‘With money being played on Rutgers see the line moving a little.
If the Defense can stop the run and the OL continues to gel this game is winnable for us !
and keep the Turnover ratio positive for us.
-19 Michigan Point Spread
- Thread starter RU#1fan
- Start date
‘With money being played on Rutgers see the line moving a little.
If the Defense can stop the run and the OL continues to gel this game is winnable for us !
and keep the Turnover ratio positive for us.
And if you remove sacks Del was 29-201 for an average of 6.9ypc. Even if you remove the 71 yds run it's still 4.7ypc.
All this "if you remove...." is dumb. Michigan has been blowing open big runs with 2 RBs. We need to play fast and disciplined. The defense is going to need to come up with a few strips and a couple of huge stops to give us a chance.
Vegas sets the initial spread. After that, it adjusts to the betting public.
On the flip side, mighty Syracuse has averaged nearly 300 ypg in their two games other than Rutgers, who limited Syracuse to 74 yards rushing.
Some here said that we really will not know what kind of team Rutgers has until the Michigan game is played.
Another positive. Many were worried if we could score without having a short field. Our offense scored 38 points and Delaware had zero turnovers.
Our offensive TD drives were:
8 plays 67 yards
4 plays 84 yards
8 plays 60yards
8 plays 59 yards
12 plays 75 yards
If we can do half of that Saturday we've got a shot.
Our offensive TD drives were:
8 plays 67 yards
4 plays 84 yards
8 plays 60yards
8 plays 59 yards
12 plays 75 yards
If we can do half of that Saturday we've got a shot.
Georgia Tech did not play the Citadel this year. Lose to Northern Illinois in a game they really should've won (by one point), handily beat top 25 FCS opponent Kennesaw State, and then lost the close one at Clemson.
I was pretty darn close on my prediction of the spread (I think I said 20 pts) but that doesn't mean I don't think we can make a game of it. It will come down to doing enough on offense to score points and give our defense some rest. I expect special teams to be an edge for us in every game between Korsak and our return units. Maybe this year Romance Novel writes a different ending to the story and hits the game winner in the Big House.
Some really good betting stats. Would be interesting to see how the percentages might be scalable based on point spread differential and home vs. road games.
I find it interesting that Vegas thinks there’s a markedly better chance Kent State and Western Kentucky are competitive vs. Maryland and Indiana than us being competitive against Michigan. Seems to be more about Michigan being hyped up than about Rutgers.
Look at it this way.
In spite of our record, nobody expects Rutgers to win this game, other than some RU fanatics.
Were playing with house money. Nothing to lose.
My prediction:
Our defense and special teams keep us in this game into the 4Q, and then we have a chance to win this thing.
This will be a close game.
In spite of our record, nobody expects Rutgers to win this game, other than some RU fanatics.
Were playing with house money. Nothing to lose.
My prediction:
Our defense and special teams keep us in this game into the 4Q, and then we have a chance to win this thing.
This will be a close game.
A few quick thoughts:
1. -19 is way too high. Michigan hasn’t played anyone, and they aren’t explosive like OSU. This will be a somewhat ugly game and a lot of field position.
2. I am a huge GS fan, and I appreciate we’re still building. However, in year 2 we should not be getting beat by 20 even at Michigan. They are a solid team but they’re not a top 10 team.
3. Our fans are weird — afraid of Delaware, conceding a blow loss to Michigan, etc. Again, I understand we’re still rebuilding but we’re a friggin’ B1G school. We have athletes on the team, and a real coaching staff. This mind set needs to change.
1. -19 is way too high. Michigan hasn’t played anyone, and they aren’t explosive like OSU. This will be a somewhat ugly game and a lot of field position.
2. I am a huge GS fan, and I appreciate we’re still building. However, in year 2 we should not be getting beat by 20 even at Michigan. They are a solid team but they’re not a top 10 team.
3. Our fans are weird — afraid of Delaware, conceding a blow loss to Michigan, etc. Again, I understand we’re still rebuilding but we’re a friggin’ B1G school. We have athletes on the team, and a real coaching staff. This mind set needs to change.
