20 wins or bust

[RUwishbone]

I have not written a big long analysis of what needs to happen to make the NCAA tournament since the late 90’s under a differ poster name the title was 20 wins or bust. That was at the beginning of a season, not sure of the exact year. It was simple find a way to 20 wins or it’s a bust of a season.

So now here we 13 games left in the regular season. Same title 20 or bust. But now it’s a third of the way into the league slate.

It is simple now find a way to 20 wins in REGULAR season and were dancing on the ceiling if not there will be some explanation we won’t be able to handle.

The break down is this as I see it.

Wins over Nebraska & Northwestern at home up to 2- bridge jumper games

A couple losses to Purdue & Maryland on the road- playing with house money games

A split of the Michigan games at MSG and home up to 3 got dealt 2 aces happy with a black jack and a loss for an overall win.

Take 2 of 3 home games vs. Illinois. Purdue and Maryland up to 5 – Need to make hay games and earn our keep

Find a road win at Iowa, Ohio State, Penn state or Wisconsin up to 6 – got dealt a 14 or 15 on 4 different hands and hoping for a good 6 or 7 to have a winning hand. Overtime losses mean nothing here it is still a loss.

Please note this is not a prediction but more of a likely outcome based on what has occurred and as the outcomes listed above change or happen. It becomes my guide book to let me at least know if were up a break or down a break on a way to 20 wins.

The good thing now we are ahead in the race and need to just win 6 of 13 to get an invite on 3.15.20 or that explanation will be tough to swallow

In my books 20 wins is good enough to go dancing just hope we can do better than what I is outlined above to make the days leading up to 3.15.20 not as nervous.

 

[MV9000]

Having to win less than half our remaining games is a nice start. Good thread.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

I have not written a big long analysis of what needs to happen to make the NCAA tournament since the late 90’s under a differ poster name the title was 20 wins or bust. That was at the beginning of a season, not sure of the exact year. It was simple find a way to 20 wins or it’s a bust of a season.

So now here we 13 games left in the regular season. Same title 20 or bust. But now it’s a third of the way into the league slate.

It is simple now find a way to 20 wins in REGULAR season and were dancing on the ceiling if not there will be some explanation we won’t be able to handle.

The break down is this as I see it.

Wins over Nebraska & Northwestern at home up to 2- bridge jumper games

A couple losses to Purdue & Maryland on the road- playing with house money games

A split of the Michigan games at MSG and home up to 3 got dealt 2 aces happy with a black jack and a loss for an overall win.

Take 2 of 3 home games vs. Illinois. Purdue and Maryland up to 5 – Need to make hay games and earn our keep

Find a road win at Iowa, Ohio State, Penn state or Wisconsin up to 6 – got dealt a 14 or 15 on 4 different hands and hoping for a good 6 or 7 to have a winning hand. Overtime losses mean nothing here it is still a loss.

Please note this is not a prediction but more of a likely outcome based on what has occurred and as the outcomes listed above change or happen. It becomes my guide book to let me at least know if were up a break or down a break on a way to 20 wins.

The good thing now we are ahead in the race and need to just win 6 of 13 to get an invite on 3.15.20 or that explanation will be tough to swallow

In my books 20 wins is good enough to go dancing just hope we can do better than what I is outlined above to make the days leading up to 3.15.20 not as nervous.

A friend and I were talking about this after the game yesterday. My formula is simple - win SEVEN (could include a game or two in the Big ten tournament) and we are in. If six (including the game or two in Big Ten tourney) then good possibility depending on what others do. My friend believes that FIVE gets us in, and i believe that’s below the threshold.

 

[BigEastPhil]

I sort of remember OP’s post from many years ago.

 

[RoxboroughKnight]

I’d like to think 20 wins gets us in. Knowing the Caldwell game doesn’t count, maybe we need 21 to be safe. With the way we’re playing at home, we have a realistic shot at both if we can find some wins on the road.

 

[RUich]

I fully expect to win the remaining home games Problem solved!

