Demarcus Henry to UNC

[RunninRichie]

Florida - Todd Golden
Michigan - Dusty May
Indiana - Curt Cignetti

Oats plucking away - now has two kids ranked ahead of Hampton, both top 25.

Will Wade intrigues me.

 

[BookofMormon]

That’s what I’m saying. Stein doing this good is a blessing and a curse. He’s going to ask for more nil as well as probably going to get a raise sooner rather than later at least verbally. In years past pope being fired would be easy but with NIL now you have to weigh the pros and cons of blowing all the money on a coach and firing a coach or just keep throwing money at recruits and towards football. Comes down to what the boosters really care about with their money. We don’t have those ultra aggressive sports boosters it seems.

I'm just looking at the contract now. What in the hell was the one year extension for the S16 for? That is a low bar for an extension - worse case scenario that he hit that year one and now can coast.

So he has 4 years left, buyout is 75% of remainder. He's got a little under 24mm left, will be down to 18mm after this year. That means UK would owe the guy around 13mm after this year. That is a tough bite to swallow. Will drop down to about 9mm after Y4, 4.5mm after Y5.

Everyone lapping over Oats, he will have a 15mm buyout if someone takes him this year. So we are talking 28mm to fire Pope and hire Oats. Oats buyout drops down to 12mm the following year, then to 0. If it's Oats you want, you wait an extra year and it goes from 28 to 21, wait 2 years it goes from 28 to 4.5.

Oats ain't happening anytime soon, should all drop that. No way doing a two way buyout after this year for 28mm. That is a way over market buyout, which are usually in the 4-5mm range.

You move on Pope, hire Oats and along with Stoops, you are looking at 65mm in buyouts. Good lord.

I honestly think unless brass gets really confident they can get someone like McCasland or Otzelberger, you're seeing 2 more years of Pope.I like both of them, but not sure I'm doing jumping jacks. A guy like McCollum has only been at Iowa a year and isn't a UK fit. Give Lucas, Hodson and Murray 2 years to see if they are the goods.

 

[RunninRichie]

I'm just looking at the contract now. What in the hell was the one year extension for the S16 for? That is a low bar for an extension - worse case scenario that he hit that year one and now can coast.

So he has 4 years left, buyout is 75% of remainder. He's got a little under 24mm left, will be down to 18mm after this year. That means UK would owe the guy around 13mm after this year. That is a tough bite to swallow. Will drop down to about 9mm after Y4, 4.5mm after Y5.

Everyone lapping over Oats, he will have a 15mm buyout if someone takes him this year. So we are talking 28mm to fire Pope and hire Oats. Oats buyout drops down to 12mm the following year, then to 0.

Oats ain't happening anytime soon, should all drop that. No way doing a two way buyout after this year for 28mm. That is a way over market buyout, which are usually in the 4-5mm range.

I just hope big boosters come through and eat the buyout for us.

 

[ScWildcat3]

I'm just looking at the contract now. What in the hell was the one year extension for the S16 for? That is a low bar for an extension - worse case scenario that he hit that year one and now can coast.

So he has 4 years left, buyout is 75% of remainder. He's got a little under 24mm left, will be down to 18mm after this year. That means UK would owe the guy around 13mm after this year. That is a tough bite to swallow. Will drop down to about 9mm after Y4, 4.5mm after Y5.

Everyone lapping over Oats, he will have a 15mm buyout if someone takes him this year. So we are talking 28mm to fire Pope and hire Oats. Oats buyout drops down to 12mm the following year, then to 0.

Oats ain't happening anytime soon, should all drop that. No way doing a two way buyout after this year for 28mm. That is a way over market buyout, which are usually in the 4-5mm range.

Yea and that’s if he doesn’t make sweet 16 this year. If he does that’s another year of money you owe.

 

[Resignmarkpope]

I'm just looking at the contract now. What in the hell was the one year extension for the S16 for? That is a low bar for an extension - worse case scenario that he hit that year one and now can coast.

So he has 4 years left, buyout is 75% of remainder. He's got a little under 24mm left, will be down to 18mm after this year. That means UK would owe the guy around 13mm after this year. That is a tough bite to swallow. Will drop down to about 9mm after Y4, 4.5mm after Y5.

Everyone lapping over Oats, he will have a 15mm buyout if someone takes him this year. So we are talking 28mm to fire Pope and hire Oats. Oats buyout drops down to 12mm the following year, then to 0.

Oats ain't happening anytime soon, should all drop that. No way doing a two way buyout after this year for 28mm. That is a way over market buyout, which are usually in the 4-5mm range.

Rewarding coach for a Sweet 16! Welcome to Bloomington! Home of mark pope!

 

[BookofMormon]

Yea and that’s if he doesn’t make sweet 16 this year. If he does that’s another year of money you owe.

