OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

Maybe the founder comes back to serve as interim CEO? I believe the stock dumped a few years ago for the executive move as well.

A former 11 year CEO stepped in as interim. Not the founder.

Stock up near 6% today.

 

[RUAldo]

It is an interesting point.

But he did go to a multi trillion dollar market cap company.

And I assume Meta paid him well to do so.

I’m sure he’s making a fortune at Meta. At the same time, it’s a peculiar career move, especially if MDB is expected to be a major player in the future DBaaS world. Who knows. I think we are going to see a ton of disruption in the space. My bet is Mag7 hammers the space eventually with new entrants like NVDA eventually expanding “sandboxes” to compete with the likes of SNOW, MDB, etc.

 

[RUAldo]

A former 11 year CEO stepped in as interim. Not the founder.

Stock up near 6% today.

Unless there is a product or competitor issue, MDB prob bounces back to prior levels once new leadership starts making rounds. I’m resisting my temptation to take 3-pointers when there are better shots to take like MSFT.

HOOD’s announcements make one thing clear - human traders are doing so at their own peril. The new trading features basically turn any Joe-Blow into a potential algorithmic trading powerhouse. Although not sure how anyone maintains an edge once everyone is doing it.

 

[AnonAmoose26]

I’m sure he’s making a fortune at Meta. At the same time, it’s a peculiar career move, especially if MDB is expected to be a major player in the future DBaaS world. Who knows. I think we are going to see a ton of disruption in the space. My bet is Mag7 hammers the space eventually with new entrants like NVDA eventually expanding “sandboxes” to compete with the likes of SNOW, MDB, etc.

The Mag7 are going to do enterprise IT service management and unstructured database management? That may sound really good on paper, but from the boots on the ground that's ridiculous.

 

[RUAldo]

The Mag7 are going to do enterprise IT service management and unstructured database management? That may sound really good on paper, but from the boots on the ground that's ridiculous.

For ex., MSFT offers Microsoft Fabric, Azure Synapse, and Azure Data Lake. Seems like a lot of these products start creeping into the world of data players like SNOW. However, I’m not suggesting data management companies are going anywhere.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Morning alert from Tom Lee/Fundstrat:

The S&P 500 limped into month end with a “whimper” finishing the month essentially flat (down -0.4%). This is not the worst outcome given that incoming news for the month was “bad” and “worse” than expected.

• September “negative” developments weighing in on markets:
  – Fed Chair Warsh became a “full blown hawk” and raised rates +25bp
  – August jobs report was surprisingly strong with 162,000 jobs added = hawkish
  – US 10Y surged from 4.75% to 5.29%, +54bp
  – US WTI oil hit $105 per barrel but for the month $85.76 to $88.89, +3.6%
  – September is a seasonally bad month in a midterm year
• In spite of these negative developments and headwinds, the S&P 500 managed a better than expected outcome of flat. To us, this is a somewhat disappointing outcome given that market sentiment had been so negative and that markets had reached an oversold status earlier in the month.
• But to us, the bigger takeaway might be that despite these substantial headwinds, particularly the surge in yields. Bond yields rose to nearly 20 year highs and these gains have been seen around the world. A US 10-year bond yielding 5.3% is becoming somewhat competitive as a total return prospect.
• Why are yields are rising? There are several possible explanations:
  – fiscal deficits are creating credit risk
  – AI spending and borrowing is competing for debt markets
  – markets might see “long-term inflation” as higher
  – term premium is rising, meaning uncertainty is adding to “yield” for longer years
  – Fed might have signaled need to “crush” inflation sending cost of capital higher
• Who knows? And this is why markets were unsettled for the month. But again, we view the flat performance of equities as evidence that underlying equity fundamentals have been strong. That is, the stock market should have been far stronger in the month, if bond yields did not surge in the month.
• There are some positives that have developed as we exit September and move into October:
  – the gap between Core PCE (3.0% now) vs Core CPI (2.35% now) is narrowing
  – gap is now 65 bp versus 100bp last month
  – odds of a Fed hike in Oct dropped to 36% from >75% after Fed’s Warsh “hawkish declaration”
  – WTI oil has been downtrending for the past few weeks, after surging to $105
  – US yields have risen for 7 months, and rarely in 75 years, manage to further rise beyond that
• So, the setup for macro surprise in October might actually be more sanguine. Think about this:
  – Fed fund futures show Fed likely to pause = dovish walkback
  – Sept jobs report (Friday) could be soft = dovish walkback
  – Oil, if weaker, is disinflationary and could lower yields
• This past 3Q26 was a challenging macro period for markets mainly because of the combination of factors mentioned above. That is, a hawkish pivot by the Fed and the surge in oil and yields. Moreover, the war continues to be the “long war.” In the face of this, here are the standout performers:
  – Ethereum (ETH +0.40%) and crypto with ETH leading by 6,830bp
  – Software (IGV +1.20%) outperforming by 1,550bp
  – MAG7 (MAGS +0.43%) outperforming by 940bp
  – IGV and MAGS are “AI downstream” names and we had expected them to lead as AI corrected
  – Energy given oil outperforming by 1,200bp
• Of the above, Energy is not a surprise. But Crypto and MAGS and IGV showed considerable resilience in the face of a significant tightening of financial conditions (rates) and a hawkish Fed. To us, that is what we expect to lead in 4Q26 as well.
• In other words, we think the second half of 2026 will see leadership from:
  – Ethereum and crypto –> full blown bull market underway
  – MAGS and software IGV as AI downstream stories
  – Energy is subject to how oil performs, which is an unknown

