Will BR Clock LWE to Open?

[Alexander33]

Chicagoland Top 20

1. Mt. Carmel (Until proven otherwise)
2. Loyola (Big rebound season under Holecek)
3. Brother Rice (Enough has been said in this thread)
4. Nazareth (Another CCL team)
5. Batavia
6. St. Francis (Yes, the Green Division is also very good)
7. Lincoln-Way East (No, Brother Rice will not blow them out as L-W East gets back to basics)
8. St. Rita
9. Montini
10. Fenwick
11. Joliet Catholic
12. Marist (The record won't show it, but they are much improved) (10 of top 12 are CCL)
13. Lockport (Although one never knows for sure from one year to the next)
14. Glenbard West
15. Maine South
16. Providence
17. Oswego
18. Cary-Grove (Always a playoff threat)
19. Prairie Ridge (Lost by three points to last year's 5A champion)
20. Lake Zurich (Can Dragan Teonic finally make a deep playoff run at his new school?)

These rankings are according to..... me.

Rocket Nation: I have Rochester ranked 25th in the state, second only to East St. Louis (although second by a wide margin) out of those teams not located in the Chicagoland area.

 

[McCaravan]

Chicagoland Top 20

1. Mt. Carmel (Until proven otherwise)
2. Loyola (Big rebound season under Holecek)
3. Brother Rice (Enough has been said in this thread)
4. Nazareth (Another CCL team)
5. Batavia
6. St. Francis (Yes, the Green Division is also very good)
7. Lincoln-Way East (No, Brother Rice will not blow them out as L-W East gets back to basics)
8. St. Rita
9. Montini
10. Fenwick
11. Joliet Catholic
12. Marist (The record won't show it, but they are much improved) (10 of top 12 are CCL)
13. Lockport (Although one never knows for sure from one year to the next)
14. Glenbard West
15. Maine South
16. Providence
17. Oswego
18. Cary-Grove (Always a playoff threat)
19. Prairie Ridge (Lost by three points to last year's 5A champion)
20. Lake Zurich (Can Dragan Teonic finally make a deep playoff run at his new school?)

These rankings are according to..... me.

Rocket Nation: I have Rochester ranked 25th in the state, second only to East St. Louis (although second by a wide margin) out of those teams not located in the Chicagoland area.

Well you ranked Marist #1 last year so this is a slight improvement. The big head scratchers this year is Marist even being in the top 20.....Rita being in the top 10, they should switch places with Providence...Fenwick being #10, they are replacing I think 17 starters....JCA way too high and the JCA faithful will probably agree, LA at #2 is a reach....Where is Bolingbrook? And the biggest head scratcher is Montini at #9 behind Rita even, they are probably top 5. Games have to be played and your list your rules but I will respectfully disagree with several of these...

 

[LWN_Pheonix]

Well you ranked Marist #1 last year so this is a slight improvement. The big head scratchers this year is Marist even being in the top 20.....Rita being in the top 10, they should switch places with Providence...Fenwick being #10, they are replacing I think 17 starters....JCA way too high and the JCA faithful will probably agree, LA at #2 is a reach....Where is Bolingbrook? And the biggest head scratcher is Montini at #9 behind Rita even, they are probably top 5. Games have to be played and your list your rules but I will respectfully disagree with several of these...

I am going to talk in code here that all of us will understand except the person I am talking about

some peoples “needs” are very “special”

Marist was the clear favorite last years pre season

 

[Topiarydan1]

Well you ranked Marist #1 last year so this is a slight improvement. The big head scratchers this year is Marist even being in the top 20.....Rita being in the top 10, they should switch places with Providence...Fenwick being #10, they are replacing I think 17 starters....JCA way too high and the JCA faithful will probably agree, LA at #2 is a reach....Where is Bolingbrook? And the biggest head scratcher is Montini at #9 behind Rita even, they are probably top 5. Games have to be played and your list your rules but I will respectfully disagree with several of these...

Below are your prior year's preductions below -
This year MC is a much safer bet. Frankly I don't see your 12th Marist getting 5 wins
1. Marist
2. Mt. Carmel
3. Lincoln-Way East
4. East St. Louis
5. Loyola
6. Glenbard West
7. Batavia
8. Nazareth
9. Maine South
10. Lockport

 

[Alexander33]

Chicagoland Top 20

1. Mt. Carmel (Until proven otherwise)
2. Loyola (Big rebound season under Holecek)
3. Brother Rice (Enough has been said in this thread)
4. Nazareth (Another CCL team)
5. Batavia
6. St. Francis (Yes, the Green Division is also very good)
7. Lincoln-Way East (No, Brother Rice will not blow them out as L-W East gets back to basics)
8. St. Rita
9. Montini
10. Fenwick
11. Joliet Catholic
12. Marist (The record won't show it, but they are much improved) (10 of top 12 are CCL)
13. Lockport (Although one never knows for sure from one year to the next)
14. Glenbard West
15. Maine South
16. Providence
17. Oswego
18. Cary-Grove (Always a playoff threat)
19. Prairie Ridge (Lost by three points to last year's 5A champion)
20. Lake Zurich (Can Dragan Teonic finally make a deep playoff run at his new school?)

