It seems that the consensus is that Oklahoma State is the new rival…

HOA242n!

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OKST is vulnerable to regressing to the mean, given the number and impact of breaks listed by Unbiased Football Fan in the other thread.

Also Taylor has a LOT of work to do on their bonus rates. Forrest was the only Poke to crack 50% bonus for the year. Four of them were under 30%, and another was at 30.7%. (Pretty sure Duke can beat 31% in his sleep.)

Neither of these are convenient for the board Chicken Littles.
In a dual meet it could be interesting, but (as stated) winning the national championship is a math problem for Oklahoma State; with the exception of Forrest, they just don't score a lot of bonus points.

PSU has been so dominant recently that it's hard to think that another program has a few guys that probably aren't losing to their PSU counterpart (or anyone) for a few years. I was kind of in the same boat until OSU had almost everything go there way at the NCAAs and still get second by 50 points. The math doesn't really math for OSU to make a serious challenge at the NCAAs with PSUs upper weight dominance and bonus point potential in the near future, unless guys like Lockett and Merrill start scoring.
 

El_Jefe

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I’m interested to see how Vega develops. Guys are going to stop shooting on him and right now he doesn’t have a go to attack. I think next year he takes a loss or 2 and is in a ton of close matches. He is good enough that I think the offense will come but like Blaze I doubt he can just flip a switch and become a huge point scorer
Guessing next year he'll be seeing a lot of underhooks, and the Quentin Wright underhook to cross knee pick. Who can pull that off is another question.

It's obvious that you can't shoot singles into him, and you can't convert a double into a single. Coaches will need to adjust for him.
 

m.knox

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I’m interested to see how Vega develops. Guys are going to stop shooting on him and right now he doesn’t have a go to attack. I think next year he takes a loss or 2 and is in a ton of close matches. He is good enough that I think the offense will come but like Blaze I doubt he can just flip a switch and become a huge point scorer

Agreed. My take is that someone is going to figure out how to scramble with him. It's in the open now. Either that, or get in and figure out how to finish.

What I saw way too much of this tournament was that passive let him shoot in, flip onto your back, grab an ankle, and start rolling around. MM had his hands full with that one guy. It's like wrestling a flopping fish.
 
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HOA242n!

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The bonuses will come. This is DT. He's not teaching the Iowa stall technique. Freshman bonus rates at PSU:

Starocci 25%
RBY 41%
Bartlett 27%
Brooks 43%
Zain 40%
Cenzo 42%

These guys were all < 50% as freshman and (except Bartlett) turned into bonus machines eventually.
This may be the case, but PSUs young guys already are bonus machines. I have a difficult time seeing Lockett and Merrill, specifically, turning into big scorers.
 

PSUbluTX

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The bonuses will come. This is DT. He's not teaching the Iowa stall technique. Freshman bonus rates at PSU:

Starocci 25%
RBY 41%
Bartlett 27%
Brooks 43%
Zain 40%
Cenzo 42%

These guys were all < 50% as freshman and (except Bartlett) turned into bonus machines eventually.
In Your Face Reaction GIF by reactionseditor
 

razpsu

Heisman
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Does anyone know Cole
Mirasola height. I’m just wondering how much more he can grow.
 

jstross

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The bonuses will come. This is DT. He's not teaching the Iowa stall technique. Freshman bonus rates at PSU:

Starocci 25%
RBY 41%
Bartlett 27%
Brooks 43%
Zain 40%
Cenzo 42%

These guys were all < 50% as freshman and (except Bartlett) turned into bonus machines eventually.

What would their bonus rates be with a 3-pt takedown?
Great point. Quick math is it takes 3 less takedowns now to get a major, I think.
 
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BriantheLion

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Let's look at this a different way:

90+%: PSU 2 vs OKST 0
80+%: PSU 0 vs OKST 1
70+%: PSU 4 vs OKST 0
60+%: PSU 0 vs OKST 0
50+%: PSU 2 vs OKST 0
40+%: PSU 1 vs OKST 4
30+%: PSU 1 vs OKST 1
<30%: PSU 0 vs OKST 4
So 8-1 over 50%…2-9 under!
 
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donboy6499

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Seidel going 141 next year with Bassett and Henson in the lineup would send Gaj to the bench. Seriously doubt this is happening.
Dillon Campbell
Aaron Seidel
Bo Bassett
Collin Gaj
Caleb Henson
Melvin Miller
Sergio Desiante

That is a nice lineup to 174, and leaves no space for Noah Nininger for a year.
 

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
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Dillon Campbell
Aaron Seidel
Bo Bassett
Collin Gaj
Caleb Henson
Melvin Miller
Sergio Desiante

That is a nice lineup to 174, and leaves no space for Noah Nininger for a year.
This means either Campbell cuts to 125 and displaces Ventresca, or Henson goes 165.

Neither seems likely.
 

Corby2

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Dillon Campbell
Aaron Seidel
Bo Bassett
Collin Gaj
Caleb Henson
Melvin Miller
Sergio Desiante

That is a nice lineup to 174, and leaves no space for Noah Nininger for a year.
Campbell going 125 is interesting. Ventresca has 1 more year as well. Some rumors he might portal but just rumors as far as I know
 
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donboy6499

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Campbell going 125 is interesting. Ventresca has 1 more year as well. Some rumors he might portal but just rumors as far as I know
Interesting that Ventresca still has another, quite a bind at the lightweights/middleweights.
 
