OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

No real signs of a turn around yet. The new'ish CEO doesn't seem to be the right guy.

2026 rev's-$46B

2029 exp rev's- $49B.

Very meh.

2027 is expected to be trough margins, so some level of catalyst on the horizon as those recover.

But with so much working in this market, I'm not messing with it.

 

[RU05]

SNAP might be a dog worth watching.

 

[RU05]

"Call's ripping right now" for PLTR.

Also note PLTR is higher now then it's post earnings pop, No giveback at all.

 

[RutgersLifeR]

Love both of them! Been holding for a long time.

Same here. Love these two and will continue to hold on for a long time.

Regarding CRWD, I also picked up FTNT, PANW, and NET for myself and my kids a few years back. Will also hold on to these for a while.

 

[RU05]

SNPS popping 10%

I sold that one a couple weeks ago.

 

[RUAldo]

Stock continues to go lower. Id rather wait till it shows signs of a bottom.

At some point it will bounce…I bought it in after hours on the last earnings debacle and sold it next day for a nice gain…but it just keeps edging lower. It’s probably not going anywhere unless it gets strong back to school action.

 

[RUAldo]

Qk look

one year chart is meh

5 year chart looks great

super cheap at 9x pe

Eps growth has moderated after a big pop. But still expected to be over 10% next year

I just sold a small financial (FLG) this could be a nice replacement

Im gonna start buying not sure how far I’ll go with the position yet. I like the AI angle if they can address the payment/finance loop from online to in-store purchases. Amazing how these companies track consumers. I was in HD the other day and now when I listen to CNBC I’m bombarded with HD commercials. CareCredit should perform well in inflationary environment with people still wiling to spend on health/wellness procedures and veterinary services.

 

[RU05]

Im gonna start buying not sure how far I’ll go with the position yet. I like the AI angle if they can address the payment/finance loop from online to in-store purchases. Amazing how these companies track consumers. I was in HD the other day and now when I listen to CNBC I’m bombarded with HD commercials. CareCredit should perform well in inflationary environment with people still wiling to spend on health/wellness procedures and veterinary services.

Podcast?

Someone mentioned how FB goes through other apps on your phone in order to cater to your interests. I've 100% noticed this to be true.

It's definitely off putting. But it also makes for a better experience. AI will be similar, the more it knows the better it will be.

 

[RU05]

I did buy CSQR.

Added to some other smaller positions, including SPCX and IOT as well.

 

[RUAldo]

Podcast?

Someone mentioned how FB goes through other apps on your phone in order to cater to your interests. I've 100% noticed this to be true.

It's definitely off putting. But it also makes for a better experience. AI will be similar, the more it knows the better it will be.

I listen to the livestream through the CNBC app. I’m noticing more and more those ads reflect places I’ve been. This targeting is why I wanted to buy Magnite at $12 few months ago only to watch it double, although I think they are more focused on TV/video ads

 

[RUAldo]

Google making beef with MSFT, Anthropic, and others over crazy AI fees and pricing structures. This is why the CRM/Anthropic product ClaudeForce doesn’t make sense to me. Integration means someone is making less money. But at the same time customer probably getting hammered in fees. AI budgets will be a problem. Google is my single largest holding and bought it 15 years ago. Just bought more today.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Google making beef with MSFT, Anthropic, and others over crazy AI fees and pricing structures. This is why the CRM/Anthropic product ClaudeForce doesn’t make sense to me. Integration means someone is making less money. But at the same time customer probably getting hammered in fees. AI budgets will be a problem. Google is my single largest holding and bought it 15 years ago. Just bought more today.

Companies and execs always seemed to gravitate to SalesForce for status. You couldn’t be considered legit if you weren’t using it. Now you’re seeing more nimble industry specific crm’s start to pop up.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Companies and execs always seemed to gravitate to SalesForce for status. You couldn’t be considered legit if you weren’t using it. Now you’re seeing more nimble industry specific crm’s start to pop up.

I've been living with a Veeva/Salesforce CRM for my entire career. LOL! I would be happy to consider new options, but once a CRM system is integrated, it's almost impossible to change.

