OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms

RULoyal

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Dan Zarrow

 

DHajekRC1984

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A very nice little sprinkle of snowfall right now on top of a 1/2" dusting here in Rocktown (Ringoes area). Folks flying on Rt. 31 as always. Need a little more to supply my Vodka Snow Cone Slushies for the day though.

Edit: and just like that its a winter wonderland out there..
 
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bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Advisories extended to Hunterdon and upper Bucks/western Montco and Somerset might need one too. 1"+ on the ground in the blue counties and the WAA's say another 2" on the way. Snowing decently even here with a dusting now, which is way earlier than modeled.

View attachment 1147934
Things have lightened up to a snizzle and at 32 in Belle Mead looks like nothing really going to be happening today in my parts. Temps are rising as the additional precip moves through
 

RULoyal

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So. Bruns. - had some flurries earlier. Nada happening for the last hour or so.
 

RU848789

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Snow just picked up again after an hour lull and it's coming down nicely now, at a surprising 33F and accumulating (we had a 1/4" dusting before). Latest HRRR shows stead snow for the next few hours with about 1" to come (let's see if it stays this cold). 2"+ reported in most of the WWA counties and in northern Somerset.
 

RUDave_01

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I've got a fair amount that has been sticking here in Readington (31 degrees). It's currently falling at a decent clip too.
 

RU848789

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Big all day plans, so probably not much posting today. Today still looks the same as the post above, as snow is starting to move in now for NW areas, but Sunday is looking much snowier than it did yesterday, as the Euro (and this was big as it had not shown much snow for our area for days and has a reputation, still, of being the best model, despite the much newer AIFS now having better verification scores), NAM, and GFS all caved to the consistently snowier AI models (from the Euro and GFS), with only the UK/ICON being non-snowy holdouts (but even they increased a bit).

So here's my bottom line take, fwiw. Looks like 2-4" N of 78/NW of 287 today (as per the WWA's) with maybe a slushy inch along 95 and nada SE of 95 due to warm temps. And for Sunday, with the significant moves NW for the GFS, NAM, NAM3km, RRFS, and finally the Euro, joining the already NW AIFS and AIGFS (and ignoring the paltry precip for the UK/ICON), it's looking like 2-4" from 95 to the coast with maybe 1-2" NW of 95 with an upside of 3-6" from 95 to the coast and a downside of 1-3" from 95 to the coast. Would like to see 12Z not backtrack to have higher confidence in the Sunday numbers. Now I'm getting excited for snow. Will keep my forecast of 1" of slush at my house in Metuchen for Saturday and up my forecast for my house for Sunday from 1.5" to 3.1".

FWIW, here is what the models are showing for Edison for Saturday (Kuchera, since it'll be 34-36F for most of the snow) and Sunday (10:1 ratio as it should be colder with temps in the 31-33F range). These number are fairly similar from about NB to NYC along 95 with a bit less towards Philly. The Saturday numbers are nada SE of 95 to the coast, while for Sunday they're 1-2" greater for most models at the coast vs 95 (north of Toms River; south of there, mixing becomes an issue). Let's see what 12Z brings.

Snowfall on Sat (Kuchera)/Sun (10:1 ratio)
Euro: 0.4"/1.9"
AIFS (Euro AI): 0.5"/2.8"
AIGFS: 0.5"/3.0"
GFS: 1.3" (is 1.7" at 10:1)/3.6"
NAM: 0.7"/4.1"
RGEM: 0.8"/2.6"
NAM3km: 0.3"/3.2"
RRFSA (new NAM): 0.1"/5.0" (but Kuchera shows 3.1" here - much larger deviation than for most models)
HRDPS: 0.6"/2.4"
UK: 1.0"/1.2"
ICON: 1.0"/0.6"
Every 12Z model, so far, is showing a general 2-4" for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region tomorrow including the whole 95 corridor with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and right at the coast south of maybe Pt. Pleasant (due to mixing). Some are showing up to 5"+ and the ICON and UK both caved finally so expect to see advisories go up for most by 3-4 pm (when the current ones will expire - this way no confusion).
 
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DHajekRC1984

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So. Bruns. - had some flurries earlier. Nada happening for the last hour or so.
good to know thanks. I care for an 87 YO man over there in Monmouth Junction and have to get the snow removed for him if more significant. His caregiver can handle a slight shoveling but 2+ means a snow removal crew. (i'm 50 mins away and not in a spot I can see or help).
 
