I did see that one. Think how many bad games he had to have to bring his season avg down to 37%.
Caution: Dont overexpect next year.....
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I did see that one. Think how many bad games he had to have to bring his season avg down to 37%.
Did I miss something along the way! Didn't Reddish win the 3 point shooting contest at the Mcdonalds all star game. So he must be a pretty good three point shooter. Alex can damn sure make 3 point shots, and I am sure RJ can be a threat there also. If I remember correctly Tyus wasn't supposed to be a good 3 point shooter, but he damn sure became one, & I think Tre can also become one. So I think we have enough shooting to win. I just hope we can play DEFENSE!!!!
OFC
OFC
Is there precedent for that? We say it after every bad game a OAD player has, but do we actually know it?
These quotes from the last 3-4 paragraphs stood out for me:
"Will this team have a chance to win a title? Yes. But Blue Devil fans should not go into the season thinking this is the year...
High expectations are a dangerous thing. They turn losses catastrophic, big wins expected and championships mildly exciting. It's one thing to hope for a championship, but another to expect it...
As a student, I wouldn’t chant “We Want Six” before a game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Verbalizing the implied only reinforces Duke fans’ absurdly high expectations.
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When you finally reach the pinnacle, lower expectations make it all the more sweet."
The writer goes from indicating we will not win the title to acknowledging we could... but not to expect it. For continuity, this reads like a drunk person trying to talk philosophically who ultimately ends up contradicting himself and making a completely different statement than he set out to.
But he gets on a roll there at the end. We could win it all. But 2015 was an anomaly and we shouldn't expect it just because it has happened before. Even if our high expectations are realized, it's not quite as enjoyable, and the losses are treated like catastrophes.
I also agree w/ the part where he mentions the apparent lack of balance in all the talent. We have a bunch of slashers.
"Will this team have a chance to win a title? Yes. But Blue Devil fans should not go into the season thinking this is the year...
High expectations are a dangerous thing. They turn losses catastrophic, big wins expected and championships mildly exciting. It's one thing to hope for a championship, but another to expect it...
As a student, I wouldn’t chant “We Want Six” before a game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Verbalizing the implied only reinforces Duke fans’ absurdly high expectations.
...
When you finally reach the pinnacle, lower expectations make it all the more sweet."
The writer goes from indicating we will not win the title to acknowledging we could... but not to expect it. For continuity, this reads like a drunk person trying to talk philosophically who ultimately ends up contradicting himself and making a completely different statement than he set out to.
But he gets on a roll there at the end. We could win it all. But 2015 was an anomaly and we shouldn't expect it just because it has happened before. Even if our high expectations are realized, it's not quite as enjoyable, and the losses are treated like catastrophes.
I also agree w/ the part where he mentions the apparent lack of balance in all the talent. We have a bunch of slashers.
He’s still a threat at 37%, especially when you consider his volume. I can’t put Trent in one category and Allen in another based on 3 percentage points.
Teams that play 2-3 zone get killed by threes. I've heard that on ESPN so it must be true.
Fun fact: Duke was 29th in the country in opp 3% and Syracuse was 22nd. We were good against the 3 in our zone. Our zone philosophy was driven by modern analytics. The best shots are layups and open threes, so our zone focused on taking those away and making teams make mid-range jumpers. Our losses (including to Kansas) had far more to do with our own 3 point shooting than our opponents.
And I think you're wrong about the matchups. We matched up better with Nova than any other team in the tournament. They posed matchup problems for us, but we posed significant matchup problems for them as well. If we had executed against them the same way we did against Kansas it wouldn't have mattered, but when you look at everything that went wrong against Kansas (horrid 3pt shooting, Bagley taking something like 4 shots over the last 20 minutes, Wendell fouling out) and how close we were to beating them anyway, you see how good this team was.
Marvin only getting 4 shots in the last 20 min reminded me of Elton getting far fewer touches then he should have in the ‘99 title game. Granted a lot of that has to do with your opponent taking that away and making you beat them in a different way. We clearly didn’t. Either time but in both games, we came up a bucket short. So they’re extra painful.
The way Nova shot vs KU, no one was beating them. No one was beating Arizona when they shot their brains out in 2011. But all the woulda shoulda couldas are just that on both ends- nova people can say no one would have beaten them and we could claim we matched up better, would have been a different game. It’s an inane argument that is sour grapes for us though as we didn’t get there, just as UK didn’t get there in 2010.