 

[RUAldo]

It’s gonna be a rollercoaster next few months. I’m mainly focused on large cap tech. Hit a home run with ACN this morning - between clueless companies trying to implement an AI strategy to gov’t regs coming, consultants will ring the register. Been looking at consulting firm HURN too.

IOT has one of the more interesting business models. Combines AI with physical assets. Signed a huge deal with Asplundh. Could be good long term play.

MKC looking like a good defensive stock to balance portfolio. Need to read earnings report today. Beaten down stock.

 

[RU05]

It’s gonna be a rollercoaster next few months. I’m mainly focused on large cap tech. Hit a home run with ACN this morning - between clueless companies trying to implement an AI strategy to gov’t regs coming, consultants will ring the register. Been looking at consulting firm HURN too.

IOT has one of the more interesting business models. Combines AI with physical assets. Signed a huge deal with Asplundh. Could be good long term play.

MKC looking like a good defensive stock to balance portfolio. Need to read earnings report today. Beaten down stock.

Very nice. I had been watching it since you mentioned it. Had money sitting there too. Didn't jump in.

I do own IOT. Been flat since I bought it. Looks like it wants to go.

MKC chart is horrendous. P/E of 7x.

 

[RUAldo]

Very nice. I had been watching it since you mentioned it. Had money sitting there too. Didn't jump in.

I do own IOT. Been flat since I bought it. Looks like it wants to go.

MKC chart is horrendous. P/E of 7x.

Who knows where ACN ultimately goes from here since it’s largely going to be viewed as an AI play, but corporate America loves consultants because most companies lack tech expertise and want someone to blame when **** goes wrong.

IOT’s grand plan should be to lean into autonomous fleets, drones, and robotics. And the data they are collecting will be like gold. In the future when I send my humanoids out to run errands I’ll want to know where they are and be able to track them if stolen.

MKC becomes more interesting if restaurants continue to struggle or there is a shift to healthier home cooking which also has a social element. But I’m not suggesting any of this is a reason to buy the stock (yet).

 

[RU05]

Was looking up MKC, and accidently put in MCK. Now that 5 year chart looks great.

P/E of 22. 10% EPS growth.

 

[RUAldo]

Sold GS after owning since $400. Will buy back in if capital markets struggle.

Sold Marriott - hard to see it going anywhere with oil and Fed.

Slowly Buying RKT. It’s been obliterated. Trump and Co. own too much real estate to let rates go much higher. Housing is a mess. Can’t go on like this forever.

Adding slowly to COIN. Gotta say I’m completely intrigued by COIN collectible card business that’s launching soon with the blockchain angle. I love trading cards and this would take care of the annoying buying/ordering, selling, and storing. people/kids lose their minds over this kind of thing and it’s not the fake NFT BS.

Been testing inverse plays mainly METD. Almost seems too easy…