sigh. More fallacy. When math is a predictor it is a hypothetical. Hence why you have to use the word “if”
Keep being very afraid of 2020s swine SARS avian flu. There’s really no hope. This guy understands math
Corona Virus
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sigh. More fallacy. When math is a predictor it is a hypothetical. Hence why you have to use the word “if”
Keep being very afraid of 2020s swine SARS avian flu. There’s really no hope. This guy understands math
My post is to shine light on actual numbers.
The post I was referring to is by etiological researcher with knowledge of the issue.
saying it’s not as bad as the media is playing it out to be etc
Thanks. But reality is, we don't know. Only those on the ground truly know, and there was the post from the chinese nurse that said it was actually worse, but she likely didn't have a thirty thousand foot view on this overall
You stated earlier I think that you work in health care. You must know that due to the nature of Influenza viruses in general in both humans and animals it is absolutely impossible to make a flu vaccine that is 100% effective. No doubt it generates revenue but not nearly as much revenue as this country would lose if we didn't have it. Never say never. I used to not get flu shots until I had to go on an immunoodulating drug.
Science is disovered through math, or can be explained though math. If a theory is repeatable every time, it becomes fact.
If those numbers double, then my math is wrong too. But to guarantee they'll go down, we are all still waiting what you know about this flu,with you giving us ths guarantee.
That's your argument, but saying it wont happen doesn't leave us much.
You must know, these millions of cultured doses takes time, and that theyre simply a guess as to which variant actually sprouts up, right?
I haven’t guaranteed anything. at least I hope not. I don’t deal in absolutes. If this is the mega pandemic, then so be it.
but we’ve done this before. And they turn out to be squadoosh, every time. So this one is different and now everyone is an expert because they read about it. Blah blah blah
btw, science is discovered through observation. Repeatable and testable observations. With a sprinkling of math when needed. Sometimes more. What exactly have you studied about this virus that nobody else has access to? Or is it your math pedigree?
Since youre more in the minority, I give you the first attempts to explain your expertise, as a gentleman, I give you that.
Again, until I see something other than feelings, I will wait .
And everything is assigned a number,whether its a weight, a dimension,a temp, everything can be explained through math.
But you aren't getting my point here, which is fine. But you possess no guarantees, and are falling onto humanity and its ways, motives and feelings, not anything approaching science, which is fine, and has a place, but so does science,even amongst this human expressions with all its failings.
The problem with simply minded people is it is either good or bad. Flu shots can't be made universal, but they are made to be effective, as effective as economically viable...AND...Flu shots are a revenue stream. And they are built into health budgets nation-wide...but losing a mid-40s engineer to the flu is also expensive and not a good thing. So medical can be doing a "good" job of producing a product, while also doing a "good" job of making profits. The challenge is keeping the balance. Making sure investment is encouraged and the science is up to date, while also compensating those who invest. I don't have a right to a flu shot. I don't invest in a pharma company, nor pay for the R&D, but I benefit because other people are making money off of them.
Not me no, but my wife is, my sister, and my brother are all in the health care field. None get the flu shot or recommend getting it. They are around this stuff every day. They see the direct results or lack there of, of getting the shots vs not. They know the little it actually does for the average person, and don't believe it is worth it.
Here is an excerpts from the CDC webs site.
"During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that little or no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed"
"even during years when the flu vaccine match is good, the benefits of flu vaccination will vary, depending on various factors like the characteristics of the person being vaccinated, what influenza viruses are circulating that season and even, potentially, which type of flu vaccine was used."
Like I said for someone like you, or elderly, or those with other sicknesses yes it is probably worth it. That is if they guess right. But for the average health, younger people, probably not.
I would like to see numbers over the last 50-70 years. Its been what 10-15 years since they have been heavily pushing the flu vaccine for the masses. If it was effective you should see the numbers drop significantly from the previous decades. If anything is seems like the flu season is lasting longer, starting soon and becoming more severe.
To me, its simple, we are individuals,each with our own strengths and characteristics, young, old, male,female,certain age, enviroment etc.
Variations are bound to happen even if they nail a particular vaccine amongst individuals.
