Travis Branham crystal ball Kentucky

rivercatinfl

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UCLA? I admit I haven't been following this one, just checking in here and there (and this thread was so hijacked I started to ignore it). But I don't recall UCLA being in that mix - just today in this thread it was Michigan, then UL vs. UK, and suddenly some Twitter dude says just UCLA and Michigan? Now another poster just said UK is out?

So much for "94% crystal ball"...
I’ve learned these guys projecting where players are going don’t know much.
they get the info first when it’s a done deal but other than that they are guessing.
look at the nba mock drafts. Other than the top 6 or 7 picks they missed by a large margin.
if K comes great sans the 15 minute restriction and 2 year commitment great, if not we are in pretty good shape with this roster. And it looks like Pope is making progress with some HS guys for next year.
 

*Fox2Monk*

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Dodgers and Lakers are way higher on the totem pole of popularity in LA compared to the Rams. Like not even close
I’m not saying they are but they are definitely way more popular than UCLA sports will ever be outside of March Madness and only then if they are good.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

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Pope has perhaps the biggest budget in the NIL era. That changes the game completely. And renders these old comparisons obsolete imo. The guys you listed may have been in rebuilds or just needed more time to turn things around with their HS recruiting. With the biggest budget and the impact of the portal, Pope is in a completely different situation where results are expected immediately.
Hurley definitely rebuilt UConn for sure, they were really down the last couple years of Ollie.
 

TheResistance

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LMAO WE ARE SAVED!

MeManBoy

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Regarding Nikola Kusturica.... I am positive that UK is not "out" of the race. UK has made an offer that would pay him slightly above NCAA market value for year 1 for the role he'd play - given his team wants minute restrictions and the year to focus on preparing physically and mentally for year 2. Once he opts into the contract for year 2, he'd get another payment very soon after that would make year 1 compensation the highest amount by a good bit....but he will need to commit to year 2 for that to kick in. This is because there is no way to lock a minor into an agreement past his 18th birthday without him opting into that agreement. So if he'll commit to 2 years at UK, he'll earn around 10-11 million for the 2 seaosons.... which is the highest offer he'll have into a system that is perfectly suited for him. But the negotiating is done. UK gave its highest and final offer a couple days before Dusty May went to the Mavs. But tell me, if UCLA is so enticing to him....why the wait? I mean, clearly Mick Cronin is the amazing coach he clearly wants to play for if you listen to the ******** rumors being floated. So do it man....go for it. The truth is, UK is involved and in the running, but without a guarantee of that 2nd seasons, UK doesn't really need the kid and certainly isn't going to be tricked into playing big money for a year 1 when the kid isn't gonna be here for year 2... or wants to renegotiate from the portal for a year 2. This agent knows there's no rush. They won't show up on campus for 2 months anyway, so he's got a few weeks before the time to start the F1 process is critical. If you ask me, the less you hear, the better it is for UK, but it's obviously not a sure thing. He could end up going somewhere else for year 1 and then UK would likely just recruit him out of the portal for the 2nd year when we'd really need him anyway. And that's what all the other schools also know. If you can't lock in year 2, there will be big money to pay to keep him out of the portal. Ain't nobody got time for that.
 
Aug 23, 2024
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Pope has perhaps the biggest budget in the NIL era. That changes the game completely. And renders these old comparisons obsolete imo. The guys you listed may have been in rebuilds or just needed more time to turn things around with their HS recruiting. With the biggest budget and the impact of the portal, Pope is in a completely different situation where results are expected immediately.
The NIL budget is just a guess and it is questionable that it would provide any more of a recruiting advantage than UK always had based on history and tradition. I listed numerous examples of high profile coaches who stepped into good situations but still got off to slow starts.
 
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Aug 23, 2024
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The so-so winning % would be garner more patience if:
-The losses did not include several embarrassing blowouts and indifferent play
-He was 40 and not 53 or so
-There were no very weird post-game interactions
-The recruiting was on par with other top teams
The same people who always go on that there is no such thing as moral victories are the first to put extra weight on margin in a loss.

