No, what he's saying is, the virus IS more contagious than we know, unless you know of mass antibody testing?
If so,please share.
Covid 6.0
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If so,please share.
I know a lot of people like to deny this, but anecdotally this has been here since November/December. Visits for influenza like symptoms began running quite a bit above average beginning week 45 of 2019 and has been running way above average ever since. Remember that the 2017-2018 flu season broke records for death and illness.
The modeling is not modeling the exponential growth of the virus, it is modeling the exponential growth of the testing.
When you form a model, you have two numbers when deciding morbidity rate.
Those infected vs thosewho die like a fraction.
So, if one in a hundred die it is 1/100.
However, if we find more people who weren't 'in the system' because they had little or no symptoms, the denominator changes, and since they've alreadybeen sick with no symptoms, the denominator changes to say 1/200, or 1/350.
Until we check those who have the antibodies, we simply don't know the true morbidity rate, which is currently too high.
Those infected vs thosewho die like a fraction.
So, if one in a hundred die it is 1/100.
However, if we find more people who weren't 'in the system' because they had little or no symptoms, the denominator changes, and since they've alreadybeen sick with no symptoms, the denominator changes to say 1/200, or 1/350.
Until we check those who have the antibodies, we simply don't know the true morbidity rate, which is currently too high.
8,000 people is too high? Especially when deaths from other causes is running way lower than that and deaths from pneumonia (not to mention other communicable diseases) seem to be running lower in lock step with that number.
I'm just keeping it apples to apples. The social distancing is having other effects on transmissible disease, as I'm sure, auto accidents and work related hospitalization etc.
I'm saying only concerning wuhan virus, that knowing the deaths are only half the equation.
Until we know everyone who's already had it, including potentially anywheres from 3-30% as found on the pricess ship and the italian city of oh, where everyone was tested, but large numbers had no symptoms, yet they had the antibodies.
The deniers exist rejecting science, six thousand doctors worldwide using and recommending chloroquine..
Pure deniers, the world actually may be coming to an end, yet we see these unscientific deniers all around.
Must be cause they have no faith,if you know what I mean.
Pure deniers, the world actually may be coming to an end, yet we see these unscientific deniers all around.
Must be cause they have no faith,if you know what I mean.
Same could be said for nearly every single poster in this thread, you and I included.
There's just as many independents who would vote for Bernie than moderate Republicans or Independents who would vote for Biden. I hope Bernie runs third party and screws establishment Democrats over like the establishment has screwed Bernie over in two election cycles now.
While I don't think Trump has handled this crisis well, there's nothing he could have done to stop the outbreak in New York City. That is mostly the mayor's fault, as he encouraged people to go out to restaurants and movies and parades up until mid-March. Do you think the mayor and people of NYC would have complied if Trump had told them to shut down the city earlier? No chance. Not to mention, the subways are still packed with people.
Trump should not have downplayed things early on, but it would not have made much of a difference in the long run. Many states and cities have managed it well, but then there are some like New Orleans who didn't cancel Mardi Gras and Florida that didn't cancel Spring Break and close all the beaches early enough. But half the cases in the U.S. have been in the NYC area, most of the rest of the country has done a good job managing things so far.
Biden is deteriorating before our eyes. It's hard to watch. I feel bad for the guy.
Yes, the media and the government can certainly blow things out of proportion (not sure how the judicial branch is involved, n
There's a post in here with him saying it late January. Does that make you feel better about Trump if the expert was saying it?
There's a post in here with him saying it late January. Does that make you feel better about Trump if the expert was saying it?
There's 8.3 million people in NYC
19.4 million in NY State.
23.6 million in the NYC metro which includes part of lovely NJ.
There's 113k confirmed cases in NY State
With 15,900 hospitalized.
That's .58% as confirmed cases... Does something barely over a half a percent even qualify as an outbreak?
19.4 million in NY State.
23.6 million in the NYC metro which includes part of lovely NJ.
There's 113k confirmed cases in NY State
With 15,900 hospitalized.
That's .58% as confirmed cases... Does something barely over a half a percent even qualify as an outbreak?
I know a lot of people like to deny this, but anecdotally this has been here since November/December. Visits for influenza like symptoms began running quite a bit above average beginning week 45 of 2019 and has been running way above average ever since. Remember that the 2017-2018 flu season broke records for death and illness.
OK, I don't like to trust anyone else's anaylsis, so I downloaded the data and did analysis by myself.
Source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
From looking at the data I found out that week 11 is the week ended 3/14/20. I have data for week 12, but I don't know if it is 100% complete, but probably close enough for comparison. I have data from 2013-14 season, So I'm going to have a 6 year average with which to compare 2019-2020 data. I'm just going to look at week 9 (week ending 2/29/20) through week 12 (week ending 3/21/20 ).
Pneumonia deaths in USA
Week____6 year average____2019-2020____Difference
9__________4,110___________3,390________-720
10_________4,129___________3,404________-725
11_________4,033___________3,203________-830
12_________3,929___________2,930________-999
Total___________________________________-3,274
We are now at the end of week 14 and total coranavirus deaths at this moment are listed as 8,452. If we assume that the next two weeks of pneumonia deaths are 1,000 lower than average that is 5,274 pneumonia deaths below average. That gives us 3,178 Covid deaths over the pneumonia average. What the F are we doing? Why are we shutting off the economy and putting 10,000,000 people out of work for this?
