OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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How are you going to enjoy this awesome winter weather? 50s most of next week! What a great thread.
#TKRjinx
#weathermodelssuck
Great weather to get outside next week with low to mid 50s late in the week..albeit raindrops at times. Wednesday and Thursday look dry and 50 so take to the walking trails
well if that thread title does not need to be be fixed...yes a cold first week with a dusting of snow but week 2 will be pretty warm and not conducive to any snow..did the OP just abdicate as the warmer pattern was advertised and yes post day 10 we do move back to garden variety cold
forecasted highs central jersey for next 10 days before another cold shot sends temp back to mid 30s
1/6 42
1/7 50
1/8 52
1/9 54
1/10 60
1/11 47
1/12 40
1/13 44
1/14 40
1/15 38
forecasted highs central jersey for next 10 days before another cold shot sends temp back to mid 30s
1/6 42
1/7 50
1/8 52
1/9 54
1/10 60
1/11 47
1/12 40
1/13 44
1/14 40
1/15 38
Coming colder than normal and potentially snowier than normal pattern for 1/15-1/31 (2nd half of Jan) for our area?
Our 3-4 day major warm-up with temps >10F above normal is now over and while the next 4 days will still be a bit above normal (highs in the mid/upper 40s), a colder pattern returns around 1/15 and will likely last through at least the end of January if not through the first week or so of February. Highs are likely to generally be in the 30s from about 1/15 through 1/23 and average below normal through the first week of February as per the CPC graphic below - so below normal (with a few warmer days here and there possible), but no obviously brutal cold conditions.
In addition, it appears that we'll have a more active storm track (vs. the first 2 weeks of Jan) emanating from the subtropical jet, at times augmented by northern system energy, which will likely mean chances of wintry weather. The first of these is around 1/15-16, where we're seeing everything from nada to a major winter storm (snow inland and maybe a mix for 95/coast) across the models. At 5-6 days out in a complex setup, we just don't know exactly how this will play out, but it could be wintry. After that there look to be chances around 1/18-19 and a few beyond there, although that's getting into fantasy land.
This kind of pattern favors above normal snowfall for at least the second half of January, as indicated by the ensemble means (average of dozens of runs of each model to explore variability) showing about 2-4" (which often translates to more than that as these means take into account many zero-snow outcomes) or so of snow from 1/15-1/25 - still no guarantee, but a strong signal for snow. FYI for half of January, "normal" snowfall would be about 3.5" in Philly up to 4.5" in NYC.
So far this winter, I've talked about two patterns that looked to be cold and potentially snowy. The first one was the first half of December, which delivered very cold conditions and well above normal snowfall for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region, mostly from the 12/14 snowstorm. The second one focused on the first 2-3 weeks of January, which featured very cold conditions for the first 6 days, but that has been largely cancelled by the warmth since then and next week's modest warmth and we've had very little snow, so far and that will remain through at least 1/14. Sometimes the patterns don't deliver.
So, let's see how today's post and discussion of a colder than normal and potentially snowier than normal pattern for the second half of January turns out. Never any guarantees, but at least there are some potential winter storms out there to track (that really didn't happen for the first half of January, as it just remained too dry). Below is what Walt Drag, esteemed retired NWS meteorologist had to say this morning about the 3rd week in Jan. The NWS isn't saying much about the possible storm on 1/15, yet, which is not surprising, given the high uncertainty this far out. The link below is to the general discussion on AmericanWx.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/38/
Walt Drag, 1/10/26: Entire northeast USA 15th-18th: Wintry hazard events. Uncertainty continues but I find it hard to believe that there won't be at least one , 1-3" event within this 4 day period from just north of Atlanta through Asheville NC and then up the I95 corridor into NYS-New England. Broad and uncertain focus, but seems to be the 15th-16th for this entire region with snow interior and rain/ice/ snow coasts. This could result in travel issues.Those of us who have important travel plans around the 15th-16th should monitor forecast updates daily. Going to get cold for a day, even in the Deep South. The pattern after the 18th evolves into brief significant cold outbreaks with some snow northern USA including the northeast, with a fairly serious wind driven cold outbreak from MD-PA-NJ expected roughly near the 20th.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/813...027&hoisted_section_header_type=recently_seen
Our 3-4 day major warm-up with temps >10F above normal is now over and while the next 4 days will still be a bit above normal (highs in the mid/upper 40s), a colder pattern returns around 1/15 and will likely last through at least the end of January if not through the first week or so of February. Highs are likely to generally be in the 30s from about 1/15 through 1/23 and average below normal through the first week of February as per the CPC graphic below - so below normal (with a few warmer days here and there possible), but no obviously brutal cold conditions.