He got a late start in part due to his playing career. Tenure of coaching experience is the better measure.

The weird stuff is mainly just the opinion of weird observers.

The recruiting has actually rated out pretty well and is trending upward.
 
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The basis was overall career winning %. We keep leaving out the part that Mark Pope is about to turn 54 years old. He's not some young up and comer who just needs a shot at a legit program. He's done nothing virtually everywhere he's been, and now he's at Kentucky hoping he can turn into Danny Hurley as he approaches his mid 50s. That's needle in a haystack level thinking, and it's entirely more likely he becomes Matt Doherty or Mike White than he does Dean Smith or Billy Donovan.
I could have made a list of bad coaches with terrible winning percentages but it would have been just as pointless as what you did. Age is not nearly as relevant as coaching tenure. I'll not try to argue what is more likely. I have only sought to point out what is possible. I have not tried to make predictions as to what lies ahead and I definitely make no guarantees. Time will tell and crapping on him only hurts our potential.
 
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kyhankypanky

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The NIL budget is just a guess and it is questionable that it would provide any more of a recruiting advantage than UK always had based on history and tradition. I listed numerous examples of high profile coaches who stepped into good situations but still got off to slow starts.
Yes, I understand that. My point is that it took longer to turn things around back then. There were very very few upperclassmen transfers. Those coaches needed years to restock their program. Now it can be done immediately, especially with a big portal budget like we have. I don’t really think this is even a debate. The old examples are irrelevant with the changes.
 
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Yes, I understand that. My point is that it took longer to turn things around back then. There were very very few upperclassmen transfers. Those coaches needed years to restock their program. Now it can be done immediately, especially with a big portal budget like we have. I don’t really think this is even a debate. The old examples are irrelevant with the changes.
You are making the assumption they all walked into disastrous rebuild scenarios which is not the case and I have already provided numerous examples of that. You are ignoring the injury issues which Pope has had to deal with as well.
 

PastorofMuppets82

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So, just for arguments sake. Let's look at a coach we know pretty well who happens to have a two year sample size, rebuilding a program with previous success (not on our level obviously)

Calipari took over Arkansas the same year Pope took over UK. Below is the Arkansas record 4 years prior to Cal taking over (starting after Covid, the start of NIL and portal movement seasons included)

2020–21Eric Musselman25–713–42ndNCAA Division I Elite Eight
2021–22Eric Musselman28–913–54thNCAA Division I Elite Eight
2022–23Eric Musselman22–148–10T–9thNCAA Division I Sweet Sixteen
2023–24Eric Musselman16–176–12T–11th

Below is the UK record 4 years prior to Pope taking over (same time frame)
2020–21John Calipari9–168–98th
2021–22John Calipari26–814–43rdNCAA Division I first round
2022–23John Calipari22–1212–63rdNCAA Division I second round
2023–24John Calipari23–1013–5T-2ndNCAA Division I first round

Players Cal took with him from UK's 23-24 roster for his "start" at Arkansas:
(Transfers from UK) DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero, Zovnimir Ivisic
(HS players recruited to UK who followed Cal to Arkansas) Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, Billy Richmond

Players UK took with him from BYU's 23-24 roster for his "start" at UK
(Transfers from BYU) Jaxson Robinson
(HS players recruited to BYU who followed Pope to UK) Collin Chandler

Same Portal, very similar NIL, one left the cupboard empty and took everyone with him, one inherited Travis Perry and an empty locker room mid April with half the portal already over.

2024-2025
Arkansas goes 22-14 (8-10 in the SEC), Tied for 9th in the SEC, wins 1 game in SEC tournament, Makes Sweet 16
Kentucky goes 24-12 (10-8 in the SEC), Tied for 6th in the SEC, wins 1 game in SEC tournament, Makes Sweet 16

Same, better, or worse seasons? Did someone overachieve? Did someone under-perform? Honestly, had Cal stayed at UK, would UK's record under Cal been better, worse, or exactly the same as Pope's that year? Genuinely curious.

