342,609 left to spend on their first, second, and third rounders. Plus their 10th rounder(college senior, will be cheap). And any other picks they might have gone over $125k on.

So they can go $1M over slot on each of their first three picks?

So enjoy the majors, J.T.?
 

engie

Sophomore
May 29, 2011
10,764
106
63
So they can go $1M over slot on each of their first three picks?

So enjoy the majors, J.T.?

No. They will have a couple hundred K total to play with. Maximum. I imagine they go over slot on some of the other later picks also that eat into it $25-50k at a time.

1) $2,275,800
2) $917,000
3) $538,800
10) $136,800

With a total pool of $4,342,609.

So, if they hit slot on #2, 3, and 10, the most they could possibly pay JT is $2,750,809. You can nickel and dime your way through it and get there, but it's going to be very logically tough to get all the way to the $3mil asking number.

Here's the deal -- I do have a connection with the Dodgers. Got a group text around the 23rd or 24th pick that Ginn wasn't making it out of the first round since he knew that was our one draftee I was really eyeballing as a tweener that could go either way. At the time he said then that he/they weren't sure if they could sign him, but they saw it as a win/win for their organization. I naturally said that he's gone, but he claimed that it wasn't a done deal. They think he has better than #30 overall talent but there was the signability concern. But given where the Dodgers are with the draft, at the bottom every year, they were willing to take the risk, knowing that if he doesn't sign, while they lose the slot $$ allotment in this draft, they will make it up with compensation pick and compensation slot $$ next year, allowing them a better opportunity to actually stack high end talent rather than just picking at the end of every round every season. On top of that, Ginn's people are telling others close to him that he's coming to State.

I fully expect to have my heart ripped out on this, but 17 it, I'm sticking with Ginn to State. Starting 3B, midweek/Fri closer, Sun starter. Zero in-season bullpens and a pretty strict pitch count. Always hitting.
 
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johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,263
5,801
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You're only talking about withdrawing it for the few years of a minor league career, not a lifetime annuity. One way or the other, he'd either be working a "real" job or playing in the majors within a decade (probably less). And really, as a minor league player, you're not going to have much in the way of expenses for 6 months out of the year anyway.

I was just pointing out you can't pull out 8% without digging into principal. Or you probably can't.

But no doubt if you do it right, getting $1.2M in the bank pretty much guarantees you a middle class lifestyle going forward if you have any ability to work (and can get you a lower middle class lifestyle indefinitely even if you don't want to work).
 

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,263
5,801
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No. They will have a couple hundred K total to play with. Maximum. I imagine they go over slot on some of the other later picks also that eat into it $25-50k at a time.

1) $2,275,800
2) $917,000
3) $538,800
10) $136,800

With a total pool of $4,342,609.

So, if they hit slot on #2, 3, and 10, the most they could possibly pay JT is $2,750,809. You can nickel and dime your way through it and get there, but it's going to be very logically tough to get all the way to the $3mil asking number.

Here's the deal -- I do have a connection with the Dodgers. Got a group text around the 23rd or 24th pick that Ginn wasn't making it out of the first round since he knew that was our one draftee I was really eyeballing as a tweener that could go either way. At the time he said then that he/they weren't sure if they could sign him, but they saw it as a win/win for their organization. I naturally said that he's gone, but he claimed that it wasn't a done deal. They think he has better than #30 overall talent but there was the signability concern. But given where the Dodgers are with the draft, at the bottom every year, they were willing to take the risk, knowing that if he doesn't sign, while they lose the slot $$ allotment in this draft, they will make it up with compensation pick and compensation slot $$ next year, allowing them a better opportunity to actually stack high end talent rather than just picking at the end of every round every season. On top of that, Ginn's people are telling others close to him that he's coming to State.

I fully expect to have my heart ripped out on this, but 17 it, I'm sticking with Ginn to State. Starting 3B, midweek/Fri closer, Sun starter. Zero in-season bullpens and a pretty strict pitch count. Always hitting.

So the 10th rounder is a senior, correct? Can they really lowball him since he's a senior or do they have to offer him slot or a certain percentage of slot to keep him from being released?

Will the 2nd and 3rd rounder likely sign at slot? Or do players in those rounds typically get a little above slot if they're not a senior? Just trying to figure out whether the dodgers will realistically be able to get to or above that $2,750,809.
 

NWADawg

Senior
May 4, 2016
1,251
761
113
The Dodgers have the smallest bonus pool in the draft this year, and I’ve heard from more than one person that they have been unsure about getting him to sign from the beginnin

So, if I understand this right, the Dodgers knew that there was a chance Ginn wouldn't sign and still spent their 1st round draft pick on him? Does this kind of thing happen with any regularity? Is Ginn so good that Dodgers are willing to take the risk? It is hard for me to imagine using a 1st round draft pick for someone that was not a sure thing to sign? However, I am just looking at this from a business standpoint. I admit to having little knowledge of MLB draft practices.
 

engie

Sophomore
May 29, 2011
10,764
106
63
Third round pick signs for $565,740.

Total available bonus pool now down to $3,776,869 for the first, second, and tenth. If the 2nd gets about his actual value, they are below Ginn's asking price. And it appears I was wrong on their 10th round Pick, Liput from Florida, being a senior. He's a JR that was a draft-eligible soph last year and was taken in the 27th last year by the Dodgers. Looks like they expect him to sign this year, but probably have to give him ~ slot value for him to do so.
 

RocketDawg

All-Conference
Oct 21, 2011
20,472
3,111
113
How does he guarantee it? Where does the money come from if it makes less than 8%?
 

