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Daily Tracking the NET: now 102

R

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
goru7 said:
Again the ******** with Seton Hall. They demolish St. John’s Net 32 to their 66. They were up 28 and 20 plus most of second half and St. John’s scores last 5 points to lose by 15 not 20. But if game control is not part of the NET then it should be. Other teams go up 10-16 with that win at home and 16-22 on the road. Seton Hall only 8. That NET formula needs tweaking.
Unless we get it in gear starting tonight against Nebraska , it will not matter . But our 1-7 Quad 1 , with no Quad 2 games so far and perfect Quad 3 and 4 , is not as terrible as it looks , 4 road , 2 neutral, 1 home in the losses and a road win .
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It's not a linear progression from 1 to 350 in NET, but they don't publish the actual metric only the rank.

Look at kenpom. It's a 1.47 difference between 18 and 19, and a 1.44 difference between 69 and 79. You could improve by 1.45 and jump 10 spots, or no spots.
 
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P

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,305
23,008
0
BillyC80 said:
Sure but the question is, why isn’t Vegas sold on Nebraska?

Aren’t their metrics and composite ratings/ranking better than ours?

RU is favored by either 3 or 3.5. If we get 3 points for playing at home, that means Vegas thinks we’re even on a neutral court. What is it that’s supporting that conclusion?

(I’m not actually asking you, just thinking out loud)
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No Vegas doesn’t think about what the spread is at another venue. Vegas just wants equal number of money bet on both sides
 
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S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,476
49,465
113
NewJerseyHawk said:
This is not about the Big Easr or SHU.....Seton Hall thought they had a quality neutral win by burying Missouri in Kansas City.....well, since then Missouri got destroyed by Illinois in St Louis and Missouri is about to fall to 8-8 & 0-3 in conference, with a home loss to South Carolina.....Missouri is down 3 in OT with a minute left
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Back to back reasonable word count posts 👏🙏💪😍
 
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fatsam98

fatsam98

Heisman
Mar 23, 2005
44,202
40,142
113
goru7 said:
Again the ******** with Seton Hall. They demolish St. John’s Net 32 to their 66. They were up 28 and 20 plus most of second half and St. John’s scores last 5 points to lose by 15 not 20. But if game control is not part of the NET then it should be. Other teams go up 10-16 with that win at home and 16-22 on the road. Seton Hall only 8. That NET formula needs tweaking.
Unless we get it in gear starting tonight against Nebraska , it will not matter . But our 1-7 Quad 1 , with no Quad 2 games so far and perfect Quad 3 and 4 , is not as terrible as it looks , 4 road , 2 neutral, 1 home in the losses and a road win .
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Idk, at this point in season moving up 8 for a big home win doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
 
N

NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
14,426
13,300
113
fatsam98 said:
Pretty hard to take a ranking seriously when it drops you for beating a team 40 places higher in said ranking
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Not saying your wrong, but were we impacted by other teams moving up and such?
It's not like there was just our game played yesterday.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
253,025
182,001
113
RUTGERS falls to 93

Nebraska falls 5 to 58.


RU was favored and probably wasnt very efficient last night in taking 78 shots

Mississippi St and Boston U lost last night

Its probably a tight pack in the 80s and 90s


Road wins by double digits are the coveted Wonka ticket
 
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P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
14,530
13,879
78
fatsam98 said:
Pretty hard to take a ranking seriously when it drops you for beating a team 40 places higher in said ranking
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Yeah - I don’t like that either. The old RPI system punished you for playing bad teams even if you blew them out big so I guess it’s pick your poison?

I usually like to compare the metric output for NET with the pure results based system but the Real-time RPI site isn’t correct. For some reason it’s not including our wins over Indiana, Nebraska and St Peters (has us at 125 without those games). Not sure if another RPI site with the right info still exists.
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
NET is a great tool for SOS. I know the WAB is not on anyone's radar come selection Sunday. We went from a -1.4 games to a -1.1 games with the win.

If we lose to Illinois we go back to -1.3. NET is mainly interested in the score. Losing by 3 vs illinous will help us much more in the NET than a 3 point win over nebraska
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
253,025
182,001
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
NET is a great tool for SOS. I know the WAB is not on anyone's radar come selection Sunday. We went from a -1.4 games to a -1.1 games with the win.

If we lose to Illinois we go back to -1.3. NET is mainly interested in the score. Losing by 3 vs illinous will help us much more in the NET than a 3 point win over nebraska
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absolutely on your last point
 
R

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
NET is now more closely aligned to kenpom then it had been, so it looks like it weighs efficiency more so than just score.

Take our win against Indiana for instance. We won, but we had low efficiency.... It's just that Indiana happened to play worse on that day.

