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58% chance to win?

L

loublue22_rivals308424

Heisman
Jan 30, 2004
105,896
13,707
78
Didn't Davidson steal a bid meaning they weren't even in the tournament before this weekend? But ESPN says we don't even beat them 6 out of 10 times?

Just watching this dumb scroll Houston, a 6 seed, has a 67% chance to win their game. Is Stephen Curry playing on Thursday or something?
 
A

akaukswoosh

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2006
81,850
125,819
93
loublue22 said:
Didn't Davidson steal a bid meaning they weren't even in the tournament before this weekend? But ESPN says we don't even beat them 6 out of 10 times?

Just watching this dumb scroll Houston, a 6 seed, has a 67% chance to win their game. Is Stephen Curry playing on Thursday or something?
Click to expand...
Davidson is an 11-loss low major.
 
A

awf

Heisman
May 31, 2006
10,411
20,774
0
The line I saw was UK -6. With the over and under at 141 points.
 
M

mbc82584

All-Conference
Jun 11, 2006
3,321
2,204
0
BPI (which is what ESPN uses with its predictor) has undervalued us all year, their algorithm is weird in accounting for injuries. Normally a 6 point favorite like we are is between 60-65% win probability. With the injury to Vanderbilt, and the fact we've got a quick turnaround playing in Timbuktu, 60% is probably a reasonable expectation.
 
G

gright

Senior
Aug 24, 2010
936
626
0
People that make picks on CBS sportsline currently 86% are picking UK to win. Let's face it you can't take anyone for granted which it comes to the tournament.
 
U

ulismyman

All-Conference
Jan 11, 2015
6,451
3,335
0
mbc82584 said:
BPI (which is what ESPN uses with its predictor) has undervalued us all year, their algorithm is weird in accounting for injuries. Normally a 6 point favorite like we are is between 60-65% win probability. With the injury to Vanderbilt, and the fact we've got a quick turnaround playing in Timbuktu, 60% is probably a reasonable expectation.
Click to expand...

Davidson has quick turnaround as well...farther to travel
 
M

mbc82584

All-Conference
Jun 11, 2006
3,321
2,204
0
ulismyman said:
Davidson has quick turnaround as well...farther to travel
Click to expand...

Davidson doesnt have 20k rabid fans who would make the trip if it was reasonable though, which mitigates the pseudo-home court advantage we get many times at neutral games
 
R

richbrookstomato

Heisman
Sep 13, 2003
23,905
33,655
0
The
Aike said:
According to Sagarin, Davidson is the 13th hottest team in the country.

We are 1st.

Virginia 3rd.

Arizona 4th.

Nice region.
Click to expand...

Those numbers should erase any doubt about how the committee screws us each year.

We seem to always draw the hottest teams in our bracket.:mad::mad::mad:
 
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R

RalphDaltonFan

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
60,269
41,764
113
loublue22 said:
Didn't Davidson steal a bid meaning they weren't even in the tournament before this weekend? But ESPN says we don't even beat them 6 out of 10 times?

Just watching this dumb scroll Houston, a 6 seed, has a 67% chance to win their game. Is Stephen Curry playing on Thursday or something?
Click to expand...

Davidson is a .500 team away from home. That includes the run they went on in DC this weekend to win A-10 tournament. So entering the A-10 tournament they were 7-10 away from home. Realize the neutral fans usually pull for "Cinder-Fella" but a lot of fans also want to see great games if they don't get to see teams often. As a fan would you rather see UK-Arizona in 2nd round in Boise or one or both of Davidson/UNC Greensboro mucking things up? Now if you hate UK, Arizona, Cal or Miller, it is what it is, but as a fan of the tournament, I'd say many neutral fans will want to see a great game.

Eastern media loves to hype bubble/surprising Eastern teams after a conference tournament run--See Providence--and best thing is to bet against teams you weren't hearing of entering the conference tournaments. If they were this great, they'd have been locked in. Shooting the 3-ball is scary, but if you run them off it, and make them take tough attempts and can score tough 2's--you win. And a team that wins their conference and makes 1 FG in last 13 Min of a game is involved in the type of trash games that forced NCAA to change rules to improve offensive flow.
 
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HenryMuto

HenryMuto

Heisman
Mar 31, 2012
20,685
13,979
113
Davidson is a good team. Not a great team but a good team with 2 great players. Welcome to the 5/12 game. There is no doubt we could lose to Davidson if they are hitting their shots.
 
C

CatOfDaVille

All-American
Mar 30, 2007
6,173
8,106
0
Best way to not get upset... be the most popular team picked to be upset.

You think our players don't watch ESPN? I'm happy they'll see stuff like this. It just ensures that we'll be focused.
 
C

Cat in ga

All-Conference
Nov 2, 2017
2,898
2,806
0
Who cares what espn thinks. Everyone knows who they want to win and it's not us. Doesn't bother me in the least. Just makes each victory sweeter.
 
J

JC43

All-Conference
Oct 6, 2006
3,807
2,956
0
Think it's hilarious that a lot of punditsare goung to tge Florida game saying they mirror Davidson...except we played at Fla on senior night against a possible SEC POY in Chiozza...we beat the crap out of Davidson. They put up most 3pter in a tourney game only making 21%...go Big blue!!!
 
K

Kubballfan

Senior
Apr 6, 2012
297
444
0
If I was a betting man, I would bet U.K. covers this spread easily.

UK playing great recently, and Coach Cal is a great tournament coach.
 
U

uk78_rivals88018

All-American
Feb 6, 2003
12,401
8,783
0
I think the upset will be Ohio State. Guess we can worry about fan support in Boise as the crowd likely will be for the underdog. But, we would beat Davidson even on their home court.
 
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