Yup. The lazy take is that people don't want to work because they are getting paid to stay home. That hasn't been the case for a while. Most service workers moved on to other jobs that offer better and more consistent pay. My wife's underachieving cousin is a great example. He has worked in restaurants for 15 years after flunking out of college. After getting laid off during Covid, he went to welding school. That's the opposite of lazy in my book, it's finally showing some initiative.
Saw this graphic a few weeks ago in an article. Shows where people have come and gone industry wise since covid
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Everytime I think about it, I ask myself what you would have to pay me to work that job. I worked construction and sold cars in college just to avoid working nights and weekends. The reality is, I don't know if there is a number where you can get a lot of folks to give up a Saturday afternoon or evening to work a job like that.
That is still the case. There are something like 9 million unemployed people and 10 million jobs posted. Certainly it's not the only thing going on with the service industry. As you said, a lot of people in the service industry have found out they like other jobs better even if they come with lower pay (or just found out they were worth more than they realized in non-service industries), and then there are COVID deaths; even if the service industry trends younger and it's a huge sector so a good number of those deaths still would have been service workers.
But even accounting for that, and accounting for the fact that there are location mismatches and people aren't generally relocating for service jobs, a number of those unemployed are workers that are reasonably holding out for a job with compensation comparable to the one they lost, some of those workers are not suited for service industry work, etc., you still end up with a significant number of unemployed workers declining to take employment equivalent to the job they lost. It wouldn't eliminate the problem, but it could make a pretty big difference at the margins.
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