What about us?2-4" today for many in this region and 2-4" tomorrow (as per most of the 6Z models and early 12Z models, with potential for up to 5-6") is not minor. The words were deserved.
What about us?2-4" today for many in this region and 2-4" tomorrow (as per most of the 6Z models and early 12Z models, with potential for up to 5-6") is not minor. The words were deserved.
Things have lightened up to a snizzle and at 32 in Belle Mead looks like nothing really going to be happening today in my parts. Temps are rising as the additional precip moves throughAdvisories extended to Hunterdon and upper Bucks/western Montco and Somerset might need one too. 1"+ on the ground in the blue counties and the WAA's say another 2" on the way. Snowing decently even here with a dusting now, which is way earlier than modeled.
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2-4 isnt happening in my parts sorry2-4" today for many in this region and 2-4" tomorrow (as per most of the 6Z models and early 12Z models, with potential for up to 5-6") is not minor. The words were deserved.
Very realistic for today and good approach for tomorrow but may have to be bumped with modelling coming in strongerDan Zarrow
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Every 12Z model, so far, is showing a general 2-4" for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region tomorrow including the whole 95 corridor with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and right at the coast south of maybe Pt. Pleasant (due to mixing). Some are showing up to 5"+ and the ICON and UK both caved finally so expect to see advisories go up for most by 3-4 pm (when the current ones will expire - this way no confusion).Big all day plans, so probably not much posting today. Today still looks the same as the post above, as snow is starting to move in now for NW areas, but Sunday is looking much snowier than it did yesterday, as the Euro (and this was big as it had not shown much snow for our area for days and has a reputation, still, of being the best model, despite the much newer AIFS now having better verification scores), NAM, and GFS all caved to the consistently snowier AI models (from the Euro and GFS), with only the UK/ICON being non-snowy holdouts (but even they increased a bit).
So here's my bottom line take, fwiw. Looks like 2-4" N of 78/NW of 287 today (as per the WWA's) with maybe a slushy inch along 95 and nada SE of 95 due to warm temps. And for Sunday, with the significant moves NW for the GFS, NAM, NAM3km, RRFS, and finally the Euro, joining the already NW AIFS and AIGFS (and ignoring the paltry precip for the UK/ICON), it's looking like 2-4" from 95 to the coast with maybe 1-2" NW of 95 with an upside of 3-6" from 95 to the coast and a downside of 1-3" from 95 to the coast. Would like to see 12Z not backtrack to have higher confidence in the Sunday numbers. Now I'm getting excited for snow. Will keep my forecast of 1" of slush at my house in Metuchen for Saturday and up my forecast for my house for Sunday from 1.5" to 3.1".
FWIW, here is what the models are showing for Edison for Saturday (Kuchera, since it'll be 34-36F for most of the snow) and Sunday (10:1 ratio as it should be colder with temps in the 31-33F range). These number are fairly similar from about NB to NYC along 95 with a bit less towards Philly. The Saturday numbers are nada SE of 95 to the coast, while for Sunday they're 1-2" greater for most models at the coast vs 95 (north of Toms River; south of there, mixing becomes an issue). Let's see what 12Z brings.
Snowfall on Sat (Kuchera)/Sun (10:1 ratio)
Euro: 0.4"/1.9"
AIFS (Euro AI): 0.5"/2.8"
AIGFS: 0.5"/3.0"
GFS: 1.3" (is 1.7" at 10:1)/3.6"
NAM: 0.7"/4.1"
RGEM: 0.8"/2.6"
NAM3km: 0.3"/3.2"
RRFSA (new NAM): 0.1"/5.0" (but Kuchera shows 3.1" here - much larger deviation than for most models)
HRDPS: 0.6"/2.4"
UK: 1.0"/1.2"
ICON: 1.0"/0.6"
good to know thanks. I care for an 87 YO man over there in Monmouth Junction and have to get the snow removed for him if more significant. His caregiver can handle a slight shoveling but 2+ means a snow removal crew. (i'm 50 mins away and not in a spot I can see or help).So. Bruns. - had some flurries earlier. Nada happening for the last hour or so.
also good to know as my wife was planning on a trip down from West Jersey to Millville to see out daughter. Thinking the trip may be at risk. This came from nowhere (tomorrow).Every 12Z model, so far, is showing a general 2-4" for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region tomorrow including the whole 95 corridor with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and right at the coast south of maybe Pt. Pleasant (due to mixing). Some are showing up to 5"+ and the ICON caved finally so expect to see advisories go up for most by 3-4 pm (when the current ones will expire - this way no confusion).
Snowing pretty good now but not even an inch of accumulation on the sidewalkgood to know thanks. I care for an 87 YO man over there in Monmouth Junction and have to get the snow removed for him if more significant. His caregiver can handle a slight shoveling but 2+ means a snow removal crew. (i'm 50 mins away and not in a spot I can see or help).
This did not age well2-4 isnt happening in my parts sorry
This did not age well. Still amazed they always screw up the forecast though…
Really? Tell ny mets who are professionals and know more than you to suck it?Up to 1.75" - huge overperformer and still snowing moderately at 32F; guessing we'll hit at least 2.5" judging by the radar.
Also, every 12Z model is now snowy, so expecting a general 2-4" for the region with an upside of 3-6" possible (lowest amounts well NW of 95 and far SENJ). Expect advisories to go up shortly. No updated NWS maps yet. The NYC mets can suck it, lol.
And we have no water here in Southern Nevada. Lake Mead and Lake Powell at historic low levels.80 degrees in SoCal this week. Love global warming!
When is the last year that actual snowfall has exceeded? I mean these are not the killer storms but we're definitely getting more than less this year.This thing seems to be over performing in No. Plfd. Big *** dendrites. Always wanted to use dendrite in a sentence.
Take the L, here.2 inches maybe but not 4
But all the forecasts from 8am had about an inch..no forecaster was talking about death bands of an inch an hour for 2 hours