Dawgcap

Redshirt
Mar 7, 2017
944
0
0
Seriously are you guys breaking down whether he signs and invests to be middle class the rest of his life? I’m old and I understand he has parents that will influence him but I can guarantee you he’s not worrying about investments at this point. If he signs he’s gonna spend and enjoy. Yes he will invest but I’m betting that’s the least of his worries to set himself up for middle class.
He’s at the age of being bulletproof. In his mind money will matter but it will all come down to : college experience or the lure of being paid to play. Either way he wins. I think everyone is overthinking it. His decisions will be based on the college experience or cash to blow and the minor league experience. But I bet he thinks he gets to the majors no matter what he chooses!
I’m 54 but I try never to forget what it’s like to be young and I’m betting he may hear investing for his future but I also bet he goes where he can have the best time for an 18 year old. And as a remember being young I believe his decision is gonna be based on status and fun. He’s not a young man who needs the money at this point
 

Dawgcap

Redshirt
Mar 7, 2017
944
0
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I remember when the Presley kid from Tupelo went pro with a huge signing bonus. Blew his arm out and never made it. I’m sure he is having a great life but imagine if he signed at State or the other schools in state and got injured. He’d be a folk hero and have amazing opportunities through college connections because he was a folk hero who stayed to play ball in Mississippi.
If Ginn signs at State he is an immediate folk hero with his future covered if he doesn’t make it because he chose us!
His future is set but I promise the signing bonus better be good because he’s 18 and knows he’s gonna make the big show no matter what he decides. That’s what I would think if I had his abilities and situations.
 

maroonmania

All-Conference
Feb 23, 2008
11,389
1,165
113
I remember when the Presley kid from Tupelo went pro with a huge signing bonus. Blew his arm out and never made it. I’m sure he is having a great life but imagine if he signed at State or the other schools in state and got injured. He’d be a folk hero and have amazing opportunities through college connections because he was a folk hero who stayed to play ball in Mississippi.
If Ginn signs at State he is an immediate folk hero with his future covered if he doesn’t make it because he chose us!
His future is set but I promise the signing bonus better be good because he’s 18 and knows he’s gonna make the big show no matter what he decides. That’s what I would think if I had his abilities and situations.

Kirk Presley from Tupelo I believe. Got around a million dollar signing bonus which was huge back in the day. And yes, apparently he is a third cousin of Elvis.
 

rem101

Sophomore
Jan 22, 2008
3,202
187
63
I assumed he was referring to the timber ponzi scheme that got busted up a month or two back. If not, my apologies and I would not know how they would guarantee that.
 

engie

Sophomore
May 29, 2011
10,764
106
63
They can go 5% over cap and the only penalty is tax on the amount of the overage. That's the real cap number that teams don't cross. Not the $5.29mil.
 

HueFreeze

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
611
0
0
so around 5554500 is the true cap

ok that changes the 2nd round money to about 651960 available give or take rounding

Do we know if the 2nd round guy is going to want top slot or just sign?
 

engie

Sophomore
May 29, 2011
10,764
106
63
The Dodgers have $3,776,869 for the first, second, and 10th round picks.

He isn't getting $3mil IMO. The 2nd and 10th guys are both going to want slot or close to it IMO. He either takes $2.5-2.7 or he comes to school...
 

engie

Sophomore
May 29, 2011
10,764
106
63
Braves offered Stewart almost $1mil below slit and are now backing away from even that number after the results of the physical. Interesting.
 

msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
Braves offered Stewart almost $1mil below slit and are now backing away from even that number after the results of the physical. Interesting.

If he doesn't sign with braves, I wonder if he goes juco to back in draft sooner
 

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,263
5,801
113
Braves offered Stewart almost $1mil below slit and are now backing away from even that number after the results of the physical. Interesting.

So are draftees entitled to any minimum? Like in the NBA, they have to offer first round picks certain money (and 2nd round picks have to be offered a contract at the minimum I think) or they are a de facto free agents. If a MLB team takes a senior with no more eligibility in the 1st round, is there any recourse to the player if the team offers 50% of slot?
 

aTotal360

Heisman
Nov 12, 2009
22,659
16,668
113
That's the rumor. He's all about the draft, not MSU. He'll go JUCO and re-enter in 2019.
 

Xenomorph

Heisman
Feb 15, 2007
16,281
11,000
113
So... we get Carter Stewart to school and the Braves throw a bunch of money at Zack Hess and steal him from LSU! Sounds like a win/win.
 

Go Budaw

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
7,321
0
36
Braves offered Stewart almost $1mil below slit and are now backing away from even that number after the results of the physical. Interesting.

Sounds like Tommy John U might be the place for him! He’s gonna be money for us for that Jr year (maybe?).
 
Sep 9, 2012
2,803
0
0
I don’t see any way that Stewart makes it here. If he doesn’t sign, he’s headed to JUCO for a year.

The only way I could even see Stewart making it to State as being a possibility would be if the injury was really serious and he’d need 2-3 years to prove that he’s back... In which case he’d probably sit out 2019 anyway.

Stewart is a pipe dream, IMO. Ginn on the other hand...
 

Go Budaw

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
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He met with Lemonis at MSU Tuesday afternoon - he is a top priority.
He has not even begin discussions with Dodgers as of now.
He is a advised by Scott Boras - he won't be the easiest sign.
He is also going to be advised to say exactly what he needs to say to pressure msu or the dodgers

Indiana pitching coach Bunn played on a Softball team with Ginn father ...so there is an immediate connection and relationship tie

Just a question for anyone who knows, but why is it completely OK with the NCAA for baseball prospects to not only contact but actually be advised by sports agents....when in all other sports you are ruled ineligible if you even are found to be in the same zip code as one before you get drafted?
 
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