BWI Sports Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
It's been a bit. Two misleading box scores from Week 13
Marshall - 24pts, 438yds, 6.3ypp (-3 TO)
App - 26 pts, 276 yds, 3.9ypp
Missou - 6 pts, 301yds, 4.2 ypp (-2 TO)
OU - 17pts, 276yds, 4.5ypp
Semi misleading - ECU should have lost but not by this much
ECU - 24pts, 401yds, 6.1ypp (-3 TO)
UTSA - 58pts, 458yds, 6.3ypp
Marshall - 24pts, 438yds, 6.3ypp (-3 TO)
App - 26 pts, 276 yds, 3.9ypp
Missou - 6 pts, 301yds, 4.2 ypp (-2 TO)
OU - 17pts, 276yds, 4.5ypp
Semi misleading - ECU should have lost but not by this much
ECU - 24pts, 401yds, 6.1ypp (-3 TO)
UTSA - 58pts, 458yds, 6.3ypp
Now 3-3 on the ones I've posted this year. Here is one I'll share for tonight...
Montana/Oakland over 160.5
Montana/Oakland over 160.5
Diego Pavia may not win the Heisman, but he is the betting Heisman in my opinion. Per teamrankings.com, his team is 9-2-1 ATS this season (I assume this is vs closing line). That brings Pavia to 28-10-2 ATS in his last 3 seasons! NMST was 8-5 ATS in his first season, which I didn't include because I wasn't sure how many games he started that season. If he started all of them, his overall ATS record would be 36-15-2.
There were a bunch of misleading box scores this week, but I only noted one.
Auburn 20pts, 411yds, 5.5 ypp (-2 TO)
Alabama - 27 pts, 280yds, 3.8ypp
Unfortunately, I bet Auburn. They should have covered.
There were a bunch of misleading box scores this week, but I only noted one.
Auburn 20pts, 411yds, 5.5 ypp (-2 TO)
Alabama - 27 pts, 280yds, 3.8ypp
Unfortunately, I bet Auburn. They should have covered.
Picking up some slack for @Erial_Lion if anyone needs a little help with some bowl games
He covers PSU at 21:00
He covers PSU at 21:00
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Took a few month break from the board as things got more and more unbearable...but back for the madness of March.
Was 4-3 (+.7 units) on my NCAAB plays. Here is a future for this week...
Liberty to win the CUSA Tournament (+275 at DK)
Really good price on Liberty here...they were leaking oil a bit coming home after they wrapped up the regular season title. Hoping that the week off to reset things and the motivation of needing to win the tourney to dance gives them the boost they need to get playing again like the most talented team in the conference (which they are). Shop around, as they are as low as +175 (BOL) elsewhere.
Was 4-3 (+.7 units) on my NCAAB plays. Here is a future for this week...
Liberty to win the CUSA Tournament (+275 at DK)
Really good price on Liberty here...they were leaking oil a bit coming home after they wrapped up the regular season title. Hoping that the week off to reset things and the motivation of needing to win the tourney to dance gives them the boost they need to get playing again like the most talented team in the conference (which they are). Shop around, as they are as low as +175 (BOL) elsewhere.
Liberty laid another egg, getting upset tonight in the CUSA Quarters. Now -.3 units across the 8 plays this season.
I’ll share one NCAAB for today…
New Mexico -13.5 San Jose St
also some 13’s out there (or a -13.5 -102 at DK)
New Mexico -13.5 San Jose St
also some 13’s out there (or a -13.5 -102 at DK)
I'd need it around -1 or -1.5 to consider it (unless something changes in the next 48 hours)...but suspect you'll be looking at something more like -3 or even -3.5.
Oh well. Good news is I had UMass +270 today and a ticket on Akron (+135) to win the tournament.
DKNJ has the following odds posted for teams to make the NCAA Tournament...
Team - YES/NO
Auburn: +390/-600
Miami (Oh): -900/+550
Missouri: -350/+250
Oklahoma: +450/-700
San Diego St: -120/-110 (priced at +105 to win MWC this afternoon)
SMU: -130/+100
Texas: -125/-105
VCU: -300/+245 (priced at +160 to win A10 tournament)
My thoughts on them...
Auburn - lean towards playing no, but priced pretty fairly
Miami (Oh) - I played the yes at -900...steep price, but still undervalued
Missouri - I played the yes at -350...think they have a better than 80% chance
Oklahoma - I played the yes at +450...think they have a better than 20% chance
San Diego St - Seems fairly priced...small chance that they get an at-large, and it's priced in accordingly
SMU - Think it's priced pretty fairly
Texas - I played the no at -105...with San Diego St and an A10 bid stealer hanging out there, tough to see them at better than 40%
VCU - Think it's priced fairly when considering they have a good chance to play for the auto-bid tomorrow
So in summary, plays are...