In addition, it appears that we'll have a more active storm track (vs. the first 2 weeks of Jan) emanating from the subtropical jet, at times augmented by northern system energy, which will likely mean chances of wintry weather. The first of these is around 1/15-16, where we're seeing everything from nada to a major winter storm (snow inland and maybe a mix for 95/coast) across the models. At 5-6 days out in a complex setup, we just don't know exactly how this will play out, but it could be wintry. After that there look to be chances around 1/18-19 and a few beyond there, although that's getting into fantasy land.
This kind of pattern favors above normal snowfall for at least the second half of January, as indicated by the ensemble means (average of dozens of runs of each model to explore variability) showing about 2-4" (which often translates to more than that as these means take into account many zero-snow outcomes) or so of snow from 1/15-1/25 - still no guarantee, but a strong signal for snow. FYI for half of January, "normal" snowfall would be about 3.5" in Philly up to 4.5" in NYC.
So far this winter, I've talked about two patterns that looked to be cold and potentially snowy. The first one was the first half of December, which delivered very cold conditions and well above normal snowfall for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region, mostly from the 12/14 snowstorm. The second one focused on the first 2-3 weeks of January, which featured very cold conditions for the first 6 days, but that has been largely cancelled by the warmth since then and next week's modest warmth and we've had very little snow, so far and that will remain through at least 1/14. Sometimes the patterns don't deliver.
So, let's see how today's post and discussion of a colder than normal and potentially snowier than normal pattern for the second half of January turns out. Never any guarantees, but at least there are some potential winter storms out there to track (that really didn't happen for the first half of January, as it just remained too dry). Below is what Walt Drag, esteemed retired NWS meteorologist had to say this morning about the 3rd week in Jan. The NWS isn't saying much about the possible storm on 1/15, yet, which is not surprising, given the high uncertainty this far out. The link below is to the general discussion on AmericanWx.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/38/
Walt Drag, 1/10/26: Entire northeast USA 15th-18th: Wintry hazard events. Uncertainty continues but I find it hard to believe that there won't be at least one , 1-3" event within this 4 day period from just north of Atlanta through Asheville NC and then up the I95 corridor into NYS-New England. Broad and uncertain focus, but seems to be the 15th-16th for this entire region with snow interior and rain/ice/ snow coasts. This could result in travel issues.Those of us who have important travel plans around the 15th-16th should monitor forecast updates daily. Going to get cold for a day, even in the Deep South. The pattern after the 18th evolves into brief significant cold outbreaks with some snow northern USA including the northeast, with a fairly serious wind driven cold outbreak from MD-PA-NJ expected roughly near the 20th.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/813...027&hoisted_section_header_type=recently_seen
Like most warm-ups this winter, the predictions were too high, but it has certainly been above normal the past several days and I took full advantage. It will also stay a bit above normal for the next 4 days, so as I just posted the first half of January looks like it'll fail on being colder than normal and will definitely be less snowy than normal. It happens, although the first half of December predicted cold/snowy pattern did deliver. But now we get to see if the 2nd half is colder and snowier than normal as most models are indicating. We'll see...
Also, I find mild winter weather to be very boring and I'm not on this board that much anymore, so I didn't see much point in posting. However, I always post an assessment of how the pattern posts perform. Still too early on the first half of Jan for the data, but almost a lock to fail, as I said above.
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Can't believe it's gonna be cold in January. What the hell is the world coming to?
