Covid 6.0

Status
Not open for further replies.

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
There are countless models that had death tolls well past one million deaths if there was no public health intervention. It is a widely held belief in the scientific community that if we just let it rip the death toll would have been immense.

I think you are referring to the Imperial College modeling. The reason that the number changed (actually narrowed to the low range of the exceptionally wide initial estimates) was precisely because of the public health intervention in the UK. Epidemics are effected greatly by public health interventions such as social distancing and given the exponential nature of the math small changes in inputs can account for massive changes in the result.

In short I would suggest that you sir are the one that needs to keep up.

We will see with Sweden. Immense pressure on governors in US to shut it down, because no one wants a baseline to compare it to.
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
There are countless models that had death tolls well past one million deaths if there was no public health intervention. It is a widely held belief in the scientific community that if we just let it rip the death toll would have been immense.

I think you are referring to the Imperial College modeling. The reason that the number changed (actually narrowed to the low range of the exceptionally wide initial estimates) was precisely because of the public health intervention in the UK. Epidemics are effected greatly by public health interventions such as social distancing and given the exponential nature of the math small changes in inputs can account for massive changes in the result.

In short I would suggest that you sir are the one that needs to keep up.

I will add, that you got your money, so you don't have a leg to stand on.
 

RaisingArizona

Sophomore
Mar 30, 2009
438
152
0
I certainly agree that if Sweden’s strategy works then you may in fact be correct. I fully expect however that Sweden will soon pivot in a panic much like the U.K. did.

The vast majority of brilliant scientific minds feel that a novel virus this contagious and this deadly would cause an immense loss of human life if we didn’t intervene.
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
I certainly agree that if Sweden’s strategy works then you may in fact be correct. I fully expect however that Sweden will soon pivot in a panic much like the U.K. did.

The vast majority of brilliant scientific minds feel that a novel virus this contagious and this deadly would cause an immense loss of human life if we didn’t intervene.

Ugh. Death rate lower so far this year than average for past 5+ years. COVID-19 barely running ahead of average pneumonia deaths. Fear mongering and stock market needing a correction lead to this.
 

RaisingArizona

Sophomore
Mar 30, 2009
438
152
0
That was 3 days after lockdown measures which would have taken 2 weeks (at least) to have any effect. Everyone trying to save face.

You aren’t understanding the basic premise of modeling. Bc the changes in policy were made those inputs were entered into the model and then those changes were projected forward throughout the duration of the epidemic. To fixate on the three days displays a profound misunderstanding of how modeling actually works.
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
You aren’t understanding the basic premise of modeling. Bc the changes in policy were made those inputs were entered into the model and then those changes were projected forward throughout the duration of the epidemic. To fixate on the three days displays a profound misunderstanding of how modeling actually works.

No, YOU aren't understanding. All of this "data" we have to date is not about the virus, it is about the testing. You go from "0 to 60" in two weeks, of course everything is going to be exponential, because the increase in testing was exponential. No one has a clue about anything, even the "experts" because no one has any data that is meaningful.

Edit: But I'll add that it is OK for you, because you are triple dipping into the 2t stimulus plan and probably taking money away from businesses that actually need it.
 
Last edited:

RaisingArizona

Sophomore
Mar 30, 2009
438
152
0
Maybe you’ll take her word for it.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Bojo pivoted from a herd immunity/let it rip strategy to one in line with most of world’s social distancing practices. When an input of that consequence changes to that extent it has a massive effect on the result of the model.

Anyways, I respect your right to believe whatever you want. Good luck to you and stay safe out there.
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
Maybe you’ll take her word for it.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Bojo pivoted from a herd immunity/let it rip strategy to one in line with most of world’s social distancing practices. When an input of that consequence changes to that extent it has a massive effect on the result of the model.

Anyways, I respect your right to believe whatever you want. Good luck to you and stay safe out there.

Probably bad Karma my way, but good thing we have Sweden:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
 

yort2000

Junior
Jan 23, 2007
2,267
298
0
look at their curve. Sure seems to me like they’re heading in the wrong direction. We’ll see. Though I would’ve preferred that you not elect or make things so personal I still wish you the best. Have a good night.