No way, an extra year for every S16? SWEET SIXTEEN? Jesus - that makes the play much more interesting. I guess it's all about who their targets are. You can't be hoping for the guy to fail every year for 2-3 years.

 

[ScWildcat3]

No way, an extra year for every S16? SWEET SIXTEEN? Jesus - that makes the play much more interesting. I guess it's all about who their targets are. You can't be hoping for the guy to fail every year for 2-3 years.

That’s why I’ve been saying it’s all on the boosters and what they are willing to spend. It’s more complicated than just fire him and move on.

 

[BookofMormon]

That’s why I’ve been saying it’s all on the boosters and what they are willing to spend. It’s more complicated than just fire him and move on.

Weird contract - rewarding him perpetually for S16s. I get it if he gets to it in his first year. A S16 isn't mediocrity, but it's not the UK bar. I just don't know why they would have drawn that in. This wasn't a coach with a ton of leverage. It's not like he had other top programs swooning over him. Really dumb. Would have maybe said Y1 S16 and then E8's after.

And then it's really about who they target - if it's another established coach, it'll be 4-6mm. If it's Oats in the next two years it's a ton. It's so important not to F up on the next hire, need to be pinpoint, not rush just to get Pope out. You also don't want to pass up on the next great thing to get the current good thing just to get Pope out.

 

[ScWildcat3]

Weird contract - rewarding him perpetually for S16s. I get it if he gets to it in his first year. A S16 isn't mediocrity, but it's not the UK bar. I just don't know why they would have drawn that in. This wasn't a coach with a ton of leverage. It's not like he had other top programs swooning over him. Really dumb. Would have maybe said Y1 S16 and then E8's after.

And then it's really about who they target - if it's another established coach, it'll be 4-6mm. If it's Oats in the next two years it's a ton. It's so important not to F up on the next hire, need to be pinpoint, not rush just to get Pope out. You also don't want to pass up on the next great thing to get the current good thing just to get Pope out.

That’s Mitch for ya. King of bad contracts favoring the coach. Oats won’t be an option for at least 2 years. Also they have his new wife on staff now to keep him happy.

it will have to be a situation where the new coach will make the boosters happy enough to say do what it takes we got you. Just like lsu did with kiffin and firing Kelly.

 

[RationalKentuckyFan]

I'm just looking at the contract now. What in the hell was the one year extension for the S16 for? That is a low bar for an extension - worse case scenario that he hit that year one and now can coast.

So he has 4 years left, buyout is 75% of remainder. He's got a little under 24mm left, will be down to 18mm after this year. That means UK would owe the guy around 13mm after this year. That is a tough bite to swallow. Will drop down to about 9mm after Y4, 4.5mm after Y5.

Everyone lapping over Oats, he will have a 15mm buyout if someone takes him this year. So we are talking 28mm to fire Pope and hire Oats. Oats buyout drops down to 12mm the following year, then to 0. If it's Oats you want, you wait an extra year and it goes from 28 to 21, wait 2 years it goes from 28 to 4.5.

Oats ain't happening anytime soon, should all drop that. No way doing a two way buyout after this year for 28mm. That is a way over market buyout, which are usually in the 4-5mm range.

You move on Pope, hire Oats and along with Stoops, you are looking at 65mm in buyouts. Good lord.

I honestly think unless brass gets really confident they can get someone like McCasland or Otzelberger, you're seeing 2 more years of Pope.I like both of them, but not sure I'm doing jumping jacks. A guy like McCollum has only been at Iowa a year and isn't a UK fit. Give Lucas, Hodson and Murray 2 years to see if they are the goods.

The extension for getting to the sweet 16 is because even the university understands that is what Kentucky's ceiling is now, a sweet 16 team. They are no longer relevant or a contender in college basketball in this era. Literally all of the evidence is there:

- Mark Pope being the best coach they could get
- No five star recruits for the entirity of Pope's tenure here
- 2019 the last time they got past the sweet 16
- The extension on the contract for making it to the sweet 16
- The best record Kentucky has had under pope is 12 losses.

I could go on but its obvious and all the evidence points to it that Kentucky is just not a relevant basketball program any longer. If you disagree please give me any evidence you have to the contrary that Kentucky is still relevant in today's college basketball and not just a historic team with an incredible legacy.

 

[BookofMormon]

The extension for getting to the sweet 16 is because even the university understands that is what Kentucky's ceiling is now, a sweet 16 team. They are no longer relevant or a contender in college basketball in this era. Literally all of the evidence is there:

- Mark Pope being the best coach they could get
- No five star recruits for the entirity of Pope's tenure here
- 2019 the last time they got past the sweet 16
- The extension on the contract for making it to the sweet 16

I could go on but its obvious and all the evidence points to it that Kentucky is just not a relevant basketball program any longer.

Bologna. The right coach could fix it all fast.