Rain is a possible outcome - one among many almost 5 days out; NWS discussion hits on the possibilities well, so it would be foolish to predict any one outcome yet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
655 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Towards Wednesday night into Thursday the longwave pattern amplifies
as the ridge out west sharpens, and the trough in the east amplifies
in turn. This amplification is supported by the consensus of global
NWP and AI guidance. At this time it remains difficult to time and
quantify individual wave packets, and thus the timing, position and
strength of any coastal storm development. Much of the guidance is
suggesting the frontal boundary slowing and the development of low
pressure with the amplification of the pattern with the upper level
flow becoming more or less parallel to the front. At a minimum, a
period of light to moderate precip has a good chance of occurring
with a quasi-anafront type of set up even if coastal development
gets going too late for our area. Enough ensemble members of the
ECMWF and the GEFS indicate the risk of sfc low development
potentially stronger, and further west and closer to the coast
compared to their deterministic counterparts. Also the DWD
/ ICON deterministic is too close for comfort with the bundling of
upper level energy, with any jog further north / northwest
bringing sfc low development closer to the region. Suffice it to
say there remains a chance of impactful precipitation, as
precipitation type remains uncertain late Thursday and early
Thursday evening, but likely going frozen into Thursday night.
Had to raise PoPs Thursday night into the first half of Friday
as the NBM appears rather lost with PoPs appearing unusually low
given the synoptic set up. With uncertainty remaining high, any
impacts remain unknown at this time.
So, the threat for Thursday is looking like nada to minor with maybe up to 1" of snow Thursday morning, especially N/W of 95 (after rain on Weds night changes to snow), as the two pieces of energy are not going to "phase" (and form a stronger coastal storm) as some models were predicting a few days ago. Similar look for Sunday with maybe some light snow (up to 1"?). After Sunday is when it should turn colder with it might not getting above 40F again through the end of January (or maybe just a day here or there) and the chance of some very cold air for the last week in January. In addition, the period after about 1/23 is showing strong signals for snow, as per the ensemble forecasts, but this is day 10+, so while confidence in snow for this period is higher than normal, it's way too early for high confidence in that (back in late Dec the models were quite bullish on snow/cold for days 7-15 and that obviously fizzled). Again, it's easier to predict cold than snow this far out.
Mid 20s for highs a couple days next week. Enjoy the 50 degree weather today and tomorrow
Drove the SS in today as my car's in the shop - could have taken my wife's car but since the roads have been pretty much cleared of salt, and I wanted to run the SS, put fresh gas in it and get it hot, decided to bring it in. Maybe drive it tomorrow, then back into hibernation it goes.
If y'all want to see the greatest digital snowstorm ever, wait a few hours and the 18Z GFS will be all over social media. 18-36" in our area and 75" in Pittsburgh, lol, followed by sub-zero temps for most of our area. Starting only 10 days from now, lol. It's a fantasy, but it is indicative of the potential this pattern has for cold and some significant snow.
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Lots of minor snow threats coming up. Will likely be 1/2" or so by sunrise tomorrow for Sussex/Warren/W Passaic and up to 1"+ in the Poconos and far NW Sussex and the Hudson Valley; could be some dustings down to the 95 corridor.
Then there's a decent chance of a 1/2-1" during Saturday from late morning into early evening, but for areas along 95 and towards the coast this would likely only be on colder surfaces with temps in the 32-34F range (and there might not be any accumulation); for areas N of 78 with colder temps accumulations are more likely.
And finally, there's the chance of some snow on Sunday afternoon/night with wide divergence of modeled outcomes from essentially just flurries to an inch or so to several inches of snow, depending on the model. It's still 4 days out, so we need more time to see how this one shakes out.
After Sunday, the real cold hits with temps likely to stay below 35F from then through the end of January, with some days in there with highs in the mid-20s - and there are a couple of possible winter storms being modeled at times, during that time, but way too far out to speculate on. It's winter.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/54/#comment-7904340
Update on the potential for a bit of snow on Saturday (an inch?) with a fairly weak system and maybe a bit more (or less) on Sunday with a stronger storm.
An approaching clipper style system from the Great Lakes is likely to produce maybe 1/2-1" of snow along and especially NW of 95 (and especially N of 78) on Saturday morning into the early afternoon with little to no snow towards the coast, due to temps being above 32F, i.e., "white rain" where snow is falling but not accumulating. Note that there are a couple of models showing up to 2" not far NW of 95 and N of 78, where temps should be around 31-32F, allowing for easier accumulation, although roads are unlikely to be impacted except maybe in some locations before about 9 am.
