Why is that?
Keep up. It was bullsh!t from the beginning.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less
Why is that?
There are countless models that had death tolls well past one million deaths if there was no public health intervention. It is a widely held belief in the scientific community that if we just let it rip the death toll would have been immense.
I think you are referring to the Imperial College modeling. The reason that the number changed (actually narrowed to the low range of the exceptionally wide initial estimates) was precisely because of the public health intervention in the UK. Epidemics are effected greatly by public health interventions such as social distancing and given the exponential nature of the math small changes in inputs can account for massive changes in the result.
In short I would suggest that you sir are the one that needs to keep up.
Keep up. It was bullsh!t from the beginning.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less
There are countless models that had death tolls well past one million deaths if there was no public health intervention. It is a widely held belief in the scientific community that if we just let it rip the death toll would have been immense.
I think you are referring to the Imperial College modeling. The reason that the number changed (actually narrowed to the low range of the exceptionally wide initial estimates) was precisely because of the public health intervention in the UK. Epidemics are effected greatly by public health interventions such as social distancing and given the exponential nature of the math small changes in inputs can account for massive changes in the result.
In short I would suggest that you sir are the one that needs to keep up.
Read the editor’s note in your link, dude. It says exactly what I just posted.
I certainly agree that if Sweden’s strategy works then you may in fact be correct. I fully expect however that Sweden will soon pivot in a panic much like the U.K. did.
The vast majority of brilliant scientific minds feel that a novel virus this contagious and this deadly would cause an immense loss of human life if we didn’t intervene.
That was 3 days after lockdown measures which would have taken 2 weeks (at least) to have any effect. Everyone trying to save face.
You aren’t understanding the basic premise of modeling. Bc the changes in policy were made those inputs were entered into the model and then those changes were projected forward throughout the duration of the epidemic. To fixate on the three days displays a profound misunderstanding of how modeling actually works.
Maybe you’ll take her word for it.
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
Bojo pivoted from a herd immunity/let it rip strategy to one in line with most of world’s social distancing practices. When an input of that consequence changes to that extent it has a massive effect on the result of the model.
Anyways, I respect your right to believe whatever you want. Good luck to you and stay safe out there.
Probably bad Karma my way, but good thing we have Sweden:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
look at their curve. Sure seems to me like they’re heading in the wrong direction. We’ll see. Though I would’ve preferred that you not elect or make things so personal I still wish you the best. Have a good night.
You must not be looking at the same thing I am.
4/3 new cases 563
4/4 new cases 312
4/3 new deaths 50
4/4 new deaths 15
Edit: and again, this is a product of testing, not a product of viral spread
Lol....There has actually been a poltical party that had given a **** about US budgetary deficits in the past 40 years to the extent we should give a ****. That is the Democratic Party.
You live in fear, others don’tCool, we live in a different place. My area has 63 confirmed cases, 19 of those have been hospitalized and 7 have died as of yesterday. We have confirmed community spread, yet Lowe’s is packed to the gills with people buying flowers and just browsing around as a family because they have nothing else to do, despite a local shelter in place order. You are in a bubble, congrats!
They also “lessen the symptoms” for folks with lupus. Who are now competing for chloroquine with a bunch of right wing hoarders. Why don’t we let the docs and viral experts give advice and follow best practices. Instead of thinking you know more than people with MDs and PhDs.
But of course some of you know better and will not be convinced otherwise. What is the color of the sky in your world?
I thought we were tough and strong as Americans? Our grandparents went through a lot worse and didn’t whine because they couldn’t go sit in a restaurant or go buy flowers to plant.
Nobody wants this to drag out, they need to expedite the process on the vaccine.
Number one, there is 0 proof the economy is better off if we do nothing. The lasting effect of taking millions of people out of the economy would also have huge impact. Have a bunch of doctors, nurses and medical professionals die and then we can’t care for people? Lasting impacts. Taking millions of people with disposable income out of the economy? Lasting impacts.
There is going to be severe economic impact from the pandemic either way. It could be possible that keeping people alive, keeping our health systems from being over rein actually is the best economic course.
Maybe I would, but this is where I'm from and I have family here. It doesn't mean I can't advocate for ideas that can make life better here.
Number one, there is 0 proof the economy is better off if we do nothing. The lasting effect of taking millions of people out of the economy would also have huge impact. Have a bunch of doctors, nurses and medical professionals die and then we can’t care for people? Lasting impacts. Taking millions of people with disposable income out of the economy? Lasting impacts.
There is going to be severe economic impact from the pandemic either way. It could be possible that keeping people alive, keeping our health systems from being over rein actually is the best economic course.
I thought we were tough and strong as Americans? Our grandparents went through a lot worse and didn’t whine because they couldn’t go sit in a restaurant or go buy flowers to plant.
Nobody wants this to drag out, they need to expedite the process on the vaccine.
The role of government is first national defense and then second infrastructure to promote and maintain commerce. Anything they''e done beyond that has been an utter failure.We are not a pure capitalist society, we socialize roads, healthcare for the elderly, retirement and education. Income inequality is at an all time high, it’s not all or nothing. We will never be perfect, but our country is in record debt, under significant strain and wage growth and GDP growth have been slow despite virtually free money. Maybe we should try something other than print and spend and making people billionaires for a few years.
When you discuss the differences between communism and socialism the line gets pretty damned blurry. The immigrants I know are amazed at the giveaways in this country. They're amazed by the availability of healthcare services. They're amazed at our standard of living. They're amazed at the opportunity our capitalistic system offers them.No ones arguing for commie socialism. The success of the American system allows for a more humane social safety net. And the immigrants I know just shake their heads at the stupidity of right wing politics in the US.
You see, more denial ,perfect denial, twisted denial, making claims no one has made about the drug, and then saying 'see? This drug doesn't clear the virus from the body' which is not the point of this drug, its purpose or its claim, but hey, who needs science? Orange man like, we hate. Total flat earthers.There is this.
Heres the problem, over six thousand MDs are currently using this drug deniers are denying.They also “lessen the symptoms” for folks with lupus. Who are now competing for chloroquine with a bunch of right wing hoarders. Why don’t we let the docs and viral experts give advice and follow best practices. Instead of thinking you know more than people with MDs and PhDs.
But of course some of you know better and will not be convinced otherwise. What is the color of the sky in your world?
So korea says hi, you know, the model for the planet? You denying this too?Based on what? Cause the world kinda seems to disagree
Proof? My DIL has her supply? Link?No, the government literally bought the supplies for trials, causing people to not get the medicine.
No? I will leave this right here for you. Trump has his faults but attempting to claim he could have prevented this or even made it significantly less sever is having ones hate blinders on. The only thing that would have stopped this was shutting any and all international travel down. If he would have did that at the time. The left and the media would have tore him apart for over reacting and abusing his powerI don’t recall Fauci ever making that statement, but I do recall Trump making that statement..
The natural progession,ala progressive,of socialism is to communism. Just ask MarxWhen you discuss the differences between communism and socialism the line gets pretty damned blurry. The immigrants I know are amazed at the giveaways in this country. They're amazed by the availability of healthcare services. They're amazed at our standard of living. They're amazed at the opportunity our capitalistic system offers them.
.
But but but, they only ever disagree, the unscientific, religion of man, flat earth Godless media say.No? I will leave this right here for you.
It's here too but I'm not completely paranoid about catching it either. I keep my distance from people and others are doing the same. Sounds like you need to move to a red state. BTW, Omaha is not a red area. The OWH has turned it blue.
Proof? My DIL has her supply? Link?