Miami (Oh) - Yes at -900
Missouri - Yes at -350
Oklahoma - Yes at +450
Texas - No at -105
Team - YES/NO
Auburn: +390/-600
Miami (Oh): -900/+550
Missouri: -350/+250
Oklahoma: +450/-700
San Diego St: -120/-110 (priced at +105 to win MWC this afternoon)
SMU: -130/+100
Texas: -125/-105
VCU: -300/+245 (priced at +160 to win A10 tournament)
My thoughts on them...
Auburn - lean towards playing no, but priced pretty fairly
Miami (Oh) - I played the yes at -900...steep price, but still undervalued
Missouri - I played the yes at -350...think they have a better than 80% chance
Oklahoma - I played the yes at +450...think they have a better than 20% chance
San Diego St - Seems fairly priced...small chance that they get an at-large, and it's priced in accordingly
SMU - Think it's priced pretty fairly
Texas - I played the no at -105...with San Diego St and an A10 bid stealer hanging out there, tough to see them at better than 40%
VCU - Think it's priced fairly when considering they have a good chance to play for the auto-bid tomorrow
So in summary, plays are...
Miami (Oh) - Yes at -900
Missouri - Yes at -350
Oklahoma - Yes at +450
Texas - No at -105
I'm hoping it drops to 5.5 or 6 so I can play Duke actually (I'll pass a 6.5, but 6 will be a close call).
Thought you might get your wish with the Caleb Foster news, as I really didn't expect him to play.
Duke's Caleb Foster game-time call for Sweet 16 vs. St. John's
Duke guard Caleb Foster will be a game-time decision for the Blue Devils' Sweet 16 matchup against St. John's on Friday, coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday.
www.espn.com
Bittersweet day here...DK retired a casino jackpot yesterday that I've been taking +EV shots at around the clock for the past 13 months. Hate that it's over since it was a windfall...but also nice to have some time (and full nights of sleep) back as my summer soccer prep starts kicking into gear while college hoops winds down.
You took me off that play. It was also starting to feel like that trendy public dog pick.Thought you might get your wish with the Caleb Foster news, as I really didn't expect him to play.
Duke's Caleb Foster game-time call for Sweet 16 vs. St. John's
Duke guard Caleb Foster will be a game-time decision for the Blue Devils' Sweet 16 matchup against St. John's on Friday, coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday.
Bittersweet day here...DK retired a casino jackpot yesterday that I've been taking +EV shots at around the clock for the past 13 months. Hate that it's over since it was a windfall...but also nice to have some time (and full nights of sleep) back as my summer soccer prep starts kicking into gear while college hoops winds down.
What was the casino jackpot and what was the +EV play?
There was a $20k "must hit" jackpot that was a 25 cent add-on to casino bets in NJ Only (at least this one was NJ Only, not sure if they have any elsewhere). .10 went to the pot to increase it...always started at 10k and went up by 10 cents for each play that didn't hit it. If no one hit it by 20k, then the person that made the bet to take it to 20k won it.
Last February, I started attacking it every time it hit 19,970...by this week, I had to start around 19.890 as more and more people joined in. But basically, we found the casino game that played the quickest spins, and were making .20 bets with the .25 jackpot bet, so 45 cents/pop. Usually would get in about 10-15 spins between when I started and it hitting the 20k and someone winning. But this meant that at .45/pop, getting in 10-15 spins, we'd spend around $5-6 dollars each time with something like a 1 in 150 chance of winning $20k (odds were much better earlier last year, much lower recently as more caught on). Last spring, it was rolling past 20k about 2-3 times/day. But recently, it was about 5-6 times/day and the best odds of winning it were in the middle of the night (if it happened in the 2am to 7am range).
But they announced about 3-4 weeks ago that it was ending on 3/25. And sure enough, it went offline around 8:30pm last night.
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So, DK is throwing in 10k each time it resets? Not seeing how that is benefiting them unless it was a marketing tool.
And you were spending around $5-6 to win $20k (3333 to 1), with estimated probability of 1 in 150? Seems crazy. Assuming you hit the 20k, did you get it more than once?
They were collecting .25 from every bet and only increasing the pot by .10, so that extra .15 offset the seeding of the 10k. And with how rarely someone actually hit it before 20k, they were definitely making $ off it in the end...it would have been a -EV play for everyone that was throwing in the .25 pre-approaching 20k, but as it approached 20k, was incredibly +EV.
And yes, I hit it many times. Hit it more frequently last spring/summer (the first time was actually on 3/25/25, a year to the day that they retired it)...but was still hitting it often enough to make it very worthwhile. My last hit was on February 12th. Of course every hit got 1099'd to take a bit of the value away, but an incredible run while it lasted.
