The Lack of Coverage Allowed by Schiano is Wild
- Thread starter Caliknight
- Start date
Amazing that othee than UMass and Howard that people are repeatedly posting that there are other gimmes on the schedule.
Posted in another thread about games and talent diferentials and the rest appear toss ups or negative and this gimme W's posting rings of trying to set up the season as a perceived failure.
Posted in another thread about games and talent diferentials and the rest appear toss ups or negative and this gimme W's posting rings of trying to set up the season as a perceived failure.
Nope, Safety Linebacker Hybrid, Ofurie is one of the guys battling there
Charlie had worked with linebackers before. If a system is too complicated for an experienced coach to learn and be able to coach, it is too complicated for a player to learn and be able to apply in game situations.
It is just math, even we only had a 30% chance to win each conference game, we would have been expected to win between 2 and 3 games, 2.7 to be specific.
Nope lb hybrid pretty much what I posted. Explanation from From South Dakota:
- “Stud” hybrid: The nickel back (the extra defensive back who replaces a traditional linebacker in nickel personnel). “Stud” is a common nickname for a bigger, more physical nickel hybrid—often aligned toward the strong side, boundary, or tight end. He is used as a primary run fitter (he comes up to help stop the run).
- “Rover” weak safety: A safety (one of the two deep safeties or a hybrid safety) nicknamed “Rover.” Here it specifically means the weak-side safety. The Rover is also designated as a primary run fitter (he aggressively fits the run from the weak side).
You’re doing the math wrong. If they are 33% likely to win each of 3 other games, that means they are 99% to win one of them. 33x3. It’s called ‘additive probabilistic certainty’. Look it up.
Syn: Schiano Win Projection Theorem.
It’s used for determining his salary, rather than actual wins.
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What does the BC game several years ago have to do with this one?
Absolutely nothing..
RU had no starting QB for that game due to Vedral’s injury and was rotating QBs. The OL and WRs are also much better now than that game. Defense is worse but BC has gone backwards since then too.
I’m thinking it’s going to be a pick’em type line because BC isn’t good.
If you can’t find 7 wins in those 9 games “I don’t know what to tell ya”.
I guess it depends what you meant by “find”.
There are plenty of games on the schedule we “could win”, on a given day. But that doesn’t mean we “should” win 7 of them. The current odds say we “should” win 4.5 games. 2 automatics. 2 toss ups where we’re given a slight edge and 8 additional games where a lot would have to go right for us to pull of the upset.
Everywhere except Rutgers. Schiano has always as far as I can remember hired guys connected to him at all levels. That’s why this stands out as so different to me.
He let them bring in completely new position staffs with no prior relationships to him? I don’t recall that. He’s been less involved in the offense in 2.0. I was talking about the defense.
They weren’t connected to him. Harasymiak was under Fleck but that’s not the same thing
First, you were wrong about Johansen running his own defense. Greg hired him for a reason and allowed him to bring in guys he worked with in the past to install and run it.
I simply mentioned the STUD position as his twist on the 4-2-5 alignment to differentiate it from Harasymiak’s and Smith’s defenses.
Then you said that the STUD was a DE/LB hybrid which is dead wrong. Then you laughed at the idea of Noonan coaching a safety, the STUD is part of the back 5. Now you are trying to twist what you said to make it fit, unsuccessfully.
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Played around with ChatGPT to get early season lines and odds of win totals. Very, speculative obviously but overall I think a pretty clean picture..
Using Bill Connelly’s final preseason SP+ ratings from August 13 and a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, we can create a clean lookahead line for essentially the entire Rutgers schedule. SP+ currently has Rutgers No. 61 at +2.7 and projects 5.4 wins. Rutgers’ official schedule confirms the home/road locations below.
| Date | Game | SP+ lookahead spread |
| Sept. 3 | UMass | Rutgers -38 |
| Sept. 11 | @ Boston College | Rutgers -2.5 / -3 |
| Sept. 19 | USC | USC -12.5 |
| Sept. 25 | Howard | Rutgers ~-30* |
| Oct. 3 | Indiana | Indiana -20.5 |
| Oct. 17 | @ Maryland | Maryland -5 |
| Oct. 24 | @ Northwestern | Northwestern -5 |
| Oct. 31 | Michigan | Michigan -12 |
| Nov. 7 | @ Wisconsin | Wisconsin -3.5 |
| Nov. 14 | Nebraska | Nebraska -4 |
| Nov. 21 | @ Penn State | Penn State -16 |
| Nov. 28 | Michigan State | Rutgers -3 |
*Howard is FCS and therefore isn’t in the FBS SP+ table, so that’s an estimate rather than a direct SP+ calculation.
