Fauci this morning.....

[maroonmadman]

Ok...new rule needs 2b passed for posters on this site....and all sites being....math has 2B 100% correct....before posts are made.
Get it correct or don’t make the posts...

So we're moving away from the "What did you score on your English Comp. section on the SAT" to the "What did you score on your Math section of the SAT" model?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Dear China, Prepare Thy Anus. Sincerely, The Rest of the World.

Careful, the SJWs might hear you.

View attachment 15697
*

 

[paindonthurt_]

This. How people can’t see that you can do more than 1 thing at once (in all situations) is beyond me.

1 You can help the economy.
2 You can slow the spread.
3 number 1 helps number 2 in a way. Producing items needed for medical. Generating tax revenue. Generating personal income. Etc.

 

[codeDawg]

My point was that number seems low. Sorry that wasn’t clear.

Ah. Yes. Sorry.

 

[codeDawg]

Let’s talk about how we get to that number. What makes this virus isn’t how dangerous isn’t the mortality rate, it’s how quickly it spreads. It is highly contagious to begin with, our population has no immunity to it, and non-symptomatic or pre-symptomatic people can spread it unknowingly.

There are about 328MM in the US.The assumption being made is that we will reach a level where 30% - 40% of the population will have been infected by the virus barring a vaccine. That’s really the only way to stop it. Vaccine or herd immunity.

It will slow down considerably when we get to that 30-40% mark because the rate of infection will drop significantly. Right now it is estimated that one person infects between 2.2 (US number) and 3 (WHO number). We are social distancing to reduce that number and slow the spread so that we can handle the patients that need care can cared for.

This thing only starts to get better when that number is under 1.

When the rate of infected and recovered people increases, the ability for a person to transmit it lowers because where they would have have encountered 3 people and transmitted it before, now 1 or 2 of those people have immunity and it can’t spread through those channels drastically reducing the infection rate.

Again, we may be able to slow this thing with medicine, but the only defense system this point is immunity by vaccine or antibody.

Does anyone disagree with any of this?

Okay, here’s the next part.

328MM X 33% = 108,240,000 people infected
108,240,100 X 1% = 1,082,400

Play with that infection rate and mortality rate and you see where you get to this estimate.

 

[Allday.sixpack]

Something to keep in perspective.

If 200,000 people die in the United States from coronavirus in 2020, that will be a 5% increase from the 2.8 million people who die in the United States every year. Some of the people who die from coronavirus would have died of other underlying conditions.

In summary, it is not an insignificant increase in deaths. I value each human life. I also do not believe this is the end of times. I am keeping my guard up but not to the extent Of jeopardizing the worlds economy.

 

[Oak23]

Okay, here’s the next part.

328MM X 33% = 108,240,000 people infected
108,240,100 X 1% = 1,082,400

Play with that infection rate and mortality rate and you see where you get to this estimate.

After reading this, I feel depressed-as though there is really no good news. Furthermore, based on current ratios using these numbers, approx. 700,000 people in the STATE will get this with 200,000 in the hospital, and 7,000 die. Would that be mathematically correct?

My question would be based on daily increases, how long will it take for the state to get to 700,000 cases?? I guess you could assume a 15-20 percent increase per day as that’s kind of been the increase I think.

 

[blacklistedbully]

ETA... i figured this wrong. US population is 340 million, not the 34 million I used for some reason.

100000 deaths would be 294 per million (1.8x worse than Italy)
200000 deaths would be 588 per million (3.5x worse than Italy)

Apologies

How do you figure our death rate worse than Italy? As of today, they are experiencing 6.25 times as many deaths per known infected. 11% vs 1.76%.

Of course, we don't know the actual rate because we don't know the actual number of infected. But using available, published stats, the idea our rate would be worse than Italy's doesn't make sense.

 

[topbulldawg]

Let’s talk about how we get to that number. What makes this virus isn’t how dangerous isn’t the mortality rate, it’s how quickly it spreads. It is highly contagious to begin with, our population has no immunity to it, and non-symptomatic or pre-symptomatic people can spread it unknowingly.

There are about 328MM in the US.The assumption being made is that we will reach a level where 30% - 40% of the population will have been infected by the virus barring a vaccine. That’s really the only way to stop it. Vaccine or herd immunity.

It will slow down considerably when we get to that 30-40% mark because the rate of infection will drop significantly. Right now it is estimated that one person infects between 2.2 (US number) and 3 (WHO number). We are social distancing to reduce that number and slow the spread so that we can handle the patients that need care can cared for.

This thing only starts to get better when that number is under 1.