 

[RUAldo]

Companies and execs always seemed to gravitate to SalesForce for status. You couldn’t be considered legit if you weren’t using it. Now you’re seeing more nimble industry specific crm’s start to pop up.

This SaaS rollercoaster has a long way to go. A week ago, company X was paying CRM agent force license fees and Anthropic Claude license fees. With ClaudeForce now it doesn’t need to pay both? So either CRM/Anthropic jacking up the price on ClaudeForce to cover the cannibalization or someone is losing? Integration is where all this is headed but hard to see the clear winners.

 

[RUAldo]

Anyone have thoughts on varonis? It’s got an interesting data angle in addition to security. Haven’t spent enough time researching but wanted to throw it out there.

 

[RU05]

Another stock I’ll throw into the mix on the fintech side - Synchrony Financial. Seems a bit undervalued and recently announced a partnership with OpenAI and appointed a Chief AI officer (Nimrod Barak gotta love the name). Going all in on agentic commerce and recently expanded its CareCredit product to Stripe’s
checkout for U.S. health and wellness providers. I’m intrigued by the growth in healthcare financing. Thoughts?

Follow up.

MS has an equal weight on the stock as loan growth has lagged.

 

[RUAldo]

Follow up.

MS has an equal weight on the stock as loan growth has lagged.

The lag was a big reason stock dropped in July. I saw the loan growth numbers seemed to be picking up. Which I took as a good sign and probably reflects the reality of where we are headed unless inflation gets under control. It’s getting bad…really bad…dinner for two with no booze at a mid level restaurant is over $100 now. I don’t even look at my receipt from the gas pump anymore there is no point.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Not political because you could do this with either party for many people, she’s just the best meme of it. Remarkable performance

 

[RU05]

Not political because you could do this with either party for many people, she’s just the best meme of it. Remarkable performance

Don't see anything here besides a big balls trade that paid off.

Unless there was some law passed or preferential treatment that helped NVDA?

 

[RU05]

Neither S, nor MRVL hit on earnings today.

MRVL with a tough day, but not terrible. Think they'll recoup some of that tomorrow.

S was still up 6% on the day despite a 4% sell off in after hours. Their upward trajectory continues to be in play.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Don't see anything here besides a big balls trade that paid off.

Unless there was some law passed or preferential treatment that helped NVDA?

The rest of the tweet is below. She’s made great trades, he’s done a great job of following and doubling down where he sees fit…
Every time Pelosi disclosed a new trade I added more cash and copied the trade. At a certain point I got so confident she knows what she’s doing that I started doubling down on dips and buying even higher risk higher reward call options. It worked. At a certain point she was down nearly 40% on her google calls. I bought more and instead of deep ITM calls I decided to take some OTM calls. Within a few months that trade turned into nearly $500k in profit. This portfolio that started as a joke, accidentally turned into the most profitable investing experience I’ve ever had. She’s retiring her soon, I’m now tracking every single member of congress to help me come up with trade ideas. My goal is to take this joke/portfolio to $2m by the end of the year. I’ll continue to post everything here and if you have any questions lmk in the comments, I’ll try to answer all of them.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Neither S, nor MRVL hit on earnings today.

MRVL with a tough day, but not terrible. Think they'll recoup some of that tomorrow.

S was still up 6% on the day despite a 4% sell off in after hours. Their upward trajectory continues to be in play.

MRVL was about flat after hours and then at 4:45pm the CEO was questioned about the timing for revenue of the Google deal. People were disappointed that he said FY2029 instead of FY2028. Stock down 7%, but yes, that dip may be short-lived.

 

[RUBlackout]

This SaaS rollercoaster has a long way to go. A week ago, company X was paying CRM agent force license fees and Anthropic Claude license fees. With ClaudeForce now it doesn’t need to pay both? So either CRM/Anthropic jacking up the price on ClaudeForce to cover the cannibalization or someone is losing? Integration is where all this is headed but hard to see the clear winners.