These rankings are according to..... me.

Rocket Nation: I have Rochester ranked 25th in the state, second only to East St. Louis (although second by a wide margin) out of those teams not located in the Chicagoland area.

Teams not in the Chicagoland Area

1. East St. Louis (2nd overall)
2. Rochester (25th)
3. Normal (35th)
4. Washington
5. Belvidere North
6. Peoria
7. Sacred Heart - Griffin
8. Breese Central
9. Lena-Winslow
10. Byron

 

[rocketnation]

Teams not in the Chicagoland Area

1. East St. Louis (2nd overall)
2. Rochester (25th)
3. Normal (35th)
4. Washington
5. Belvidere North
6. Peoria
7. Sacred Heart - Griffin
8. Breese Central
9. Lena-Winslow
10. Byron

Is Morris considered to be Chicagoland?

Cahokia and Mt Zion are two more Downstate teams to watch this year.

 

[Alexander33]

Is Morris considered to be Chicagoland?

Cahokia and Mt Zion are two more Downstate teams to watch this year.

Yes, Morris is considered to be Chicagoland. At least for high school football purposes, any school that geographically meets both of the following criteria is considered to be in the Chicagoland area.

* DeKalb and east of DeKalb
* Kankakee and north of Kankakee

That seems to be how EdgyTim defines which teams are eligible for his Chicagoland Top 30, so I followed suit.

 

[McCaravan]

Below are your prior year's preductions below -
This year MC is a much safer bet. Frankly I don't see your 12th Marist getting 5 wins
1. Marist
2. Mt. Carmel
3. Lincoln-Way East
4. East St. Louis
5. Loyola
6. Glenbard West
7. Batavia
8. Nazareth
9. Maine South
10. Lockport

@Alexander33 a very good season for Marist would be 5-4 with loses to MC, BR, LA and Montini. A likely season for Marist will be 4-5 with an additional loss to St. Laurence where they are early underdogs. An unlikely but possible 2-7 season could happen depending on how they do against Simeon's speed in week one and if COM rebounds from Taylor transferring with their new QB from Warren. I know your a Marist fan but they have very little this year talent wise outside a few good athletes.

 

[LWN_Pheonix]

@Alexander33 a very good season for Marist would be 5-4 with loses to MC, BR, LA and Montini. A likely season for Marist will be 4-5 with an additional loss to St. Laurence where they are early underdogs. An unlikely but possible 2-7 season could happen depending on how they do against Simeon's speed in week one and if COM rebounds from Taylor transferring with their new QB from Warren. I know your a Marist fan but they have very little this year talent wise outside a few good athletes.

BUT THEOR COACHING!!!!

 

[Topiarydan1]

BUT THEOR COACHING!!!!

If Marist goes 5-4 or above then it would be all about coaching. Marist has a Junior QB with I believe little experience. They have a nice returning RB and one solid WR and two OLs. Other than that lot of new faces. On D I think they have 3 maybe 4 returning starters. Like McCaravan aid a L vs St Laurence is possible along with Simeon.

 

[Alexander33]

@Alexander33 a very good season for Marist would be 5-4 with loses to MC, BR, LA and Montini. A likely season for Marist will be 4-5 with an additional loss to St. Laurence where they are early underdogs. An unlikely but possible 2-7 season could happen depending on how they do against Simeon's speed in week one and if COM rebounds from Taylor transferring with their new QB from Warren. I know your a Marist fan but they have very little this year talent wise outside a few good athletes.

"The record won't show it".

I do not disagree with you that 5-4 is probably the best regular season record Marist can hope for. That is why I wrote their record won't show much, if any, improvement over last year's 4-5. Still, that would be three losses to defending state champions and a fourth to Loyola, which has won a state title in three of the last four years. A team can be very good and come away with a 5-4 record against that schedule. Marist will be playing this year in the toughest division within the toughest conference in the state.

In truth, I am no more of a fan of Marist than any other team in the state. I have never set foot on their campus and have never met anybody associated with the team, player or coach. I am merely providing an honest preseason opinion.

I have personally developed a forecasting method that would fall under the general heading of "exponential smoothing". Like most modeling techniques, it becomes more accurate as the season progresses. I've had many top-ten finishes in the King's Challenge, where I use my actual name (Pierre Garesche) rather than my user name (Alexander33). Here are the preseason spreads using that model.