The Rutgers season suddenly makes a lot more sense
I’d divide it into four buckets:
Very likely wins:
UMass
Howard
Rutgers favored, but real games:
@ Boston College RU -3
Michigan State RU -3
Games Rutgers can absolutely win:
@ Wisconsin +3.5
Nebraska +4
@ Maryland +5
@ Northwestern +5
Major upsets:
Michigan +12
USC +12.5
Penn State +16
Indiana +20.5
That’s a fascinating setup relative to a 4.5/5.5 win-total discussion.
They have two games that should be close to automatic, two more where they’re actually favored, and four additional games where they’re only about 3.5–5 point dogs. They don’t need some crazy upset of Indiana or Penn State to get to six.
The path to a bowl could simply be:
UMass + Howard + BC + Michigan State = 4
Then go 2-2 against:
Wisconsin / Nebraska / Maryland / Northwestern
…and you’re 6-6 without beating anybody SP+ currently ranks in the top 32.
In fact, SP+ itself landing at 5.4 projected wins is telling. They’re basically sitting directly on the 5-to-6-win knife edge.
The games I’d circle
Boston College is enormous. If Rutgers wins there, they’re overwhelmingly likely to be 3-0 outside the USC game by the end of September. BC is only 82nd in SP+ at -2.5, compared with Rutgers at +2.7.
Then Michigan State at home might be the sneaky biggest game on the entire schedule. SP+ has MSU 62nd at +2.2, essentially identical to Rutgers, which is why home field makes Rutgers about -3.
And Wisconsin is much more winnable than the name implies. SP+ has Wisconsin only 53rd at +3.8, barely one point better than Rutgers on a neutral field. Camp Randall is basically what’s producing that -3.5.
So if you’re looking at this from the perspective of Rutgers over 4.5 wins, I like the structure quite a bit. Over 5.5 is a much more interesting decision because you’re effectively betting that they win BC/MSU and then grab two of those four middle-tier Big Ten games.
We’ll see what it looks like on game day. From video from South Dakota I saw it looks more like a hybrid LB than a walk down safety.
Reading through the thread, the use of STUD in Johansen's defense does twist the long accepted meaning of STUD. Let's just move on.
We can move on now.
The schedule not that hard 6-6 should be minimumn
Anything less and Greg should be canned
Anything less and Greg should be canned
I don’t disagree that theoretically at this point 6 wins should be the minimum, but can you break down the schedule and point to the 6 games you expect to win?
The reason doesn’t matter. The dynamics on D are different this year regardless. Greg might be a DC by “trade” but he’s also a pretty smart business man when it comes to managing people (def a relative strength anyway). There have been times he couldn’t resist inserting himself, but it’s way different stepping in to do that with position staff that you go way back with. These are all (except one hold back) Johansen’s guys. Again - I’m not implying that the path taken to get to this point was Greg’s plan A but it’s where we are right now.
Yup - I agree. 5.5 would’ve probably been the preseason spread I’d have assigned. But look 1 every one of these teams can turn out better or worse than projected. That’s why for now, I’m more focused on how much progress the D can show and how much stability the offense can show after its best season in a long time.
Yeah - that’s the point I was trying to make. 6 wouldn’t be “great” but it would be solid enough to sell as progress from the rebuild / branding perspective. 5 would be a lot harder in my opinion.
Joe had connections to Greg. A bit less direct than the others but he did not hand pick the staff under him. Most of the defensive position coaches had deep rooted ties to Greg. That’s what’s different. And again - the outcome clearly wasn’t Greg’s Plan A but at this point, that’s not going to be relevant to any decision on his short term future (outside of any impact that the delayed hiring had on his portal haul). Johansen was hired to be our DC. Kirk is our OC. If they have good years - Greg is going to be back. Zinn won’t be saying - Greg doesn’t “deserve it” because of X, Y, Z from the past or rationalizing that if he did A and B earlier we might’ve won more games. Won’t matter. If Kirk and Johansen both have years that evaluate as positive individually - Greg will be retained. Period. It’s unknown exactly what that record would be if it happened. But that’s the reality of where we are at.
I completely get the skepticism. The only point I was making is that to keep the same level of micro managing grip he’s applied to past defenses would require a different approach than in the past which would force him to pivot away from other management principles he’s applied in the past. He’s generally a decent CEO in terms of personnel management, oversight of locker room temperature, etc. I’d go as far as to say that’s always been a relative strength. He’s probably smart enough to know if he inserts himself in a dictator like way with the staff he’s set up there - it’s not going to go well for him. Too much sub faction potential there with these being guys Johansen has a close history with. I think he’s going to have to be at least somewhat more hands off. It won’t be received well if he acts like he knows more than all of them who have the past experience working together. We’ll see.