I remember Robert Vaughn, Vince Vaughns father saying he'd never gotten a common cold.
Not sure that was true at the time, but that alone is such a claim to point out our variations of contracting diseases.
Investing in something that goes to waste I believe contributes to the hype, to keep the perpetual recreation of such vaccines, because at some points, at some times, for some people, and as others have pounted out here, the flu can be very deadly, that some peoples luves are saved through prevention alone.
At what price we pay? Who partakes?
It is a market, by demand, it is being advertised, but it also works with some situations between life and death.
Some years there may not be a large benefit from getting a flu shot for individuals. For some people though even a LITTLE benefit may save their life. The key is to keep priming the immunity pump so that WHEN you do get exposed to a wild influenza virus, you're immune pump is primed so it can respond rapidly and keep you from getting severely ill. IF people work in a hospital or nursing home setting, most employers require that they get a flu shot. The truth is that people who work in clinical settings with sick people all day long often are hyper-immunized from natural exposure over time. People who do not get immunized though potentially endanger the people around them by becoming a naive host who can amplify the virus.
When I was younger and used to see dozens of clients on a daily basis I NEVER got sick. Now I get every bug my kids or wife bring home. I didn't get flu shots regularly until probably my 50s, but that doesn't mean it was smart. I do think that I got almost continuous natural immunization from being married to an M.D. I've known otherwise healthy young people who have gotten influenza and ended up with a viral myocarditis. One died. One nearly died and needed a pacemaker placed afterwards. Sure, the odds are if you're young and healthy that isn't going to happen. IF you're the 1 in a 1000 who it DOES happen to, was it worth the risk? If your kid is the one in a thousand who dies from influenza was it worth it to not spend the $10?
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Absolutely and there is antigenic drift within those different types of influenza viruses. With Corona viruses at least in animal strains, there has been very little antigenic drift so that the strain that worked in a vaccine 30 years ago still works today in many cases. That is NOT true for most influenza viruses. On the other hand, IF you keep up your influenza immunizations there is at least some chance that your immune system will have some memory of a similar vaccinal strain that hopefully was close enough to the new strain of wild virus to offer you some protection. Maybe all it does is decreases the severity of your disease or the number of days that you shed the virus, but it helps.
meanwhile the NY Times reports that there are almost 10,000 confirmed cases worldwide and at least 213 deaths from the Corona virus epidemic. That means that a little over 1 out of 50 people who get it are dying right now. It is spreading rapidly. The U.S. State department has urged no travel to China.
So, it appears that in two days, it will have doubled again.
I would of course love to see this pattern change for our betterment, but until it does, until we can be sure it isnt,or can't be transmitted with no symptoms, acting like it may is our best shot at it.
If you have any knowledge, how exacting is the screening?
I believe there are many obvious smaller motives that help achieve a more cloudy, larger motive. Deception, fear, money, stress are the obvious smaller motives. Power I would say is a larger motive, but I think there could be a bigger one that we just don’t know about yet. The precision in which certain events line up with each other is God-like.
I don't know what they're doing besides the forehead temperature screening. I don't know if they are using any type of antigen, PCR or IFA testing on quarantined subjects before they are symptomatic or not. It seems that it took several days for them to get definitive lab results back on the woman in Chicago. In known pathogenic corona viruses in animals, there are some fairly quick lab tests by diagnostic labs that can be done but normally there's transit time involved with samples, time to set up the tests and then read the results.
As one epidemiologist said a few days ago "the cat is out of the bag". I don't think they can stop it from spreading world wide. Let's just hope that it's pathogenicity peters out before it reaches the U.S. The numbers for China could be staggering when it is all said and done. Epidemiologically, it would be really interesting to know what percentage of people with known direct exposure actually get clinically ill. It would seem that it is going to almost have to run through most of their population in order for them to develop enough natural resistance for it to end there. I don't suppose we could run some controlled studies on Hawkeye fans.....
