Confirmed: Ash is back next year

[RU4Real]

Except they did budget it. According to the reports published by the Star-Ledger, in FY2017 (ending June 2018), the budget for institutional support was $11.2MM and the budget for the loan was $5.5 million. In FY2018 it is $10.2MM and $2.8MM, and in FY2019 it is forecasted at $9.3MM and $1.3MM.

Now if the actual for FY2017 was a total of $21MM, instead of the budgeted $16.7MM, then Hobbs missed his budget. And if he missed his budget by $4MM last year, that just makes it harder to ask for more money.

The onus is still on Hobbs to manage his budget.

They didn't miss by $4M. If they budgeted $11.2 for institutional support and $5.5 for the loan then they missed by $10M on the former and $9M on the latter, for a total of $19M, per the numbers that nj.com published yesterday ($21M institutional support + $14M loan).

Which is really all the point I'm trying to make - that they had a very substantial miss on the budget that required a very substantial bailout which, to your point, makes it pretty much impossible for Hobbs to ask for money for a coaching change.

 

[Wolv RU]

Institutional support and loans can't be forecasted several years out, with any degree of accuracy.

You can forecast expenses, but can't reliably forecast revenue. You don't know what ticket sales are going to be 2 and 3 years hence (we've spent an exhaustive amount of time on that, haven't we?) and you don't know, reliably, what donations are going to look like. So if institutional support and loans are the gap closers on the balance sheet, then it stands to reason those amounts aren't locked in until the end of the fiscal year.

Except they do indeed forecast it. The projected institutional support is also known.

Hobbs is going to have the luxury of $27 million from the Big Ten this very year! That is multiples more than any of his predecessors had to work with. And he still gets $7 million in institutional support (and all student fees). He has so much more to work with than any previous AD and for that Rutgers is maintaining course with it's presently worst P5 football program.

 

[RU4Real]

Except they do indeed forecast it. The projected institutional support is also known

You're not reading my posts thoroughly.

I said that it can't be forecasted with any degree of accuracy. You said, yourself, that they're not going to hit revenue numbers for ticket sales in '19. So if they have a revenue shortfall, then they're going to require additional institutional support above what was forecasted in order to balance the budget - just like last year.

 

[BoroKnight]

Some actually want Ash to stay. Remember what everyone said about Schiano after his first 3 years.

Funny, a friend of mine at the time wanted him gone, and my constant refrain was "I give him five years before I decide." Every fiber of my being wants to give Ash the same, but I just can't do it. Not only because the product is not improving even a little (although the defense has been better of late), but because the stakes are so much higher. This is big-boy football, and we don't have big-boy pants to put on.

 

[Wolv RU]

You're not reading my posts thoroughly.

I said that it can't be forecasted with any degree of accuracy. You said, yourself, that they're not going to hit revenue numbers for ticket sales in '19. So if they have a revenue shortfall, then they're going to require additional institutional support above what was forecasted in order to balance the budget - just like last year.

And that number is only going to get worse with Ash. If Hobbs wasn't able to manage more than a 50% increase in coaching salaries from when he started to get a quality coach that will not chip away more at this number, he needs to go.

As stated in my other post, he has so much more to work with ($27 million already in conf revenue) than Mulcahy could have ever dreamed of having.

 

[Upstream]

They didn't miss by $4M. If they budgeted $11.2 for institutional support and $5.5 for the loan then they missed by $10M on the former and $9M on the latter, for a total of $19M, per the numbers that nj.com published yesterday ($21M institutional support + $14M loan).

Which is really all the point I'm trying to make - that they had a very substantial miss on the budget that required a very substantial bailout which, to your point, makes it pretty much impossible for Hobbs to ask for money for a coaching change.

I misread the $21MM you referenced as the sum of institutional support and loan. If Hobbs missed by $19MM on a $100MM departmental budget, that's a huge miss.

But I think we're arguing the same point. Hobbs, like any executive, has to manage his budget. If he's already missing his budget, it makes it that much harder to ask for an even greater variance.

 

[RU4Real]

Incidentally, football ticket sales in 2016 (which I think are for the 2015 season) were $12.8MM.

Given the decline in overall attendance in subsequent seasons along with the significant decline of the season ticket base, there's absolutely no way they hit their upcoming revenue projections.

Unless, of course, they start charging season ticket holders a $5k seat fee and $200 per game.