Obviously in 2025-2026 Arkansas was better than UK (not dismissing it, just don't feel like typing it all out). The point is, that is the same time frame, in the same era, with very similar NIL bankrolls, but VASTLY different situations. You can't just take a timeframe and spit out win percentages. Coaches take over programs at completely unique points of transition. Mike Malone will be an excellent case study this season. As will watching Michigan coming off a National Title and losing their coach to the NBA. This is also in no way an endorsement of Mark Pope as being a great coach, stud recruiter, or Jesus reborn. Nor is it a knock on Cal, a praise of Cal, or crying to hire Billy D or Nate Oats or some random hot new name.

Rebuilding "usually" takes time, luck, or a CRAPTON of money. And in most cases, a little luck, a ton of money, and some time STILL doesn't work. Ask UCLA and Indiana how their rebuilds are going.
 

KyWideWes

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The same people who always go on that there is no such thing as moral victories are the first to put extra weight on margin in a loss.

He got a late start in part due to his playing career. Tenure of coaching experience is the better measure.

The weird stuff is mainly just the opinion of weird observers.

The recruiting has actually rated out pretty well and is trending upward.
The "same people" type of arguments are the laziest. Anyone that can't acknowledge that a hard fought close loss is better received than being down 30 at the half with an embarrassing effort is just being disingenuous. The number of games being down double digits is well documented. The "weird" argument is not a small faction of disgruntled fans, it was widespread across the CBB community after those early losses. His videos last month helped a lot but it is still out there and being used against us. Recruiting has gotten better but has a long way to go and that factors in how the fans view the future. Contrary to the reputation our fans don't need much to be all in. The 14-14 Pitino team was one of the most optimistic seasons I have experienced. Whether or not you can admit it he has not inspired a lot of hope. The job requires a certain presence, I hope he gets it and us where we all want the program to be.
 

UKgrad22

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LMAO WE ARE SAVED!

MeManBoy
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Regarding Nikola Kusturica.... I am positive that UK is not "out" of the race. UK has made an offer that would pay him slightly above NCAA market value for year 1 for the role he'd play - given his team wants minute restrictions and the year to focus on preparing physically and mentally for year 2. Once he opts into the contract for year 2, he'd get another payment very soon after that would make year 1 compensation the highest amount by a good bit....but he will need to commit to year 2 for that to kick in. This is because there is no way to lock a minor into an agreement past his 18th birthday without him opting into that agreement. So if he'll commit to 2 years at UK, he'll earn around 10-11 million for the 2 seaosons.... which is the highest offer he'll have into a system that is perfectly suited for him. But the negotiating is done. UK gave its highest and final offer a couple days before Dusty May went to the Mavs. But tell me, if UCLA is so enticing to him....why the wait? I mean, clearly Mick Cronin is the amazing coach he clearly wants to play for if you listen to the ******** rumors being floated. So do it man....go for it. The truth is, UK is involved and in the running, but without a guarantee of that 2nd seasons, UK doesn't really need the kid and certainly isn't going to be tricked into playing big money for a year 1 when the kid isn't gonna be here for year 2... or wants to renegotiate from the portal for a year 2. This agent knows there's no rush. They won't show up on campus for 2 months anyway, so he's got a few weeks before the time to start the F1 process is critical. If you ask me, the less you hear, the better it is for UK, but it's obviously not a sure thing. He could end up going somewhere else for year 1 and then UK would likely just recruit him out of the portal for the 2nd year when we'd really need him anyway. And that's what all the other schools also know. If you can't lock in year 2, there will be big money to pay to keep him out of the portal. Ain't nobody got time for that.
Honestly gotta give credit where credit is due with Keegan Brown. Taking the place of Pope in terms of negotiations with agents and families is huge in our pursuit of not getting ‘played’. Seems like they’re building a more cohesive unit and I feel a lot of that has to do with Keegan.
 