As for next year- I’m excited. It’s going to be another roller coaster year but I’m hopeful that we are playing our best basketball when it counts. If our guys, regardless of what year they are give it their all, that’s all i can ask for. They picked duke, so they’re our guys and I’ll pull for them. At the end of the day it’s sports- I’m a diehard, as big as they come, but I’m not going to let my own false expectations or outside expectations from anyone else ruin my love for my team and my enjoyment watching them. We will be good. These guys all enjoy each other and have for a while. They will have a solid six months to get better before we even start the season- i think they’ll somehow defy all logic and get better during that time. Call me glass half full. And if they don’t happen to win it all next year and we have to listen/read to all of the same nauseating negativity then so be it.
I’m a big picture guy, i try and understand all sides. For the life of me i can’t understand why fans of a sport as unique as college basketball and a program like Duke, can be so over the top negative, how about you just enjoy the process. It’s part of the fun of it. Sometimes you win and most of the times you don’t at the end of a one and done tournament. And i couldn’t care less what people from the chronicle, espn, or thr/rr nitwits Who have zero clue about our program’s opinions are.
That’s just it. He blocked some shots in limited time last season and I really think defense will be key and the thing for Zion. You just have to alter or have the ability to block which all four mentioned have. There aren’t to many rim protectors in college ball thinks to the stretch fours and fives any way.
I’m not worried about rim protection or rebounding as I am leadership and shooting.
My expectations don’t solidify until mid January. No worries here.
Agreed, it’s like the people who use the old cliche this team has XYZ tournament ceiling before the season starts. Like wtf are you talking about. I guess Loyola Chicago had a final 4 ceiling. Otherwise how could they get there.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-challenges-but-theyre-pretty-cool-challenges
Here’s another good read by JD King! Says in so many words that the Chronicle might be slightly off base with their assessment of next year’s team.
Here’s another good read by JD King! Says in so many words that the Chronicle might be slightly off base with their assessment of next year’s team.
What a lot of people don't seem to grasp is we are "hoping" our team comes together and is really good.
Our freshmen are the elite coming out of high school. We don't know how solid our bench will be either. Past seasons at least we had something to go off of, even if it went down the crapper like the 16-17 team. No one knew how bad Bagley was going to be defensively when he signed late, and the same for Trent. Did anyone see that Coach K would have to resort to a zone to play decent team defense? I didn't.
That's my point. We can spin this however we want to, but the fact remains we are one of the biggest question marks going into next season.
That is what's hard on quite a few that have been fans for a while, the unknown. Yes this team may have more potential than the 14 and 16 teams did, but as of now that's exactly what it is, potential.
Our freshmen are the elite coming out of high school. We don't know how solid our bench will be either. Past seasons at least we had something to go off of, even if it went down the crapper like the 16-17 team. No one knew how bad Bagley was going to be defensively when he signed late, and the same for Trent. Did anyone see that Coach K would have to resort to a zone to play decent team defense? I didn't.
That's my point. We can spin this however we want to, but the fact remains we are one of the biggest question marks going into next season.
That is what's hard on quite a few that have been fans for a while, the unknown. Yes this team may have more potential than the 14 and 16 teams did, but as of now that's exactly what it is, potential.
Yep, One returning starter (Allen) over two seasons will leave lots of question marks.
OFC
My expectations for next season are that we will be really good and have a chance to win the championship. Depending on we’re playing around January when ACC play starts then I MIGHT start to expect a championship.
RJ Barrett is different. That kid just wins, and I think he will become the batman to Tre's robin. Not saying we won't have the silly turnover, lackadaisical defense games. But RJ is a future all-pro if he is healthy. And he has all the skills to dominate next year at the college level with opposing teams also worried about Cam and Zion.
This is where you are wrong. You need to give up on next year. The sooner the better. All hope is lost. Can't you see that? What's wrong with you?
There's nothing wrong with making a "way too soon" prediction and then reassessing mid-year, in my opinion. That's part of the fun.
You’re right. Coach K is washed up. All he wins these days is gold medals.
With the talent he had on those Olympic teams, he should have been winning gold every year, not just every 4th year.
My biggest issue with the article is the assumption that K is going to deploy a zone on defense because he did it for the 1st time in 30+ years of coaching out of necessity last year. Personally think that our 4 Freshman, Bolden, Javin, AOC and Goldwire can be an elite defensive team next year.
Zion is vastly underrated in regards to his defense (ask the guys on the EYBL who have played against him) and Tyus will come snatch Tre up by his short hairs if he’s not glued in on defense. Add in RJ and Cam who are both 6’7 with 7’ wingspans and can gaurd 3-4 different positions and let Bolden be an enforcer down low versus having him chase around a stretch PF.
Think we will actually have more success starting out the season playing man-2-man defense then we will on offense. I’d expect some close games early but it won’t be because we are having to score 80+ points to out score our opponents.
That isn’t my point. Predictions are fun. It’s the cliche of labeling a teams ncaa tournament life expectancy that is asinine.
