I agree w/you if we could have gotten the ball to him more we would be talking about a different outcome. OFC
Caution: Dont overexpect next year.....
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I agree w/you if we could have gotten the ball to him more we would be talking about a different outcome. OFC
I have hopes for next year, but do admit they are not as high. On the positive side, we have four guys back with some experience and 4 highly touted freshman. On the scary side, we are expecting these freshman to gel and be dominant in year one, and are relying on two guys in the post that have not shown the ability to stay on the court due to foul issues and health. My guess would be a 3 seed. But it's just an opinion and a hope, and is really irrelevant to how they will be. Time will tell, but there are a lot of moving parts which need to come together.
Duval was an elite defender, and would have been incredibly disruptive at the top of the zone. In fact, he was just that several times. But Allen was a problem when he wasn't the top of the zone. When he was off to one side on the perimeter, the zone was less effective.
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He and Bags were better in the zone than in M2M, but neither were good. The zone effectively hid them, but it weakened the effectiveness of the other players.
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We had to make the move for team success. But K left it so late in the season that fixing the M2M became impossible that late. The zone, flawed though it was, was the only option.
Yes, but.
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Marvin didn't always do enough to get open in optimal spots. Teams had great success vs him by simply pushing him away from the basket. All too often he, and Carter, were content to simply stand in one space and waive their hands calling for the ball. Frequently, they weren't good position to receive the ball, much less make an effective move.
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Yes, Bags, and Carter, needed more opportunities to shoot the ball. But they didn't work hard enough to get open.
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Coaching was mostly to blame for this, IMO. We should've been running PnR with Duval and both these guys that would have been unstoppable.
And, as we've said, the lack of PROVEN perimeter shooting, and PROVEN rim defense are concerning. Maybe we'll be fine in those areas. But they are reasons to try to temper expectations.
This I agree with. Our #1 play all year should have been Duval running the PnR with either Bagley or Carter. Put Grayson on 1 wing and Gary on the other, nobody could stop that. That is literally all we ran in the 2nd half of the UNC game in Cameron, and we destroyed them.
I'm sure K had a reason for not always using this, but still, we should have seen this a lot more.
The Duval PnR would also have been my choice as the play we ran at the end of the Kansas game, call a timeout, draw the play up, and were in the final four.
Here you go again. What part do I misquote? You are proving my point. The folks that think this upcoming team is a sweet 16 team are called downers, and told it's unfair to put a ceiling for the tournament. Yet it's ok for others to be excited and suggest the team can win it all.
You are quick on the draw to shoot down any perceived criticism. Does it make one less of a fan to suggest a limit on the teams success?
Where have I said K couldn't coach, or said the team is going to be horrible?
Bottom line is I think we will be good, just not as good as we want. Then again, I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time, nor will it be the last.
This should have been the play:
Run the weave for a few secs, then have one of Bags and Carter come up to set the pick, while the other drifted off to the perimeter along the baseline, perpendicular to the basket. Let the big set the pick while TD drives to the basket. The big on the baseline then runs toward the basket. Now, there should be 1 defender covering TD and a big as they converge on the basket. With our third big collapsing behind for rebounding purposes. With the two wings in shooting position on the perimeter.
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The only, and I mean ONLY way to stop this is for one or both of the wing defenders to slouch off to help in the paint, leaving their defensive assignment wide open. Given our personnel this past year, the offensive tactic I have laid out is nigh on unstoppable. If our wings miss a bunch of shots, we lose. Or if an elite rim protector is able to disrupt finishes at the rim.
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But that would have maximized 4 of our 5 players on the court.
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Odd man out? Grayson Allen. He would have been reduced to a spot up shooter.
Which is why we never ran it. It would have been bad for Allen, and K won't hang a favorite Senior out to dry like that. K let what was good for the team be hijacked by his desire to prop up a favored player.
Good post.
I would distinguish between constructive criticism and sheer negativity, though. People are rarely blasted for criticizing the team here unless they are emotionally compromised and over-the-top, beating a dead horse, or illogically arguing speculation or/and unfalsifiable hypotheticals as fact.
It's a slippery slope, though, and respectful debate can spiral into incivility if we don't watch ourselves. Thanks for the reminder.
