Analysis: Bowl Destinations

[615dawg]

I'm going to go over the tiers above us just to show where we are, but we won't talk much about it.

Georgia - Playoff
Alabama and Ole Miss - New Years 6

Texas A&M and Kentucky will be on the Citrus Bowl selection list. Does the Citrus take a 9-3 Kentucky or an 8-4 Texas A&M? I think they take A&M.

The teams on the Tier 2 list will be:

Kentucky (9-3)
Arkansas (8-4)
Tennessee (7-5)
Mississippi State (7-5)
Auburn (6-6)
Florida (6-6)
Missouri (6-6)
South Carolina (6-6)
LSU (6-6)

The SEC can place these teams in any Tier 2 bowl. The Tier 2 bowls are technically even in the SECs eyes, but based on payouts, there are three tiers: Texas and Outback, followed by Music City and Gator, followed by Dukes Mayo and Liberty.

Kentucky will probably get the Outback. Arkansas will get their choice - I think they choose the Gator for a Florida trip for their fans.

Tennessee will end up in the Liberty, Music City or Dukes Mayo
Mississippi State will end up in the Liberty or Texas

I actually think Tennessee will mutually choose the Music City and the Texas will be wide open for us. Its a game that we haven't been to, in an NFL stadium in a city where we have a lot of alumni. Iowa State is probably the opponent.

The wildcard in this is will the Texas be a ***** like the Outback has in the past and not want Mississippi State, especially when LSU, Auburn and Florida are available. The Liberty would love to have us, but we have already played in Memphis this season. The Texas Bowl is probably going to end up with Iowa State - will they pull an Outback and advocate for a bigger name from the SEC side?

That leaves Memphis and Charlotte fighting over the 6-6 teams. LSU, Auburn and Florida are obviously who they would want.

The Birmingham Bowl gets the next pick - South Carolina makes sense if they are available. The Gasparilla Bowl gets the next pick - they would love if Florida were available to create an UF/UCF matchup in Tampa. Could see a backdoor deal be made here.

TL/DR: Texas Bowl looks like most likely destination, Liberty or Music City is possible if LSU wins tonight. But technically Gator, Outback or Dukes Mayo are all available. Because we are just one win over 6-6, we could drop to Birmingham. I don't think we will, but its a possibility.

 

[The Peeper]

Thanks, seriously, for taking the time to do all that. But, after the first sentence or two you lost me and I tapped out. All the speculation really doesn't matter until all games are complete and the committees make decisions. I'm really even more amazed at the preseason bowl game predictions when, even after today few if any of the bowls are decided.

 

[Bill Shankly]

I think UGA will eliminate Bama from the playoff, but it's still Bama. That ain't a sure thing by any means. Ole Moss may or may not make the Six if Bama loses to UGA.

 

[rynodawg]

Thanks,, also ACC is guaranteed one NY6 spot, so Wake/Pitt will grab an at-large probably in Peach. Orange is a playoff game this year. A&M would need to make it to #11.

Edited: LSU made that moot. I think Citrus would prefer either Arkansas or A&M over a 9-3 Kentucky, if they are allowed to select them. Kentucky was there in 2019.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

Welp, Coach O might have just changed the calculus a bit

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

The wife and I've been watching games all day. When I saw Texas A&M creeping up on the line I said"Uht Ohh! Here comes a touchdown throw!"

Damn I'm smart for an old guy.

 

[615dawg]

I think UGA will eliminate Bama from the playoff, but it's still Bama. That ain't a sure thing by any means. Ole Moss may or may not make the Six if Bama loses to UGA.

Ole Miss is definitely in the New Years 6. Doesn’t matter what happens elsewhere.

 

[BigDawg0074]

Jimbo is trash.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

13 SEC teams are bowl eligible now with LSU’s win over A&M.

I think you are going to see some of the weirdest and strangest jockeying on bowl placement this year.

 

[615dawg]

Yep. I updated it. The chances of us getting Outback'd by the Texas just shot up. Make some refundable reservations in Memphis as a backup.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

We will get screwed by the SEC no matter what.

 

[615dawg]

I think the Liberty will keep us from dropping to Birmingham. Or at least I hope so.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I think the Liberty will keep us from dropping to Birmingham. Or at least I hope so.

LT will help us.**

 

[rynodawg]

Missouri is the obvious one left out of SEC bowls. We have two (Liberty and Birmingham) that would beg for us.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Ole Miss is definitely in the New Years 6. Doesn’t matter what happens elsewhere.