When the rate of infected and recovered people increases, the ability for a person to transmit it lowers because where they would have have encountered 3 people and transmitted it before, now 1 or 2 of those people have immunity and it can’t spread through those channels drastically reducing the infection rate.

Again, we may be able to slow this thing with medicine, but the only defense system this point is immunity by vaccine or antibody.

Does anyone disagree with any of this?

This is how I see it as well. My only question (which I don't think has been studied) is how different the spread rate is different in large populated areas vs. rural areas. I would assume people in NYC are on the higher end of spread rates while rural MS is on the lower end of spread rates. This has an interesting impact on the curve and when things can re-open. You can see it already with the hot spots being urban areas.

 

[msstate7]

How do you figure our death rate worse than Italy? As of today, they are experiencing 6.25 times as many deaths per known infected. 11% vs 1.76%.

Of course, we don't know the actual rate because we don't know the actual number of infected. But using available, published stats, the idea our rate would be worse than Italy's doesn't make sense.

Used deaths per million pop. Italy was at 167 this morning.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Used deaths per million pop. Italy was at 167 this morning.

Something is off with your stats. I'm guessing an incongruity somewhere with the numbers going into your equation. How else could you explain more deaths per million in a country currently speculated to have a death rate exponentially less than the other country? Doesn't make sense unless the speculation is we are, not just behind the curve expecting it to get worse percentage-wise, but also predciting we will fare worse than Italy for some reason.

You could mae a case that more overall would die in the US, due to us having 5.5 times the total population. But going strictly by known stats available today, one could argue despite our much greater population, the difference in death rate could still result in fewer overall deaths in the US as compared to Italy.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Used deaths per million pop. Italy was at 167 this morning.

Wait a minute. Need to reconfigure. Not enough coffee.

OK, head screwed on a little straighter.

If we go by current death rate of known cases and multiply by 1,000,000, you get 110,000 for Italy vs 16,700 for the US. We can look at % of population thought to be infected to check their impact, but those #'s aren't nearly accurate enough to use.

Yes, I'm comparing deaths per million infected rather than overall deaths-per-million overall pop, but unless you're arguing we are going to experience a far greater rate of infection than Italy, I don't see how you can say our rate is or will be worse than Italy's. Consider how much worse our rate of infection will need to be to make up for the huge delta in death rate of those (known to be) infected.

 

[dawgoneyall]

That is not exactly what he said.

 

[msstate7]

Wait a minute. Need to reconfigure. Not enough coffee.

OK, head screwed on a little straighter.

If we go by current death rate of known cases and multiply by 1,000,000, you get 110,000 for Italy vs 16,700 for the US. We can look at % of population thought to be infected to check their impact, but those #'s aren't nearly accurate enough to use.

Yes, I'm comparing deaths per million infected rather than overall deaths-per-million overall pop, but unless you're arguing we are going to experience a far greater rate of infection than Italy, I don't see how you can say our rate is or will be worse than Italy's. Consider how much worse our rate of infection will need to be to make up for the huge delta in death rate of those (known to be) infected.

I'm not saying it will or won't be. I just rolled with fauci's 100k and 200k death range, and compared that to Italy at the present

 

[thatsbaseball]

You're right. I'll try to find what he actually said. I hate the news media with a passion.

 

[thatsbaseball]

The article I copied conveniently left out the words "could" and "may"

 

[johnson86-1]

Well, I'm seeing a lot of medical people saying Fauchi is shooting too high on purpose to get a point across. They're also saying between 10 days to 3 weeks til peak.

If that's shooting high, I don't think that will scare people but make them complacent. That would be tragic, but that's roughly ten times a very mild flu season or 2.5 times a severe flu season. I don't think most people will think that's worth causing a near depression over.

 

[codeDawg]

After reading this, I feel depressed-as though there is really no good news. Furthermore, based on current ratios using these numbers, approx. 700,000 people in the STATE will get this with 200,000 in the hospital, and 7,000 die. Would that be mathematically correct?

My question would be based on daily increases, how long will it take for the state to get to 700,000 cases?? I guess you could assume a 15-20 percent increase per day as that’s kind of been the increase I think.

This is COMPLETE napkin math. It doesn't take LOT in consideration, but it does show how exponential math works in an uncontrolled setting. A real model would include factors like weather, population density, herd immunity, etc.

These numbers are a LOT lower than is what is being measured out there, but you can see how quickly it goes from under control to Italy and NYC scary.

