Maybe I'm trying so hard not to be a homer that I've become biased in the other direction but l I think Miles is almost a lock for 1st team and CC is the one trying to play her way on.
Fwiw if she keeps playing at the level she is I think she'll make it.
First team
G. Olivia Miles (lock)
G. Kelsey Mitchell (should be a lock)
Open
F. Breanna Stewart (not really sure who the other forward would be)
F. A'ja Wilson (lock)
I'm not sure what the WNBA's rules are about voting and if that open spot is mandated to be a Guard/Forward or if it's up to voter discretion.
But if Guards are eligible I think it will come down to her or Paige.
The don't seem to be held to position specific selections:
In 2024 CC was the only G to make it on the 1st team
In 2023 no guards made the 1st team
I think the 1st team as of now would be:
Aja (1st in scoring, 3rd in rebounding, defensive force)
Miles (9th in scoring, 6th in scoring, best player on best team)
KM (2nd in scoring, 4th in 3PT FG%, on most popular team)
CC (4th in scoring, T1st in assists, most popular player in league)
Like you I have that 5th spot open.
Plum has missed a lot of games but is 3rd in scoring
Stewie is Stewie...21.3, 8.4, 3.2...47 FG%
Shepard is at 14.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 5.2 APG shooting 59% from field.
Paige is at 20.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.8 APG, 51% FG, 39% 3FG