That the favorite covers (this should be 50% of the time and the historical stats are very close to 50%) or the dog wins outright (have not seen this stat but 35% sounds about right) means that, in the case of the dog losing by less than the line, happens 30% of the time (15%/50%) that the bettor on the dog wins his bet. In other words, if you bet the dog (like RU this weekend), 30% of the time you win your bet it will be due to the spread, not your team winning the game. Now, if you start analyzing things further, I'm confident that the stats for double digit or more dogs will indicate that the line comes into play more and more. Remember, for a game that has a 1 point favorite, the fav will win outright 50% and the dog will win outright the other 50%. This changes dramatically for a 30 point favorite. The fav wins outright in the very high 90's and, for those who bet the dog, the line comes into play in pretty much every game.
PS: I like RU and the points on Saturday and do not expect RU to win outright. Hard fought game.
Do I think we could win if we play lights out ? Certainly why not us? The realist here still knows we lack a dominating O line such as some of our conference foes. Our biggest problem will be not allowing big plays which is very probable against this Michigan team. Can we score yes. Can we compete and win ? Let’s be real here. I have no doubts Schiano will have them ready to play a game which many give us no chance to win. Michigan has many talented players with solid units and depth. We are definitely deeper, bigger , faster but are we ready to shock a foe who has no respect for us? We all know the keys. Discipline, play error and penalty free…Don’t play scared. Love Langan out of the backfield. Noah Vedral needs to continue making solid decisions and play smart football. Gleeson needs to be his creative self keeping Michigan off balance . Make no mistake Jim Harbough will if given the chance try to embarrass us on National tv and that’s his right. I always am nervous … EVERY game … no matter who our opponent is. That is a good not bad thing . FOCUS and CHOP!!!!! N
I haven't done a deep dig on more revealing stats, but this should give clues to how the game may play out on Saturday. I'm going to put some raw numbers from last year and this year from Rutgers and Michigan. You make your decision based on the info provided.
From the 2020 season defense:
Rutgers was 99th against the run, 81st against the pass, and 104th overall in total defense
Michigan 79th against the run, 96th against the pass, and 89th overall in total defense
From 2021 season defense (so far):
Rutgers 33rd against the run, 34th against the pass, and 17th overall defense
Michigan 30th against the run, 90 against the pass, and 62nd overall defense
Opponents offensive rankings:
Michigan has faced Northern Illinois (71st total offense), Western Michigan (84th), and Washington (112th)
Rutgers has faced Temple (92nd), Syracuse (110th), and Delaware (40th-FCS)
Neither team has faced great opponents, but Rutgers has played better defense. All 3 Michigan opponents have reached over 300 yards in total offense. Rutgers has held all three opponents to less than 260 yards. Just as people say you can run on Rutgers, you can pass at will against Michigan. UM had several 300-yard passing days against them last year and this year. Vedral threw for over 300 yards against Michigan last year. If Rutgers attacks Michigan the same way, I see why he can't have another 300-yard passing day. One thing I will say that's going to be a significant advantage for Rutgers is special teams. That advantage wasn't there last year. Also, the hostile environment would be huge, but Rutgers survived going against a long-time rival Syracuse without any problems.
I don't get why there is a 19 point spread other than one team being named Michigan. It is another close game if last year's score and this year's numbers are any indications. The deciding factor is who makes the least number of mistakes and executes when it counts.
When I have more time, I'll go more into the offense, personnel, and any other changes (Michigan's DC) that may impact the game.
From the 2020 season defense:
Rutgers was 99th against the run, 81st against the pass, and 104th overall in total defense
Michigan 79th against the run, 96th against the pass, and 89th overall in total defense
From 2021 season defense (so far):
Rutgers 33rd against the run, 34th against the pass, and 17th overall defense
Michigan 30th against the run, 90 against the pass, and 62nd overall defense
Opponents offensive rankings:
Michigan has faced Northern Illinois (71st total offense), Western Michigan (84th), and Washington (112th)
Rutgers has faced Temple (92nd), Syracuse (110th), and Delaware (40th-FCS)
Neither team has faced great opponents, but Rutgers has played better defense. All 3 Michigan opponents have reached over 300 yards in total offense. Rutgers has held all three opponents to less than 260 yards. Just as people say you can run on Rutgers, you can pass at will against Michigan. UM had several 300-yard passing days against them last year and this year. Vedral threw for over 300 yards against Michigan last year. If Rutgers attacks Michigan the same way, I see why he can't have another 300-yard passing day. One thing I will say that's going to be a significant advantage for Rutgers is special teams. That advantage wasn't there last year. Also, the hostile environment would be huge, but Rutgers survived going against a long-time rival Syracuse without any problems.