@Grant Green - here is a good one when you have time. It's a few years old, but don't think I ever posted it (went back and listened to it again tonight). Edward is the sharpest college hoops guy out there, and runs the sharpest service in the world. And again, he's out of central casting for what most of the sharp betters I know are like (and obviously against every mainstream stereotype).
(Full transparency that I've been on the forums with Ed for 25+ years, used to moderate his forum, and used to do some work for him...but there is no one that I respect more in the industry).
(Full transparency that I've been on the forums with Ed for 25+ years, used to moderate his forum, and used to do some work for him...but there is no one that I respect more in the industry).
Really good video that digs into the type of work that’s needed to be successful. It’s long, but worth it for someone that wants to see what it takes to win.
In the eternal search for an edge, I ended up in several World Cup Survivor pools...there were some guaranteed payouts had pretty big overlays, so figured it was +EV when combining it with my soccer capping and game theory. Interesting pools...pick 4 teams to advance out of the group stage, 2 to win R32, 2 to win R16, 1 quarters, 1 semis, 1 finals. But can never use the same team twice. Picks due before each round (so as you make your R32 picks, you know all the matchups).
Built my Group stage picks mostly around Ivory Coast, Austria, Scotland, and Senegal, with some Uruguay, Egypt, and Japan mixed in. Interested to see how these play out. Biggest one on Splash were $100/entry with just over $2 million to the winner (though I'd guess it'll be split a few ways since there are 16000 entries, unless chaos occurs).
Built my Group stage picks mostly around Ivory Coast, Austria, Scotland, and Senegal, with some Uruguay, Egypt, and Japan mixed in. Interested to see how these play out. Biggest one on Splash were $100/entry with just over $2 million to the winner (though I'd guess it'll be split a few ways since there are 16000 entries, unless chaos occurs).
One for the board for those with access to DK…
Thursday, 6/25
Paraguay/Australia - No Goslscorer (+600)
A play on the u 0.5, and the best price I’ve seen on it. Purely a situational play where both teams benefit from a draw while a loss puts them at risk of going home. The draw is priced accordingly, but +600 is a much better price than we should get for the goalless draw.
Thursday, 6/25
Paraguay/Australia - No Goslscorer (+600)
A play on the u 0.5, and the best price I’ve seen on it. Purely a situational play where both teams benefit from a draw while a loss puts them at risk of going home. The draw is priced accordingly, but +600 is a much better price than we should get for the goalless draw.
Not quite as obvious, but another one where both teams benefit from a 0-0 draw (from DK)...
Saturday, 6/27
Algeria/Austria - No Goalscorer (+650)
Reading a lot of complaints today about what a farce that game was last night...basically 90 minutes of both teams kicking around the ball and no one really taking any chances at all trying to score. Hoping to read those same complaints after the Austria/Algeria game tomorrow night!
Gotta love it when you nail a handicap. Glad I watched the US game instead.
If you bet "no goal scorer", does an own goal count against you? If no, that would make it better than betting under 0.5.
There were a ridiculous amount of arb and off-market opportunities out there today on the HR Derby...crazy how far off the lines were from book to book. Wasn't expecting to be sweating Ben Rice's round 1 HR total tonight, lol.
Perfect timing. Spent last weekend with Phil Steele and now sitting on in the beach in Ocean City NJ with nothing better to do.
Eddie's discussion on Penn State starts at around the 25 minute mark...cliff notes is that he thinks we're overrated.
World Cup betting in U.S. equivalent of '10 Super Bowls'
Sportsbooks and technology providers across the United States sports betting industry report that this year's World Cup produced record handle for a soccer tournament across the board and even rivaled other major prolonged sporting events.
www.espn.com
Personally, I found the lines on World Cup games to be sharper than ever. I didn't bet nearly as much as some prior World Cups (mostly 2018 and 2014...2022 was very low volume due to the bad timing in the winter for me). Bring on the Gold Cup, Olympics, and Women's World Cup where I have a much better edge (though even the Women's WC gets l lot more sharp action now than previously).
Well, I made my first ever PSU national championship bet for a small amount - pizza money as they say. Do I think that PSU has a good shot? Not really. However, Bovada has PSU at 125 to 1. For comparison, Bookmaker and Betonline has it at 55 and 66 to 1 and I think DK is somewhere between. Sports betting is all about finding EV and 125 to 1 is way too high, so I'm compelled to place a small wager.
I'm not alone. Here is a write up by someone I highly respect and follow who bet PSU at 70 to 1.
As the clock runs out on Miami and Indiana in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship, there may be no better time to look forward to the next season.
Thanks to an updated college football calendar, the lone transfer portal window of the season has closed. The ability to gauge roster experience became a little easier with the May portal window dropping off the schedule.