Transmission Rate	2			Infected	New Cases	New Case Rate / Week	Number of Hosptialized	New Hospitalized	Fatalities	New Fatalites
Hospitalization Rate	7%		Week 1	1	0	0%	0	0	0	0
Fatality Rate	1%		Week 2	3	2	67%	0	0	0	0
			Week 3	9	6	67%	1	0	0	0
			Week 4	27	18	67%	2	1	0	0
			Week 5	81	54	67%	6	4	1	1
			Week 6	243	162	67%	17	11	2	2
			Week 7	729	486	67%	51	34	7	5
			Week 8	2,187	1458	67%	153	102	22	15
			Week 9	6,561	4374	67%	459	306	66	44
			Week 10	19,683	13122	67%	1,378	919	197	131
			Week 11	59,049	39366	67%	4,133	2756	590	394
			Week 12	177,147	118098	67%	12,400	8267	1,771	1,181
			Week 13	531,441	354294	67%	37,201	24801	5,314	3,543
			Week 14	1,594,323	1062882	67%	111,603	74402	15,943	10,629
			Week 15	4,782,969	3188646	67%	334,808	223205	47,830	31,886
			Week 16	14,348,907	9565938	67%	1,004,423	669616	143,489	95,659
			Week 17	43,046,721	28697814	67%	3,013,270	2008847	430,467	286,978
			Week 18	129,140,163	86093442	67%	9,039,811	6026541	1,291,402	860,934
			Week 19	387,420,489	258280326	67%	27,119,434	18079623	3,874,205	2,582,803
			Week 20	1,162,261,467	774840978	67%	81,358,303	54238868	11,622,615	7,748,410
			Week 21	3,486,784,401	2324522934	67%	244,074,908	162716605	34,867,844	23,245,229
			Week 22	10,460,353,203	6973568802	67%	732,224,724	488149816	104,603,532	69,735,688
			Week 23	31,381,059,609	20920706406	67%	2,196,674,173	1464449448	313,810,596	209,207,064
			Week 24	94,143,178,827	62762119218	67%	6,590,022,518	4393348345	941,431,788	627,621,192

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[Puppychow]

Why do we cite death rates when we can’t even calculate them?

 

[turkish]

The article I copied conveniently left out the words "could" and "may"

So what was the actual quote? What was written is bad bad news.

 

[3rdBaseSlide]

So what was the actual quote? What was written is bad bad news.

Why is it that no one makes an effort to research, investigate to try and find out the truth about f**king anything? Is half of this country just to GD lazy or just plain stupid! There's plenty of news websites you can go to to investigate/cross reference and determine if everyone is saying the same story based on their own independent sources and witnesses. For a subject like this have you ever considered going to CNN. I know it sounds crazy but just for the hell of it could it be on YouTube?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00n3m-1nn0c

 

[turkish]

Why is it that no one makes an effort to research, investigate to try and find out the truth about f**king anything?

To further the conversation? To emphasize a point?

By your logic, why was this thread started to begin with?

Honestly, sometimes I have that same reaction to requests for more info. But I’d never dream of calling someone out like that.

To actually answer your question, everything I found was the exact quote posted in the OP. I don’t go to the news network websites — matter of principal and their vids never work on my phone. And I don’t dare screw up my YouTube feed by searching for news. An apology would be polite, but your parent(s) obviously missed that lesson.

 

[thatsbaseball]

This where I got it this AM

https://www.newsmax.com/headline/fauci-coronavirus-cases-millions/2020/03/29/id/960412/

 

[deadheaddawg]

https://www.newsmax.com/headline/fauci-coronavirus-cases-millions/2020/03/29/id/960412/

Be careful with newsmax. It's not really a trustworthy news source. Has a history of reporting inaccurate, slanted info.

It's a terrible site

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

You mad brah? Don’t be a dick

 

[Bcash2]

Why is it that no one makes an effort to research, investigate to try and find out the truth about f**king anything?

Cause a lot of people don't care about the truth. They just want to make their opponent look wrong. Whether they actually are wrong or not makes no difference.

ETA: I'm not saying that Turkish was doing this. But just pointing out the current state of things.

 

[deadheaddawg]

You mad brah? Don’t be a dick

Me? No not mad. Perplexed on why people go to places like newsmax, but not mad.

Also not being a dick. Newsmax is a garbage site. It just is. It's less reliable to than msnbc and huffpo

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I wasn’t talking to you.

 

[thatsbaseball]

CNN's quote. You are right and I apologize.

"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

Sorry guys....no more NewsMax for me. I apologize

 

[turkish]

Cause a lot of people don't care about the truth. They just want to make their opponent look wrong. Whether they actually are wrong or not makes no difference.

ETA: I'm not saying that Turkish was doing this. But just pointing out the current state of things.

You make a good point. I will say that that was NOT my angle.

I could clearly see the OP was using a direct quote from some written source. My angle was not to discredit the OP.