I don't get why there is a 19 point spread other than one team being named Michigan. It is another close game if last year's score and this year's numbers are any indications. The deciding factor is who makes the least number of mistakes and executes when it counts.
When I have more time, I'll go more into the offense, personnel, and any other changes (Michigan's DC) that may impact the game.
Last edited:
75% of this fan base is still traumatized by the Fudd *** era.
This! Thank you for posting this, really. I was going to try and look at their Defensive personnel since Noah had a career game against them last year.
I think if we continue to play relatively mistake-free football (that DPI against UDel was BS) and can induce some takeaways I don't see why this can't be close enough to make 110,000 fans nervous and Harbaugh jittery. We also have to keep in mind, yes, McNamarra came in and played very, very well LAST YEAR against us and I think part of it was the case of the backup QB always seeming to light us up...we have more tape on the kid now and he hasn't exactly been putting up Heisman numbers against inferior competition (granted they've been running it very effectively so why pass?)
Michigan is very explosive this season. Averaging over ten yards gained per pass attempt and over seven yards gained per rush. And we lead the nation in rushing. Passing 3/4 of the time like UNC is not the only way to be "explosive".
It will be this way against these Blue Bloods until we win a couple we are not supposed to. We are playing with House $$$$$$ these next 3 weeks . Never more important then to make Michigan a one dimensional team if that is possible. Stop the run… I believe our back 7 can slow up the passing game.
You can certainly scheme to stop the run but if you do you will have maybe three defenders who can concentrate on the passing game.
and adjust the line according to how the bets are placed.
Maybe and maybe not… listen we know Michigan is loaded and a great program but As Schiano said, “ we’ll line em up , that’s why they play the game.”
If I was a D coordinator defending Michigan, I would attempt to take away the running game. Passing overall has been good while the run game has been exceptional. Washington has a good defense (along with a bad offense) and attempted to defend the Wolverines straight up didn't work.
So Brun, you would give the points if you had to bet? Seems a bit wide to me. RU's special teams are elite. Long fields for Michigan if their defense doesn't turn Vedral over.
I saw a post on Facebook about the line and how Vegas is "disrespecting" Rutgers. Are people really that stupid?? Apparently so.
And 2 of those games are at home.
We win one of those 3. Mark it down.
I was concerned about Michigan wiping out Washington, but U-dub has also lost to Montana.
I'm still somewhat afraid Michigan will blow our doors off. However, under Schiano I really think the team will fight like hell all game. Under Ash, the team seemed fine with being the Washington Generals.
I wouldn't bet this game, but if I was forced to in a sort of save the Earth circumstance, would take Michigan and give the points. Home game, we have lots of momentum, last season still stings, passing game looks to be coming along. I am slightly concerned about our defense, but I just may be making too much of the half dozen or so long drives they have given up this year. I understand that Rutgers is improved from last year, but I think you are going to finish the year 6-6.
I have been saying the same thing all week. the week before the game all we heard was that this was not Howard or Morgan State. This was a really good FCS team. We better be ready. They played Pitt really tough. Etc etc. now, we win easily. Game over by half time and all of a sudden UD is just an FCS team.
I do not think our run D against UD should be that much of a concern. I watched the replay and really concentrated on the d-line. Now, this is not 100% but on most of the runs that appeared to gash our defense were plays where all four of the down linemen essentially bull rushed right of the snap. They attacked the gaps. The UD linemen just took the defense in the direction they were already going and natural gaps opened up. The UD staff is good and they saw this and took advantage of the over aggressive nature of our D. Other times when we bull rushed we got one or two guys through and they either stopped the run or sacked the QB. Against UM our approach will be very different. I believe our D just thought they could overpower UD. There is no such possibility this Saturday. I expect our D to have a very different approach and I trust our staff to have them ready. If you look at the replay of the UD game you will see that before half time the line play changed and one or two guys held back on each play and from that point on their running success diminished. Trust the coaching staff to have this team ready.