The early returns from TARP, a measurement of "Transfer Activity and Returning Production," show a number of teams hitting the jackpot.
Eleven teams maxed out their returning production thanks to portal additions.
Old blue-blood teams like Oregon and Florida gained as many power rating points as possible with their 2026 rosters, while fresh national faces like Indiana and Texas Tech also cashed in on portal additions.
One team is undergoing massive changes throughout the roster and coaching staff but may be set up to make a College Football Playoff run 11 months from now.
Penn State fired head coach James Franklin in October before administrators missed out on candidates such as BYU's Kilani Sitake.
The Nittany Lions may have landed the best fit possible, as new head coach Matt Campbell is known for developing tight ends.
Penn State has a reputation for producing NFL-ready tight ends, and Campbell used more 12, 13 and 14 personnel than any other FBS program.
The former Iowa State head coach has wasted little time rebuilding Penn State. Campbell brought the recruiting back to life, but his work in the transfer portal will pay dividends next season.
The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the transfer portal rankings. Quarterback Rocco Becht, tight end Benjamin Brahmer and receiver Chase Sowell are just a few of the four-star names coming to State College next season.
Campbell also pulled one of the best defensive coordinators in FBS with D’Anton Lynn coming in from USC.
After spending time with UCLA and the Baltimore Ravens, Lynn made a lifeless USC defense a top-30 unit in nearly every category over the span of two years.
Also assisting the early national title wager is the schedule. No team on Penn State's 2026 schedule is expected to be power-rated over the Nittany Lions.
In summary, Penn State was struggling to find a coach in November, while the recruiting was abysmal after Franklin's departure. Campbell is not only a great fit for the Penn State offense, but the recruiting trail and transfer portal have seen positive impacts since early December.
The hiring of Lynn ensures that the Nittany Lions defense will remain highly efficient and Havoc-minded. The schedule is also conducive to a run, with cupcakes in nonconference play and no Ohio State or Oregon in Big Ten play.
Pick: Penn State to Win 2027 National Championship (+7000)
I'm not alone. Here is a write up by someone I highly respect and follow who bet PSU at 70 to 1.
As the clock runs out on Miami and Indiana in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship, there may be no better time to look forward to the next season.
Thanks to an updated college football calendar, the lone transfer portal window of the season has closed. The ability to gauge roster experience became a little easier with the May portal window dropping off the schedule.
The early returns from TARP, a measurement of "Transfer Activity and Returning Production," show a number of teams hitting the jackpot.
Eleven teams maxed out their returning production thanks to portal additions.
Old blue-blood teams like Oregon and Florida gained as many power rating points as possible with their 2026 rosters, while fresh national faces like Indiana and Texas Tech also cashed in on portal additions.
One team is undergoing massive changes throughout the roster and coaching staff but may be set up to make a College Football Playoff run 11 months from now.
Penn State fired head coach James Franklin in October before administrators missed out on candidates such as BYU's Kilani Sitake.
The Nittany Lions may have landed the best fit possible, as new head coach Matt Campbell is known for developing tight ends.
Penn State has a reputation for producing NFL-ready tight ends, and Campbell used more 12, 13 and 14 personnel than any other FBS program.
The former Iowa State head coach has wasted little time rebuilding Penn State. Campbell brought the recruiting back to life, but his work in the transfer portal will pay dividends next season.
The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the transfer portal rankings. Quarterback Rocco Becht, tight end Benjamin Brahmer and receiver Chase Sowell are just a few of the four-star names coming to State College next season.
Campbell also pulled one of the best defensive coordinators in FBS with D’Anton Lynn coming in from USC.
After spending time with UCLA and the Baltimore Ravens, Lynn made a lifeless USC defense a top-30 unit in nearly every category over the span of two years.
Also assisting the early national title wager is the schedule. No team on Penn State's 2026 schedule is expected to be power-rated over the Nittany Lions.
In summary, Penn State was struggling to find a coach in November, while the recruiting was abysmal after Franklin's departure. Campbell is not only a great fit for the Penn State offense, but the recruiting trail and transfer portal have seen positive impacts since early December.
The hiring of Lynn ensures that the Nittany Lions defense will remain highly efficient and Havoc-minded. The schedule is also conducive to a run, with cupcakes in nonconference play and no Ohio State or Oregon in Big Ten play.
Pick: Penn State to Win 2027 National Championship (+7000)
If you can’t trust a fine, upstanding gentleman like Vegas Dave, who can you trust?
www.reviewjournal.com
Faced with time behind bars, Las Vegas sports betting figure skips court
A judge said he would issue an arrest warrant for Las Vegas sports betting figure David Oancea after Oancea failed to appear in court to be taken into custody.
www.reviewjournal.com
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