My apologies to the OP if he thought I was calling him out for a misleading post. I saw the same wording all over the web.

 

[blacklistedbully]

I'm not saying it will or won't be. I just rolled with fauci's 100k and 200k death range, and compared that to Italy at the present

In that case, I think you may be comparing our projected rate for the year to Italy's year-to-date.

If we look at current published numbers comparing % of population infected, death rates and then extrapolate Italy's numbers based on a similar increase that would get us to 100k to 200k deaths in the U.S., this is what we get:

YTD diagnosed cases - US 136,000 Italy 98,000
YTD deaths - US 2,400 Italy 10,800
Rate of death in known cases - US 1.76% Italy 11%

To reach 100,000 deaths in US, diagnosed cases would be 5.7 million based on 1.76% rate of death. That's roughly 40 times existing known cases. In a population of 340 million that equals 294 deaths per million.
To reach 200,000 that's roughly 80 times. 588 deaths per million

If we multiply Italy's known cases by 40, we get roughly 4 million. At their existing death rate of 11%, that would equal 440,000. In a population of 62 million that equals 7,100 deaths per million.
If we multiply by 80, we get roughly 8 million projected cases, with 880,000 deaths. 14,194 deaths per million.

Of course, these projections are overly simple, and are based, not on actual infections, so not really on actual rate of death of those infected. But based on what we are being told so far, I believe this is how the numbers break out. Now we can argue over whether Italy is much closer to their peak than we are, which could tighten the delta some....but we're talking about 294-588 per million population vs 7,100-14,194 per million.

Unless my math is wrong, there is no way we can be at a higher rate than Italy.

 

[RocketDawg]

ETA... I'm an idiot. Pop is 340 million, not 34 million.

Deaths per million would be 294, not 2941

Current US population estimation is just beyond 328,000,000, if you want to be truly accurate.

 

[3rdBaseSlide]

To further the conversation?

By your logic, why was this thread started to begin with?

To actually answer your question, everything I found was the exact quote posted in the OP. I don’t go to the news network websites — matter of principal and their vids never work on my phone. And I don’t dare screw up my YouTube feed by searching for news. An apology would be polite, but your parent(s) obviously missed that lesson.

The thread was started by posting false information from some website rather than going to the source. Considering right now that my son and his wife are at an incredible risk of getting this virus you're damn straight I'm upset. What's happening in Louisiana right now is heading our way. We are next and equally unprepared for what's coming. Fauci is saying that if we do not make an effort to stop the spread it's going to get even uglier. If I remember correctly it took one month to go from 1 - 1000 and took approximately two or three days to go to 2000. Everyone's trying to bash the man, he, CDC, and other professionals are desperately trying to convince everyone to try and stop the spread because we are not prepared to deal with this. Everyone should take this deadly serious (what we say and what we do) because it's going to touch everyone in one way or another.

PS- I hope you and your families can get through this without being seriously harmed
[h=2][/h]

 

[dawgoneyall]

Current US population estimation is just beyond 328,000,000, if you want to be truly accurate.

Just beyond is not truly accurate except in quantum physics.

 

[turkish]

The thread was started by posting false information from some website rather than going to the source. Considering right now that my son and his wife are at an incredible risk of getting this virus you're damn straight I'm upset. What's happening in Louisiana right now is heading our way. We are next and equally unprepared for what's coming. Fauci is saying that if we do not make an effort to stop the spread it's going to get even uglier. If I remember correctly it took one month to go from 1 - 1000 and took approximately two or three days to go to 2000. Everyone's trying to bash the man, he, CDC, and other professionals are desperately trying to convince everyone to try and stop the spread because we are not prepared to deal with this. Everyone should take this deadly serious (what we say and what we do) because it's going to touch everyone in one way or another.

PS- I hope you and your families can get through this without being seriously harmed
[h=2][/h]

Thanks. You, too.

PS- We live in SE LA.

 

[ezsoil]

This sounds like a path to consider: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html

"We Can Safely Restart the Economy in June. Here’s How.
Get tough now. Test widely to isolate those infected, and slowly revive businesses with workers and customers who have developed immunity."

the only people saying to shut down the economy for over three months are either 1.getting a government check or 2. Rich enough not to work..this concept is so stupid it doesn't merit a discussion....what if the workers who developed immunity don't have the skill set to reopen the economy? What if we don't have enough cooks who have immunity are you going to cook? Or what if the people who have immunity are only in the cities, what does the rest of the country do? This is what happens when people who have never made a payroll or have never had do a day of manual labor write articles to be read by stupid people.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Chris Martenson is predicting that the magic number for herd immunity

is 35 million Americans testing positive. Also some really good info on wearing face masks.