 

[RUBOB72]

Not to sound unconvinced but 20 wins guarantees us nothing...you saw today how we are still perceived in the media and in the eyes of some coaches as a fluke ...that is a fair assessment based upon Rutgers past history... if we are at 20 wins and somebody thinks padunk U is more deserving we can’t feign surprise until we win another 7-8 games ... then we can *****...Just Win Rutgers !!!!!!!!!!

 

[RUJMM78]

Winning 14 games with 13 remaining seems like it would be easy to win at least six more games.The problem is that Rutgers will be the underdog in every remaining road game which adds pressure to win every remaining home game.There is very little margin for error when winning on the road for every B1G team is so difficult..

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

This should be hung up at the Hillsborough Deli.

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Winning 14 games with 13 remaining seems like it would be easy to win at least six more games.The problem is that Rutgers will be the underdog in every remaining road game which adds pressure to win every remaining home game.There is very little margin for error when winning on the road for every B1G team is so difficult..

I think the pressure is on the fans. The team will do ok.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

The remaining road games based on rating right now...

@ Iowa +7
(N) UM +1
@ Md. +8
@ OSU +7.5
@ Wisc +4.5
@ PSU +3.5
@ Purdue +6

The remaining 7 road/neutral games should be all single digit lines.

 

[yesrutgers01]

It is amazing to me that we can look at the schedule at this point of the season and actually say 22-23 wins could be possible. 19 games is sort of the median point for me now.

I wouldn't be mad with 18 , I would be ok with 19 and thrilled the day we get our 20th win. But, you can actually see where 22 could come from and not be laughed out of the breakroom...

 

[RU677381]

Another factor.....when do the losses come. If we lose a few games at the end of the regular season and get knocked out in the first round of the BIG tournament, things might get hairy.

 

[fluoxetine]

Projected 22-9

 

[soundcrib]

Projected 22-9

This...we’re in.

 

[RUBOB72]

22 wins and we punch the ticket...Pikiell is a solid coach who knows exactly what needs to happen over the next 8-10 games...there were some who doubted him and his inability to draw highly rated recruits to Rutgers...this is a case of 1 game at a time.

 

[RUnTeX]

Could still see hitting a bump in the road/Feb slump as the season wears on. Mulcahy is a freshman and will need to adjust to the longer season. As we get to around 25 games played, let's see how the team's legs are doing. The team's depth will help as the minutes are being spread around but it'll be tough to sustain the defensive intensity from here on out. Kudos to the S&C coach for the visible progress and marked improvement and if there's no lull in play come mid/late Feb, it will be further testament to him as well as the deep roster/bench that Pikiell has built.

It may sorta feel like the light switch just flipped overnight esp. if the team gets to the Dance since maybe this season was only supposed to be a best case of qualifying for a post-season bid (i.e. NIT) and part of a slow climb up to respectability and competitiveness. But it really has been a steady rebuild and lunch pail type effort by the players and staff to finally start to see the fruits of their labor.

 

[theRU]

We beat Iowa and things are really going to change in terms of projections.

I'm thinking about how we can go 10-3 or better right now

 

[RUTBAY1]

It would’t surprise me if we have the most bench minutes per game in the B1G. That means fresh legs as the season wears on. Don’t discount that toward leveling the playing field a bit on some of those road games or even in the B1G tournament. Need to keep running the horses out there every game.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

20 wins?

Well...I’m thinking 17 going into the month of February

 

[RUHouston]

I’m gonna stick with Pike: we were picked 12th so we’re 12th :Wink:

I’d love to see him cutting nets down saying that! :Laughing

 

[BillyC80]

After these next 3 if we’re 16-5 (can’t believe how far we’ve come) then I’ll be a happy fan, to that point. With 4 more home games plus a neutral site game at MSG, I like our chances of getting 20+ this year.

 

[CranfordKnight]

Winning 14 games with 13 remaining seems like it would be easy to win at least six more games.The problem is that Rutgers will be the underdog in every remaining road game which adds pressure to win every remaining home game.There is very little margin for error when winning on the road for every B1G team is so difficult..