You must not be looking at the same thing I am.
4/3 new cases 563
4/4 new cases 312

4/3 new deaths 50
4/4 new deaths 15

Edit: and again, this is a product of testing, not a product of viral spread
 

RaisingArizona

Sophomore
Mar 30, 2009
438
152
0
You must not be looking at the same thing I am.
4/3 new cases 563
4/4 new cases 312

4/3 new deaths 50
4/4 new deaths 15

Edit: and again, this is a product of testing, not a product of viral spread

That’s one day. I highly doubt that trend is going to hold. I hope it does of course. If it does the whole world needs to figure out what Sweden is doing. Things seemed pessimistic there just one day before.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...thousands-of-deaths-amid-laxer-virus-response
 

leodisflowers

Senior
Feb 25, 2011
14,801
808
0
Cool, we live in a different place. My area has 63 confirmed cases, 19 of those have been hospitalized and 7 have died as of yesterday. We have confirmed community spread, yet Lowe’s is packed to the gills with people buying flowers and just browsing around as a family because they have nothing else to do, despite a local shelter in place order. You are in a bubble, congrats!
You live in fear, others don’t
 

GBRforLife1

Redshirt
Feb 18, 2020
13,913
3
38
They also “lessen the symptoms” for folks with lupus. Who are now competing for chloroquine with a bunch of right wing hoarders. Why don’t we let the docs and viral experts give advice and follow best practices. Instead of thinking you know more than people with MDs and PhDs.
But of course some of you know better and will not be convinced otherwise. What is the color of the sky in your world?


Wtf? Is that you, Biden?
 

GBRforLife1

Redshirt
Feb 18, 2020
13,913
3
38
I thought we were tough and strong as Americans? Our grandparents went through a lot worse and didn’t whine because they couldn’t go sit in a restaurant or go buy flowers to plant.

Nobody wants this to drag out, they need to expedite the process on the vaccine.

This is just the most ridiculous assumption ever. We're not tough and strong Americans because we want to get back to life that we're unnecessarily halting due to fear over scary virus from China that the media hyped up.

You stay inside and clutch your pearls the rest of us will be just fine.
 

GBRforLife1

Redshirt
Feb 18, 2020
13,913
3
38
Number one, there is 0 proof the economy is better off if we do nothing. The lasting effect of taking millions of people out of the economy would also have huge impact. Have a bunch of doctors, nurses and medical professionals die and then we can’t care for people? Lasting impacts. Taking millions of people with disposable income out of the economy? Lasting impacts.

There is going to be severe economic impact from the pandemic either way. It could be possible that keeping people alive, keeping our health systems from being over rein actually is the best economic course.

Literally millions are taken out of the economy every single year.

All those people you list die every single year.

You continuously act like this is some extinction level event. It won't even add up to 1% of the population - probably even less than .1%. But here your are just being disingenuous with all these false premises.

For someone who does planning you sure avoid actual numbers a lot.
 

GBRforLife1

Redshirt
Feb 18, 2020
13,913
3
38
Maybe I would, but this is where I'm from and I have family here. It doesn't mean I can't advocate for ideas that can make life better here.

Ahhh yes the ole, "I expect a government system and millions of people to change for me" attitude.

Take your family with you.
 

GBRforLife1

Redshirt
Feb 18, 2020
13,913
3
38
Number one, there is 0 proof the economy is better off if we do nothing. The lasting effect of taking millions of people out of the economy would also have huge impact. Have a bunch of doctors, nurses and medical professionals die and then we can’t care for people? Lasting impacts. Taking millions of people with disposable income out of the economy? Lasting impacts.

There is going to be severe economic impact from the pandemic either way. It could be possible that keeping people alive, keeping our health systems from being over rein actually is the best economic course.

I thought we were tough and strong as Americans? Our grandparents went through a lot worse and didn’t whine because they couldn’t go sit in a restaurant or go buy flowers to plant.

