We still want OSU to win out if we want to have any shot whatsoever getting into the playoffs with two losses. And odds are, we'll probably have two or more losses when the season is over.
Sayin out for season
- Thread starter Palmerhawk
- Start date
Typically I'd agree but I'd say this year and Ohio State specifically has a chance. They likely end up with a SOS in the top 5. They'll have wins @Indiana, @ Iowa and would likely puck up at least another playoff top 25 win given what they have left. With every conference now playing 9 conference games there's just going to be more losses amongst the field. On top of that they'll likely claim Sayin will be back for postseason which shouldn't be a factor but we all saw how they justified that as a reason to drop an undefeated Florida State out. If they finish 9-3 I wouldn't say they're a lock of course but I would put it at or near 50/50
Did you just ask why?.........................
Why?....................
Well, let me tell you why.
They don't have a QB room like they had back then. Thanks to NIL, they can't keep 2 good QB's. The good players who don't get to start will always transfer. They have nothing behind Sayin. Their season is likely over. A loss to 8-4 Ohio St doesn't help in the playoff run, especially if Iowa drops another game.
We'll see. They still have the best player in college football, a solid ground game, a very tough defense. I think their coaches are smart enough to know what they're working with at QB and make the adjustments so that he's not expected to go out and win games for them but instead manage the offense and avoid mistakes. Jeremiah Smith's talent can make up for other weaknesses. But again, we'll see.
But Raiola looked great at USC when moore got attacked, I am not saying hurt, moore got attacked. I saw Raiola's numbers for that game but cant quite remember but maybe 22-29 or 12-19 for a bunch of yards. But we have seen Raiola look really good and then poor
They have an amazingly hard schedule to finish the year. They're going to lose 2-3 games while training a new QB
Yes, he looked really good as the back up when the opponent wasn't prepared. Then he starts, and looked even worse then he did at Nebraska and got benched in the 4th Q. He may very well not be the starter going forward even if Moore is still out.
If Bessinger is Really good he will beat them all out by the start of next season. Our qbs are good, I wouldnt say really good although I hope they are, but they are not great but I hope one of them becomes great
USC's pass defense is a dumpster fire. So that's probably why he performed well in that game.
I'll start by saying I think they roll USC, that team is dreadfully overrated. However, the script has really flipped, where Oregon and Michigan would have been the hardest in the preseason, now all of the sudden it's Northwestern and Nebraska that should be most concerning.
That is true and that is what happens when you have an offensive genius (haha) as a head coach as they just try to outscore the other teams. If USC really set their minds to signing tough nosed kids who play great defense and paid a really good DCoordnator they might win a CFP. At some point in several games a year your offense is going to struggle
UCLA has a VERY manageable schedule..even with a backup QB I don't see them losing more than 1 game, I think w/out looking USC is the toughest game left on schedule. Where does a 1 loss UCLA rank for CFP with a late loss? Indiana could very well lose again too..wow, gonna be lots of politics involved here for the 10-2 teams? Best case for Iowa obviously is to navigate the ol B10 west slate and go 11-1...do it....
I agree he looked pretty bad. If he does not improve dramatically I could see them losing at least 2 games. JMHO
Time will tell. You still have to get the ball to their best player. Might be hard when the backup is facing real speed in-game for his first start.
Let's look at their schedule, though.
@(16) USC
Oregon
(24) Northwestern
@ Nebraska
Michigan
They are now entering the meat and potatoes of their B1G schedule. Say what you want about Michigan, Nebraska and Oregon. They all could beat Ohio St with a backup playing. The two road games aren't going to be easy. One on the West Coast for Luke Fahey's first start. The other in a hostile environment in Lincoln.
Let's also keep in mind that Ohio St has Tavien St Clair (So), a 5 star QB that has been underwhelming to say the least. He is a 2nd string to a 3 star QB in Fahey (Fr).
Their QB room is in trouble. Doesn't matter if you have a nuclear arsenal. You still need someone to pull the trigger.
If you watched the Oregon vs Nebraska game last weekend, then you should know Raiola is the far superior option if Moore can’t play.
He got tossed into a hornets nest against the number 7 team in the country. I hate to say it but I'm guessing a full week of practice he will certainly look a lot better. But damn that is quite a tough schedule. While we all love to make fun of USC they're going to score points at home against the Buckeyes. Can OSU keep up with a backup? Oregon honestly just isn't very good this year and either is Michigan but it's still a rivalry game. The committee is going to have a heck of a time figuring out the at large bids this year with so many 2 and 3 loss teams.
Mostly agree. But that backup will have now gotten all of the 1st team reps in two full weeks of practice before their next game. Not saying what he will or won't amount to, but I'd imagine there's only room to go up for a guy who was put into a game v. #5 Indiana with zero preparation vs. when he's the acknowledged starter and will be getting all the prep.
They have a bye this week so he'll be getting 2 full weeks to prep for USC. Still no easy feat.
True, there is no expectations when you come in as a backup in the end of a game that you're already winning.
That changes when you're the starter.
Let's also keep in mind he is not a 5 star, highly touted recruit.
He is a Freshman 3 star. Never expected to start. I don't see it going well for him. I think fans will be screaming for 5 star Sophomore, St Clair.
What do star ratings have to do with starting? He's also going up against a defense that Raiola lit up. I think he'll be fine for that first game.
At a school like Ohio St, it means a lot more than at Iowa. Tavien St Clair is paid much more and expected to be the next great QB in Columbus.
I think him being a Freshman is the biggest talking point for me. If he was great coming out of HS, he would have been ranked higher. Luke Fahey was ranked the 38th best QB in his class. He was a filler for Ohio St. Who can no longer stockpile great QBs, Fahey was never expected to be the starter. Only to fill a position on the roster.
