You state this in the past tense as if it already has happened.
While I think the UMass game sealed his fate, a couple of things, though unlikely, could happen.
The team still goes 7-5, beating BC, Howard, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern and one of Michigan, USC or Penn State. But this is a very unlikely scenario.
The second thing is UMass could run the table, go undefeated and with the MAC. That is possible, as UMass does not have Western Michigan on their schedule, and they could meet in the championship.
However, both scenarios are unlikely, and I don't think Greg will have that long to prove himself.
The problem with extensions- athletic directors are lemmings. They hand out extensions like Halloween candy. The real reason to hand out extensions is that a coach gets so "hot," the school wants to prevent the coach from leaving. But agents use canards such as "it will hurt recruiting if Coach X has less than 3 years on his contract." Well, that canard is out the window in the NIL era. As we have seen, the decent players leave to play for the top teams to improve their NFL draft stock. Rutgers runs this risk with Antwan Raymond if the run blocking does not improve. He may get drafted anyway, but if the OL and the running game both tank, he may want to improve his draft stock somewhere else.