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DHajekRC1984

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Every 12Z model, so far, is showing a general 2-4" for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region tomorrow including the whole 95 corridor with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and right at the coast south of maybe Pt. Pleasant (due to mixing). Some are showing up to 5"+ and the ICON caved finally so expect to see advisories go up for most by 3-4 pm (when the current ones will expire - this way no confusion).
also good to know as my wife was planning on a trip down from West Jersey to Millville to see out daughter. Thinking the trip may be at risk. This came from nowhere (tomorrow).
 
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RU848789

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  1. Holy crap - big gorgeous dendrites coming down now - 3/8" in the last 20 minutes. Anyone want to practice disc golf putting?
    Image



 
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bac2therac

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Coastals are very difficult to forecast wide swaths of snow region wide..thats the caveat here also any further west movement creates precip type issues
 

RULoyal

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good to know thanks. I care for an 87 YO man over there in Monmouth Junction and have to get the snow removed for him if more significant. His caregiver can handle a slight shoveling but 2+ means a snow removal crew. (i'm 50 mins away and not in a spot I can see or help).
Snowing pretty good now but not even an inch of accumulation on the sidewalk
 

RU848789

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Wow, deathband 2026! We're up to 1" which has all fallen in the last 40 minutes - legitimate heavy snow and dynamic cooling FTW as it dropped from 33F to 32F. And it's even accumulating on the streets, which is a surprise.

1768670870474.png

1768670886386.png
 

e5fdny

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In my occupation with other things than this particular Board I have allowed this to continue.

But the rule still stands, if it’s something significant a stand alone thread.
 

29PAS

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Beautiful, heavy snow for the last 30 min or so in lower mid-town Manhattan.
 

mdk02

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Did a round trip from Bergen County to Nyack this morning mainly on the Palisades. The farther north the snowier it got. An inch down a hour ago. Palisades in good shape but side roads getting messy.
 

RU848789

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Up to 1.75" - huge overperformer and still snowing moderately at 32F; guessing we'll hit at least 2.5" judging by the radar.

Also, every 12Z model is now snowy, so expecting a general 2-4" for the region with an upside of 3-6" possible (lowest amounts well NW of 95 and far SENJ). Expect advisories to go up shortly. No updated NWS maps yet. The NYC mets can suck it, lol.
 

bac2therac

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Up to 1.75" - huge overperformer and still snowing moderately at 32F; guessing we'll hit at least 2.5" judging by the radar.

Also, every 12Z model is now snowy, so expecting a general 2-4" for the region with an upside of 3-6" possible (lowest amounts well NW of 95 and far SENJ). Expect advisories to go up shortly. No updated NWS maps yet. The NYC mets can suck it, lol.
Really? Tell ny mets who are professionals and know more than you to suck it?

More like the models have been atrocious across the board with consistency and temperatures
 

MadRU

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Don’t have exact measurements but has to be close to two inches here in Linden, and still snowing.
 

DJ Spanky

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So this is really overperforming here, even though the temps have gone up to 34°. Take a measurement soon, looks like 3-4" down.
 
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bac2therac

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About 2 inches here and its over

33 and will rise a few more..very wet snow so some melting before any refreeze after 8 pm
 

DJ Spanky

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So measured around 3 inches of snow, but it appears it's already settling/melting.



Yesterday this looked like this:

 
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Section124

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About 3” here in NW Bergen. My wife and SIL’s were out and the roads are very slippery. A lot of accidents. I figured the roads would be fine and they are not.
 
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DHajekRC1984

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This thing seems to be over performing in No. Plfd. Big *** dendrites. Always wanted to use dendrite in a sentence.
When is the last year that actual snowfall has exceeded? I mean these are not the killer storms but we're definitely getting more than less this year.
 

Knight Shift

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2 inches maybe but not 4

But all the forecasts from 8am had about an inch..no forecaster was talking about death bands of an inch an hour for 2 hours
Take the L, here.

At the Monmouth/Ocean border, had to cut my mountain bike ride short-started with a driving snow, to sleet, changed to rain. Was good with the snow/sleet, but with the rain, trails were getting muddy, and it is bad form to make ruts when the trails are muddy.
 
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