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TheResistance

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I have no idea who Layup Hoops are but it Seems to be connected to his European ball club or something. I Don't think we are favorites STILL, but hey maybe we still have an outside shot at Nikola.
 
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Cobb4uk

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Odd that no one ever mentions we have a 7 footer thst shoots 40% from three. I'd say there are time he should see a few minutes. At 17 years old I just don't see this youngster get very many minutes in yhe tough SEC.
 

The Ganner

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Odd that no one ever mentions we have a 7 footer thst shoots 40% from three. I'd say there are time he should see a few minutes. At 17 years old I just don't see this youngster get very many minutes in yhe tough SEC.
What 7 footer hit 40% from three?
 

MidseasonTweak

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People are sleeping on Potter. He’s 7’1 and has went from 205 to 235. He can hit the three better than most centers. Many on here have bashed him despite never watching him play.
That's nice, but we haven't seen him against high level competition and likely won't. I wouldn't mind seeing him finally in some garbage time, again, against higher level comp if we can manage to put some teams away.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

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People are sleeping on Potter. He’s 7’1 and has went from 205 to 235. He can hit the three better than most centers. Many on here have bashed him despite never watching him play.
So far this summer we have confirmation that people are sleeping on N'Diaye, Hawthorne, Kam Williams, Mason Williams, McBride, Wilkins, and now Potter.

Maybe the nickname of this team is "sleeping beauty?"
 

AJBlue

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I’ve learned these guys projecting where players are going don’t know much.
they get the info first when it’s a done deal but other than that they are guessing.
look at the nba mock drafts. Other than the top 6 or 7 picks they missed by a large margin.
if K comes great sans the 15 minute restriction and 2 year commitment great, if not we are in pretty good shape with this roster. And it looks like Pope is making progress with some HS guys for next year.
Yeah I think this is something a lot of us misunderstand. I dont think many in that field like Travis do much guessing as thats to risky for their reputation and success. What they do is just pass along the info as the hear it from sources but no matter how close the source (even family members) those things are always subject to change as circumstance change, like better offers coming in last minute etc.

But guys like Travis have t make a leap at some point ans predict something or there's no point to what they do at all! The reality is there is NEVER EVER a 100% crystal ball because humans are involved. He could have just got off the phone with the player themselves and been told yes I committing to UK and that can also change and does some times. It could happen in our own family. Pretend your own son was a 5 star and going thorugh this and tells you he's made up his mind to go somewhere then wakes up the next morning and says now I"m not sure again, or a big offer comes in the next morning - see how that works?

The point again is, these insiders always have to make an educated opinioin at some point and I think most do it based on real info they get from the folks close to the recruitment but things can still change and in todays world do more times than not. But they still have to make the leap and throw out a prediction. Of course they are guessing like all of us but it does come from what they are hearing at the time I'ms sure and not their own gut.
 

Lameguy

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Potter is likely not going to see the floor in 90 percent of our games. Moreno is a first round pick, he's going to be on the floor for 28-30 minutes a game. Franck will get the rest.
I don’t expect him to play much, but I also don’t think he’s terrible and you can’t dismiss a 7 foot guy who shoots 40% from three. If he can give you 5 minutes, I’m good with that.
 

Threedognight

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I don’t expect him to play much, but I also don’t think he’s terrible and you can’t dismiss a 7 foot guy who shoots 40% from three. If he can give you 5 minutes, I’m good with that.
If for some reason the position was needed I could see Reece as a really tall PF
 

The Ganner

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I don’t expect him to play much, but I also don’t think he’s terrible and you can’t dismiss a 7 foot guy who shoots 40% from three. If he can give you 5 minutes, I’m good with that.
Yeah I look at him as a nice-to-have emergency/practice guy. I'm not factoring him into any analysis of how good this team will be.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

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Don't remember you standing out previously. You've rapidly moved toward most insufferable poster here though.
Who knew that asking a simple question would trigger such a response. If you find that "insufferable", how do you make it through the actual stresses of real life, sir?
 
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