Of course, that cuts both ways. Our defensive efficiency looked great against Indiana.
 
P

PhillyRU

All-Conference
Apr 17, 2021
1,080
1,767
96
RUChoppin said:
NET is now more closely aligned to kenpom then it had been, so it looks like it weighs efficiency more so than just score.

Take our win against Indiana for instance. We won, but we had low efficiency.... It's just that Indiana happened to play worse on that day.

Of course, that cuts both ways. Our defensive efficiency looked great against Indiana.
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Yea efficiency margin is the only thing that matters in that sense. BartTorvik has Indiana as our highest-rated B1G game despite it being our least efficient offensive night in conference, just because our defense was so elite.
 
B

BillyC80

Heisman
Oct 23, 2006
17,383
15,955
72
RUChoppin said:
NET is now more closely aligned to kenpom then it had been, so it looks like it weighs efficiency more so than just score.

Take our win against Indiana for instance. We won, but we had low efficiency.... It's just that Indiana happened to play worse on that day.

Of course, that cuts both ways. Our defensive efficiency looked great against Indiana.
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Choppin, is there a metric that combines only offensive and defensive efficiency (no other factors) and if so, is there a team by team ranking for that (not sure if Kenpom or Bartorvik already do this)? I’m assuming it’s not as simple as adding the two rankings (offensive and defensive efficiency) and dividing by two, lol.

Last question, is there any evidence that shows which is preferable, offensive or defensive efficiency, in terms of outcomes?

I would think defensive efficiency is preferable because it’s more consistent game to game, while offensive efficiency can be more of a crapshoot (especially when you run into a team like Rutgers). TIA
 
B

biazza38

Heisman
Nov 18, 2012
14,685
18,120
81
This has been my biggest issue with the NET, you don’t get much credit for a home win outside of NET 30.
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
BillyC80 said:
Choppin, is there a metric that combines only offensive and defensive efficiency (no other factors) and if so, is there a team by team ranking for that (not sure if Kenpom or Bartorvik already do this)? I’m assuming it’s not as simple as adding the two rankings (offensive and defensive efficiency) and dividing by two, lol.

Last question, is there any evidence that shows which is preferable, offensive or defensive efficiency, in terms of outcomes?

I would think defensive efficiency is preferable because it’s more consistent game to game, while offensive efficiency can be more of a crapshoot (especially when you run into a team like Rutgers). TIA
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Your bart ranking and kenpom ranking is just adjusted OE - adjusted DE.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
253,025
182,001
113
i dont like it...santa clara and sam houston were not close to at large bids
 
G

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,490
7,817
113
RUChoppin said:
It's not a linear progression from 1 to 350 in NET, but they don't publish the actual metric only the rank.

Look at kenpom. It's a 1.47 difference between 18 and 19, and a 1.44 difference between 69 and 79. You could improve by 1.45 and jump 10 spots, or no spots.
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The algorithm somehow started Seton Hall very low. I understand it is not linear but the initial value was flawed and therefore the subsequent values are also flawed. No team with Seton Hall’s wins home and away should be in the 50’s
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
253,025
182,001
113
goru7 said:
The algorithm somehow started Seton Hall very low. I understand it is not linear but the initial value was flawed and therefore the subsequent values are also flawed. No team with Seton Hall’s wins home and away should be in the 50’s
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9, 11, and 13 wins in Quad 4 are playing a role. If you schedule these teams have to beat them by 20 or more
 
R

rob kight

All-American
Oct 22, 2020
5,050
6,429
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
NET is a great tool for SOS. I know the WAB is not on anyone's radar come selection Sunday. We went from a -1.4 games to a -1.1 games with the win.

If we lose to Illinois we go back to -1.3. NET is mainly interested in the score. Losing by 3 vs illinous will help us much more in the NET than a 3 point win over nebraska
Click to expand...
How about winning by 3?
 
M

MCKnight

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2012
2,276
1,893
113
Rutgers really only has 5 more sure fire Quad 1 opportunities. Purdue 2x, Wisconsin 2x, and at Illinois. I’d think if we want any at large chance, we’d need to win 3 of these 5 games. And still somehow get to 10 conference wins, likely 11.
 
K

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
0
MCKnight2004 said:
Rutgers really only has 5 more sure fire Quad 1 opportunities. Purdue 2x, Wisconsin 2x, and at Illinois. I’d think if we want any at large chance, we’d need to win 3 of these 5 games. And still somehow get to 10 conference wins, likely 11.
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Hold serve at home against Purdue and Wisconsin and steal a couple road wins and you’re at 11-9…19-12 overall going into the BigTen tournament. I think 21 wins and you’re an absolute lock for March Madness J Williams and even Ogbole might have enough of a positive impact to get on/over the bubble.
 
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