We'll know a lot more about our team after the Iowa game. If you watch that Mike DeCourcy interview with the Indiana guy in the other thread, he points out that he has Rutgers #3 in the Big Ten after MSU and MD because unlike other teams, we are competitive on the road, even though we haven't won. Other team in our neighborhood are getting thrashed on the road, but we have a win and two close losses. So if we go into Iowa and lose another close game, I think you can make an argument that it's likely we find a way to pick off someone on the road or at MSG.

 

[bac2therac]

we will need a quality road win .it has to happen

 

[BillyC80]

Good chance we get another road win and a neutral site win at MSG (does that count as a road win)?

 

[ScarletDave]

3 true road B1G games so far
Tight battle with B1G #1 MSU at Breslin
3 point loss to B1G #2 Illinois
Destruction of Nebraska

We are #3 in the league for a reason. Go out there and get the hawks

 

[AshCatchEm]

Highly doubt we make it with anything less than 19. Almost impossible imo

 

[Pancho1939_rivals]

Unfortunately this league is so good and our schedule gets put into overdrive in February that we could easily only win 4 or 5 more games. If we go 4-9 or 5-8 to finish out the season we are an NIT team. The good news is defense and rebounding travels!

 

[fluoxetine]

No. 5-8 plus 0-1 we are still in. 4-9 plus 0-1 we are out. 4-9 + 1-1 in.

This team is getting in barring a quite large collapse at this point.

 

[RU848789]

Unfathomable that we don't get in at 20-11/11-9. Can't believe people can't see that. 11-9 in the best conference in the country and with one top 10-20 OOC win (SHU) gets us in. The question for me is whether we're in at 19-12/10-10. Depends more on which ones we win and lose from here on out, but I'd lean towards us getting in, especially if we win one in the tourney.

 

[Fzacsattac]

Keep on chopping..........lol

 

[BillyC80]

I’ll say this, if we somehow win at Iowa (tall order) then the expectation has to be that we go at least 6-6 the rest of the way, to finish the regular season at 21-10 or better.

 

[RUwishbone]

We got IOWA's number on the road and they got our at the RAC this backwards rival who you think should win doesn't

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Unfathomable that we don't get in at 20-11/11-9. Can't believe people can't see that. 11-9 in the best conference in the country and with one top 10-20 OOC win (SHU) gets us in. The question for me is whether we're in at 19-12/10-10. Depends more on which ones we win and lose from here on out, but I'd lean towards us getting in, especially if we win one in the tourney.

11-9
with 10-0 at home
1-9 on road
a loss in B1GT Thursday game
3 of 8 of these teams hit skids (PSU ILL IND PUR MICH WISC MD MIN)
9 other deserving B1G teams

In the end I agree with your premise.....and the 10-10 question

 

[JavaDunk18]

20 wins before BTT gets us 7 seed of above, 20 wins inc BTT gets us an 8-10, 19 after BTT gets us to Dayton..18 gets us an NIT home game...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Bart has 12 teams 9-11 or better
9 teams either 11-9 or 10-10
us at 13-7 MSU 15-5

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Minnesota 18-14 11-9 1-1 OR
Rutgers 20-12 11-9 0-1

Minny OOC 49 th ish
RU OOC 315 th ish

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Rutgers 20-12 11-9 0-1 VS Indiana 20-13 9-11 1-1
OR PSU 20-13 9-11 1-1

 

[Scangg]

The team still haven't reached its peak. Offense can still improve quite a bit.

The team is so deep that the longer physical B1G season favors our style of play. Tired legs and banged up bodies hurt outside shooting teams more. We can survive injuries to key players as seen with Geo out. Myles is really the one guy who can't get hurt.

 

[bac2therac]

until we really get to the nitty gritty of what the other schools contending for the NCAA tourney says its hard to give numbers. I do say currently RU has very favorable numbers, can they sustain those numbers going 10-10 in league play, I do not know yet. I do know the early trends are that the ACC is really struggling in all metrics this year and that there are not a lot of low and mid majors that are going to contend for at large bids.


A large part of RU's rise in the NET is the stunning play of Seton Hall since RU beat them. Its huge...keep rooting for them to win every game. When all is said and done a win over a top 10 Big East champions is a win whose cup runneths over.