If The Best Team Won The Title

[Im The Village Idiot]

1988 Temple
2008 Memphis
2009 Louisville

1988 Temple played a much weaker schedule than Oklahoma who had a 10.87 higher SRS and they played and beat #2 SRS Arizona by 8. They were 8 point favorites in the title game but lost to Kansas. Sticking with Oklahoma for now.

Memphis and Kansas were virtually a pick ‘em going into the title game (MEM-2). When it’s that close, hard to ignore the head to head. Choke job? Sure. But a win is a win. By the narrowest margin, gotta keep 2008 Kansas.

As for 2009, Louisville benefitted from Ty Lawson injury to earn #1 overall seed, but the SRS difference is significant (+4.59) and North Carolina was arguably a better team regardless. Entering the tourney, UNC was betting favorites over the Cards. Sticking with 2009 UNC

 

[Runt#1969]

Haha !

So Kansas has only 3 titles. Still.

And Indiana ? Forget 1987.

1981 !

Leave it to AI to make Indiana even more irrelevant ! lol

 

[RunninRichie]

Well first of all, UK beat UNC if not for cheating refs. 0 doubt n my mind UK beats Oregon and Gonzaga to win the title if not for that bs.

I'm not sure we beat Oregon or Gonzaga tbh.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I'm not sure we beat Oregon or Gonzaga tbh.

Dude why you drop the disrespectful laughing emoji when I’m trying to have a serious discussion? Did you have something to add about the 1984 topic?

 

[BookofMormon]

Ok I’ll check those out.

Just curious. What led you to say these are the best teams those seasons? That will help me analyze it

The last time a preseason 1 has won is 2009 UNC. It's hard to identify best team early because things like chemistry and roster balance are hard to identify in advance.

Two teams I think fall flat compared to early season rankings:

Illinois - they are rolling out a 6'7" sophomore euro SF as their PG this year, along with a freshman.

Florida - still am not buying Fland. Florida beat up on a really soft SEC last year.

 

[Dward13]

I'm not sure we beat Oregon or Gonzaga tbh.

Same. Gonzaga size would have been a problem. UNC’s was. Derek Willis played well as a starter down the stretch of that season but he just wasn’t a banger down low. He was a very finesse stretch 4 and Bam needed help in the paint and we just didn’t have it for him.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

The last time a preseason 1 has won is 2009 UNC. It's hard to identify best team early because things like chemistry and roster balance are hard to identify in advance.

Two teams I think fall flat compared to early season rankings:

Illinois - they are rolling out a 6'7" sophomore euro SF as their PG this year, along with a freshman.

Florida - still am not buying Fland. Florida beat up on a really soft SEC last year.

This thread isn’t about next year

 

[RunninRichie]

Dude why you drop the disrespectful laughing emoji when I’m trying to have a serious discussion? Did you have something to add about the 1984 topic?

I didn't take it as disrespectful, just ribbing you. My fault if it came off that way. I think 84 UK would beat that UNC team. 2010 UK would boatrace 2010 Duke also.

 

[RunninRichie]

Same. Gonzaga size would have been a problem. UNC’s was. Derek Willis played well as a starter down the stretch of that season but he just wasn’t a banger down low. He was a very finesse stretch 4 and Bam needed help in the paint and we just didn’t have it for him.

Yeah, exactly. We just didn't have the frontcourt that year. Bam was basically all we had. That team was a Jarret Allen away from winning our 9th title. Wenyen and Willis were reserves at best. We would have no answer for Chris Boucher.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I didn't take it as disrespectful, just ribbing you. My fault if it came off that way. I think 84 UK would beat that UNC team. 2010 UK would boatrace 2010 Duke also.

As a Kentucky homer, I want to agree. But I can’t look at the teams and say Kentucky was the better team in either season. 2010 went to Kansas anyway, not to Duke

 

[BookofMormon]

This thread isn’t about next year

I know - point was that best teams identified early or late don't win the thing. I bet a lot of those "best" teams were preseason 1.

The tourney is a different ball of wax. No room for let downs, no room for bad mismatches. You have to become "bullet proof", and that's not just about talent.

Right now the guy that seems to have the sauce is Hurley. Whatever he's doing works. He would have had his third if he didn't run into a ridiculous Michigan team. I don't think that UConn team was even that talented last year, and was hurt (Demary, Ball).

While you can't copycat anyone, you try and take what you can. What he seems to do is has defenses chase guys all over the place, tire them out, make them focus for 30 seconds, which is hard to do. Then that wears them out on the other side of the floor. I'd think a big part of his program is crazy conditioning. Every edge matters.

 

[Runt#1969]

The last time a preseason 1 has won is 2009 UNC. It's hard to identify best team early because things like chemistry and roster balance are hard to identify in advance.

Two teams I think fall flat compared to early season rankings:

Illinois - they are rolling out a 6'7" sophomore euro SF as their PG this year, along with a freshman.

Florida - still am not buying Fland. Florida beat up on a really soft SEC last year.

Agreed with Illinois. Florida as well. I think they will take a step back this year. Someone in the SEC will catch them.