This, for example, is insulting and ignorant. To assume K's motives like this is the original attack, and it deserves nothing less in reply.
Love this thread. While I’m very excited to see the boys next year, I’m also not expecting more than what the team this year did. It’s very hard for any freshman to learn the Duke system (specifically defense), let alone 4 of them. Not to say it’s impossible because the 2015 guys did with excellent leadership. But it’s very difficult. Let’s just enjoy the 1 year we’ll have w them.
Okay, so, just to step it up a bit, let's have some fun while we're all bitching. You guys saying we don't get past the sweet 16 next year, I've got 250 bucks says we do. Each willing to take the bet, we'll send the money to dukiejay to hold and he sends the total to the winner. My only stipulation would be if one of our top 3 received a season ending injury. Our big Dogs stay healthy , we're going at LEAST Elite Eight, probably FF.
I'm tempted to take the bet Show. I hate betting against my boys though, and if I did take the bet and won, it would be still a lose/lose.
Yeah I thought the writer of the Chronicle piece Ben Leonard was pretty much spot-on in his projections.He took a realistic approach from my perspective.
OFC
Haha ok dude. I’m again specifically saying i hate the cliche of labeling ANY TEAM “this team has a ncaa tournament ceiling of X, Y or Z.” That’s it.
I get you like to argue for the sake of arguing. I get you like to argue certain people and agree with others regardless of what they’re saying. I get you like to put words in other people’s mouths to try and make yourself look better.
For the millionth time- everyone is free to criticize the team. Anyone. I think Patrick and JWill are making some excellent points above. There were quite a few things i would have done differently as well. Find more ways to get Marvin the rock- Self did a much better job of double and triple teaming him so he couldn’t get looks. Defensively all year i criticized our inability to limit offensive rebounds. That’s coaching. Put your guys in the right place, how many times did we give up critical offensive boards after playing great defense for 25+ seconds. That absolutely killed us against KU. The last play of the game, i am ok putting it in Grayson’s hands, but i would have tried to run a better play with Marvin more involved. I’m ok suggesting Duval have the ball there in the PnR with Marvin too- Duval was having a great game. Many coaching changes i think could have put us in a better position, oh well. I’ve openly said criticisms of in game strategies are more than ok. I openly said last years team had one of the lowest collective basketball IQs i can remember. Including Grayson. That’s at the end of the day what a message board is about. I try and stay away from the cliches that to me mean nothing.
As for next year. My contention is, I’d rather go into the year with a roster that has a chance to win it all and win the ACC. We will have that chance with the roster we have. It doesn’t guarantee us anything. But we will have a chance. There are a number of years in the last 10 or so when we didn’t- so that’s a nice change.
But this is one of those unprovable things. Running a pick and roll based O would have been great for the team, very good for Duval and Bags individually, pretty good for Trent and Carter individually, and not at all good for Allen individually. Allen's role would have been incredibly diminished by a switch to such an offense. He'd have tried to be the ball handler in that situation, but he could only go one way and was miserable at passing to the wing. Not that it would have mattered, because whoever was guarding TD on the wing would have collapsed into the paint, leaving TD wide open to shoot, because who is scared of that? No one. That extra wing defender would have effectively halted the effectiveness of the PnR. PnR would ONLY have worked with TD as the ball handler (or only with GA in a greatly reduced capacity when AOC was in for TD).
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So, most of the team would have been at least neutral about such an offense. The only person really negatively impacted would be Allen, and it is likely his numbers would have been greatly impacted in a negative way. He'd have gone from the 2nd or 3rd option to the 4th or 5th option. And the drop off from 3rd to 4th would have been huge. 1st and 2nd options (bags and Carter) would have been fairly close in usage. 3rd would have been TD, but noticeably behind the top 2. The distance in usage between 3rd and 4th (which would be almost identical in usage to 5th) would have been more than the distance between 2nd and 3rd.
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Thus, my post that K didn't implement such a strategy is a reasonably deduced belief. It may, or may not, be factual
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But it gets dismissed because I "lack proof" or supporting evidence. Well, I suspect the only proof that people here would accept would be in the form of K stating unequivocally that "Duke didn't use the PnR solely because it negatively impacted Grayson." Which K will never do. If such a statement, or unassailable proof of such a statement, is the only acceptable proof of the action, I can never prove my opinion.