Fair enough. I'm saying sweet 16 right now, but it's pretty much baseless (except playing the odds) and just a fun guess.
I think Duke is actually working backwards a bit with the one-and-done recruiting, but I will still root for them as a loyal fan. The lack of leadership is just too much to overcome IMO. 15 was such a great team but Amile and Quinn were critical.
Someone saying they think the team will lose 10 games and make it to the sweet 16 is asinine, but for another person to expect the same team to contend for the title 6 months before the season even begins isn't. Got it.
How is that different than any other season, though? We're always hoping. It's not like this is something new. We had many, many teams led by veterans that couldn't hold a candle to the team's we've had the last two seasons.
You're right, Marvin wasn't good defensively. Neither was Gary. We also lose a lot more games without either of them in the lineup. Grayson struggled most of the year, too....why does he continuously get a free pass from you?
Besides, I don't think anyone is spinning anything. We're going to be incredibly talented next season. The odds say we probably don't win a national championship or even make the Final Four. Again....how is that different than any other season?
For the love of god, be careful. The quoted post is the forerunner of site death. The above poster makes a great point about how it is apparently fine to say any stupid thing, so long as it is positive. But a well reasoned, constructed, and logical criticism is just dismissed.
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The DBR used to be a great place to go, with tons of good discussions. Then it got ultra-orthodox and allowed no criticism of the team. Now it is a ghost town. The original TDD was the same. After the move, the new TDD went down the same path, with any criticism resulting in the effective excommunication of posters.
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This site had better discussions of the all star circuit than TDD. Its OT board is the only thing keeping the lights on.
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Echo chambers may be comforting, but they aren't fun. Lets have honest discussion of the team both the good and the bad. Mistakes will be made by plenty of folks, on both sides. But don't go hunting down any dissenting post. It just kills a site in the long run.
Where have I given Allen a pass? I wished he would have shot the ball better, and it hurt Duke in some games, but a free pass? Come on man, you can do better than that.
Our hope this season is not like the hope we have other years. That was my point about Bagley. No one knew how he would be on the defensive side, which is basically saying that we don't know what most ANY of our guys will do this season. It's because we have hardly any experience. What other years can we say this?
The 15 title team is the best example. We brought in 4 freshmen, 3 very highly rated. Did anyone know in September that Winslow would be such a weapon on both sides of the ball, or that Tyus would be so clutch in many big games?
But we had some returning guys that complimented our young guns. If we are to have success close to that season, we will need those guys to be similar to our veterans from that 15 team.
Trent was fine on D in the M2M. Admittedly, he was worse in a zone. In the M2M, Trent can use his strength and body to play physical D. In the Zone, his strength and physicality were less useful, making him less effective.
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Allen and Bags were disasters in M2M. Teams had figured out that they could work ISOs and PnRs with both Allen and Bags, with the other three drawn away from that ISA. The result tended to be wide open looks and rim runs. To hide them on D, we had to switch to zone, which did not, AT ALL, play to the defensive abilities of Trent or TD. The Zone was a band aid that stopped the bleeding vs bad offensive teams, but it tended to fail against the better offensive teams (there are few of them nationally, but by the end of the ACCT and NCAAT, most teams are executing on O well, rendering the zone ineffective).
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K could've fixed the man D, but didn't. When Allen or Bags blew an assignment (or, as was more often the case, gave poor effort), K should have sat them. After bad games, don't start them and restrict their minutes. Sure, it might have lead to some more losses in the regular season. Well, we didn't win the (mythical) ACC regular season, we didn't make the ACCT final, and we didn't make the FF. So a few more losses in the pursuit of preparing our D for March would have been nice. Further, it would have helped Bags in the long run. His defensive struggles may push him out of the top 2 picks (they've already effectively ended any chance he had of going 1st overall), and might push him to 4. If MSU's Jackson didn't foul so much, Bags's ceiling might be the fourth pick. And the SOLE criticism of Bags in the draft process has been his defense. It is so bad that his athleticism and skill and offensive upside might not be enough to push him into the top 2-3, let alone 1. He's a prototypical face up 4 in today's game, but his D is so bad that teams might not pick him until 4. His main hope to go top 2 is for the Suns to get the 2nd pick, because they'd like a local guy, don't need a wing, and can't pick Ayton.
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And K could have fixed that by early Feb. If Bags and Allen had been publicly punished for bad D, I truly believe they'd have improved somewhat.
You've given Allen a pass. All but two people on this board can see that. You've made a point of it....over and over and over.
No one is arguing about the experience. That's clearly going to be one of the biggest hurdles this team must face. To your point about the '15 team, we only had two guys returning who averaged 10 minutes/game before in their career. One, was a much-maligned point guard who many wished would transfer (and he seriously considered it multiple times), and the other a small, undersized big who was forced into playing deep in the post as a sophomore. Matt Jones and Marshall Plumlee, prior to that season, had been total non-factors.