And then there's the chance of a coastal low impacting our area Sunday morning into the afternoon and that storm has both a higher ceiling, as it will be more powerful with more precip, but it also has a lower floor, as the track is critical for our area, as it always is and there are a couple of models showing little to no snow for everyone, a couple showing maybe 1-2" for most, especially along/SE of 95 and a couple showing several inches of snow for 95 and the coast and even a few inches NW. Of particular interest is that the two main AI models (the Euro and GFS AI versions) and the CMC/RGEM and RRFS ("new" NAM) are in the few inches or more camp, while the non-AI Euro and GFS, the UK and the NAM are in the little to no snow camp (AI vs. non-AI especially). Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.
By far the biggest question here is the track and how much precip is delivered, as it should be cold enough for snow everywhere. A little early for any confidence in a forecast, as the main pieces of energy are still off the coast of North America and now well sampled; in addition, NOAA is planning a flight to gather more data, so hopefully, we'll have a lot better handle on this event by this time tomorrow night. See the AmericanWx thread link and the NWS discussion link, below, as well as an excerpt from that discussion.
As I mentioned the past few days, after Sunday, the real cold hits with temps likely to stay below 35F from then through the end of January, with some days in there with highs in the mid-20s - and there are a couple of possible winter storms being modeled at times, during that time, but way too far out to speculate on. But it is worth noting that the ensemble runs of the major global models (Euro, CMC, GFS and AIFS) are showing mean snowfall over the next 15 days, which is well above normal (like 3-5/4-7" depending on the model) - not a guarantee, but a strong indicator the pattern could deliver snow.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62510-storm-potential-january-18th-19th/page/10/
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=3&highlight=off&glossary=1
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1236 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple rounds of precipitation possible this
weekend, some of which could fall as snow. Continuing to watch
an area of low pressure expected to develop off the coast.
A longwave trough sets up over the Eastern US, with a series of
shortwaves moving over the area, resulting in some unsettled
weather this weekend. The first system looks rather weak and
should move through on Saturday. Precipitation looks to start as
mainly snow with onset occurring near or just after daybreak
when temperatures are at their overnight lows. Weak warm air
advection and daytime heating will quickly result in
temperatures increasing though, transitioning to mainly rain for
everyone except the northern Lehigh Valley, northwest New
Jersey, and southern Poconos, where snow could hang on longer.
Precipitation should be rather light though. Snowfall amounts up
to an inch are possible in the Poconos, with up to half an inch
possible north and west of the I-95 corridor. Nothing more than
a trace for areas along and south/east of I-95. QPF amounts are
less than a tenth of an inch across the region.
The second more organized system has more high-end potential
but also could end up being nothing, depending on the track of
an area of low pressure offshore Sunday into Sunday Night.
Latest trends in the guidance have depicted a slight northwest
trend and a closer approach by the surface low. In particular,
the GEM/GEPS have joined closer to the operational GFS and its
AI counterpart (which remain the furthest northwest solution).
The ECMWF and its ensemble members did shift slightly northwest
as well but remains the furthest southeast of all the solutions
and mainly offshore. As a result, PoPs were increased slightly
again, up to around 35-45% along the coast, and up to 25-35%
inland to as far as the Lehigh Valley. With the passage of a
cold front on Saturday Night, there should be an abundance of
cold air available for most precipitation to fall as snow, its
just a matter if the surface low and precipitation shield get
close enough. Confidence remains relatively low overall but is a
bit higher than at last forecast issuance. NBM snow
accumulation probabilities have ticked up as well. 1"+ or more
of snow is around a 25-35% chance for the coast with a 10-20%
chance for 3" or more. Probabilities of 1"+ of snow in the I-95
corridor and areas northwest is around 15-25%. This system will
continue to bear watching given the latest trends.
Sunday storm is off the coast on most models. They mainly gave up on the americanwx biard
The NWS's area forecast as of 6:40 p.m. seems to confirm this: "Threat has diminished for significant snow on Sunday."
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
smart move. burn the moisture out of the oil and such. turn those wheels and stretch those belts.