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Since this isn't a court of law, I defy anyone to prove that protecting Allen IS NOT the reason we never went to PnR. How hard is it to disprove something? All we can do is fans is to watch the games, and make reasonable assumptions based on what we see along with what we know about past actions and behaviors. And try to ignore preconceived beliefs out of the process. K has a history of placing a lot of responsibility in the hands of upperclassmen. He further has a habit of giving SGs (and wings in general) a leading role in the offense. And when the upperclassmen and SGs/wings are capable, this is great. But K tends to treat the Tyler Thornton's of the world as being worthy of the same role as the Quinn Cook's. Or of letting SGs like Allen have the same leadership as JJ or Seth Curry. In other words, he doesn't tailor the playing style and tactics to his talent as much as he should.
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I don't think there was anything nefarious about K's decisions regarding Allen. Allen exhibits many of the characteristics that K has long favored. And he's a senior in an era when kids barely unpack their bags in college. K just thought that Allen would step up, as he seems to think ALL seniors will step up. K's inability to realize, or unwillingness to accept, that Allen wouldn't or couldn't step up lead to some disastrous strategic and tactical decisions. Given all this, I feel that my stated opinion that K didn't implement a seemingly obvious strategy because of 1 player is, at least, well supported. It may not be correct. We'll never know, one way or the other. But my post was better that "Nuh uh." Which doesn't add a lot to the discussion.
From the games you’ve seen? Zion doesn’t have a three. You just be thinking of Reddish. He is hit and miss. That write up was right on the money.
This board has its cliques, no doubt, as you have yours too. So let's not even go there please. There's a lot more people on here I get along with than not.
Let's just see how this team does. They may do better than I'm expecting. I really hope so.
This post has been edited and hopefully approved by jwill.
Well I've watched him twice in person and both times he was busting threes in warm-ups and hit a couple in game so...
No, your post gets dismissed b/c you assumed unprofessional, idiotic motives on K's part.
Glad it gave you a laugh ol buddy. You could stand to be a happier camper, as most of this board would agree.
OFClol doesn't mean lots of love? Just when I thought Ol Datt was softening up in his old age. Oh well.Glad it gave you a laugh ol buddy. You could stand to be a happier camper, as most of this board would agree.
IMO, next years freshman are ahead of this past seasons.
All four communicate and are ready for the first practice. Barrett is ready to lead and has that instinct to take over a game. Tre is a true passer looking to get others involved. Reddish imo, will turn it up once he hits college. I just think he believes he has nothing left to prove at the high school level and the other three will make him hustle. Zion is just well a freak of nature.
If you look at it, Bolden even though a Junior it’s his time to shine with the freshman. If he really wants the league he will have one of his best shots as a leader on next seasons team. Then you throw in the rest of the players and this team will do fine.
All four communicate and are ready for the first practice. Barrett is ready to lead and has that instinct to take over a game. Tre is a true passer looking to get others involved. Reddish imo, will turn it up once he hits college. I just think he believes he has nothing left to prove at the high school level and the other three will make him hustle. Zion is just well a freak of nature.
If you look at it, Bolden even though a Junior it’s his time to shine with the freshman. If he really wants the league he will have one of his best shots as a leader on next seasons team. Then you throw in the rest of the players and this team will do fine.
One thing we can expect next year?
Blown assists. Blown assists everywhere.
Blown assists. Blown assists everywhere.
Anyyyyyway...
Speaking only for myself, I need to have a more realistic perspective of the length and toughness of a full season while watching our team play in November and December.
Speaking only for myself, I need to have a more realistic perspective of the length and toughness of a full season while watching our team play in November and December.
I said part of the fun is the guessing now, and reevaluation mid-year. I'm not dumb enough to take that "bet".
I may be wrong but I think we are better next year. We should be better on defense and our point guard position will be more stable and I expect Jones to be the leader on the court.
Dude, just ignore Dattier. It's easy to talk ish on a board, but he's the most unstable, worthless poster I've ever seen. Perhaps it's an intentional act (I hope it is), as anyone that needs a true mental break from a message board probably needs support in their personal life (again if it's not an act).