 

[Caliknight]

It is not $10MM. It is $2MM per year for 5 years. And that money is already in the budget, since it is what we pay Ash even if he stays. Hobbs doesn't need to find that money. The money that Ash has to find is the money he will pay the new coach.

So, like $15MM.

 

[RutgersROB]

That's a false narrative. The extension was built into his contract. That's a bit different than offering a new contract to extend the original contract, isn't it?
Putting the automatic extension in there for NCAA sanctions knowing full well what may have been coming down the pike was not the smartest thing to do in hindsight, but as others have pointed out, this is a fairly common clause. Without knowing the details of the negotiation, I am not going to get that upset about it.
Even so, if there were two years left on his contract, not sure that the $5 million difference would make a difference. Hobbs seems committed to the idea that 4 years are needed for rebuilding, whether the fans agree with it or not. That upsets me more than the automatic extension, but I'll get over it.

Exactly, and if four years are needed for a rebuild and Ash gets that 4th year I’m sure he will be here for year 5

 

[RutgersROB]

Please point to where the "entire hiring process" was based on this.

They never met in person, the interview was over the phone

 

[Upstream]

So, like $15MM.

I don't know what it is for the new coach. But the point is that Hobbs doesn't have to find a lump sum $10MM this year.

 

[Caliknight]

How much do you think a competent staff and coach would be, assuming a 5 year deal?

 

[Caliknight]

They never met in person, the interview was over the phone

That's 100% inaccurate.

 

[RutgersROB]

How do you know they didn't? Politi is often a tool but I would expect he has better sources on this than you do and wouldn't include that in his column without anything to back it up.

He has better sources? Who in the Rutgers AD would talk to Politi? Those writers have been bashing the program for years and the AD knows this, it was even brought up in Ash’s introductory press conference...Politi and NJdotcom made up the quotes and get by by saying an anonymous source and then passing it off as an “ official” statement all to rile up the fan base and get clicks...if it’s an official statement put a name to it!

 

[RU4Real]

Who in the Rutgers AD would talk to Politi?

Oh, I know exactly who.

I'm not gonna post it on the board, but yeah... I can pretty much guarantee who it was.

 

[RutgersROB]

That's 100% inaccurate.

I’m sure before they signed the actual contract they met in person but here you go, and by that time Id bet he was already offered the job




https://www.app.com/story/sports/co...ired-rutgers-football-coach-2m-deal/76882874/

Hobbs said he interviewed six candidates by phone. He declined to name any, though Gannett New Jersey has confirmed that mutual interest existed between Rutgers and former Miami coach Al Golden, a Colts Neck native, as well as Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi.

Ash reportedly pulled out of consideration as one of two finalists to fill the vacancy at Syracuse.

"In 25 years in higher education, he's the single best interview I've had with any individual," said Hobbs, the dean emeritus at Seton Hall Law School.

"And I say that not because it was a polish or like an interview technique. He is the person that came to this with the most knowledge of Rutgers and where we are, with a plan in his head for how we were going to attack this and what we were going to do."

Ash, who emerged as a leading candidate last Tuesday, did his first two interviews by phone and then met with Hobbs off campus.

 

[RutgersROB]

Oh, I know exactly who.

I'm not gonna post it on the board, but yeah... I can pretty much guarantee who it was.

Well then that person should be fired

 

[Wolv RU]

Oh, I know exactly who.

I'm not gonna post it on the board, but yeah... I can pretty much guarantee who it was.

Noticeably absent from your comment is any implication that the source might be incorrect...

 

[Wolv RU]

"And I say that not because it was a polish or like an interview technique. He is the person that came to this with the most knowledge of Rutgers and where we are, with a plan in his head for how we were going to attack this and what we were going to do."

.

Looking back on this quoted portion it seems likely that Ash was the candidate that stood out by explaining to Hobbs how bad Rutgers was, how things would definitely get worse, and how big of a job it would be to fix it.

 

[Caliknight]

I’m sure before they signed the actual contract they met in person but here you go, and by that time Id bet he was already offered the job




https://www.app.com/story/sports/co...ired-rutgers-football-coach-2m-deal/76882874/

Hobbs said he interviewed six candidates by phone. He declined to name any, though Gannett New Jersey has confirmed that mutual interest existed between Rutgers and former Miami coach Al Golden, a Colts Neck native, as well as Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi.

Ash reportedly pulled out of consideration as one of two finalists to fill the vacancy at Syracuse.

"In 25 years in higher education, he's the single best interview I've had with any individual," said Hobbs, the dean emeritus at Seton Hall Law School.

