UNC March Breakdown:
There are several factors to our improvement:
1. Healthy: Little hurt his foot and was hampered for about a month. However he has been on a tear now that his ankle has healed up (assuming he recovers from his flu like symptoms). Likewise, Leaky Black (who is severely underrated as a passer, shooter, rebounder, and defender) has finally come back after a long absence. This UNC team has especially turned a corner ever since Garrison Brooks has gotten healthy (he played in games, but was dinged pre-ACC regular season) and doesn’t have ankle injuries down low. Now that he is healthy, he is one of the best post defenders we have had in the last 10 years, and gives us legitimate post defense we lacked earlier in the year.
2. Defense: UNC has gotten MUCH better on defense lately, especially on (a) guarding drives, (b) perimeter rotations, and (c) interior defense with Brooks now healthy. We struggled with all three early, but are really clicking now. Coby White and Little are key reasons for the perimeter defensive improvements; Coby has actually even guarded the other team’s best perimeter player for stretches and done fantastic during those times.
3. Passing: No one UNC player dominates on passing, but 1-5 this is one of the best passing UNC teams we have had. This wasn’t true earlier in the year, but it has been the last 1.5 months. A good statistical comparison is the Florida 2006-2007 teams that had good passing across the board. I genuinely don’t know how Cal did against them (if he played them at all) and would be curious to know since our advanced analytic passing numbers the last month matches those Florida teams.
That’s about it. We don’t have any magical surprises up our sleeve and I know other teams have gotten better besides UNC, including a much improved Kentucky team. My personal opinion is UNC will play them closer than the 8 point loss we took to UK in December. My thinking on this is while I know every team deals with injuries (and Kentucky has dealt with a ton), injuries early in the year (not as much late) affect UNC more than other teams because we run both a freelance half-court offense and a freelance secondary break, and they both require an extensive amount of familiarity with teammates. Cal’s teams get better in March because they are young. Roy’s team get better in March because they finally have the teammate familiarity to run our offense, and that gives him time to get the players fully on board on defensive rotations. It has been under the radar, but this year’s UNC team had an inordinate amount of injuries, and my experience watching Roy coached teams has been his teams with multiple players who were injured in the early season make the biggest jumps at the end of the year.
I expect you guys will roll Houston if PJ is healthy enough to play. Hopefully we can escape Auburn for a Blueblood elite eight rubber Match in the Cal/Roy era.