The board is very "clicky" (yes JWill I intentionally did that). It seems inviting, but the moment you play devils advocate or state an unpopular view, you get lit up like a damn Christmas tree. The worst part is there are actual mods that seem incite, encourage, and even pile on (as long as it's not personal attacks - I'll give credit there). It gets old, but I find myself lurking and even posting because I love the Duke program and really enjoy posting back and forth with some of y'all here. You seem like genuinely good people. I've just learned not to say too much anymore. Heck, I stated that VERY EARLY, I see this team as a S16 team, and of course experts are saying I'm (or we're) crazy (without any sort of info to support it, however).
All of that said, GTHC and ***.
As I've said before there are so many unknowns for this team. Final Four potential is there; if our returning guys make leaps and the freshman can be consistent and healthy. Bolden is perfectly positioned for a breakout year if he can stay healthy. Outside shooting is a concern but we do have AOC and hopefully Cam. But I've seen us ranked as high as one or two and that seems high to me. I'd rather see this young team as an underdog that makes a deep run. I'd also like to see AOC average 10 a game off the bench. Because we know Jack and Javin can provide rebounding and defense.
This board has cliques? Dang I want to join one lol.
I never go off of paper predictions or high school games. I wait until the ball roles out for these boys against an actual college game. That said there is something different about this team
I never go off of paper predictions or high school games. I wait until the ball roles out for these boys against an actual college game. That said there is something different about this team
Shey, this board has it all. CLIQUES, division, arguing, arrogance, hell we even have a wrestling champ. DI is the happening place. Often imitated, but never intimidated. The Brotherhood don't have nothing on us.
It isn't unprofessional or idiotic on K's part. As I stated, K has shown, over and over, that he trusts his senior leaders. One of his main failings is his failure to realize, or even realizing far too late, that some senior leaders aren't worthy of that faith.
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In retrospect, running the PnR sets I described in my OP would have been the best thing for this team.
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But the strategy K employed from the start of the years WOULD have worked, and indeed SHOULD have worked, if Allen hadn't laid an egg this year. If Allen shoots 43% from 3, plays better M2M D, and TD is a little less TO prove, Duke is a 1 seed and playing Nova. If K had punished Bags until he performed better on D, Duke is cutting down the nets.
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And those are small improvements. I'm not saying Allen and Bags have to be lockdown defenders in M2M, just that they not be complete failure points. Just be mediocre on D, which isn't that much to ask for, IMO. And 43% from 3 for Allen is a reasonable request for a senior whose rep is that of a perimeter threat. Assuming reasonable shooting from GA, and mediocre D from Bags and Allen, TD's TO's would have been the difference between beating Nova and losing to Nova in the NCAAT title game.
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I think K just thought that Allen would step up, be clutch and make 3s and play solid D. That he'd do an impression of Nolan or Cook or Jon or Battier. Not the same levels, in some cases, but that Allen would make the plays we needed him to make to win at the level Duke wants to win at. Only, GA hadn't shown any proof of that. He'd been a mediocre 3pt shooter for 2 seasons, and a horrible defender for 3 seasons. K started the season using a strategy that was based on very reasonable expectations. As such, he didn't implement a strategy focusing on PnR because that strategy
1. Was less likely to be successful than one focusing on a good shooting GA being heavily featured.
2. Would have relegated Allen to a very decreased role relative to the prior couple of seasons.
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If Allen had made shots this year, K's strategy would have worked. Bags and Allen would have been our leaders as we probably win the ACC reg season and the ACCT, en route to a 1 seed and a date with Nova in the title game. Pre-season, featuring Allen and Bags was the smart strategy. But by January it was blindingly obvious that Allen wasn't that guy. But, as he's done many times since 92, K went ride or die with a senior player, refusing to realize or admit that the Senior just wasn't good enough to carry the team. Trying to paint my post as an attack on K is an incredibly specious argument.
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I've explained, in depth, my reasoning. All I've gotten back is "that is just wrong." Why. What evidence or observations do any of you have that I'm wrong. The PnR was obviously our optimal tactic by March, and it had been obvious for 1.5 months as of the start of the ACCT. What excuse does anyone have for why K didn't switch to it?
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