Well, shouldnt be a problem to get as many as needed, they love competition dont ya knowI don't know what they're doing besides the forehead temperature screening. I don't know if they are using any type of antigen, PCR or IFA testing on quarantined subjects before they are symptomatic or not. It seems that it took several days for them to get definitive lab results back on the woman in Chicago. In known pathogenic corona viruses in animals, there are some fairly quick lab tests by diagnostic labs that can be done but normally there's transit time involved with samples, time to set up the tests and then read the results.
As one epidemiologist said a few days ago "the cat is out of the bag". I don't think they can stop it from spreading world wide. Let's just hope that it's pathogenicity peters out before it reaches the U.S. The numbers for China could be staggering when it is all said and done. Epidemiologically, it would be really interesting to know what percentage of people with known direct exposure actually get clinically ill. It would seem that it is going to almost have to run through most of their population in order for them to develop enough natural resistance for it to end there. I don't suppose we could run some controlled studies on Hawkeye fans.....
Which one of the viruses turned out to be worth the fear mongering doled out?
I get your point but I’m right. Maybe this time it’s different but I’m just referring back to history.
1/50...with a vast majority being elderly is extremely similar to influenza A and B. Of course, any novel virus is scary but the probability is that any virus will fall into the middle of the curve. This one seems to be able spread quite easily but not kill at a high rate, especially healthy people. So a fairly normal, novel virus, that is likely to be quite successful, maybe even pandemic. MERS fell on the EXTREME end of the violence spectrum but couldn't spread, and SARS was also off the curve for violence and more communicable. This one has gravitated back to the mean.
says the guy believing the tv propaganda. I’ll be back to bump this thread and you’ll be offering your long-winded, word salads on the next CNN headline as if you’re an expert.
Go get a flu shot and drink another glass of city water.
Sigh, I’m talking about the ones that get coverage on TV, in our lifetime, genius .
were you alive for the fear mongering as the Black Plague spread?
Did you even read either of my posts? Lmao
The "ignore" function on this board is a wonderful feature. I highly recommend it. (This isn't directed to you, Solana.)
The average age of fatalities I think I read was 62. That wouldn't lead me to say that the vast majority of deaths have been the elderly. Obviously they are very much at risk but there are a large number of people under the age of 60 also getting ill. One story says that a 10 year old, a 28 year old and a 48 year old died from this virus. Obviously our government agencies are taking this deal very seriously though because they are taking steps they didn't with SARS. This virus has already far eclipsed the number of cases that SARS presented and it appears that we're really just at the beginning of this epidemic.
I believe that it is very prudent given the makeup of our population that we rapidly develop a vaccine for this. IF this one becomes endemic in the world's population like the flu virus, we'll have a never ending cycle of outbreaks and deaths in daycares and nursing homes in particular. Assuming we can develop an effective vaccine it actually might be able to be incorporated in to the influenza vaccination.
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I used to get a flu shot every year when my Mom was an RN and brought the doses home. It's been 10+ years since she retired and I haven't gotten a flu shot since. I also have not had the flu in 10+ years.
I'm not advocating against the flu shot, but a healthy person in the teens to 50s age range probably does not need it.
You're rolling the dice. Just because fatalities in unvaccinated young humans isn't common doesn't mean that you won't be the 1 out of a 100 who croaks from it. If you commonly come in contact with others who are more at risk from influenza you also increase their risk. I did the same thing for years and eventually it caught up with me. Took me a month to feel decent. I think I was in my early 40s when that one hit.
I agree a vaccine should be expedited if only to practice to process in case of a society killer but my actual worry is the "fear" of this will cause so much disruption in trade, it was cause so many people to lose money that we will be a little slower in acting on a really big one. People are going to look back at this and say, "this was no worse than the flu and we lost billions", instead of.... "we still have a lot to work on to make sure a worse virus doesn't wreck society". The 1918 virus wrecked society because healthy people couldn't work, were dying, children didn't have parents, and all the health care employees were dead. This is causing a disruption because of the quarantine..which is great but we are likely going to take the wrong message from this situation.
The epidemiological history of this thing when it is all said and done is going to be an interesting story. The sheer mass of humanity over there coupled with amazing crowding in public places. necessitated them doing something to limit exposures and slow the spread down. Their health care systems were totally overwhelmed.
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