"And I say that not because it was a polish or like an interview technique. He is the person that came to this with the most knowledge of Rutgers and where we are, with a plan in his head for how we were going to attack this and what we were going to do."

Ash, who emerged as a leading candidate last Tuesday, did his first two interviews by phone and then met with Hobbs off campus.

Initial interviews happening over the phone isn't unusual. Hobbs may have liked him a lot based off of that interview, but he most certainly met him in person before he was offered the job. The last sentence in your link says it all. I can tell you where they met.

 

[RU#1fan]

What exactly is Hobbs' "body of work"?

If Ash is not fired, he'll have hired a god awful football coach who oversaw 3 B1G wins in 3 years and losses to EMU, Buffalo and Kansas.

Surely no one will be foolish to argue Hobbs is a yuge fundraiser- considering he couldn't raise money to replace Ash.

So what do we have...Pickiell, for whom the jury is still out? Is that someone another AD could not have hired? And finally firing the god awful men's soccer coach who was making 143k a year? Wow big spender!

Football drives the bus. Rutgers is in the Big Ten, not the Big East. Piscataway is not South Orange. This is the big time. This is not hiring law professors. This is an athletic department funded by a football program, the very first one, who generates revenue based on people showing up 7 times a year who for the better part of the 21st century had some expectation of seeing something worthwhile.

When you're at a Big Ten school and you hire someone like Ash and refuse to fire them, you have failed as an AD, period, end of story.

This.
Most logical fans understand this.
Some tools like that clown in Caliphony support Hobbs .....unreal.

 

[Caliknight]

This.
Most logical fans understand this.
Some tools like that clown in Caliphony support Hobbs .....unreal.

Settle down Phil Knight. You're overly emotional. Are you on your period?

 

[RU4Real]

Noticeably absent from your comment is any implication that the source might be incorrect...

Hmm. I guess because I don't see him (or her!) being wrong. I mean, if the individual in question is who I believe it to be, then no. Definitely not wrong.

 

[Knightmoves]

Correct. Not joining BE, twice, killed our hoops program. He also brought us Littlepage and Shea, and kicked Frank Burns to the curb.

Fred didn’t bring Shea to Rutgers, Francis Lawrence did. Fred just gathered the resumes and conducted interviews.

Lawrence set the hiring criteria for the new HC. Fred just followed Lawrence’s orders. Lawrence was heavily involved in the Kevin Bannon hiring as well

 

[Wolv RU]

Hmm. I guess because I don't see him (or her!) being wrong. I mean, if the individual in question is who I believe it to be, then no. Definitely not wrong.

Well... that's unfortunate. Happy Thanksgiving Rutgers fans I guess.

 

[RU4Real]

Well... that's unfortunate. Happy Thanksgiving Rutgers fans I guess.

If I'm being honest, I would have to admit to suffering the Five Stages of Being a Rutgers Fan. Here in Stage 5, I've come to accept that we're just not in the right place to make a coaching change, right now.

This isn't the time for Bargaining. We wouldn't be well-served by firing Ash and (probably) overpaying for someone who is, by reputation, a bargain - and that's genuinely our only option right now, in my opinion.

Here's some opportunistic math.

Barchi's mandate is that the athletic department be subsidy-free by the time we get a full B1G share.

Last year the total of all subsidies (not including student fees, which is an "acceptable" revenue stream) was, at most, $35 million. So if we use that as sort of a "worst case scenario" we'll have $15MM+ in potential coach money by the time Ash's contract expires - without considering the positive revenue bounce due to increased attendance.

This tells me that, if we're thinking strategically, in a couple of years - three at the most - a few specific sets of circumstances will align. First, Ash will be put paid. Second, Barchi will be gone. Third, we'll have an extra $15 million a year to use toward hiring whoever the hell we want.

That's sort of the "positive spin". It's all I got.

 

[Knight Shift]

If I'm being honest, I would have to admit to suffering the Five Stages of Being a Rutgers Fan. Here in Stage 5, I've come to accept that we're just not in the right place to make a coaching change, right now.

This isn't the time for Bargaining. We wouldn't be well-served by firing Ash and (probably) overpaying for someone who is, by reputation, a bargain - and that's genuinely our only option right now, in my opinion.

Here's some opportunistic math.

Barchi's mandate is that the athletic department be subsidy-free by the time we get a full B1G share.