Illinois may be without Mirkovic at the beginning. If he stays out of the entirety of their OOC schedule, they will be in deep trouble.

I'm not convinced UConn will win the Big East, and how will Michigan fare with the coaching change? I have to think they will have a step back as well. Same for Iowa State. Purdue looks like they will have to have a miracle year to keep from sliding down the totem pole.

This is shaping up to be an interesting year already...

 

[Dward13]

Yeah, exactly. We just didn't have the frontcourt that year. Bam was basically all we had. That team was a Jarret Allen away from winning our 9th title. Wenyen and Willis were reserves at best. We would have no answer for Chris Boucher.

I wish Poythress would have used his medical redshirt and came back. He went to the G league and over seas. Those options were always gonna be there. He finally looked 100% in the summer league immediately following the 2016 season. It looked like he got his 3pt stroke back as well

He would have killed it as our staring power forward next to Bam. Dude was 6’8 240 of pure muscle. No one was bullying him around the rim. Him yamming on Decker in the 2014 Final Four is still one of my favorite UK highlights of all time. Guys just bounced off of him.

 

[BookofMormon]

Agreed with Illinois. Florida as well. I think they will take a step back this year. Someone in the SEC will catch them.

Illinois may be without Mirkovic at the beginning. If he stays out of the entirety of their OOC schedule, they will be in deep trouble.

I'm not convinced UConn will win the Big East, and how will Michigan fare with the coaching change? I have to think they will have a step back as well. Same for Iowa State. Purdue looks like they will have to have a miracle year to keep from sliding down the totem pole.

This is shaping up to be an interesting year already...

I think it's wide open. Not sure it matters if UConn wins the Big East or not. This year feels like there are about 15 teams that can make a play.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Please note the point of this is to measure the best teams and I don’t want to reward confirmation bias by over-rewarding champions. The question is who would be champion of the best teams always won? Things like injuries matter here. If we have teams with major players being out and it affects the resume, that has to be considered as well.

Going to try applying this to 2026 to see if we get good results.

 

[CB3UK]

The NCAA tournament is great at creating excitement.
The NCAA tournament is the worst way of deciding a champion in any sports league that I know of.

Correct.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

Let me know if I have developed the right methodology:


2026 Top 10

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. UConn
6. Illinois
7. Houston
8. Iowa State
9. Purdue
10. Michigan State
    
    2025 Top 10
    1. Florida
    2. Houston
    3. Duke
    4. Auburn
    5. Tennessee
    6. Alabama
    7. Texas Tech
    8. Michigan State
    9. St. John’s
    10. Maryland
        
        2024 Top 10
        1. UConn
        2. Houston
        3. Purdue
        4. Tennessee
        5. Iowa State
        6. Arizona
        7. North Carolina
        8. Auburn
        9. Illinois
        10. Duke

 

[BookofMormon]

Let me know if I have developed the right methodology:


2026 Top 10

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. UConn
6. Illinois
7. Houston
8. Iowa State
9. Purdue
10. Michigan State
    
    2025 Top 10
    1. Florida
    2. Houston
    3. Duke
    4. Auburn
    5. Tennessee
    6. Alabama
    7. Texas Tech
    8. Michigan State
    9. St. John’s
    10. Maryland
        
        2024 Top 10
        1. UConn
        2. Houston
        3. Purdue
        4. Tennessee
        5. Iowa State
        6. Arizona
        7. North Carolina
        8. Auburn
        9. Illinois
        10. Duke

Is this a list of the top teams each year?

I'd say for this past year, I'm going:

1 - Michigan
2 - Duke
3 - Arizona
4 - UConn (UConn beat UF earlier in the year neutral court)
5 - Illinois
6 - Florida
7 - Purdue
8 - Houston
9 - Michigan St
10 - Iowa St

2025 looks right but I'd bump Duke to 1

1 - UConn
2 - Purdue
3 - Houston
4 - Tennessee
5 - Illinois
6 - Alabama
7 - Arizona
8 - UNC
9 - Iowa St
10 - Duke

I'm awarding teams for getting how when it matters.

 

[KOF98]

 

[KOF98]

I had an agent build an even more advanced statistical super model and it looks like the results are far more accurate. Duke is on top followed by UNC. Then you have Kansas, UConn, Arizona, and Kentucky in the next tier. Bunch of two-title teams after that. Good stuff. The more compute you throw at it, the more accurate the results it spits out.

 

[Im The Village Idiot]

I had an agent build an even more advanced statistical super model and it looks like the results are far more accurate. Duke is on top followed by UNC. Then you have Kansas, UConn, Arizona, and Kentucky in the next tier. Bunch of two-title teams after that. Good stuff. The more compute you throw at it, the more accurate the results it spits out.

You referring to 2022 season?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Right off the bat, statistically there is no way we were the best team in 98. Despite what our stupidest fans say, tubby coached that group up and willed that team to a title. Duke and North Carolina were both on paper much better than we were.

Arizona as well. They returned pretty much everyone from their 1997 title team. They had way more losses than they should have that year, but the talent was title level. Majerus got 'em with that triangle and two.