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RockyChi

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Feb 4, 2026
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Dillon Campbell
Aaron Seidel
Bo Bassett
Collin Gaj
Caleb Henson
Melvin Miller
Sergio Desiante

That is a nice lineup to 174, and leaves no space for Noah Nininger for a year.

Might be some cause for concern if say both Ferraris transferred to V Tech. No real rumors about it or anything but some guy posted about it.

Nebraska would probably like to get Ziola into lineup
 
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5q

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Next year OSU cuts the gap in half, we should be close to 180 again but they will get both more bonus, and a couple more AAs. I think we 'cruise' to a nervous 20-30 point win.

The year after? They will arguably have 6 finalists and we will have lost from this year's team Levi, SVN, and Mitch.

Then the year after that Luke, Kasak, Rocco and Barr.

Our pipeline is strong but there are gaps. Anyone who doesn't think OSU significantly ups their bonus as those kids mature is smoking something.

Come 27/28 it's on, whether you want to admit it or not, and at least for one year after 28/29 doesn't look in our favor from today's POV.

Tons can change between now and then, but the 'easy years' are soon behind us. It's good for the sport but bad for my heart.

PS - did I say that I am still physically sick over PJ's screw job?
the years you think we lose 3 people and decline, Cael will hit the portal for gamers.
 

El_Jefe

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Might be some cause for concern if say both Ferraris transferred to V Tech. No real rumors about it or anything but some guy posted about it.

Nebraska would probably like to get Ziola into lineup
Two more 6th placers might get VT past Iowa.
 

Efejle

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If Bo Bassett goes 141 he needs to beat Vega or Jax to win a title. No way around it. Who ya got?
 

RockyChi

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Feb 4, 2026
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Two more 6th placers might get VT past Iowa.
While they might not be very popular that’s around 30 NCAA points there added to very dangerous lower and middle weights

it would be a legit threat, take Franklin and wrestling title lol
 

Psalm 1 guy

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Guessing next year he'll be seeing a lot of underhooks, and the Quentin Wright underhook to cross knee pick. Who can pull that off is another question.

It's obvious that you can't shoot singles into him, and you can't convert a double into a single. Coaches will need to adjust for him.
I'm thinking a duck under will be his kryptonite, especially late in a match.
 

RockyChi

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Feb 4, 2026
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133 141 174 are the only questions. And nobody knows yet what will happen with those weights not even the athletes or the coaches yet.
165 is a question, Mesenbrink could move up to 174. It doesn’t matter what his plans would be for Olympics. He can probably still bonus the field as an undersized 174.

Unless Henckel can beat Duke or James he might be odd man out anyway long term. So just trying to work him in at expense of your best possible scoring lineup would be counterproductive
 
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Efejle

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165 is a question, Mesenbrink could move up to 174. It doesn’t matter what his plans would be for Olympics. He can probably still bonus the field as an undersized 174.

Unless Henckel can beat Duke or James he might be odd man out anyway long term. So just trying to work him in at expense of your best possible scoring lineup would be counterproductive
It might turn out that the best possible scoring line up actually is in line with working some guys in?
 
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Corby2

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165 is a question, Mesenbrink could move up to 174. It doesn’t matter what his plans would be for Olympics. He can probably still bonus the field as an undersized 174.

Unless Henckel can beat Duke or James he might be odd man out anyway long term. So just trying to work him in at expense of your best possible scoring lineup would be counterproductive
I don't see Mitchell moving up but who knows it's over 7 months away . I would bet $ that right now Duke weighs more then Mitchell
 

WV lion

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165 is a question, Mesenbrink could move up to 174. It doesn’t matter what his plans would be for Olympics. He can probably still bonus the field as an undersized 174.

Unless Henckel can beat Duke or James he might be odd man out anyway long term. So just trying to work him in at expense of your best possible scoring lineup would be counterproductive
Why does everyone want to move mesenbrink up? Don't think he is cutting much to make 165.
 

RockyChi

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Feb 4, 2026
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Why does everyone want to move mesenbrink up? Don't think he is cutting much to make 165.
I just think it’s a possibility

if you have a guy that can bonus the field undersized it can increase your mathematical expectation to bump him up and put Duke at 165

Duke (20) + Mitch (25) > Mitch (25) + Henckel (12)….or something like that
 
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RockyChi

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Feb 4, 2026
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What would the result of a dual be?
Okie St I'll give them 2 at 133 and 141. Penn State should win 125, 149, 157,165,174,184, 197. 285 toss up.
Next year Penn State has to replace 174. So how do they close the gap?
Agreed, we frequently hear “Penn State might not want to admit it, but Ok State is a real threat” when actually I think the gap widens.

A lot went exactly right for OK state with RobaDuke and Merrill. Next year at NCAA a Penn State 185 team score versus 115 for OK State would do nicely to quiet Stilly and outsider glazing. Just give me some backward movement.

something like Ono beating Jax would be the ultimate cherry on top
 

Efejle

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Let's do this:

LL dec Sprately
Ono dec Rainey
Jax maj. Dec Desmond
Vega dec SVN
Kasak dec Robideau
Mitchell techs anyone
Henckel by dec
Rocco dec Ryder
Barr maj Dec Panda
Ross vs Cole toss up