With Kirk - he kind of got lucky. He and Kirk go way back, and Kirk is working out. I think he lets Kirk do way more on his own than he allowed on offense under 1.0, but he’s comfortable enough with Kirk to insert himself when he feels like it even if completely inappropriate. Offense was way easier for him to step back in though. He never really thought of himself as a guru for that - he’s just risk averse. With defense - he’s of course, arrogant and thinks he knows better than everyone. Much harder for him to turn over the keys there. I do think he’ll be at least somewhat more passive now.
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Dictator types aren't in the business of giving up control. It's who they are and what they do.
And that killed interest may play into why this "FOOTBALL" board is littered with crap posts 17 days from the opening game. No buzz. No excitement, except on multiple Off Topic Threads.
This is the only active football thread with multiple replies. Threads started by Richie and Alec fall to bottom with no replies. I posted an interesting topic on Logan Ryan (yeah, he's old), and it go zero replies. Richie's thread on Scrimmage No. 1 Recap got one reply.
I see it has had several replies on the Round Table. No discussion of BTN football camps.
We have:
Hurricanes, Dead people, 2027 Super Bowl, Serial Killers, Stocks, Vacations, , etc.
100 percent. Richie makes the most of the chicken shite he's fed but when you have such little access or ability to post what is seen by any number of people, not to mention the restraints put on his own SM dept, these are the types of threads you get two weeks before the opener. There is nothing to talk about. For a program starving for attention, he's doing it the complete wrong way. But that's all he knows. It's all just glorified gym class. What wins and loses games are plays made on the field when it matters and in game strategy decisions. Obviously practice is very important but showing clips of plays isn't going to have one ounce of impact on gameday. But it may gain you some young fans.
He likes control, yes, but his previous “dictatorships” have been mostly voluntary marked with only minimal resistance (if any). Maintaining strained relationships with assistant coaches behind the scenes isn’t his MO either. He just eliminates them. Like with Gleeson. He can’t do that in this case. It’s the whole staff - Woodley is an extension of Johansen basically. And so on. Not only the DC. I’m not saying it won’t kill Greg to take a back seat on D, I’m sure it will, but something for sure has to give somewhat here. This arrangement if different.
It was pretty obvious the Gleeson offense had GS's fingerprints all over it. It was GS's wet dream. Pure low risk punt offense. Just like he likes it. He can do what he wants. He's the head coach and he sets the direction and strategy.
Sure, you coach the d or o. But it's how I want you to coach it. It's how he's always operated. I don't see why that would change now. Prior affiliation or not. Leopards don't change their spots and if he was going to change, it would have happened a long time ago. He's at the end of his career now.
Sure, you coach the d or o. But it's how I want you to coach it. It's how he's always operated. I don't see why that would change now. Prior affiliation or not. Leopards don't change their spots and if he was going to change, it would have happened a long time ago. He's at the end of his career now.
Richie has podcasts to interpret Greg's statements. Absolutely crazy
It is amusing that we have both kinds of Schiano doubters in this thread.. 1 says we won't win 4 and the other type implies we should win 7... thereby setting up a loss of a season even we make a bowl game.
Because one guy did everything he could to raise money and improve the NIL situation, while the other was a lot more passive about it. And the results matter too, Pike had Ace and Dylan, who if I need to remind you were two EXTREMELY TALENTED players, and they still struggled. Rutgers basketball has had a rough few years, while football has won seven games in two of the last three seasons. I don’t think the situations are really comparable.
round table thread on this is littered with excuses and stretches to justify it. sad and pathetic imho, zero justification for it and I'm tired of hearing 'other programs do it's because it's not all equal. Just drove through Indiana and Ohio and all I heard on the radio were camp reports on local talk radio. The number of schools that restrict the way we do is not a lot, not even close. I did a quick internet search and we're the outlier.
If what Richie said is true about Keli being impressed by Greg's accomplishments with what resources he had, she's the wrong person for the job.
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but you are making excuses and NIL has nothing to do with the majority of losses we've had.
We used a different QB on each of the first three offensive plays of the game.
This will be a tight game eventhough IMHO we have a more talented team. The combination of the emotional "red bandana" game, the anniversary of 9-11 and the fact that we'll probably play down to their level this will be a one score game in the 4th quarter.
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