Have Rutgers 12th 12th 12th and 11th from their four analysts.
Pike is going to prove people wrong
Pike is going to prove people wrong
ESPN Conference Predictions
- Thread starter RUsojo
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Given our history...persistence forecasting makes sense...better to fly under the radar.
The Sports Books out here, based on making the NCAA odds, tend to agree with those rankings, even with a milk toast OOC schedule.
Maybe LV has a more realistic view on our newcomers and the impact of the players lost compared to our fans.
Our fans can definitely be right, but if I had to pick I'd go with the base case LV lays out.
Our fans can definitely be right, but if I had to pick I'd go with the base case LV lays out.
Until Rutgers achieves a winning season its unrealistic to expect preseason rankings to be better than in the 12-14 range.
we havent had a winning season since 2006. Predictions in the 11 and 12 spots are pretty appropriate and we have made progress, we are not universally picked for last anymore
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
I think many of these service’s are understaffed
( one or two people) less sports books, covering multiple conferences with limited access to the actual activities, practices, team camaraderie, staff, etc.
They certainly don’t go out on the limb with an off beat prediction. I’ll go with our board predictions regarding our team over literally ever major scouting service or media outlet out there. To me, 8, 9, or 10th is much more realistic and “they” won’t go there for awhile.
NP
fans of a team can be more educated about their own team than national analysts, however they rarely have that same depth of analysis of every other team in the conference.
preseason ranks for Rutgers have them significantly improved from the last several seasons, though that still puts them relatively down in the Big Ten which is a very strong hoops conference.
I get what you're saying, but a little research would help them to understand it's not a "wash, rinse and repeat" thing. When will be people learn, following the crowd will get you into trouble.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I have. I think we finish 5th-7th.
1) I think Michigan is gonna take a big stinky dump and have their worst year in a while. Dont underestimate how good of a coach beilen was.
2) Wisconsin is going to try to play a perimeter game at a slow pace, I personally think we whack them as theyre guard heavy but their guards arent nearly as athletic as ours.
3) Indiana- lost morgan and langford and their best addition is an 18 year old. I see them having a similar season to last year.
4) Iowa loses three key players with bohanon to injury and isaiah moss transferred and tyler cook surprisingly turned pro.
5) Nebraska is just a totally new team, gonna take time to mesh
6) NW- they just stink
7) Minny- lost a ton of good players
8) I think RU, PSU and Illinois will jockey for 5th to 7th place with only 2 getting in the tourney.
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I am sure in most cases research has been done. We have a ton of question marks and unknowns. Many of our fans are trying to make the unknowns known.
I am VERY excited for the season. I have no idea what to expect. I can’t make the leap with the new and returning players.
It goes both ways. When looking at most of the teams in the B1G, they all have as many questions as Rutgers. An in-depth look at Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and you will see significant issues. The name on the front of the jersey never wins you games.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I got us at 10-1 OOC with the one loss coming from one of Pitt, SHU, NJIT, Bonnies.
conference I have us at 12-8.
1-1 at big ten tourney
overall 23-10 and an 9-10 seed.
if we dont win 20 games the season should be deemed a failure
I should be writing different wins totals and my probability. 20 wins is possible, but not something I’d attach more than a 5% chance to. In past years that number would be practically 0
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Well FIG youre overly negative about everything so that doesnt surprise me one iota
It's not the first time Iowa has played a player who is not close to 100%. Typically, the player will redshirt after testing the injury for a game or two.
If Bohanan's injury is as serious as first stated, then Iowa is foolish for trying to get him to play a full season. It means Iowa is in bigger trouble than first thought.
or Bohannon wants to play. Bohannon is not going to make a lot of money, if any, playing basketball. If he graduates this year maybe he wants to get on with his life and not waste a year of his life.
He runs the risk of getting hurt again and this time it might be for good. Also, the long term effects could impact his quality of life. I deal with a bad knee and shoulder from playing through injuries at Rutgers 25+ years ago.