I just don't like his chances. He might make a fool out of me. But, I doubt it.
Disagree with your take.
Allar in is the NFL
Wegmann is at the helm of undefeated houston..good couple years there.
Nico- commanded huge money at tenn,where he beat Iowa in bowl and was leading undefeated UCLA til injured.
Arch- jury is out
Lagway is leading undefeated smu
Raiola is still commanding millions on market
I looked at top ten QBs in these classes ..lot of familiar names that are starting in college or NFL.
They are gonna miss but if you make that list you have a good chance of succeeding.
Travon bessinger at #11 in 2026 class
OSU fahey is #37 in same class.
I don't really care about NIL money, Underwood is making 3 million this year, do you think he's worth it?
DJ lagway plays for Baylor, and SMU isn't undefeated. Raiola is a giant bust, hell according to some he was the #1 overall qb in the class. Since you bring up NFL, you know that Mestemaker is currently projected as the top QB to be selected by some, bro was an unranked walk-on.
To sum it up, they at best have ~40% hit rate, which is higher than some, but are you throwing millions at 40% hit rate? Also why ar you discussing Bessinger? He could be fantastic, or he could be Jake C v. 2.0.
My point is that there are thousands of HS QBs coming out each year so hitting on even 40% is not bad.
The year Caleb williams came into college he was # 3,drake maye, jj McCarthy jackson dart ,milroe,huard..all top 15 .all in nfl.
Granted football is a very developmental sport so some guys keep getting better, some peak early.
I threw the bessinger comp to fahey out there just to illustrate how difficult OSU 's situation might be...maybe bessinger who is 26 spots ahead of the OSU starter in same class might be great,or not.
Probably takes 5 years to determine if a QB is truly a bust,imo
The year Caleb williams came into college he was # 3,drake maye, jj McCarthy jackson dart ,milroe,huard..all top 15 .all in nfl.
Granted football is a very developmental sport so some guys keep getting better, some peak early.
I threw the bessinger comp to fahey out there just to illustrate how difficult OSU 's situation might be...maybe bessinger who is 26 spots ahead of the OSU starter in same class might be great,or not.
Probably takes 5 years to determine if a QB is truly a bust,imo
I really don't garner the point you are trying to make, so because St. Clair is a 5*, he should start?
Fahey, has surpassed a 5* in year one. He has arguably the most talented group of wide receivers in the NCAA going up against what will be the 110th ranked passing defense in USC. It doesn't take 5 years to determine if a 5* is a bust. Air Noland was a 5* in Sayin's class, he has transferred twice and didn't beat out Marcus Stokes at Memphis this year. Jayden Rashada, whatever 20th school he is on at this point.
Really don't get the Bessinger comp to Fahey, you know who else was in that class rated lower than Bessinger, Tommy Carr. It didn't look like he struggled against Penn State coming in at half. the point is the cream will rise to the top, guys like Mensah, Cam Ward, Mestemaker, even Mendoza showed up and showed off. If the Ohio State coaches prefer Fahey, they must for a reason, and unlike Iowa, they have a history of having QBs drafted consistently.
I was actually referring to the fact that a 3 star beating out a 5 star as a freshman might not be a good thing either. We will see. He went 0-2 after he came in. Small sample size, but he didn't look ready, either. It will be enjoyable coming back to this thread in a month and see what's what.
You said q
I saw many of the top QBs in college and NFL rated highly.
I disagree that qb ratings,while not perfect, do have a correlation to success quite often
If Luke Fahey hits, then as the 37th rated qb he was underrated. If bessinger at 11 is a bum then he is overrated.
We will see eventually.
You said qb ratings are laughable.
I saw many of the top QBs in college and NFL rated highly.
I disagree that qb ratings,while not perfect, do have a correlation to success quite often
If Luke Fahey hits, then as the 37th rated qb he was underrated. If bessinger at 11 is a bum then he is overrated.
We will see eventually.
Purdy is amazing because of the system and the obscene amount of talent around him. Mac Jones played 11 games last year when Purdy was out. His numbers were nearly identical to Purdy's last year. %, TD/INT, QBR. Put Purdy on literally any other roster in the league and see what kind of numbers he puts up.
Ohio State still has a pretty solid rushing defense. All Sayin does is throw to Smith. If their backup is a runner, I think they'll be just as tough.
fOSU & UCLA both lose their starting QBs. Not a fan of either. BUT for the B1G to take hits on a couple of our top teams, is rough for the CFP...
That noted, there is a lot of season left. Maybe they can get the experience in and play ok.
That would prevent our DBs from getting Mossed all over the field by Smith?
I'm very much in the camp of great QB's make everyone around them better. In the Buckeye's case, their talent around a marginal QB will make him better. Count out the Buckeye's at your own peril. (still have no idea how they choked at Texas but ..........).
They have very much become WR University, but wasn't that long ago they had Henderson and Judkins in their backfield. Their run game has been suspect I believe, but that could change with more emphasis on it with a new QB in there. Guess we'll see. I would be very surprised if they aren't the Big Ten regular season champ.
Day thinks Fahey will do just fine. He's not Sayin.....he's just sayin'.
Thank you. Thank you. You've been a great crowd.
Ol' Doodle will be here all week. Two shows on Friday and Saturday.
Don't forget to tip your waitress. Try the veal.
Thanks for comin' out everybody. Get home safely.
Goodnight!
Thank you. Thank you. You've been a great crowd.
Ol' Doodle will be here all week. Two shows on Friday and Saturday.
Don't forget to tip your waitress. Try the veal.
Thanks for comin' out everybody. Get home safely.
Goodnight!
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