If it comes down to them and Bama they aren't. If Bama beats UGA the definitely are.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

This won’t be popular here, but LT was one who got us in Outback Bowl a couple of years ago. Without him we would have gone to Memphis that year

 

[MSUDC11]

If it comes down to them and Bama they aren't. If Bama beats UGA the definitely are.

They are a Top 10 team, they will be in the NY6. Just a matter of which NY6 bowl it will be. Sugar or Peach most likely, outside chance for Fiesta.

 

[Rebeldude]

If it comes down to them and Bama they aren't. If Bama beats UGA the definitely are.

Moron, they will both be in a New Year's 6 game. The top 12 will be in. No way Ole Miss falls out of top 12 teams. It's now which one Ole Miss goes to.

If Bama isn't in top 4, they go to Sugar and OM goes to another. If Bama is in playoff, OM is in Sugar.

 

[615dawg]

Don’t be an idiot. They are definitely in a New Years 6. Whether it’s the Sugar or Peach depends on what Bama does but they are definitely in.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Moron, they will both be in a New Year's 6 game. The top 12 will be in. No way Ole Miss falls out of top 12 teams. It's now which one Ole Miss goes to.

If Bama isn't in top 4, they go to Sugar and OM goes to another. If Bama is in playoff, OM is in Sugar.

Maybe so but there are a few quirks in the system. It's not always that way. For example, the ACC champ will be in the NY6 even if they aren't in the Top 12. If Bama loses Ole Miss will not go to the Sugar Bowl. That would be great. There is something about them and the dang Sugar Bowl. Even when it isn't any better than the Orange Bowl we went to, they will tell you it is. Let's Go UGA !

 

[Bill Shankly]

This won’t be popular here, but LT was one who got us in Outback Bowl a couple of years ago. Without him we would have gone to Memphis that year

LT is never popular except among a very few people. I understand why. I don't like him either, for what at the time was a very PUBLIC personal reason/insult. That being said I can put that aside and recognize the good he did for MSU in times that bear no comparison to now. I'm not planning on sending him any Christmas Cards though, the jackass.

 

[60sdog]

If you don’t take care of the 12th game, a bowl is completely irrelevant.

 

[TimberBeast]

Ole Miss is definitely in the New Years 6. Doesn’t matter what happens elsewhere.

Yep and they should thank us for that.

 

[CoolDawg]

The only thing I don't like about the Texas Bowl is that it is played on January 4, which is after the holidays and most people have already returned to work. I fear attendance might suffer because of that. The SEC can claim the Liberty Bowl is even with the other Tier 2 bowls, but anyone who has been in the old run down Liberty Bowl Stadium knows better. Hopefully we will do better than that!

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

615dawg;
TL/DR: Texas Bowl looks like most likely destination, Liberty or Music City is possible if LSU wins tonight. But technically Gator, Outback or Dukes Mayo are all available. Because we are just one win over 6-6, we could drop to Birmingham. I don't think we will, but its a possibility.

Birmingham can’t happen with all the 6-6 teams below us.

I know it can. But that would be complete and total ******** that would have to be mixed by the SEC office since there are 5 teams with a worse record and one team that is tied in an easier division.

If MSU gets pushed to Birmingham at 7-4, I’m sorry.. something will have to burn.

 

[catvet]

We are going to the Texas Bowl. They want us and we want them. We are not going to the Liberty or Birmingham. After we got screwed over a few times, the SEC started making arraigned marriages. Fortunately they dont have to this time. Its January in a dome in Houston,

 

[rynodawg]

At #9 they are safely in NY6, no matter what happens. ACC will take spot #12. Even if Cincinnati loses Saturday, they would have a Group of 5 spot to fall back on,, or if they lost badly enough Houston/san Diego state could take their place. Only other team that could muck things up is Iowa, but the top 9 would all still be in NY6.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Texas Bowl is likely. I could see Iowa State or Kansas State as the opponent, but part of me wonders if the bowl wouldn’t reach for Texas Tech to set up a Leach reunion storyline… I guess we’ll find out.

 

[rynodawg]

On second thought there might be one scenario they don’t make it, but it involves Iowa getting the Rose Bowl and knocking the Big Ten out of the playoffs.

1. UGA beats Bama (Bama gets Sugar)
2. Iowa beats Michigan (replaced by Notre Dame in playoff)
3. Baylor beats OK state (Baylor gets Sugar)

There are only four ‘at large’ spots in Peach and Fiesta. One is already taken by ACC. In the above scenario, Ohio State, Michigan, and OK State all probably claim the last 3 spots, sending OM to Orlando. Unlikely but not impossible. Or am I missing something?

Edited to add: Even above might not work, because if multiple upsets happen, Alabama will just enter the playoffs with two losses. Oh well.