Last year the total of all subsidies (not including student fees, which is an "acceptable" revenue stream) was, at most, $35 million. So if we use that as sort of a "worst case scenario" we'll have $15MM+ in potential coach money by the time Ash's contract expires - without considering the positive revenue bounce due to increased attendance.

This tells me that, if we're thinking strategically, in a couple of years - three at the most - a few specific sets of circumstances will align. First, Ash will be put paid. Second, Barchi will be gone. Third, we'll have an extra $15 million a year to use toward hiring whoever the hell we want.

That's sort of the "positive spin". It's all I got.

In first: this means we could get Schiano if we have $15 million to spend.

 

[Wolv RU]

If I'm being honest, I would have to admit to suffering the Five Stages of Being a Rutgers Fan. Here in Stage 5, I've come to accept that we're just not in the right place to make a coaching change, right now.

This isn't the time for Bargaining. We wouldn't be well-served by firing Ash and (probably) overpaying for someone who is, by reputation, a bargain - and that's genuinely our only option right now, in my opinion.

Here's some opportunistic math.

Barchi's mandate is that the athletic department be subsidy-free by the time we get a full B1G share.

Last year the total of all subsidies (not including student fees, which is an "acceptable" revenue stream) was, at most, $35 million. So if we use that as sort of a "worst case scenario" we'll have $15MM+ in potential coach money by the time Ash's contract expires - without considering the positive revenue bounce due to increased attendance.

This tells me that, if we're thinking strategically, in a couple of years - three at the most - a few specific sets of circumstances will align. First, Ash will be put paid. Second, Barchi will be gone. Third, we'll have an extra $15 million a year to use toward hiring whoever the hell we want.

That's sort of the "positive spin". It's all I got.

Understood. I would just note that the $35 million is from FY 2017, which means it is from the 2016 football season already. So I don't believe it was from last year -- it's just the last year that information was made available. Basically it was the cost of getting rid of Flood, Herman, and Jordan all at once, along with conducting an NCAA investigation, and the typical Rutgers budget shortfall.

I get your point. I don't agree (and maybe that puts me in a different stage) that it was/is hopeless when you look at what was projected and what Hobbs has to work with. I also no longer think Hobbs is the right guy (assuming he's going to hang on to Ash).

Finally, like many others they're going to lose out on a large % of the funds my immediate family was providing on an annual basis. Hard to not ask yourself why bother at this point when they're so careless with our money to begin with.

 

[Knightmoves]

If I'm being honest, I would have to admit to suffering the Five Stages of Being a Rutgers Fan. Here in Stage 5, I've come to accept that we're just not in the right place to make a coaching change, right now.

This isn't the time for Bargaining. We wouldn't be well-served by firing Ash and (probably) overpaying for someone who is, by reputation, a bargain - and that's genuinely our only option right now, in my opinion.

Here's some opportunistic math.

Barchi's mandate is that the athletic department be subsidy-free by the time we get a full B1G share.

Last year the total of all subsidies (not including student fees, which is an "acceptable" revenue stream) was, at most, $35 million. So if we use that as sort of a "worst case scenario" we'll have $15MM+ in potential coach money by the time Ash's contract expires - without considering the positive revenue bounce due to increased attendance.

This tells me that, if we're thinking strategically, in a couple of years - three at the most - a few specific sets of circumstances will align. First, Ash will be put paid. Second, Barchi will be gone. Third, we'll have an extra $15 million a year to use toward hiring whoever the hell we want.

That's sort of the "positive spin". It's all I got.

Sounds good. But how many patrons are buying season tickets for the next few years of the Ash regime? Is cost reduction the only major objective of RU? What about the game results for the FB program during that time period? How does that align with revenue goals?

Going ultra cheap with poor performance is a bad business plan for any organization. Customers generally vote with their check books and don’t support this type of organization.

We make the Tampa Bay Rays organization look like role models of success. And they have far more success than we do, in spite of being considered cheap skates in their league.

 

[RU4Real]

Sounds good. But how many patrons are buying season tickets for the next few years of the Ash regime? Is cost reduction the only major objective of RU? What about the game results for the FB program during that time period? How does that align with revenue goals?

Going ultra cheap with poor performance is a bad business plan for any organization. Customers generally vote with their check books.

We make the Tampa Bay Rays organization look like role models of success. And they have far more success than we do.

I dunno... I think I might renew. There's a twisted part of me who wants to see how bad this can really get, while I'm sitting all alone in the Yellow lot at 7:00 on a Saturday morning.

