BWI Sports Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
It's been a bit. Two misleading box scores from Week 13
Marshall - 24pts, 438yds, 6.3ypp (-3 TO)
App - 26 pts, 276 yds, 3.9ypp
Missou - 6 pts, 301yds, 4.2 ypp (-2 TO)
OU - 17pts, 276yds, 4.5ypp
Semi misleading - ECU should have lost but not by this much
ECU - 24pts, 401yds, 6.1ypp (-3 TO)
UTSA - 58pts, 458yds, 6.3ypp
Marshall - 24pts, 438yds, 6.3ypp (-3 TO)
App - 26 pts, 276 yds, 3.9ypp
Missou - 6 pts, 301yds, 4.2 ypp (-2 TO)
OU - 17pts, 276yds, 4.5ypp
Semi misleading - ECU should have lost but not by this much
ECU - 24pts, 401yds, 6.1ypp (-3 TO)
UTSA - 58pts, 458yds, 6.3ypp
Now 3-3 on the ones I've posted this year. Here is one I'll share for tonight...
Montana/Oakland over 160.5
Montana/Oakland over 160.5
Diego Pavia may not win the Heisman, but he is the betting Heisman in my opinion. Per teamrankings.com, his team is 9-2-1 ATS this season (I assume this is vs closing line). That brings Pavia to 28-10-2 ATS in his last 3 seasons! NMST was 8-5 ATS in his first season, which I didn't include because I wasn't sure how many games he started that season. If he started all of them, his overall ATS record would be 36-15-2.
There were a bunch of misleading box scores this week, but I only noted one.
Auburn 20pts, 411yds, 5.5 ypp (-2 TO)
Alabama - 27 pts, 280yds, 3.8ypp
Unfortunately, I bet Auburn. They should have covered.
There were a bunch of misleading box scores this week, but I only noted one.
Auburn 20pts, 411yds, 5.5 ypp (-2 TO)
Alabama - 27 pts, 280yds, 3.8ypp
Unfortunately, I bet Auburn. They should have covered.
Picking up some slack for @Erial_Lion if anyone needs a little help with some bowl games
He covers PSU at 21:00
He covers PSU at 21:00
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Took a few month break from the board as things got more and more unbearable...but back for the madness of March.
Was 4-3 (+.7 units) on my NCAAB plays. Here is a future for this week...
Liberty to win the CUSA Tournament (+275 at DK)
Really good price on Liberty here...they were leaking oil a bit coming home after they wrapped up the regular season title. Hoping that the week off to reset things and the motivation of needing to win the tourney to dance gives them the boost they need to get playing again like the most talented team in the conference (which they are). Shop around, as they are as low as +175 (BOL) elsewhere.
Was 4-3 (+.7 units) on my NCAAB plays. Here is a future for this week...
Liberty to win the CUSA Tournament (+275 at DK)
Really good price on Liberty here...they were leaking oil a bit coming home after they wrapped up the regular season title. Hoping that the week off to reset things and the motivation of needing to win the tourney to dance gives them the boost they need to get playing again like the most talented team in the conference (which they are). Shop around, as they are as low as +175 (BOL) elsewhere.
Liberty laid another egg, getting upset tonight in the CUSA Quarters. Now -.3 units across the 8 plays this season.
I’ll share one NCAAB for today…
New Mexico -13.5 San Jose St
also some 13’s out there (or a -13.5 -102 at DK)
New Mexico -13.5 San Jose St
also some 13’s out there (or a -13.5 -102 at DK)
I'd need it around -1 or -1.5 to consider it (unless something changes in the next 48 hours)...but suspect you'll be looking at something more like -3 or even -3.5.
Oh well. Good news is I had UMass +270 today and a ticket on Akron (+135) to win the tournament.
DKNJ has the following odds posted for teams to make the NCAA Tournament...
Team - YES/NO
Auburn: +390/-600
Miami (Oh): -900/+550
Missouri: -350/+250
Oklahoma: +450/-700
San Diego St: -120/-110 (priced at +105 to win MWC this afternoon)
SMU: -130/+100
Texas: -125/-105
VCU: -300/+245 (priced at +160 to win A10 tournament)
My thoughts on them...
Auburn - lean towards playing no, but priced pretty fairly
Miami (Oh) - I played the yes at -900...steep price, but still undervalued
Missouri - I played the yes at -350...think they have a better than 80% chance
Oklahoma - I played the yes at +450...think they have a better than 20% chance
San Diego St - Seems fairly priced...small chance that they get an at-large, and it's priced in accordingly
SMU - Think it's priced pretty fairly
Texas - I played the no at -105...with San Diego St and an A10 bid stealer hanging out there, tough to see them at better than 40%
VCU - Think it's priced fairly when considering they have a good chance to play for the auto-bid tomorrow
So in summary, plays are...