It’s a “partnership” and both will get paid. Anthropic has a massive partnership with AWS who invested billions in them. When you use Anthropic it’s over AWS cloud who is getting paid in any deal from r the compute capacity. This is very common but only way these deals get done is that benefits each company to get paid.
All AI needs are data and compute so that’s where all the partnerships are focused.
Again why I think Google comes out ahead in all of this because they own their own data centers and have a massive moat around data indexing over the years with search plus all their algorithms. They will just find the best ways to continue the ad monetization.

 

[rurahrah000]

MRVL was about flat after hours and then at 4:45pm the CEO was questioned about the timing for revenue of the Google deal. People were disappointed that he said FY2029 instead of FY2028. Stock down 7%, but yes, that dip may be short-lived.

I'll be adding tomorrow. This was a really good earnings report

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'll be adding tomorrow. This was a really good earnings report

Sounds good. I did buy those Oct calls, but a small position. I could add or perhaps dump for something with a longer duration. Maybe Jan 2027?

 

[RU206]

Looks like a potential rate hike is coming soon.

 

[RU05]

Looks like a potential rate hike is coming soon.

Some still think possibly not

But im getting crushed today. Partly on rate hike fears. Partly on give back from yesterdays big upward moves.

 

[RUAldo]

Some still think possibly not

But im getting crushed today. Partly on rate hike fears. Partly on give back from yesterdays big upward moves.

Not much seemed to work today except Mag7. Lots of stocks down…precious metals down…. Even biotech gave a lot back. Interesting to see med devices show some life.

Bought more Alphabet at the open. Been building position in HACK ETF which has PANW and NET as large holdings.

listened to cnbc squawk Asia on road trip last night and China tech is going to be a real problem…their open models, chips, robotics, batteries, etc. are impressive and have the attention of the EU, India and other parts of the world.

 

[RU Cheese]

It’s a “partnership” and both will get paid. Anthropic has a massive partnership with AWS who invested billions in them. When you use Anthropic it’s over AWS cloud who is getting paid in any deal from r the compute capacity. This is very common but only way these deals get done is that benefits each company to get paid.
All AI needs are data and compute so that’s where all the partnerships are focused.
Again why I think Google comes out ahead in all of this because they own their own data centers and have a massive moat around data indexing over the years with search plus all their algorithms. They will just find the best ways to continue the ad monetization.

I don't disagree.

The Anthropic / SF collaboration is a very weird one. SF isn't AWS. They get accelerated access to Claude / AI in their platform, which is important differentiator vs. Veeva (at least in Life Sciences). But what are they giving up? Anthropic will be able to train its models on all of that CRM data, and in the future, they will absolutely use that to compete against SF and other CRMs. They estimated a $30T TAM because they see themselves displacing other industries. Does it help SF today? Probably. Long run? Doubt it.

Anyone who's thought about this stuff in a corporate strategy setting and landed on one model / partner is simply a silly goose. Models are far too dynamic right now, and it's natural to expect different ones may excel at different things. That, coupled with the strategic and financial flexibility to insulate against token cost uncertainty, is how every corporation should be moving forward.

Google is always a player. Gemini is good and having cloud and GPU capacity makes them intriguing provider. They also have very good, well at least not crazy, leadership.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

I don't disagree.

The Anthropic / SF collaboration is a very weird one. SF isn't AWS. They get accelerated access to Claude / AI in their platform, which is important differentiator vs. Veeva (at least in Life Sciences). But what are they giving up? Anthropic will be able to train its models on all of that CRM data, and in the future, they will absolutely use that to compete against SF and other CRMs. They estimated a $30T TAM because they see themselves displacing other industries. Does it help SF today? Probably. Long run? Doubt it.

Anyone who's thought about this stuff in a corporate strategy setting and landed on one model / partner is simply a silly goose. Models are far too dynamic right now, and it's natural to expect different ones may excel at different things. That, coupled with the strategic and financial flexibility to insulate against token cost uncertainty, is how every corporation should be moving forward.

Google is always a player. Gemini is good and having cloud and GPU capacity makes them intriguing provider. They also have very good, well at least not crazy, leadership.

Small company here but we’ve built a team of agents for staff to use for various tasks. Our dev set it up so that several different model versions from Anthropic, ChatGPT, etc can be accessed for the work depending on how in depth it is. People won’t be burning expensive tokens on inane jobs. Model agnostic is the way to go