 

[bac2therac]

no one will be around in two years...it will be an endless cycle...I saw this in hoops which still has not recovered although Pike has it on the upswing, it can and will happen for football which involves a ton of more money and donations

 

[BlockR]

Rutgers accepts this as the norm.it wants the fan base to do the same.
No thanks.

 

[RU4Real]

Rutgers accepts this as the norm.it wants the fan base to do the same.
No thanks.

So you'll be leaving, then?

I'd like to say you'll be missed.

 

[Knightmoves]

Imo as soon as Roy announces that Ash is returning there will be a groundswell of negativity coming from the season ticketholder fan base. And don’t season ticket renewals go out not long after the New Year?

Why renew more than 1 season ticket when the stadium will look like a ghost town the next few years and you can get back in if things change?

And why continue to invite your friends to join you to see RU FB when it may threaten the friendship that you have built over the years?

 

[Knight Shift]

Imo as soon as Roy announces that Ash is returning there will be a groundswell of negativity coming from the season ticketholder fan base. And don’t season ticket renewals go out not long after the New Year?

Why renew more than 1 season ticket when the stadium will look like a ghost town the next few years and you can get back in if things change?

And why continue to invite your friends to join you to see RU FB when it may threaten the friendship that you have built over the years?

What kind of friends do you have?
The ones I invite to go to the game (mostly alums)- we go, have a nice time and they thank me for inviting them to the game.

 

[RU4Real]

What kind of friends do you have?
The ones I invite to go to the game (mostly alums)- we go, have a nice time and they thank me for inviting them to the game.

You in for next year?

 

[Knightmoves]

What kind of friends do you have?
The ones I invite to go to the game (mostly alums)- we go, have a nice time and they thank me for inviting them to the game.

I am excluding Family members and work subordinates when talking about friends who are happy to be invited to an RU FB game.

Many friends of season ticket holders refuse to go and will even act offended if invited to RU FB after past experiences.

 

[Knight Shift]

You in for next year?

Yeah. 4 Tickets, and we struggled this year to find 2 others to go to most games. My oldest will be off to college, and unless it is Rutgers (unlikely), he will not join us for any games. Our boys are down to 2 games per year, as they smartened up more than their parents and told us they did not enjoy the games. We enjoy our seat neighbors. We are trying to get into the tailgating scene. We will have to link up at a tailgate or two next year. Will also have to do the same with @RUScrew85 and @mildone and @RU848789 .

Maybe all the years in fire and emergency service makes it easier for me to witness disasters and not flinch or get too emotionally involved. Or the morbid curiosity to see how bad it will really get.

Like the few others here, I have been very mildly encouraged by the purported progress shown by the defense the last several games. However, there seems to be more to be concerned about next year than to be optimistic about.

 

[Knight Shift]

I am excluding Family members and work subordinates when talking about friends who are happy to be invited to an RU FB game.

Many friends of season ticket holders refuse to go and will even act offended if invited to RU FB after past experiences.

That's unfortunate. Have had a lot of laughs with friends at and after games this year and last. But it was much harder this year to find takers. Yup, the current situation sucks, but I can't change it, and we are at a stage where we enjoy the ride to Piscataway 6-7 Saturdays in the Fall, even when the end result sucks. Can it get any worse than this year?

 

[RU4Real]

Yeah. 4 Tickets, and we struggled this year to find 2 others to go to most games. My oldest will be off to college, and unless it is Rutgers (unlikely), he will not join us for any games. Our boys are down to 2 games per year, as they smartened up more than their parents and told us they did not enjoy the games. We enjoy our seat neighbors. We are trying to get into the tailgating scene. We will have to link up at a tailgate or two next year. Will also have to do the same with @RUScrew85 and @mildone and @RU848789 .

Maybe all the years in fire and emergency service makes it easier for me to witness disasters and not flinch or get too emotionally involved. Or the morbid curiosity to see how bad it will really get.

Like the few others here, I have been very mildly encouraged by the purported progress shown by the defense the last several games. However, there seems to be more to be concerned about next year than to be optimistic about.

I'm open to opening up the tailgate. Dad and I downsized from the @MrsScrew orgy a couple years back because, well, Dad just wasn't into the whole "150 of my closest friends" thing. But back when it was a dozen or so, it was a solid good time. I'm making a concerted effort to get the Screws back to Yellow from Blue. Not sure how successful I'll be, but if we can make it happen, it's a great experience. Not as good as "Hey, I brought you girls from the bathroom", but... that's not an everyday thing.