Miami (Oh) - Yes at -900
Missouri - Yes at -350
Oklahoma - Yes at +450
Texas - No at -105
Team - YES/NO
Auburn: +390/-600
Miami (Oh): -900/+550
Missouri: -350/+250
Oklahoma: +450/-700
San Diego St: -120/-110 (priced at +105 to win MWC this afternoon)
SMU: -130/+100
Texas: -125/-105
VCU: -300/+245 (priced at +160 to win A10 tournament)
My thoughts on them...
Auburn - lean towards playing no, but priced pretty fairly
Miami (Oh) - I played the yes at -900...steep price, but still undervalued
Missouri - I played the yes at -350...think they have a better than 80% chance
Oklahoma - I played the yes at +450...think they have a better than 20% chance
San Diego St - Seems fairly priced...small chance that they get an at-large, and it's priced in accordingly
SMU - Think it's priced pretty fairly
Texas - I played the no at -105...with San Diego St and an A10 bid stealer hanging out there, tough to see them at better than 40%
VCU - Think it's priced fairly when considering they have a good chance to play for the auto-bid tomorrow
So in summary, plays are...
Miami (Oh) - Yes at -900
Missouri - Yes at -350
Oklahoma - Yes at +450
Texas - No at -105
I'm hoping it drops to 5.5 or 6 so I can play Duke actually (I'll pass a 6.5, but 6 will be a close call).
Thought you might get your wish with the Caleb Foster news, as I really didn't expect him to play.
Duke's Caleb Foster game-time call for Sweet 16 vs. St. John's
Duke guard Caleb Foster will be a game-time decision for the Blue Devils' Sweet 16 matchup against St. John's on Friday, coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday.
www.espn.com
Bittersweet day here...DK retired a casino jackpot yesterday that I've been taking +EV shots at around the clock for the past 13 months. Hate that it's over since it was a windfall...but also nice to have some time (and full nights of sleep) back as my summer soccer prep starts kicking into gear while college hoops winds down.
You took me off that play. It was also starting to feel like that trendy public dog pick.Thought you might get your wish with the Caleb Foster news, as I really didn't expect him to play.
Duke's Caleb Foster game-time call for Sweet 16 vs. St. John's
Duke guard Caleb Foster will be a game-time decision for the Blue Devils' Sweet 16 matchup against St. John's on Friday, coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday.
Bittersweet day here...DK retired a casino jackpot yesterday that I've been taking +EV shots at around the clock for the past 13 months. Hate that it's over since it was a windfall...but also nice to have some time (and full nights of sleep) back as my summer soccer prep starts kicking into gear while college hoops winds down.
What was the casino jackpot and what was the +EV play?
There was a $20k "must hit" jackpot that was a 25 cent add-on to casino bets in NJ Only (at least this one was NJ Only, not sure if they have any elsewhere). .10 went to the pot to increase it...always started at 10k and went up by 10 cents for each play that didn't hit it. If no one hit it by 20k, then the person that made the bet to take it to 20k won it.
Last February, I started attacking it every time it hit 19,970...by this week, I had to start around 19.890 as more and more people joined in. But basically, we found the casino game that played the quickest spins, and were making .20 bets with the .25 jackpot bet, so 45 cents/pop. Usually would get in about 10-15 spins between when I started and it hitting the 20k and someone winning. But this meant that at .45/pop, getting in 10-15 spins, we'd spend around $5-6 dollars each time with something like a 1 in 150 chance of winning $20k (odds were much better earlier last year, much lower recently as more caught on). Last spring, it was rolling past 20k about 2-3 times/day. But recently, it was about 5-6 times/day and the best odds of winning it were in the middle of the night (if it happened in the 2am to 7am range).
But they announced about 3-4 weeks ago that it was ending on 3/25. And sure enough, it went offline around 8:30pm last night.
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So, DK is throwing in 10k each time it resets? Not seeing how that is benefiting them unless it was a marketing tool.
And you were spending around $5-6 to win $20k (3333 to 1), with estimated probability of 1 in 150? Seems crazy. Assuming you hit the 20k, did you get it more than once?
They were collecting .25 from every bet and only increasing the pot by .10, so that extra .15 offset the seeding of the 10k. And with how rarely someone actually hit it before 20k, they were definitely making $ off it in the end...it would have been a -EV play for everyone that was throwing in the .25 pre-approaching 20k, but as it approached 20k, was incredibly +EV.
And yes, I hit it many times. Hit it more frequently last spring/summer (the first time was actually on 3/25/25, a year to the day that they retired it)...but was still hitting it often enough to make it very worthwhile. My last hit was on February 12th. Of course every hit got 1099'd to take a bit of the value away, but an incredible run while it lasted.
@Grant Green - here is a good one when you have time. It's a few years old, but don't think I ever posted it (went back and listened to it again tonight). Edward is the sharpest college hoops guy out there, and runs the sharpest service in the world. And again, he's out of central casting for what most of the sharp betters I know are like (and obviously against every mainstream stereotype).
(Full transparency that I've been on the forums with Ed for 25+ years, used to moderate his forum, and used to do some work for him...but there is no one that I respect more in the industry).
(Full transparency that I've been on the forums with Ed for 25+ years, used to moderate his forum, and used to do some work for him...but there is no one that I respect more in the industry).