Saturday’s Event: This is as brief as it gets for me, lol. Updated NWS-Philly map for both storms below and they've issued advisories for 2-4" of snow on Saturday for the Poconos, Sussex, Warren, Morris and NW Passaic and for the Hudson Valley - there are going to be some very surprised people in those areas tomorrow morning. The snow is likely to fall from about 5 am to 1 pm or so and in general, they're forecasting 1-2" just a few miles NW of 95 and 2-4"N of 78 and W of the Parkway, roughly, with a very steep gradient along 95 as temps will likely be 34-36F along 95 when the heaviest snow is falling (so much will melt), whereas temps will likely be at or just below 32F N of 78. Guessing 1-2" worth of snow will "fall" along 95 (north of 276/195), but most of that will melt - maybe a slushy inch on colder surfaces unless we get HRRR style rates; little to no snow towards the coast and south of 276/195.
Sunday’s Event: And they're predicting 1-2" for the coast to 95 on Sunday (and less NW of 95) from about 6 am to 4 pm (with colder temps than Saturday, so little rain/melting, except for far SNJ), for now, as about 2/3 of the models, including the high performing AIFS (Euro AI model), the CMC, RGEM, GFS and AI-GFS are now showing 2-4" for the coast and 1-2" inland to 95 (so there is upside on this forecast), while the other 1/3 (UK, NAM, ICON) are showing just a dusting for the coast and nada inland (so there’s also downside, lol). The Euro deterministic model (non-AI) is showing an inch or so for the coast and 1/2-1" towards 95, but it has shifted over 100 miles NW since yesterday towards the other models. IMO, if the Euro makes another move NW, they'll up those forecasts for Sunday as all of the best models would then be showing moderate snow, NWS is currently showing about 1/2" for my house on Saturday and almost 1" on Sunday. I’ll go with 1” on colder surfaces Saturday and 1.5” on Sunday. Looks like a fun 2 days ahead...
Sunday’s Event: And they're predicting 1-2" for the coast to 95 on Sunday (and less NW of 95) from about 6 am to 4 pm (with colder temps than Saturday, so little rain/melting, except for far SNJ), for now, as about 2/3 of the models, including the high performing AIFS (Euro AI model), the CMC, RGEM, GFS and AI-GFS are now showing 2-4" for the coast and 1-2" inland to 95 (so there is upside on this forecast), while the other 1/3 (UK, NAM, ICON) are showing just a dusting for the coast and nada inland (so there’s also downside, lol). The Euro deterministic model (non-AI) is showing an inch or so for the coast and 1/2-1" towards 95, but it has shifted over 100 miles NW since yesterday towards the other models. IMO, if the Euro makes another move NW, they'll up those forecasts for Sunday as all of the best models would then be showing moderate snow, NWS is currently showing about 1/2" for my house on Saturday and almost 1" on Sunday. I’ll go with 1” on colder surfaces Saturday and 1.5” on Sunday. Looks like a fun 2 days ahead...
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Saturday’s Event: This is as brief as it gets for me, lol. Updated NWS-Philly map for both storms below and they've issued advisories for 2-4" of snow on Saturday for the Poconos, Sussex, Warren, Morris and NW Passaic and for the Hudson Valley - there are going to be some very surprised people in those areas tomorrow morning. The snow is likely to fall from about 5 am to 1 pm or so and in general, they're forecasting 1-2" just a few miles NW of 95 and 2-4"N of 78 and W of the Parkway, roughly, with a very steep gradient along 95 as temps will likely be 34-36F along 95 when the heaviest snow is falling (so much will melt), whereas temps will likely be at or just below 32F N of 78. Guessing 1-2" worth of snow will "fall" along 95 (north of 276/195), but most of that will melt - maybe a slushy inch on colder surfaces unless we get HRRR style rates; little to no snow towards the coast and south of 276/195.