Looking at out rotation.....
1st year RU players (3) AY, PM, JY
2nd year RU players (7) MD, SQ, MJ, CM, MM, RHJ, PK
3rd year player (1) GB
None of those 11 players I can say with certainty are anything more than role players. On the flip side 8-10 of them have upside and can turn in to MAJOR players. On a player by player basis I have serious doubts. However 8-10 bare minimum can play.
To add....the only guy in my mind that looks special had a up and down year last year and has been noticibly absent in any preseason praise.
This would be a disappointment. I feel like we could live with 17-14 on the season, but 14-17 would be a disappointing season.
9-2, 8-10, should be the floor.
The difference between 17-14 and 14-17 can be 3 possessions or 1 turned ankle.
I see people saying Schiano shouldnt be our coach because he hasn't won anything. One dropped pass is literally the difference between that assessment.
Last year we were Iowa'd from being 8-12 and Issa'd (fight thru 2 screens!) from being 9-11 last year.
On the flip side we won 4 B1G games by 4 points or less.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...ll-bpi-likes-michigan-state-skeptical-memphis
I think their preseason BPI rankings have 8 teams making the NCAAs from the B1G, ranked in this BPI order....this is not a Top 25 order or anything other than their metrics.....the percentage below is their likelihood of making the NCAA tournament......I think it's pure comedy that UConn is 82% likely to make the NCAAs and Seton Hall is at 42%, while Penn State is at 80% and RU is at 2%....
None of these make sense and without knowing how they calculate these items, they're kinda useless.
But this is how ESPN and the BPI arrives at RU being 12th in the B1G rankings.
1) Michigan State. 99%
6) Wisconsin. 95%
11) Purdue. 98%
19) Maryland. 92%
20) Iowa. 72%
24) Penn State. 80%
25) Ohio State. 78%
27) Illinois. 67%
****46) Seton Hall. 42%
****55) UConn. 82%
61) Michigan. 11%
64) Minnesota. 12%
69) Indiana. 6%
82) Rutgers. 2%
****87) Pittsburgh. 1%
90) Nebraska 0%
****91) St. Bonaventure 22%
I think their preseason BPI rankings have 8 teams making the NCAAs from the B1G, ranked in this BPI order....this is not a Top 25 order or anything other than their metrics.....the percentage below is their likelihood of making the NCAA tournament......I think it's pure comedy that UConn is 82% likely to make the NCAAs and Seton Hall is at 42%, while Penn State is at 80% and RU is at 2%....
None of these make sense and without knowing how they calculate these items, they're kinda useless.
But this is how ESPN and the BPI arrives at RU being 12th in the B1G rankings.
1) Michigan State. 99%
6) Wisconsin. 95%
11) Purdue. 98%
19) Maryland. 92%
20) Iowa. 72%
24) Penn State. 80%
25) Ohio State. 78%
27) Illinois. 67%
****46) Seton Hall. 42%
****55) UConn. 82%
61) Michigan. 11%
64) Minnesota. 12%
69) Indiana. 6%
82) Rutgers. 2%
****87) Pittsburgh. 1%
90) Nebraska 0%
****91) St. Bonaventure 22%
PSU 80%
Michigan 11%
:Sly:
Should be
Michigan 50%
Penn State a number less than 50%
Michigan 11%
:Sly:
Should be
Michigan 50%
Penn State a number less than 50%
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Small thing: That's consensus followed by the three analysts.
I've linked to this before, but I've been keeping it updated: Seventy predictions in so far.
It's a mix. Many are B10 predictions 1-14. Some are top 25 predictions that include a handful of B10 teams. Some are bracketologies, in which I ordered the teams by their seeds. Some are 1-353 predictions (both analytics and eyeballs).
Basically, anything reasonably credible that proposed an order of finish/ranking is included.
Ill get the season prediction thread up and running in a day or 2 but my goal is to get over 500....16-15