You absolutely love to point at the fact that Marvin was a poor defender, care to mention though about how NOBODY expected Marvin to be such a dominant rebounder and scorer? Nope, didn't think so. It works both ways.
Trent was a much better man-to-man defender than Grayson, Trent always drew the best wing player, Grayson took the weaker guy.
Grayson was a better zone defender than Trent. Trent also had the much tougher zone assignment though, having to play down low a lot.
Next year's team has a ton of potential obviously, as well as a lot of defensive potential. We all like to point at the fact of unproven freshman, and that's fair. But just as vital to next year's team will be the improvement of Bolden, AOC, Goldwire, Jack, and Javin. The freshmen can all be superman next year, but without our veterans taking another step forward (all of them have A LOT of room for improvement) we won't meet expectations.
I'll be honest, Javin's improvement from his freshman to sophomore year didn't impress me, he needs to improve at a more rapid rate going into his junior year. I did like what I saw from Bolden last year, he improved a lot.
Grayson was a better zone defender than Trent. Trent also had the much tougher zone assignment though, having to play down low a lot.
Next year's team has a ton of potential obviously, as well as a lot of defensive potential. We all like to point at the fact of unproven freshman, and that's fair. But just as vital to next year's team will be the improvement of Bolden, AOC, Goldwire, Jack, and Javin. The freshmen can all be superman next year, but without our veterans taking another step forward (all of them have A LOT of room for improvement) we won't meet expectations.
I'll be honest, Javin's improvement from his freshman to sophomore year didn't impress me, he needs to improve at a more rapid rate going into his junior year. I did like what I saw from Bolden last year, he improved a lot.
Once again, you're wrong on Allen. The problem I have with the criticism on Allen is people not able to see the whole picture. That's my beef with anyone who cried for him to be benched, said he was killing us... His shooting wasn't what I would have liked to have seen, but the rest of his play was pretty damn good. I even said I didn't think he should have taken the possible game winning shot against Kansas.
Dukiejay, I even wrote in another thread right after the season that a part of me was glad he was gone. Yes I like Allen, but it's been a rollercoaster with him his last 3 seasons.
Back to the topic at hand, forgive me if I don't expect too much out of this team. I was one of the biggest posters thinking the Allen/Bagley team would win it all back in October. Eight total losses later, losing 2 of 3 to our rival that most thought we would sweep, and a second place finish in the regular season has tempered any high expectation going forward with little experience to start with.
One of the most talented offensive players I've ever seen. Couldn't guard a cookie jar though. In the same league defensively as Kennard.
Allen's shooting hurt us too.
Threw that part in there about Allen just to be fair.
All i said was i think labeling a team with an NCAA Tournament ceiling or life expectancy is stupid because it’s a one and done tournament where you have zero idea what your path or road looks like until it is set. I have a problem with the terminology not with any particular team. That is my point. You do a wonderful job of consistently misquoting or inserting a premise that was never there to begin with to try and make your point. Predicting us to lose ten games next year is fine- we know our roster, we know our upcoming schedule and for the most part we know who our opponent’s rosters will include. That makes total sense. We know we are young- predicting us to lose 10 games, while i personally don’t think that happens is quite reasonable. Again, my problem was with the cliche ncaa tournament ceiling, that’s it.
I was merely implying it would have been nice had "Bags" had it going on both ends of the floor vs Kansas. He was out of position in the zone (per fairly usual) on D, and he seemed rendered fairly ineffective on offense.
I know what you ACTUALLY MEANT though about "can't have it both ways" (he deserves plaudits for his scoring and rebounding sure,) but it must be balanced by criticism of his shoddy d.All too frequently he ventured too far out on the wing (remember Grant Hill saying Duke's D looked like a 4-1?). In turn that invariably left the corner shot wide open against us, frequently for 3s this year.
OFC
Sure. Though Allen's man-to-man was likely just as big of a reason for K going to zone as was Bagley's man-to-man defense. But yes, Allen flourished in the zone.
It's not Allen shooting poorly that hurt us. It was him continuously jacking up three's when it was obvious he didn't have it that night, Kansas being a prime example. He passed the ball great, led the team fine when Duval was struggling in February, but when you have 4 other all-stars on your team, stop jacking shots when you are cold.
All fair points, this discussion wouldn't even be happening though if Marvin got more than 4 shots in the 2nd half against Kansas. I believe it was 4? May have even been less.
His D was poor, his zone positioning was bad as well. But had he gotten the ball more in the 2nd half, IMO he would have taken us to the promise land.
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