Nobody wants this to drag out, they need to expedite the process on the vaccine.

Hey @egaRdeR I found those straw men you were worried about.
 

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,383
12,799
78
We are not a pure capitalist society, we socialize roads, healthcare for the elderly, retirement and education. Income inequality is at an all time high, it’s not all or nothing. We will never be perfect, but our country is in record debt, under significant strain and wage growth and GDP growth have been slow despite virtually free money. Maybe we should try something other than print and spend and making people billionaires for a few years.
The role of government is first national defense and then second infrastructure to promote and maintain commerce. Anything they''e done beyond that has been an utter failure.
 

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,383
12,799
78
No ones arguing for commie socialism. The success of the American system allows for a more humane social safety net. And the immigrants I know just shake their heads at the stupidity of right wing politics in the US.
When you discuss the differences between communism and socialism the line gets pretty damned blurry. The immigrants I know are amazed at the giveaways in this country. They're amazed by the availability of healthcare services. They're amazed at our standard of living. They're amazed at the opportunity our capitalistic system offers them.
.
 
Nov 23, 2003
1,507
182
0
In COVID related news the negative test results jumped back up to ~85% negative yesterday, which had been trending around ~75%.

Could just be a product of a huge jump in avg daily tests though, but will be something to watch. Yesterday was the first day where over 200k test were processed.
 

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
There is this.
You see, more denial ,perfect denial, twisted denial, making claims no one has made about the drug, and then saying 'see? This drug doesn't clear the virus from the body' which is not the point of this drug, its purpose or its claim, but hey, who needs science? Orange man like, we hate. Total flat earthers.
 

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
This is rated as total distance, not staying at home. If your store is further away, your not staying at home according to more idiots in our media.
Fail
 

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
Why aren't libs using science? Just because your work, or store is further away, they're se used to their cities, science need not apply, of course theres a store within a mile?
More flat earth speak
 

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
They also “lessen the symptoms” for folks with lupus. Who are now competing for chloroquine with a bunch of right wing hoarders. Why don’t we let the docs and viral experts give advice and follow best practices. Instead of thinking you know more than people with MDs and PhDs.
But of course some of you know better and will not be convinced otherwise. What is the color of the sky in your world?
Heres the problem, over six thousand MDs are currently using this drug deniers are denying.
The numbers are going up every day too, as word and availability spreads.
But hey, flat earth deniers gotta flat earth .
 

Ewooc

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2010
6,114
3,053
0
I don’t recall Fauci ever making that statement, but I do recall Trump making that statement..
No? I will leave this right here for you. Trump has his faults but attempting to claim he could have prevented this or even made it significantly less sever is having ones hate blinders on. The only thing that would have stopped this was shutting any and all international travel down. If he would have did that at the time. The left and the media would have tore him apart for over reacting and abusing his power
 
Last edited:

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
When you discuss the differences between communism and socialism the line gets pretty damned blurry. The immigrants I know are amazed at the giveaways in this country. They're amazed by the availability of healthcare services. They're amazed at our standard of living. They're amazed at the opportunity our capitalistic system offers them.
.
The natural progession,ala progressive,of socialism is to communism. Just ask Marx
 

Ki113rSk3r69

Senior
Jan 9, 2006
3,370
520
1
It's here too but I'm not completely paranoid about catching it either. I keep my distance from people and others are doing the same. Sounds like you need to move to a red state. BTW, Omaha is not a red area. The OWH has turned it blue.

You were earlier this last month?! What changed?
By the way, how’s your kid doing? Last you said she had come down with a “wicked cold?”
How did you guys fair 7-14 days after she got better?
 

MOHUSKER

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2009
16,561
1,806
113
Proof? My DIL has her supply? Link?

31 million doses...

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020...ossible-treatments-for-covid-19-patients.html

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) today accepted 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate donated by Sandoz, the Novartis generics and biosimilars division, and one million doses of chloroquine phosphate donated by Bayer Pharmaceuticals, for possible use in treating patients hospitalized with COVID-19 or for use in clinical trials.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.