I see this more as:

Calipari left abruptly, poorly timed, not enough time to conduct a proper search given the portal. Brass felt rushed to fill seat, Pope right place, right time. It was a 3 day search! Drew up a really bad contract, should have been 4 years with overall options to extend in Y3, not an annual trigger.

When they hired Pope, the NIL era was very different than where it is now. Kids in that 2024 through 2025 season were still in the 100Ks, not the multi millions.The really big money had yet to start pouring in, disclosure limited and it was all a mystery & black box still. It started really picking up into 2025, skyrocketed into 2026 and keeps going up now.

Rushed, bad hire. Landscape has formed up, UK still a great brand.

I tend to think you want a really commercial coach in the role, someone that brings a ton of culture and synergizes with with Kentucky. This is why keep alluding to holding out for Hodgson. He checks every box. I think you give him two years.

 

[bbnkat02]

Bologna. The right coach could fix it all fast.

I see this more as:

Calipari left abruptly, poorly timed, not enough time to conduct a proper search given the portal. Brass felt rushed to fill seat, Pope right place, right time. It was a 3 day search! Drew up a really bad contract, should have been 4 years with overall options to extend in Y3, not an annual trigger.

When they hired Pope, the NIL era was very different than where it is now. Kids in that 2024 through 2025 season were still in the 100Ks, not the multi millions.The really big money had yet to start pouring in, disclosure limited and it was all a mystery & black box still. It started really picking up into 2025, skyrocketed into 2026 and keeps going up now.

Rushed, bad hire. Landscape has formed up, UK still a great brand.

I tend to think you want a really commercial coach in the role, someone that brings a ton of culture and synergizes with with Kentucky. This is why keep alluding to holding out for Hodgson. He checks every box. I think you give him two years.

Hodgson has yet to win an NCAAT game. Exactly like Pope was when hired here. His recruiting seems to be better but I’m not sure hats exactly a home run hire some are clamoring for.

 

[BookofMormon]

Hodgson has yet to win an NCAAT game. Exactly like Pope was when hired here. His recruiting seems to be better but I’m not sure hats exactly a home run hire some are clamoring for.

Pope had an invested High D1 program for 5 years in BYU. He lost in the round of 64 twice as a 6 seed. That is concerning. Prior to Utah Valley, he was an assistant at BYU for 4 years, team lost in the round of 64 twice, in the First 4 once. Never won an NCAA game as an assistant. Didn't win as an assistant in his one year at Wake. The guy never even saw a tournament win as an assistant of HC in his life as a coach before UK.

This guy has no idea how to win as a coach.

Bryan Hodgson plucked out of the Juco world by Nate Oats. Nate Oats was plucked out of the HS world by Dan Hurley, who saw him on a recruiting visit and was amazed how a math teacher was using analytics so effectively at the HS BB level. He sent him to go be an assistant for his brother at Buffalo. Bobby left Buff for AZSt, Oats took the HC job there and crushed it, brought Hodgson on as an assistant. Oats took the Bama job, Hodsgon followed him. He was an assistant for Oats through 23.

At Buffalo, Oats:

2018: 13 seed, crushed 4 seed AZ by 20
2019: 11 seed, crushed 6 seed AZ St by 17

So Hodgson was part of a staff at a mid major who was winning tournament games upsetting high seeded high majors

At Bama, Oats:

Y1 - rebuilt a losing program pre NIL, Avery Johnson 18-16
Y2 - SEC reg season champ, SEC tourney champ, S16
Y3 - tourney
Y4 - SEC reg season champ, SEC tourney champ, number 1 overall seed, S16 - Hodgson leaves after this year
Y5 - F4
Y6 - E8
Y7 - S16

I'd argue over the last 6 years, Nate Oats has had Bama only behind UConn, Duke, Purdue, Houston. They have more tourney wins in that time frame other than Duke, UConn, Houston and Gonzaga. I think everyone needs to stand back and understand exactly how good Oats has been, and with a fraction of the NIL.

Hodgson HC
Y1 - takes a 13-20 Arkansas State to 20-17
Y2 - wins Sun Belt, loses in CG to Troy, 25-11
Y3 - takes a 13-19 USF and wins the AAC reg season, tournament, loses to Louisville in first round, 25-9

So this guy has learned a system under a coach that won at Buffalo and took a football school to top 6-7 BB program today. He has flipped two bad programs immediately since. He's learned an analytics based system that is fast paced and kids want to play for. He's already getting 5 stars at PC. He's got moxy, is a culture builder and a leader.

Sometimes you really need to get under the hood before looking at only tourney wins. You wait too long thinking there is a Dan Hurley out there jumping at UK, you'll miss the boat on a star rising.

I think the guy is a no brainer if he shows two good years at PC. I'd wait it out. There are very few HD1 coaches I'd consider before him. Oats is one obviously, buyout prohibitive. Then I'd look at McCollum, Otzerlberger, Lucas, Schertz and McCasland. Still not sure I wouldn't take Hodgson over all of them.