Marist by 14 over Simeon
Marist by 19 over King
Montini by 11 over Marist
Mt. Carmel by 21-1/2 over Marist
Marist by 32-1/2 over Marmion
Loyola by 10 over Marist
Marist by 3 over Carmel
Marist by 8 over St. Laurence
Brother Rice by 16 over Marist

So, I am forecasting a 5-4 record with a last place finish in the Blue Division of the CCL. With the games against Carmel and St. Laurence likely to be closely contested, a 4-5 record would not be surprising. The difference between this year and last year is that a 4-5 record would put Marist in the 8A playoffs this year. Once there, with the right matchups I could see them making a run to the 8A quarterfinals or possibly even semifinals; much like St. Laurence did in 6A last year.

 

[McCaravan]

"The record won't show it".

I do not disagree with you that 5-4 is probably the best regular season record Marist can hope for. That is why I wrote their record won't show much, if any, improvement over last year's 4-5. Still, that would be three losses to defending state champions and a fourth to Loyola, which has won a state title in three of the last four years. A team can be very good and come away with a 5-4 record against that schedule. Marist will be playing this year in the toughest division within the toughest conference in the state.

In truth, I am no more of a fan of Marist than any other team in the state. I have never set foot on their campus and have never met anybody associated with the team, player or coach. I am merely providing an honest preseason opinion.

I have personally developed a forecasting method that would fall under the general heading of "exponential smoothing". Like most modeling techniques, it becomes more accurate as the season progresses. I've had many top-ten finishes in the King's Challenge, where I use my actual name (Pierre Garesche) rather than my user name (Alexander33). Here are the preseason spreads using that model.

Marist by 14 over Simeon
Marist by 19 over King
Montini by 11 over Marist
Mt. Carmel by 21-1/2 over Marist
Marist by 32-1/2 over Marmion
Loyola by 10 over Marist
Marist by 3 over Carmel
Marist by 8 over St. Laurence
Brother Rice by 16 over Marist

So, I am forecasting a 5-4 record with a last place finish in the Blue Division of the CCL. With the games against Carmel and St. Laurence likely to be closely contested, a 4-5 record would not be surprising. The difference between this year and last year is that a 4-5 record would put Marist in the 8A playoffs this year. Once there, with the right matchups I could see them making a run to the 8A quarterfinals or possibly even semifinals; much like St. Laurence did in 6A last year.

Very well said. But I will respectfully disagree that they make any such run because they aren't going to be very good. Last years Laurence team had more talent and an easier path in 6A then Marist will in 8A. Talent on Talent Laurence beats them. Again games have to be played, but I wouldn't rank them in any top 20 based on the talent they have and their likeliness of losing 4 games, probably 5 games.

 

[Silver Rain]

exponential smoothing

Please apply your method to the Caravan's game with the Flyers. And show your work.

 

[MustangFB]

Word on the street is some LWE people connected to the program tried to get a stud from up north but the family told them to cut it out or they would report them to the IHSA.

They are got a QB and a WR from Stevenson

 

[McCaravan]

While this was probably the right move for him all in all if Jonas Williams had stayed at Bolingbrook and they had the same path as last years team they would have most definitely beat Fremd with ease I'm guessing and I would have liked to have seen that semi vs MC.

 

[eagles2k3!]

They are got a QB and a WR from Stevenson

Not who I was talking about but it doesn't surprise me.

 

[Cross Bones]

While this was probably the right move for him all in all if Jonas Williams had stayed at Bolingbrook and they had the same path as last years team they would have most definitely beat Fremd with ease I'm guessing and I would have liked to have seen that semi vs MC.

We lost to Fremd due to special teams mishaps and not containing O'Brien from both sides, not a lack of points. Not recovering a kickoff, knee down on a punt in our own territory, and XPs missed was a potential 20 point swing without changing anything on O or D.

 

[vester71]

They are got a QB and a WR from Stevenson

Is this one true?

 

[WestCoastHoya]

Is this one true?

Not sure about the WR, but Stevenson star rising Soph QB did transfer to LWE

 

[crusaderpride]

Very well said. But I will respectfully disagree that they make any such run because they aren't going to be very good. Last years Laurence team had more talent and an easier path in 6A then Marist will in 8A. Talent on Talent Laurence beats them. Again games have to be played, but I wouldn't rank them in any top 20 based on the talent they have and their likeliness of losing 4 games, probably 5 games.

I think by playoff time though, there are a lot of teams that will not want to be drawing them in the playoffs. They won’t make a deep run, but they’ll be a very tough team to play.

 

[crusaderpride]

LWE is like MS. They will always be LWE. Anyone who says running clock or doesn’t think it will be a very competitive game will regret their words.

 

[Carmine Evergreen]

LWE always has big numbers, but that hasn't been translated to state championships. The most dominant program in that part of the state is WILMINGTON