Sunday’s Event: And they're predicting 1-2" for the coast to 95 on Sunday (and less NW of 95) from about 6 am to 4 pm (with colder temps than Saturday, so little rain/melting, except for far SNJ), for now, as about 2/3 of the models, including the high performing AIFS (Euro AI model), the CMC, RGEM, GFS and AI-GFS are now showing 2-4" for the coast and 1-2" inland to 95 (so there is upside on this forecast), while the other 1/3 (UK, NAM, ICON) are showing just a dusting for the coast and nada inland (so there’s also downside, lol). The Euro deterministic model (non-AI) is showing an inch or so for the coast and 1/2-1" towards 95, but it has shifted over 100 miles NW since yesterday towards the other models. IMO, if the Euro makes another move NW, they'll up those forecasts for Sunday as all of the best models would then be showing moderate snow, NWS is currently showing about 1/2" for my house on Saturday and almost 1" on Sunday. I’ll go with 1” on colder surfaces Saturday and 1.5” on Sunday. Looks like a fun 2 days ahead...
Big all day plans, so probably not much posting today. Today still looks the same as the post above, as snow is starting to move in now for NW areas, but Sunday is looking much snowier than it did yesterday, as the Euro (and this was big as it had not shown much snow for our area for days and has a reputation, still, of being the best model, despite the much newer AIFS now having better verification scores), NAM, and GFS all caved to the consistently snowier AI models (from the Euro and GFS), with only the UK/ICON being non-snowy holdouts (but even they increased a bit).
So here's my bottom line take, fwiw. Looks like 2-4" N of 78/NW of 287 today (as per the WWA's) with maybe a slushy inch along 95 and nada SE of 95 due to warm temps. And for Sunday, with the significant moves NW for the GFS, NAM, NAM3km, RRFS, and finally the Euro, joining the already NW AIFS and AIGFS (and ignoring the paltry precip for the UK/ICON), it's looking like 2-4" from 95 to the coast with maybe 1-2" NW of 95 with an upside of 3-6" from 95 to the coast and a downside of 1-3" from 95 to the coast. Would like to see 12Z not backtrack to have higher confidence in the Sunday numbers. Now I'm getting excited for snow. Will keep my forecast of 1" of slush at my house in Metuchen for Saturday and up my forecast for my house for Sunday from 1.5" to 3.1".
FWIW, here is what the models are showing for Edison for Saturday (Kuchera, since it'll be 34-36F for most of the snow) and Sunday (10:1 ratio as it should be colder with temps in the 31-33F range). These number are fairly similar from about NB to NYC along 95 with a bit less towards Philly. The Saturday numbers are nada SE of 95 to the coast, while for Sunday they're 1-2" greater for most models at the coast vs 95 (north of Toms River; south of there, mixing becomes an issue). Let's see what 12Z brings.
Snowfall on Sat (Kuchera)/Sun (10:1 ratio)
Euro: 0.4"/1.9"
AIFS (Euro AI): 0.5"/2.8"
AIGFS: 0.5"/3.0"
GFS: 1.3" (is 1.7" at 10:1)/3.6"
NAM: 0.7"/4.1"
RGEM: 0.8"/2.6"
NAM3km: 0.3"/3.2"
RRFSA (new NAM): 0.1"/5.0" (but Kuchera shows 3.1" here - much larger deviation than for most models)
HRDPS: 0.6"/2.4"
UK: 1.0"/1.2"
ICON: 1.0"/0.6"
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Light snow here 30
Still to all colder surfaces and sidewalk but not sticking to park lot. Slow rates and temos warming above freezing soon Im not expecting more than an inch on grass IMBY. Roads will remain just wet
Numbers alot of words for 2 minor events. Lets see what the upcoming models shiw for tomorrow
Still to all colder surfaces and sidewalk but not sticking to park lot. Slow rates and temos warming above freezing soon Im not expecting more than an inch on grass IMBY. Roads will remain just wet
Numbers alot of words for 2 minor events. Lets see what the upcoming models shiw for tomorrow
Advisories extended to Hunterdon and upper Bucks/western Montco and Somerset might need one too. 1"+ on the ground in the blue counties and the WAA's say another 2" on the way. Snowing decently even here with a dusting now, which is way earlier than modeled.
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80 degrees in SoCal this week. Love global warming!
2-4" today for many in this region and 2-4" tomorrow (as per most of the 6Z models and early 12Z models, with potential for up to 5-6") is not minor. The words were deserved.