EDIT: And the standard deviation between the previous 6 years is pretty low, usually only around 200 from high to low
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I’m not a Trump hater, but he has plenty of faults.. Speaks and tweets before he thinks been caught in lies by making up his own facts and thinking churches were going to be full two weeks ago for Easter was a doozy..
It's amazing, isn't it? They just couldn't care any less about facts. It's beyond strange.
Yes, more people are getting sick and more are dying than would be expected, that is the very definition of an outbreak.
See my post above. 3,000 more in comparison with pneumonia out of 325,000,000 is an outbreak?
I’m not a Trump hater, but he has plenty of faults.. Speaks and tweets before he thinks been caught in lies by making up his own facts and thinking churches were going to be full two weeks ago for Easter was a doozy..
What that has to do with it, I don't know. What I do know is you bashed on Trump even though the expert who everyone thinks is the best thing since sliced bread said pretty much the exact same thing, but that guy gets a pass. You see the problem? Of course Trump has faults, good lord, but don't be or act like an intellectual turd. That's 99% of the problem; people want to destroy him because of something else that he has done to piss them off, but they keep tripping up on the way, and don't seem care. It's pathetic to watch how much hate people have and how it consumes them.
I don't know...I think the Bernie needs to be nice and play along because the democrats will eventually drift into social democrat territory. Europe has generally been ruled by social democrats since the end of world war II...they aren't socialists states, and some places like germany have social democrat rulers but a much more pure form of market capitalism than the U.S. Germany believes in a strict form of separation of State and Corporate. You cannot lobby, the government does not help your company, you cannot get tax breaks, you have to beat the competition without getting politicians in your pocket...at least that is the theory. American Capitalism is Socialism for the Wealthy...get the government on your side and you beat the competition with the help of the taxpayer. American companies rely on state supreme courts to support their anti-consumer/worker practices...as far as I can tell no monopoly has ever formed without the help of the government...
Yes...the data isn’t complete for this season yet and will be revised as time goes on once charts and morbidities are reviewed.
1,224 deaths reported so far on Saturday In the US, the numbers are accelerating, that’s 15% in one day with nationwide efforts to slow the growth, what would it look like if we did nothing?
Look I never bashed Trump, heard him down play the virus earlier before the virus had gotten out of control and I’m referring too the people that said he said it was a hoax.. I just never heard Dr Fauci say it till it was brought to my attention.. How is that bashing Trump.
Isn't the problem the Covid 19 virus? Or am I one of the "they" who doesn't seem to care? This thread has deteriorated from a thread about the Covid virus with a few political thoughts into an all out political bashing thread. Meanwhile there are 1077 confirmed cases (an increase of 64) and 10 deaths in my state.
Stay home. Wash your hands. Play nice.
Maybe social democracy isn't such a bad idea. Some European countries have a higher standard of living than the U.S. We don't have to completely copy their social welfare programs. Europe has had glacial economic growth for a long time, and I think such a large portion of government expenditures dedicated to social welfare programs has something to do with it. If more of their public expenditure was spent on innovating their economy, I think they would be better off. I don't think limited state control of industries important to national security is a bad idea at all. Government incentives to innovative industries isn't a bad idea either.
And the interesting part of a lot of their systems is they actually have a more free market economy with less regulation and some even don’t have a minimum wage.
They've been coasting with us paying for their defense and pharmaceutical drugs as a short list.
And their economy still sucks in comparison.
Take away 8-10% of their GDP give or take just for those two things and try again.
There was never a need to "shut down the economy". We needed to shut down mass transit, bars, restaurants, and limit gathering size so that people could maintain their physical distancing. Ordering people to stay in their houses and taping off parks is STUPID. No doubt there were some "pneumonia" deaths early on that were COViD-19 and not diagnosed that way. The social distancing and better attention to hygiene is going to dramatically reduce influenza deaths as well. It is also true that the people who tend to succumb to COVID-19 are the same people who get pneumonia and die from influenza. Sorting it all is difficult. The flu season will end much earlier this year than normal due to the steps being taken but IMO don't get too hung up on the apparent low numbers of deaths from COVID-19. This deal is going to drag on all summer IMO.
Deaths that would've happened anyway. They just be labeled differently.
Ask Sweden what it looks like if you don't do anything.
Did you even read this article?
I don't think anyone credible has claimed the drugs cure the virus. The drugs have always been said to lessen the symptoms. The article says they do that.
1,224 means nothing. How many people die in the US on average everyday? How does that relate to today? How many people died today in relation to the average? What was the breakdown of those deaths? You throwing out one number is nothing more than fear mongering and that is the virus that is killing this country.
You're dealing in semantics. You don't get just a generic "pneumonia" outbreak. You get a Corona virus epidemic or outbreak if you will which has become a pandemic. You can get an influenza epidemic but you don't lump the two together scientifically. IF New York had continued their moronic lack of control measures instead of finally shutting down their bars and restaurants they wouldn't have enough refrigerated trucks to store the bodies. That said, I think stay at home orders are ridiculous BUT the obvious truth is that New Yorkers and the folks from New Orleans aren't smart enough to keep their distance during an epidemic without the government telling them to.
They have a higher death rate than the rest of Scandinavia and have people trying to force a lockdown, even their leader is changing his tune.
And meanwhile their economy is also taking a hit, despite staying “open”
If you really believe that then go live there.
Take AOC and Omar and Tlaib and Pelosi and Schumer and Schiff with you.
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